title: Threshold value estimation for respirable quartz dust exposure and silicosis incidence among workers in the german porcelain industry.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To estimate a threshold value for the respirable quartz dust concentration and silicosis incidence (1/1, ILO 1980/2000) in the German porcelain worker cohort.
  
  
  METHODS
  Forty incident cases occurred among 17,144 workers. Estimation of the relationship to cumulative respirable quartz dust exposures by using Cox regression with restricted cubic splines (7 knots or less) and fractional polynomials (degrees 5 or less). Threshold estimates were obtained by subtracting candidate values from the time-dependent concentration data (setting the result to zero if negative) and recalculating cumulative exposure.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Best threshold estimate was 0.25 mg/m (95% confidence interval: 0.15 to 0.30 mg/m).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A concentration threshold for silicosis risk is plausible. A threshold Cox model fitted the data significantly better than a nonthreshold model, summarized the cohort information without a loss in extracted information and more simply than restricted cubic splines and fractional polynomials.
authors: Institute for Occupational Epidemiology and Risk Assessment of Evonik Industries AG, Essen, Germany. peter.morfeld@evonik.com
authors: Peter
authors: P
authors: Morfeld
authors: Kenneth A
authors: KA
authors: Mundt
authors: Dirk
authors: D
authors: Taeger
authors: Karlheinz
authors: K
authors: Guldner
authors: Othmar
authors: O
authors: Steinig
authors: Brian G
authors: BG
authors: Miller
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000395:Air Pollutants, Occupational / Q000032:analysis / Q000633:toxicity*; D002516:Ceramics; D004391:Dust / Q000032:analysis; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016273:Occupational Exposure / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000032:analysis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011791:Quartz / Q000032:analysis / Q000633:toxicity*; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors; D012829:Silicosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology*; D020711:Threshold Limit Values; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D000395:Air Pollutants, Occupational; D004391:Dust; D011791:Quartz