title: Association between hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome epidemic and climate factors in Heilongjiang Province, China.
abstract: The purpose of this study was to quantify the relationship between climate variation and transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Heilongjiang Province, a highly endemic area for HFRS in China. Monthly notified HFRS cases and climatic data for 2001-2009 in Heilongjiang Province were collected. Using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model, we found that relative humidity with a one-month lag (β = -0.010, P = 0.003) and a three-month lag (β = 0.008, P = 0.003), maximum temperature with a two-month lag (β = 0.082, P = 0.028), and southern oscillation index with a two-month lag (β = -0.048, P = 0.019) were significantly associated with HFRS transmission. Our study also showed that predicted values expected under the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model were highly consistent with observed values (Adjusted R(2) = 83%, root mean squared error = 108). Thus, findings may help add to the knowledge gap of the role of climate factors in HFRS transmission in China and also assist national local health authorities in the development/refinement of a better strategy to prevent HFRS transmission.
authors.affiliation: Department of Health Statistics, College of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China; Institute of Disease Control and Prevention of PLA, Beijing, China; School of Population Health, Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia; Tianjin Medical University General Hospital, Tianjin, China; Nankai University, Tianjin, China.
authors.forename: Chang-Ping
authors.initials: CP
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Zhuang
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Cui
authors.forename: Shen-Long
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Ricardo J Soares
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Magalhaes
authors.forename: Bao-Long
authors.initials: BL
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Cui
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Hai-Long
authors.initials: HL
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.forename: Cheng-Yi
authors.initials: CY
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Liu-Yu
authors.initials: LY
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.forename: Jun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Ma
authors.forename: Wen-Yi
authors.initials: WY
authors.lastname: Zhang
mesh_terms: D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D019353:Endemic Diseases; D006476:Orthohantavirus / Q000502:physiology; D006480:Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D006801:Humans; D006813:Humidity; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature
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