title: Assessment of climate change impact on the fates of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the multimedia environment based on model prediction.
abstract: The objective was to quantitatively understand the impacts of climate change (CC) under the A1B scenario on the contamination levels of 11 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) from pyrogenic sources in the environmental media based on model prediction. To predict the impacts of CC in South Korea, a revised version of KoEFT-PBTs, a dynamic multimedia model for persistent organic pollutants in South Korea, was used. Simulations were conducted for the period from 2000 to 2049 under the A1B scenario with the emission data for 2009 and the results for Seoul and Kangwon were compared to those under no climate change (NCC) scenario. Due to CC, the average of annual or monthly average concentration changes within a factor of two for the PAHs in air, soil and water. Time dependent comparison indicates that the maximum increase induced by CC in the monthly average concentration ranges from 10 to 10(2) in air and water. Change in advective flux due to wind speed difference between A1B and NCC dictates the change of the atmospheric PAHs levels while wet particle deposition due to rain rate difference contributes to some extent to the change of 5 and 6 ring PAHs. Whether the concentration change is positive or not depends primarily on the emission strength of internal sources relative to those in surrounding areas. The CC induced changes in atmospheric depositions and degradation rate in soil play a leading role in the change of soil concentration. In water, runoff and degradation are the key processes to the CC induced concentration change. Both in soil and water, the relative importance of individual key processes varies with PAHs. The difference between the two scenarios in wind speed and in rain rate shows stronger correlations with the concentration change than the temperature change.
authors.affiliation: Environmental Planning Institute, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Juan Juan
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Cai
authors.affiliation: Environmental Planning Institute, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Jee Hey
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Song
authors.affiliation: Environmental Planning Institute, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: Yunah
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Environmental Planning Institute, Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-742, Republic of Korea. Electronic address: leeds@snu.ac.kr.
authors.forename: Dong Soo
authors.initials: DS
authors.lastname: Lee
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D004785:Environmental Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D008956:Models, Chemical; D011084:Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons / Q000032:analysis*; D011891:Rain; D056910:Republic of Korea; D012621:Seasons; D012987:Soil; D014919:Wind
chemical_list: D004785:Environmental Pollutants; D011084:Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons; D012987:Soil
keywords: Climate change impact; Environmental fates and levels; Multimedia model; PAHs