title: Determining the relative importance of soil sample locations to predict risk of child lead exposure.
abstract: Soil lead in urban neighborhoods is a known predictor of child blood lead levels. In this paper, we address the question where one ought to concentrate soil sample collection efforts to efficiently predict children at-risk for soil Pb exposure. Two extensive data sets are combined, including 5467 surface soil samples collected from 286 census tracts, and geo-referenced blood Pb data for 55,551 children in metropolitan New Orleans, USA. Random intercept least squares, random intercept logistic, and quantile regression results indicate that soils collected within 1m adjacent to residential streets most reliably predict child blood Pb outcomes in child blood Pb levels. Regression decomposition results show that residential street soils account for 39.7% of between-neighborhood explained variation, followed by busy street soils (21.97%), open space soils (20.25%), and home foundation soils (18.71%). Just as the age of housing stock is used as a statistical shortcut for child risk of exposure to lead-based paint, our results indicate that one can shortcut the characterization of child risk of exposure to neighborhood soil Pb by concentrating sampling efforts within 1m and adjacent to residential and busy streets, while significantly reducing the total costs of collection and analysis. This efficiency gain can help advance proactive upstream, preventive methods of environmental Pb discovery.
authors: Department of Economics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, 80523-1771, United States; Robert Wood Johnson Health and Society Scholar, Department of Epidemiology, Columbia University, New York, NY, 10032, United States. Electronic address: szahran@colostate.edu.
authors: Sammy
authors: S
authors: Zahran
authors: Howard W
authors: HW
authors: Mielke
authors: Shawn P
authors: SP
authors: McElmurry
authors: Gabriel M
authors: GM
authors: Filippelli
authors: Mark A S
authors: MA
authors: Laidlaw
authors: Mark P
authors: MP
authors: Taylor
mesh_terms: D002648:Child; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000032:analysis*; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D005260:Female; D006798:Housing; D006801:Humans; D007854:Lead / Q000032:analysis* / Q000097:blood*; D016018:Least-Squares Analysis; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012111:Residence Characteristics / Q000145:classification / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D012987:Soil / Q000737:chemistry / Q000145:classification*; D012989:Soil Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D014481:United States; D014505:Urban Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data
chemical_list: D012987:Soil; D012989:Soil Pollutants; D007854:Lead
keywords: Blood lead; Lead; Lead poisoning; Risk prediction; Soil lead; Soil location