title: [Evolution of residual risk for HIV, HCV and HBV, from 1999 to 2010, in blood donations of the Centro Hospitalar S. João, EPE, Porto, Portugal].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Monitoring the residual risk of transfusion-transmitted viral infections is important to evaluate the improvement achieved in the blood donation safety and to adopt policies to reduce risks. The present study calculates the incidence of the key infectious diseases, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) as well as the residual risk of transfusion-transmitted viral infections, during twelve years, 1999 through 2010. Data were analyzed over 3 periods of 4 years (1999-2002, 2003-2006 and 2007-2010). The risk estimates were compared to those previously obtained for blood donations occurred between 1991 and 1998.
  
  
  METHODS
  The study included 209 640 blood donations, from 42 634 regular, volunteers and unpaid donors. The residual risk of transfusion-transmitted infection per million donations was calculated, for each virus, through mathematical model "Incidence rate/window period", described by Schreiber et al. All donations were screened according to Portuguese legislation. In January 2001, the nucleic acid testing in minipool was implemented on all blood donations, for screening simultaneously HIV-1 and HCV ribonucleic acid (RNA) (Cobas Amplicor Ampliscreen-Roche©). This test was replaced, in January 2007, by the simultaneous screening of HBV deoxyribonucleic acid, HCV RNA and HIV-1/HIV-2 RNA, in minipool (Cobas Taqscreen MPX Test-Roche©).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The residual risk of transmitting viral infections during the transfusion of blood components is very small and has declined over the years. After the implementation of the nucleic acid testing in minipool for the three viruses, the risk of giving blood during an infectious window period was estimated as follows: for human immunodeficiency virus, 1 in 1.67 million, for hepatitis C virus 1 in 3.33 million and for hepatitis B virus 1 in 526 000.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  During the 12 years under study, we found a decrease in residual risk for the three viruses, by a factor around five for human immunodeficiency virus and hepatitis B virus, and 32 for hepatitis C virus. If we compare the estimates previously calculated for 1991-1998 period to 2007-2010 period (over 20 years), the decrease is still more relevant with a residual risk of human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus respectively 19-fold, 6-fold and 54-fold lower.
authors.affiliation: Serviço de Imuno-hemoterapia. Centro Hospitalar S. João. Porto. Portugal.. mctsd.tk@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Carmo
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Koch
authors.forename: Fernando
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Araújo
mesh_terms: D001782:Blood Donors; D058731:Blood Safety; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D006509:Hepatitis B / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D006526:Hepatitis C / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D006761:Hospitals; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D011174:Portugal / Q000453:epidemiology; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors; D065227:Transfusion Reaction