title: Predictive modeling of addiction lapses in a mobile health application.
abstract: The chronically relapsing nature of alcoholism leads to substantial personal, family, and societal costs. Addiction-comprehensive health enhancement support system (A-CHESS) is a smartphone application that aims to reduce relapse. To offer targeted support to patients who are at risk of lapses within the coming week, a Bayesian network model to predict such events was constructed using responses on 2,934 weekly surveys (called the Weekly Check-in) from 152 alcohol-dependent individuals who recently completed residential treatment. The Weekly Check-in is a self-monitoring service, provided in A-CHESS, to track patients' recovery progress. The model showed good predictability, with the area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.829 in the 10-fold cross-validation and 0.912 in the external validation. The sensitivity/specificity table assists the tradeoff decisions necessary to apply the model in practice. This study moves us closer to the goal of providing lapse prediction so that patients might receive more targeted and timely support.
authors.affiliation: Center for Health Enhancement Systems Studies, College of Engineering, University of Wisconsin - Madison, 1513 University Ave., Madison, WI 53706, USA. Electronic address: chih@uwalumni.com.
authors.forename: Ming-Yuan
authors.initials: MY
authors.lastname: Chih
authors.forename: Timothy
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Patton
authors.forename: Fiona M
authors.initials: FM
authors.lastname: McTavish
authors.forename: Andrew J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Isham
authors.forename: Chris L
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: Judkins-Fisher
authors.forename: Amy K
authors.initials: AK
authors.lastname: Atwood
authors.forename: David H
authors.initials: DH
authors.lastname: Gustafson
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000534:rehabilitation*; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D040421:Cell Phone; D003657:Decision Making; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D063731:Mobile Applications; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012372:ROC Curve; D055502:Secondary Prevention; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Alcoholism; Lapse prediction; Machine learning; Relapse; mHealth
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