title: Why abundant tropical tree species are phylogenetically old.
abstract: Neutral models of species diversity predict patterns of abundance for communities in which all individuals are ecologically equivalent. These models were originally developed for Panamanian trees and successfully reproduce observed distributions of abundance. Neutral models also make macroevolutionary predictions that have rarely been evaluated or tested. Here we show that neutral models predict a humped or flat relationship between species age and population size. In contrast, ages and abundances of tree species in the Panamanian Canal watershed are found to be positively correlated, which falsifies the models. Speciation rates vary among phylogenetic lineages and are partially heritable from mother to daughter species. Variable speciation rates in an otherwise neutral model lead to a demographic advantage for species with low speciation rate. This demographic advantage results in a positive correlation between species age and abundance, as found in the Panamanian tropical forest community.
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, and Key Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes of the Ministry of Education, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China.
authors.forename: Shaopeng
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Anping
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Jingyun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Fang
authors.forename: Stephen W
authors.initials: SW
authors.lastname: Pacala
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D044822:Biodiversity; D003198:Computer Simulation; D008954:Models, Biological; D010176:Panama; D010802:Phylogeny; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013045:Species Specificity; D014197:Trees / Q000235:genetics*; D014329:Tropical Climate
keywords: Barro Colorado Island (BCI); niche hypothesis; phylogenetic age; phylogeny
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