title: Quantifying contingent relations from direct observation data: transitional probability comparisons versus Yule's Q.
abstract: Measuring contingencies or sequential associations may be applied to a broad range of response-stimulus, stimulus-stimulus, or response-response relations. Within behavior analysis, response-stimulus contingencies have been quantified by comparing 2 transitional probabilities and plotting them in contingency space. Within and outside behavior analysis, Yule's Q has become a recommended statistic used to quantify sequential associations between 2 events. In the current paper, we identify 2 methods of transitional probability comparisons used in the behavior-analytic literature to estimate contingencies in natural settings. We compare each of these methods to the more established Yule's Q statistic and evaluate relations between each pair of indices. Advantages and disadvantages of each method are identified, with recommendations as to which approach may be most appropriate for measuring contingencies.
authors.affiliation: VANDERBILT UNIVERSITY.
authors.forename: Blair P
authors.initials: BP
authors.lastname: Lloyd
authors.forename: Craig H
authors.initials: CH
authors.lastname: Kennedy
authors.forename: Paul J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Yoder
mesh_terms: D006801:Humans; D008960:Models, Psychological; D019370:Observation; D011336:Probability; D012054:Reinforcement, Psychology
keywords: Yule's Q; contingency; descriptive analysis; sequential analysis; transitional probability