SinoSCORE: a logistically derived additive prediction model for post-coronary artery bypass grafting in-hospital mortality in a Chinese population.
This study aims to construct a logistically derived additive score for predicting in-hospital mortality risk in Chinese patients undergoing coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG). Data from 9839 consecutive CABG patients in 43 Chinese centers were collected between 2007 and 2008 from the Chinese Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting Registry. This database was randomly divided into developmental and validation subsets (9:1). The data in the developmental dataset were used to develop the model using logistic regression. Calibration and discrimination characteristics were assessed using the validation dataset. Thresholds were defined for each model to distinguish different risk groups. After excluding 275 patients with incomplete information, the overall mortality rate of the remaining 9564 patients was 2.5%. The SinoSCORE model was constructed based on 11 variables: age, preoperative NYHA stage III or IV, chronic renal failure, extracardiac arteriopathy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, preoperative atrial fibrillation or flutter (within 2 weeks), left ventricular ejection fraction, other elective surgery, combined valve procedures, preoperative critical state, and BMI. In the developmental dataset, calibration using a Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) test was at P = 0.44 and discrimination based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was 0.80. In the validation dataset, the HL test was at P = 0.34 and the area under the ROC (AUC) was 0.78. A logistically derived additive model for predicting in-hospital mortality among Chinese patients undergoing CABG was developed based on the most up-to-date multi-center data from China.
Department of Cardiovascular Surgery and State Key Laboratory of Cardiovascular Disease, Fuwai Hospital, National Center for Cardiovascular Diseases, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, 100037, China, zhengzhe@fuwai.com.
Zhe
Z
Zheng
Lu
L
Zhang
Xi
X
Li
Shengshou
S
Hu
D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002681:China; D001026:Coronary Artery Bypass / Q000401:mortality*; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D012372:ROC Curve; D012042:Registries; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors