title: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach for contaminated sites management.
abstract: A dynamic multimedia fuzzy-stochastic integrated environmental risk assessment approach was developed for contaminated sites management. The contaminant concentrations were simulated by a validated interval dynamic multimedia fugacity model, and different guideline values for the same contaminant were represented as a fuzzy environmental guideline. Then, the probability of violating environmental guideline (Pv) can be determined by comparison between the modeled concentrations and the fuzzy environmental guideline, and the constructed relationship between the Pvs and environmental risk levels was used to assess the environmental risk level. The developed approach was applied to assess the integrated environmental risk at a case study site in China, simulated from 1985 to 2020. Four scenarios were analyzed, including "residential land" and "industrial land" environmental guidelines under "strict" and "loose" strictness. It was found that PAH concentrations will increase steadily over time, with soil found to be the dominant sink. Source emission in soil was the leading input and atmospheric sedimentation was the dominant transfer process. The integrated environmental risks primarily resulted from petroleum spills and coke ovens, while the soil environmental risks came from coal combustion. The developed approach offers an effective tool for quantifying variability and uncertainty in the dynamic multimedia integrated environmental risk assessment and the contaminated site management.
authors.affiliation: Resources and Environmental Research Academy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China.
authors.forename: Yan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hu
authors.forename: Jing-Ya
authors.initials: JY
authors.lastname: Wen
authors.forename: Xiao-Li
authors.initials: XL
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Da-Zhou
authors.initials: DZ
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Yu
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Li
mesh_terms: D002681:China; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000032:analysis; D004785:Environmental Pollutants / Q000032:analysis; D017143:Fuzzy Logic; D064371:Hazardous Waste Sites; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011084:Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons / Q000032:analysis; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D035501:Uncertainty
chemical_list: D004785:Environmental Pollutants; D011084:Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons
keywords: Contaminated sites management; Dynamic trend; Environmental risk assessment; Multimedia environments; Uncertainty