title: Movements of wild ruddy shelducks in the Central Asian Flyway and their spatial relationship to outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1.
abstract: Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 remains a serious concern for both poultry and human health. Wild waterfowl are considered to be the reservoir for low pathogenic avian influenza viruses; however, relatively little is known about their movement ecology in regions where HPAI H5N1 outbreaks regularly occur. We studied movements of the ruddy shelduck (Tadorna ferruginea), a wild migratory waterfowl species that was infected in the 2005 Qinghai Lake outbreak. We defined their migration with Brownian Bridge utilization distribution models and their breeding and wintering grounds with fixed kernel home ranges. We correlated their movements with HPAI H5N1 outbreaks, poultry density, land cover, and latitude in the Central Asian Flyway. Our Akaike Information Criterion analysis indicated that outbreaks were correlated with land cover, latitude, and poultry density. Although shelduck movements were included in the top two models, they were not a top parameter selected in AICc stepwise regression results. However, timing of outbreaks suggested that outbreaks in the flyway began during the winter in poultry with spillover to wild birds during the spring migration. Thus, studies of the movement ecology of wild birds in areas with persistent HPAI H5N1 outbreaks may contribute to understanding their role in transmission of this disease.
authors.affiliation: San Francisco Bay Estuary Field Station, Western Ecological Research Center, U.S. Geological Survey, 505 Azuar Drive, Vallejo, CA 94592, USA. john_takekawa@usgs.gov
authors.forename: John Y
authors.initials: JY
authors.lastname: Takekawa
authors.forename: Diann J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Prosser
authors.forename: Bridget M
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Collins
authors.forename: David C
authors.initials: DC
authors.lastname: Douglas
authors.forename: William M
authors.initials: WM
authors.lastname: Perry
authors.forename: Baoping
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Yan
authors.forename: Luo
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Ze
authors.forename: Yuansheng
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hou
authors.forename: Fumin
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Lei
authors.forename: Tianxian
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Yongdong
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Scott H
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Newman
mesh_terms: D025041:Animal Migration; D000818:Animals; D000835:Animals, Wild / Q000821:virology; D046090:Anseriformes / Q000821:virology; D001208:Asia / Q000453:epidemiology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000662:veterinary*; D053124:Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype / Q000235:genetics / Q000302:isolation & purification* / Q000502:physiology; D005585:Influenza in Birds / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D011200:Poultry / Q000821:virology; D011201:Poultry Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology
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