title: [Validity of risk scores to predict type 2 diabetes in the Dutch population].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To validate risk scores to predict occurrence of type 2 diabetes in the Dutch population.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prospective cohort study.
  
  
  METHODS
  Twelve basic risk scores and 13 extensive risk scores with biomarkers were used to predict the risk of developing type 2 diabetes during 7.5 years in a prospective cohort of 38,379 Dutch men and women. Occurrence of diabetes was documented through repeated questionnaires and validated against medical records. The capacity of the risk scores to correctly identify those at high risk of developing diabetes was determined using the C-statistic. The capacity of the risk scores to correctly quantify the absolute risk of diabetes was determined by testing the difference between the predicted and observed risk in the population.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The capacity of basic risk scores to identify those at high risk of diabetes was good, with C-statistics ranging from 0.74 (95%-CI: 0.73-0.75) to 0.84 (0.82-0.85). The extended risk scores were very capable of identifying those at high risk of diabetes, with C-statistics ranging from 0.81 (0.80-0.83) to 0.93 (0.92-0.94). Most risk scores, however, were unable to correctly quantify the absolute risk of diabetes; the risk was usually overestimated. Only the basic KORA model correctly quantified the risk in this Dutch population.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In the Dutch population, risk scores to predict the occurrence of type 2 diabetes are very capable of identifying those at high risk. Extension with biomarkers improves this capacity. Quantification of the absolute risk of diabetes was insufficient in most risk scores.
authors.affiliation: *Dit onderzoek werd eerder gepubliceerd in British Medical Journal (epub 18 september 2012)met als titel 'Prediction models for risk of developing type 2 diabetes: systematic literature search and independent external validation study'. Afgedrukt met toestemming.
authors.forename: Joline W J
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Beulens
authors.forename: Ali
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Abbasi
authors.forename: Linda M
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Peelen
authors.forename: Annemieke  M W
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Spijkerman
authors.forename: Daphne L
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: van der A
authors.forename: Eva
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Corpeleijn
authors.forename: Stephan J L
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Bakker
authors.forename: Yvonne T
authors.initials: YT
authors.lastname: van der Schouw
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000032:analysis; D015992:Body Mass Index; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000453:epidemiology*; D004032:Diet; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008019:Life Style; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000592:standards*; D012307:Risk Factors; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers