title: Kernel Averaged Predictors for Spatio-Temporal Regression Models.
abstract: In applications where covariates and responses are observed across space and time, a common goal is to quantify the effect of a change in the covariates on the response while adequately accounting for the spatio-temporal structure of the observations. The most common approach for building such a model is to confine the relationship between a covariate and response variable to a single spatio-temporal location. However, oftentimes the relationship between the response and predictors may extend across space and time. In other words, the response may be affected by levels of predictors in spatio-temporal proximity to the response location. Here, a flexible modeling framework is proposed to capture such spatial and temporal lagged effects between a predictor and a response. Specifically, kernel functions are used to weight a spatio-temporal covariate surface in a regression model for the response. The kernels are assumed to be parametric and non-stationary with the data informing the parameter values of the kernel. The methodology is illustrated on simulated data as well as a physical data set of ozone concentrations to be explained by temperature.
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistical Science, Duke University, Box 90251, Durham, NC 27708-0251 ( heaton@ucar.edu ; phone: 303-497-2884).
authors.forename: Matthew J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Heaton
authors.forename: Alan E
authors.initials: AE
authors.lastname: Gelfand
keywords: Distributed lag; Gaussian process; Ozone; Stochastic integral