title: Extension and verification of the SEIR model on the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in Japan.
abstract: In order to understand the evolution of the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic within local regions of Japan, we studied the significance of regional migration between these regions. For this purpose, we have employed an extended SEIR model to describe the immigration of infected people and the stochastic variation of the infectious efficiency. We then applied a data assimilation technique in order to study how the agreement of the simulation results with the observed data depends on the presence/absence of immigration and the degree of variation of the infectious efficiency. Reproducibility is evaluated by log-likelihood values. The log-likelihood does not indicate the significance of immigration. Although there are multiple waves in the time course of the number of reported infected individuals, these waves could be explained by the stochastic nature of infectious events.
authors.affiliation: The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, 10-3 Midoricho, Tachikawa, Tokyo 190-8562, Japan. Electronic address: saitohm@ism.ac.jp.
authors.forename: Masaya M
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Saito
authors.forename: Seiya
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Imoto
authors.forename: Rui
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Yamaguchi
authors.forename: Hiroki
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Sato
authors.forename: Haruka
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Nakada
authors.forename: Masahiro
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kami
authors.forename: Satoru
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Miyano
authors.forename: Tomoyuki
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Higuchi
mesh_terms: D006801:Humans; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype / Q000472:pathogenicity*; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology*; D007564:Japan; D015233:Models, Statistical; D058873:Pandemics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
keywords: Data assimilation; Influenza pandemic simulation; SEIR model