title: Dynamic interactions between hydrogeological and exposure parameters in daily dose prediction under uncertainty and temporal variability.
abstract: We study the time dependent interaction between hydrogeological and exposure parameters in daily dose predictions due to exposure of humans to groundwater contamination. Dose predictions are treated stochastically to account for an incomplete hydrogeological and geochemical field characterization, and an incomplete knowledge of the physiological response. We used a nested Monte Carlo framework to account for uncertainty and variability arising from both hydrogeological and exposure variables. Our interest is in the temporal dynamics of the total dose and their effects on parametric uncertainty reduction. We illustrate the approach to a HCH (lindane) pollution problem at the Ebro River, Spain. The temporal distribution of lindane in the river water can have a strong impact in the evaluation of risk. The total dose displays a non-linear effect on different population cohorts, indicating the need to account for population variability. We then expand the concept of Comparative Information Yield Curves developed earlier (see de Barros et al. [29]) to evaluate parametric uncertainty reduction under temporally variable exposure dose. Results show that the importance of parametric uncertainty reduction varies according to the temporal dynamics of the lindane plume. The approach could be used for any chemical to aid decision makers to better allocate resources towards reducing uncertainty.
authors.affiliation: Department of Chemical Engineering, Rovira i Virgili University, Tarragona 43007, Spain. Electronic address: vikas.kumar@urv.cat.
authors.forename: Vikas
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Kumar
authors.forename: Felipe P J
authors.initials: FP
authors.lastname: de Barros
authors.forename: Marta
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Schuhmacher
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Fernàndez-Garcia
authors.forename: Xavier
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Sanchez-Vila
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000032:analysis*; D055593:Geological Phenomena; D060587:Groundwater / Q000032:analysis*; D001556:Hexachlorocyclohexane / Q000032:analysis; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D010575:Pesticides / Q000032:analysis; D018570:Risk Assessment; D045483:Rivers; D013030:Spain; D013997:Time Factors; D035501:Uncertainty; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D010575:Pesticides; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical; D001556:Hexachlorocyclohexane
keywords: Comparative Information Yield Curves; Groundwater contamination temporal dynamics; Lindane; Monte Carlo; Parameter sensitivity; Temporally variable exposure dose