title: The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability.
abstract: Ecological and societal disruptions by modern climate change are critically determined by the time frame over which climates shift beyond historical analogues. Here we present a new index of the year when the projected mean climate of a given location moves to a state continuously outside the bounds of historical variability under alternative greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Using 1860 to 2005 as the historical period, this index has a global mean of 2069 (±18 years s.d.) for near-surface air temperature under an emissions stabilization scenario and 2047 (±14 years s.d.) under a 'business-as-usual' scenario. Unprecedented climates will occur earliest in the tropics and among low-income countries, highlighting the vulnerability of global biodiversity and the limited governmental capacity to respond to the impacts of climate change. Our findings shed light on the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions if climates potentially harmful to biodiversity and society are to be prevented.
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, University of Hawai'i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawai'i 96822, USA. cmora@hawaii.edu
authors.forename: Camilo
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Mora
authors.forename: Abby G
authors.initials: AG
authors.lastname: Frazier
authors.forename: Ryan J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Longman
authors.forename: Rachel S
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Dacks
authors.forename: Maya M
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Walton
authors.forename: Eric J
authors.initials: EJ
authors.lastname: Tong
authors.forename: Joseph J
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Sanchez
authors.forename: Lauren R
authors.initials: LR
authors.lastname: Kaiser
authors.forename: Yuko O
authors.initials: YO
authors.lastname: Stender
authors.forename: James M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Anderson
authors.forename: Christine M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Ambrosino
authors.forename: Iria
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Fernandez-Silva
authors.forename: Louise M
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Giuseffi
authors.forename: Thomas W
authors.initials: TW
authors.lastname: Giambelluca
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D003198:Computer Simulation; D057232:Global Warming; D013995:Time