title: External validation of the Emergency Trauma Score for early prediction of mortality in trauma patients.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The Emergency Trauma Score has been developed for early estimation of mortality risk in adult trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score of 16 or higher. Emergency Trauma Score combines four early predictors available at the trauma resuscitation room: age, Glasgow Coma Scale, base excess, and prothrombin time. Our goal was to validate the Emergency Trauma Score in two large external cohorts. As the Injury Severity Score is not accurately known at the time patients present at the resuscitation room, we evaluated the performance of Emergency Trauma Score in all trauma patients.
  
  
  METHODS
  External validation study using data from two prospectively collected trauma registries.
  
  
  METHODS
  Two academic level 1 trauma centers.
  
  
  METHODS
  Adult patients admitted to the hospital after treatment at the trauma resuscitation room.
  
  
  METHODS
  Calibration and discrimination of the original Emergency Trauma Score were assessed within each cohort separately.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 4,418 consecutive patients were evaluated. Discrimination was good in both validation cohorts, with areas under the receiver-operating curve curves that were even higher (0.94 and 0.92, respectively) than that in the original cohort (0.83). Predicted mortality was systematically too high compared with actual mortality in patients with low-to-medium expected risk (< 25%). Calibration improved in the lower expected risk range after exclusion of patients with Injury Severity Score less than 16.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The Emergency Trauma Score model performs well in discriminating between trauma patients who will survive and who will not. If applied to all trauma patients, predicted mortality risks are too high in the low-risk category.
authors: 1Trauma Unit, Department of Surgery, Academic Medical Center, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. 2Department of Surgery, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands. 3Department of Epidemiology, Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Center Utrecht, University Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors: Pieter
authors: P
authors: Joosse
authors: Willem-Jan J
authors: WJ
authors: de Jong
authors: Johannes B
authors: JB
authors: Reitsma
authors: Klaus W
authors: KW
authors: Wendt
authors: Niels W
authors: NW
authors: Schep
authors: J Carel
authors: JC
authors: Goslings
mesh_terms: D000137:Acid-Base Imbalance / Q000401:mortality; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D005260:Female; D015600:Glasgow Coma Scale; D006801:Humans; D015601:Injury Severity Score; D008297:Male; D011517:Prothrombin Time / Q000401:mortality; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D014193:Trauma Centers; D014947:Wounds and Injuries / Q000401:mortality*