title: A model of the relationship between weedy rice seed-bank dynamics and rice-crop infestation and damage in Jiangsu Province, China.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  A heavy infestation of weedy rice leading to no harvested rice has never been predicted in China due to a lack of knowledge about the weedy rice seed bank. We studied the seed-bank dynamics of weedy rice for three consecutive years and analyzed the relationship between seed-bank density and population density in order to predict future weedy rice infestations of direct-seeded rice at six sites along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province, China.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The seed-bank density of weedy rice in all six sites displayed an increasing trend with seasonal fluctuations. Weedy rice seeds found in the 0-10 cm soil layer contributed most to seedling emergence. An exponential curve expressed the relationship between cultivated rice yield loss and adult weedy rice density. Based on data collected during the weedy rice life-cycle, a semi-empirical mathematic model was developed that fits well with the experimental data in a way that could be used to predict seed-bank dynamics.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  By integrating the semi-empirical model and the exponential curve, weedy rice infestation levels and crop losses can be predicted based on the seed-bank dynamics so that a practical control can be adopted before rice planting.
authors.affiliation: Weed Research Laboratory, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing, China.
authors.forename: Zheng
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Weimin
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Dai
authors.forename: Xiaoling
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Song
authors.forename: Sheng
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Qiang
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D002681:China; D018556:Crops, Agricultural / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D012275:Oryza / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*; D057685:Plant Weeds / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012639:Seeds / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*
keywords: damage; direct-seeded rice; mathematic model; prediction; seed bank; weedy rice