title: Below replacement fertility preferences in Shanghai.
abstract: China has joined the group of low-fertility countries; it has a TFR somewhere in the range of 1.4 to 1.6. Much speculation about China's future fertility depends on whether individual's fertility intentions and preferences are much higher than the state's fertility goals. If so, then a relaxation of family planning restrictions could lead to a substantial fertility increase. We directly ask a probability sample of Shanghai registered residents and migrants whether a policy relaxation would lead them to have additional children. Our results show that small families (one or two children) are intended in this urban setting. If family planning policy were relaxed, a relatively small fraction (fewer than 14%) reports that they would revise their intentions upward. Even this modest increase (as much as 10%) is suspect because factors that can deflate fertility relative to intentions are likely more powerful than the inflationary ones (in Shanghai). These empirical findings help ground speculations on the future of fertility in the hypothetical absence of policy constraints.
authors.affiliation: Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke Population Research Institute and Duke Institute of Global Health, Duke University.
authors.forename: M Giovanna
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Merli
authors.forename: S Philip
authors.initials: SP
authors.lastname: Morgan
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