title: Prediction of conversion from mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer disease based on bayesian data mining with ensemble learning.
abstract: Prediction of disease progress is of great importance to Alzheimer disease (AD) researchers and clinicians. Previous attempts at constructing predictive models have been hindered by undersampling, and restriction to linear associations among variables, among other problems. To address these problems, we propose a novel Bayesian data-mining method called Bayesian Outcome Prediction with Ensemble Learning (BOPEL). BOPEL uses a Bayesian-network representation with boosting, to allow the detection of nonlinear multivariate associations, and incorporates resampling-based feature selection to prevent over-fitting caused by undersampling. We demonstrate the use of this approach in predicting conversion to AD in individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), based on structural magnetic-resonance and magnetic-resonance- spectroscopy data. This study includes 26 subjects with amnestic MCI: the converter group (n = 8) met MCI criteria at baseline, but converted to AD within five years, whereas the non-converter group (n = 18) met MCI criteria at baseline and at follow-up. We found that BOPEL accurately differentiates MCI converters from non-converters, based on the baseline volumes of the left hippocampus, the banks of the right superior temporal sulcus, the right entorhinal cortex, the left lingual gyrus, and the rostral aspect of the left middle frontal gyrus. Prediction accuracy was 0.81, sensitivity was 0.63 and specificity was 0.89. We validated the generated predictive model with an independent data set constructed from the Alzheimer Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database, and again found high predictive accuracy (0.75).
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiology, University of Pennsylvania; Philadelphia, PA, USA - rong.chen@uphs.upenn.edu.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Young
authors.forename: L L
authors.initials: LL
authors.lastname: Chao
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Miller
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Yaffe
authors.forename: M W
authors.initials: MW
authors.lastname: Weiner
authors.forename: E H
authors.initials: EH
authors.lastname: Herskovits
references.citation: J Psychiatr Res. 1975 Nov;12(3):189-98
references.pmid: 1202204
references.citation: Ann Neurol. 2000 Apr;47(4):430-9
references.pmid: 10762153
references.citation: Neurology. 1988 Mar;38(3):359-64
references.pmid: 3347338
references.citation: IEEE Trans Pattern Anal Mach Intell. 2005 Jun;27(6):835-50
references.pmid: 15943417
references.citation: Brain. 2008 Mar;131(Pt 3):665-80
references.pmid: 18263627
references.citation: Neurocase. 2005 Feb;11(1):14-25
references.pmid: 15804920
references.citation: Int J Geriatr Psychiatry. 2009 Oct;24(10):1094-100
references.pmid: 19280679
references.citation: Cereb Cortex. 2004 Jan;14(1):11-22
references.pmid: 14654453
references.citation: N Engl J Med. 2006 Dec 21;355(25):2652-63
references.pmid: 17182990
references.citation: Neurology. 2000 Jul 25;55(2):210-7
references.pmid: 10908893
references.citation: CNS Spectr. 2008 Jan;13(1):45-53
references.pmid: 18204414
references.citation: Brain Res. 2004 Apr 2;1003(1-2):26-35
references.pmid: 15019560
references.citation: Neuroimage. 1999 Feb;9(2):195-207
references.pmid: 9931269
references.citation: J Magn Reson. 2007 Apr;185(2):291-9
references.pmid: 17257868
references.citation: J Gerontol. 1982 May;37(3):323-9
references.pmid: 7069156
references.citation: Neuroimage. 2010 Aug 1;52(1):234-44
references.pmid: 20382237
references.citation: Neurology. 2007 Mar 13;68(11):828-36
references.pmid: 17353470
references.citation: Nat Rev Drug Discov. 2003 Aug;2(8):646-53
references.pmid: 12904814
references.citation: Neuroimage. 2011 May 15;56(2):766-81
references.pmid: 20542124
references.citation: J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry. 2009 Sep;80(9):966-75
references.pmid: 19465413
references.citation: Neuroimage. 2005 Oct 1;27(4):934-46
references.pmid: 15979341
references.citation: Neurology. 2002 Mar 26;58(6):928-35
references.pmid: 11914410
references.citation: Neurology. 2004 Jul 13;63(1):94-100
references.pmid: 15249617
references.citation: J Magn Reson Imaging. 2008 Apr;27(4):685-91
references.pmid: 18302232
references.citation: Neuroimage. 1999 Feb;9(2):179-94
references.pmid: 9931268
references.citation: Neurology. 2008 Feb 12;70(7):512-20
references.pmid: 17898323
references.citation: Neuroimage. 2006 Jul 1;31(3):968-80
references.pmid: 16530430
references.citation: Behav Brain Res. 1995 Mar;67(2):241-53
references.pmid: 7779295
references.citation: Neurology. 1999 Apr 22;52(7):1397-403
references.pmid: 10227624
references.citation: Alzheimer Dis Assoc Disord. 2010 Jan-Mar;24(1):19-27
references.pmid: 20220321
references.citation: Neurobiol Aging. 2001 Sep-Oct;22(5):747-54
references.pmid: 11705634
references.citation: Curr Alzheimer Res. 2006 Apr;3(2):161-70
references.pmid: 16611017
references.citation: Neurobiol Aging. 2011 Dec;32(12):2322.e19-27
references.pmid: 20594615
references.citation: Neuroradiology. 2008 Jul;50(7):569-81
references.pmid: 18414838