[Development of a risk-mortality index for elderly patients discharged from a geriatric acute care unit].
OBJECTIVE
To identify predictive factors for 6 and 12-months mortality after discharge from a geriatric acute care unit, and from these, derive a mortality-risk index.


METHODS
Prospective cohort study will be conducted on patients over 70 years-old admitted to a geriatric acute care unit and survived to hospital discharge. The main outcome measure will be mortality at 6 months and 12 months after discharge. Independent variables include sociodemographics, functional status, comorbidities, and clinical and laboratory characteristics. Risk factors associated with mortality will be constructed using multivariate logistic regression models. To build the mortality index, points will be assigned to each risk factor by dividing each beta coefficient in the logistic model by the lowest beta coefficient. A score will be assigned to each subject by adding up the points for each risk factor present in the model. The predictive accuracy of the model will be determined by comparing the predicted versus observed mortality in the study population and calculating the area under the ROC curves in both populations.


CONCLUSIONS
The risk-mortality index developed would allow an easy estimate to be made of individual risk of death at 6 months and 12 months after discharge from a geriatric acute care unit, with the purpose of establishing care plans and individualising treatment, according to real objectives.
Servicio de Geriatría, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, España.
Selene
S
Soria
Servicio de Geriatría, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, España.
Eva
E
Gallego
Servicio de Geriatría, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, España.
Maite
M
Vidan
Servicio de Geriatría, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, España.
Javier
J
Ortiz
Servicio de Geriatría, Hospital General Universitario Gregorio Marañón, Madrid, España. Electronic address: joseantonio.serra@salud.madrid.org.
José Antonio
JA
Serra-Rexach
D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D015577:Geriatric Assessment; D006801:Humans; D007362:Intensive Care Units; D008297:Male; D009026:Mortality; D010351:Patient Discharge; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012307:Risk Factors
Anciano; Elderly; Hospitalisation; Hospitalización; Mortality risk; Riesgo de mortalidad