title: Criteria and prediction models for mismatch repair gene mutations: a review.
abstract: One of the strongest predictors of colorectal cancer risk is carrying a germline mutation in a DNA mismatch repair (MMR) gene. Once identified, mutation carriers can be recommended for intensive screening that will substantially reduce their high colorectal cancer risk. Conversely, the relatives of carriers identified as non-carriers can be relieved of the burden of intensive screening. Criteria and prediction models that identify likely mutation carriers are needed for cost-effective, targeted, germline testing for MMR gene mutation. We reviewed 12 criteria/guidelines and 8 prediction models (Leiden, Amsterdam-plus, Amsterdam-alternative, MMRpro, PREMM1,2,6, MMRpredict, Associazione Italiana per lo studio della Familiarità ed Ereditarietà dei tumori Gastrointestinali (AIFEG) and the Myriad Genetics Prevalence table) for identifying mutation carriers. While criteria are only used to identify individuals with colorectal cancer (yes/no for screening followed by germline testing), all prediction models except MMRpredict and Myriad tables can predict the probability of carrying mutations for individuals with or without colorectal cancer. We conducted a meta-analysis of the discrimination performance of 17 studies that validated the prediction models. The pooled estimate for the area under curve was 0.80 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.88) for MMRpro, 0.81 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.88) for MMRpredict, 0.84 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.88) for PREMM, and 0.85 (95% CI 0.78 to 0.91) for Leiden model. Given the high degree of overlap in the CIs, we cannot state that one model has a higher discrimination than any of the others. Overall, the existing statistical models have been shown to be sensitive and specific (at a 5% cut-off) in predicting MMR gene mutation carriers. Future models may need to: provide prediction of PMS2 mutations, take into account a wider range of Lynch syndrome-associated cancers when assessing family history, and be applicable to all people irrespective of any cancer diagnosis.
authors: Centre for Molecular, Environmental, Genetic and Analytic Epidemiology, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
authors: Aung Ko
authors: AK
authors: Win
authors: Robert J
authors: RJ
authors: Macinnis
authors: James G
authors: JG
authors: Dowty
authors: Mark A
authors: MA
authors: Jenkins
mesh_terms: D048868:Adaptor Proteins, Signal Transducing; D003123:Colorectal Neoplasms, Hereditary Nonpolyposis / Q000235:genetics; D053843:DNA Mismatch Repair / Q000235:genetics*; D004268:DNA-Binding Proteins; D020022:Genetic Predisposition to Disease / Q000235:genetics*; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D000070957:MutL Protein Homolog 1; D051718:MutS Homolog 2 Protein; D009154:Mutation / Q000235:genetics*; D009687:Nuclear Proteins; D012306:Risk
chemical_list: D048868:Adaptor Proteins, Signal Transducing; D004268:DNA-Binding Proteins; C094443:G-T mismatch-binding protein; C501486:MLH1 protein, human; D009687:Nuclear Proteins; C497172:MSH2 protein, human; D000070957:MutL Protein Homolog 1; D051718:MutS Homolog 2 Protein
keywords: Cancer: colon; Gastroenterology; Genetic screening/counselling