title: Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  In Japan, a shortage of physicians, who serve a key role in healthcare provision, has been pointed out as a major medical issue. The healthcare workforce policy planner should consider future dynamic changes in physician numbers. The purpose of this study was to propose a physician supply forecasting methodology by applying system dynamics modeling to estimate future absolute and relative numbers of physicians.
  
  
  METHODS
  We constructed a forecasting model using a system dynamics approach. Forecasting the number of physician was performed for all clinical physician and OB/GYN specialists. Moreover, we conducted evaluation of sufficiency for the number of physicians and sensitivity analysis.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  As a result, it was forecast that the number of physicians would increase during 2008-2030 and the shortage would resolve at 2026 for all clinical physicians. However, the shortage would not resolve for the period covered. This suggests a need for measures for reconsidering the allocation system of new entry physicians to resolve maldistribution between medical departments, in addition, for increasing the overall number of clinical physicians.
authors: Faculty of Health Sciences, Hokkaido University, N12W5, Kita-ku, Sapporo 060-0812, Japan. oga@hs.hokudai.ac.jp.
authors: Tomoki
authors: T
authors: Ishikawa
authors: Hisateru
authors: H
authors: Ohba
authors: Yuki
authors: Y
authors: Yokooka
authors: Kozo
authors: K
authors: Nakamura
authors: Katsuhiko
authors: K
authors: Ogasawara
mesh_terms: D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010820:Physicians / Q000600:supply & distribution* / Q000639:trends
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