Using base rates and correlational data to supplement clinical risk assessments.
The current study is a partial replication of previous studies designed to estimate the level of risk posed by capital murder defendants. The study draws on data describing the behavior of nearly 2,000 incarcerated capital murderers to forecast violence propensity among defendants sentenced to life imprisonment. Logistic regression is used to model various violence outcomes, relying on the following predictors: age, educational attainment, prior imprisonment, and gang affiliation. This exercise is designed to illustrate how actuarial data may be used to anchor individualized clinical assessments of risk in capital murder trials.
Professor, Department of Criminal Justice, 238 Rivers Building, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27858-4353. sorensenj@ecu.edu.
Jaya
J
Davis
Jon R
JR
Sorensen
D000206:Actuarial Analysis; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000987:Antisocial Personality Disorder / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000523:psychology; D002203:Capital Punishment / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence*; D003617:Dangerous Behavior; D004522:Educational Status; D006708:Homicide / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011329:Prisoners / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence* / Q000523:psychology* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D055502:Secondary Prevention; D012933:Social Identification; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D014754:Violence / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence* / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data