title: Epidemiological analysis of spatially misaligned data: a case of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus outbreak in Nigeria.
abstract: This research is focused on the epidemiological analysis of the transmission of the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus outbreak in Nigeria. The data included 145 outbreaks together with the locations of the infected farms and the date of confirmation of infection. In order to investigate the environmental conditions that favoured the transmission and spread of the virus, weather stations were realigned with the locations of the infected farms. The spatial Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for complete spatial randomness rejects the null hypothesis of constant intensity (P < 0·0001). Preliminary exploratory analysis showed an increase in the incidence of H5N1 virus at farms located at high altitude. Results from the Poisson log-linear conditional intensity function identified temperature (-0·9601) and wind speed (0·6239) as the ecological factors that influence the intensity of transmission of the H5N1 virus. The model also includes distance from the first outbreak (-0·9175) with an Akaike's Information Criterion of -103·87. Our analysis using a point process model showed that geographical heterogeneity, seasonal effects, temperature, wind as well as proximity to the first outbreak are very important components of spread and transmission of HPAI H5N1.
authors.affiliation: Department of Science and Mathematics, American University of Afghanistan, Kabul.
authors.forename: O A
authors.initials: OA
authors.lastname: Adegboye
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics and Population Studies, University of the Western Cape, South Africa.
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Kotze
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary; D053124:Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D005585:Influenza in Birds / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009549:Nigeria / Q000453:epidemiology; D011200:Poultry; D012307:Risk Factors; D062206:Spatial Analysis; D014887:Weather