title: Predictors of favourable outcome in inflammatory Crohn's disease. A retrospective observational study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  No studies have specifically searched for predictors of a favourable outcome that would allow a conservative therapeutic approach in adult Crohn's disease (CD).
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To identify predictors of a favourable disease course over time at CD diagnosis.
  
  
  METHODS
  We identified and included all patients diagnosed with CD between January 1994 and December 2003, who had CD with an inflammatory pattern and no perianal disease at diagnosis, and who were followed up for at least 5 years. Clinical and therapeutic features until December 2008 and losses to follow-up were identified. We defined a favourable outcome as the absence of stricturing and penetrating complications of the disease (including perianal disease), together with the absence of need for anti-TNF therapy or resectional surgery during follow up.
  
  
  RESULTS
  One hundred and forty-five patients were included and followed up for a median of 96 months (IQR, 79-140). At diagnosis, location was ileal in 39%, colonic in 28%, and ileocolonic in 32%; 50% of the patients were active smokers, and 41% used immunomodulators. Eighty-two patients (57%) met the criteria for a favourable outcome at the end of follow-up. The only factor associated with a favourable outcome was isolated colonic involvement (P=0.022), with 73% of these patients meeting the criteria for a favourable outcome.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A favourable outcome of initially uncomplicated CD is not easily predicted at disease diagnosis by means of clinical or epidemiologic factors. Nevertheless, patients with isolated colonic disease are less likely to have an aggressive course.
authors.affiliation: Hospital Universitari Germans Trias i Pujol, Badalona, Barcelona, Spain; Centro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Enfermedades Hepáticas y Digestivas (CIBERehd), Spain.
authors.forename: Yamile
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zabana
authors.forename: Esther
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Garcia-Planella
authors.forename: Manuel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: van Domselaar
authors.forename: Míriam
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Mañosa
authors.forename: Jordi
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Gordillo
authors.forename: Antonio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: López-Sanromán
authors.forename: Eduard
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Cabré
authors.forename: Eugeni
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Domènech
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D003424:Crohn Disease / Q000188:drug therapy*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Crohn's disease; Disease course; Enfermedad de Crohn; Evolución de la enfermedad; Factores predictivos; Outcome; Predictive factors; Resultado