title: Association with and predictive capacity of self-perceived risk of falling in recurrent falls in older people: a prospective study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Given the impact of recurrent falls in older people, risk evaluation for falling is an important part of geriatric assessment. Available clinical tools usually do not include patients' self-perceived risk of falling. The objective of this study was to evaluate association with and predictive capacity of self-perceived risk of falling in recurrent falls.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prospective cohort study. Patients attending a geriatric outpatients' clinic were recruited (Pfeiffer score <5). A baseline assessment and follow-up over 14 months was scheduled for each patient. Self-perceived risk of falling was assessed through four questions. Association with falls was evaluated through relative risk, survival curves (Kaplan-Meier), and Cox regression (recurrent falls as outcome variables). Predictive capacity was evaluated through sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values.
  
  
  RESULTS
  52 participants answered all 4 questions, and 15 participants (27.2 %) presented recurrent falls. Question 1 (Do you think you may fall in the next few months?) was associated with the occurrence of recurrent falls according to relative risk [3.88 (CI95 %:1.48-10.09)] and survival curves (log Rank, p 0.004). Such relationship is maintained over time. Cox-regression also showed significant difference in relation to the answer for question 1 and recurrent falls [hazard ratio 4.044 (CI: 1.410-11.597); p 0.009]. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (question 1) were 53.3 % (CI95 %:28.1-78.6), 84.2 % (CI95 %:72.6-95.8), 57.1 % (CI95 %:31.2-83.1), and 82.1 % (CI95 %:70.0-94.1), respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Patients' self-perceived risk of falling is related to recurrent falls amongst people with a high risk of falling and this parameter might be useful in falling risk evaluation.
authors: Fundació Privada Sant Antoni Abat (Research Unit), Consorci Sanitari del Garraf (Department of Geriatrics), C/Sant Josep 21-23, 08800, Vilanova i la Geltrú, Barcelona, Spain, cgalvez@csg.cat.
authors: César
authors: C
authors: Gálvez-Barrón
authors: María Jesús
authors: MJ
authors: Sanguino
authors: Leire
authors: L
authors: Narvaiza
authors: Federico
authors: F
authors: Cavestany
authors: Isabel
authors: I
authors: Collado
authors: Oscar
authors: O
authors: Macho
authors: María Dolores
authors: MD
authors: Dapena
authors: Alejandro
authors: A
authors: Rodríguez-Molinero
mesh_terms: D000058:Accidental Falls; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D015577:Geriatric Assessment; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012306:Risk; D018570:Risk Assessment