title: Influenza a virus migration and persistence in North American wild birds.
abstract: Wild birds have been implicated in the emergence of human and livestock influenza. The successful prediction of viral spread and disease emergence, as well as formulation of preparedness plans have been hampered by a critical lack of knowledge of viral movements between different host populations. The patterns of viral spread and subsequent risk posed by wild bird viruses therefore remain unpredictable. Here we analyze genomic data, including 287 newly sequenced avian influenza A virus (AIV) samples isolated over a 34-year period of continuous systematic surveillance of North American migratory birds. We use a Bayesian statistical framework to test hypotheses of viral migration, population structure and patterns of genetic reassortment. Our results reveal that despite the high prevalence of Charadriiformes infected in Delaware Bay this host population does not appear to significantly contribute to the North American AIV diversity sampled in Anseriformes. In contrast, influenza viruses sampled from Anseriformes in Alberta are representative of the AIV diversity circulating in North American Anseriformes. While AIV may be restricted to specific migratory flyways over short time frames, our large-scale analysis showed that the long-term persistence of AIV was independent of bird flyways with migration between populations throughout North America. Analysis of long-term surveillance data provides vital insights to develop appropriately informed predictive models critical for pandemic preparedness and livestock protection.
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Virus Evolution, Program in Emerging Infectious Diseases, Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, Singapore.
authors.forename: Justin
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bahl
authors.forename: Scott
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Krauss
authors.forename: Denise
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Kühnert
authors.forename: Mathieu
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Fourment
authors.forename: Garnet
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Raven
authors.forename: S Paul
authors.initials: SP
authors.lastname: Pryor
authors.forename: Lawrence J
authors.initials: LJ
authors.lastname: Niles
authors.forename: Angela
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Danner
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Walker
authors.forename: Ian H
authors.initials: IH
authors.lastname: Mendenhall
authors.forename: Yvonne C F
authors.initials: YC
authors.lastname: Su
authors.forename: Vivien G
authors.initials: VG
authors.lastname: Dugan
authors.forename: Rebecca A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Halpin
authors.forename: Timothy B
authors.initials: TB
authors.lastname: Stockwell
authors.forename: Richard J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Webby
authors.forename: David E
authors.initials: DE
authors.lastname: Wentworth
authors.forename: Alexei J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Drummond
authors.forename: Gavin J D
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: Robert G
authors.initials: RG
authors.lastname: Webster
mesh_terms: D025041:Animal Migration; D000818:Animals; D046091:Charadriiformes / Q000821:virology*; D006801:Humans; D009980:Influenza A virus; D005585:Influenza in Birds / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D008954:Models, Biological; D009656:North America / Q000453:epidemiology