title: The expected number of background disease events during mass immunization in China.
abstract: It is critical to distinguish events that are temporarily associated with, but not caused by, vaccination from those caused by vaccination during mass immunization. We performed a literature search in China National Knowledge Infrastructure and Pubmed databases. The number of coincident events was calculated based on its incidence rate and periods after receipt of a dose of hypothesized vaccine. We included background incidences of Guillain-Barré syndrome, anaphylaxis, seizure, sudden adult death syndrome, sudden cardiac death, spontaneous abortion, and preterm labour or delivery. In a cohort of 10 million individuals, 7.71 cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome would be expected to occur within six weeks of vaccination as coincident background cases. Even for rare events, a large number of events can be expected in a short period because of the large population targeted for immunization. These findings may encourage health authorities to screen the safety of vaccines against unpredictable pathogens.
authors: School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China ; Municipal Key Laboratory of Clinical Epidemiology, Beijing, China ; School of Medical Sciences, Edith Cowan University, Perth, Australia.
authors: Youxin
authors: Y
authors: Wang
authors: Lijuan
authors: L
authors: Wu
authors: Xinwei
authors: X
authors: Yu
authors: Feifei
authors: F
authors: Zhao
authors: Alyce
authors: A
authors: Russell
authors: Manshu
authors: M
authors: Song
authors: Wei
authors: W
authors: Wang
mesh_terms: D000022:Abortion, Spontaneous / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000276:immunology; D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000707:Anaphylaxis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000276:immunology; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D016757:Death, Sudden, Cardiac / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D005260:Female; D020275:Guillain-Barre Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype / Q000276:immunology*; D007252:Influenza Vaccines / Q000009:adverse effects*; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000276:immunology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000821:virology; D008297:Male; D032541:Mass Vaccination; D007752:Obstetric Labor, Premature / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D058873:Pandemics / Q000517:prevention & control*; D011247:Pregnancy; D012640:Seizures / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D007252:Influenza Vaccines
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