title: Health care for people with dementia in 2030 - results of a multidisciplinary scenario process.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Despite extensive research funding in the field of dementia, deficits in the quality of dementia care still exist. In order to project different alternative futures of health care for people with dementia (PwD) in Germany, we have initiated a multidisciplinary scenario process (Sce-Dem).
  
  
  METHODS
  For the scenario process we used a 6-step approach: (1) identification of relevant areas of influences via literature review and internet search, (2) systematic collection of relevant influence factors and their future projections via literature review, brainstorming and consensus workshops, (3) discussion and validation of the identified key factors in a workshop with 52 multidisciplinary, experts, to clarify their characteristics and future projections, (4) combining the relevant key factors with alternative projections in a so-called consistency matrix to estimate the consistency between the selected projections, (5) generating consistent combinations of projections using software, and (6) writing scenario stories and descriptions based on the most consistent and different combinations.
  
  
  RESULTS
  As a result of the scenario process, five consistent scenarios were developed. Two of these could be described as dark scenarios with very poor prospects. A third one has been referred to as "well-meant, but badly done". Two scenarios entail mostly positive aspects but one of them has a tendency towards, a "health control" state.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The more positive scenarios provide a framework for determining relevant actions in research, society, and politics.
authors: DZNE - German Center for Neurodegenerative Diseases, Witten, Germany; Department of General Practice, Faculty of Medicine, Heinrich-Heine-University, Düsseldorf, Germany. Electronic address: horst.vollmar@med.uni-duesseldorf.de.
authors: Horst Christian
authors: HC
authors: Vollmar
authors: Chair of Innovation Economics, Berlin Institute of Technology (TU Berlin), Berlin, Germany.
authors: Kerstin
authors: K
authors: Goluchowicz
authors: Fraunhofer Institute for System- and Innovation Transfer (ISI), Karlsruhe, Germany.
authors: Bernd
authors: B
authors: Beckert
authors: Fraunhofer Institute for System- and Innovation Transfer (ISI), Karlsruhe, Germany.
authors: Ewa
authors: E
authors: Dönitz
authors: DZNE - German Center for Neurodegenerative Diseases, Witten, Germany; School of Nursing Science, Faculty of Health, Witten/Herdecke University, Witten, Germany.
authors: Sabine
authors: S
authors: Bartholomeyczik
authors: Center for integrative Medicine, Faculty of Health, Witten/Herdecke University, Herdecke, Germany.
authors: Thomas
authors: T
authors: Ostermann
authors: Indiana University Center for Aging Research, Indianapolis, IN, United States; Regenstrief Institute, Indianapolis, IN, United States.
authors: Malaz
authors: M
authors: Boustani
authors: DZNE - German Center for Neurodegenerative Diseases, Witten, Germany.
authors: Ines
authors: I
authors: Buscher
mesh_terms: D003695:Delivery of Health Care / Q000592:standards*; D003704:Dementia / Q000628:therapy*; D005858:Germany; D006285:Health Planning; D006291:Health Policy; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand; D006801:Humans; D011787:Quality of Health Care
keywords: Alzheimer's disease; Dementia; Foresight; Health services research; Scenario approach