title: External validation of the UKPDS risk engine in incident type 2 diabetes: a need for new type 2 diabetes-specific risk equations.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate the performance of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Risk Engine (UKPDS-RE) for predicting the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease end points in an independent cohort of U.K. patients newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes.
  
  
  METHODS
  This was a retrospective cohort study using routine health care data collected between April 1998 and October 2011 from ∼350 U.K. primary care practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Participants comprised 79,966 patients aged between 35 and 85 years (388,269 person-years) with 4,984 cardiovascular events. Four outcomes were evaluated: first diagnosis of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, fatal CHD, and fatal stroke.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Accounting for censoring, the observed versus predicted 10-year event rates were as follows: CHD 6.1 vs. 16.5%, fatal CHD 1.9 vs. 10.1%, stroke 7.0 vs. 10.1%, and fatal stroke 1.7 vs. 1.6%, respectively. The UKPDS-RE showed moderate discrimination for all four outcomes, with the concordance index values ranging from 0.65 to 0.78.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The UKPDS stroke equations showed calibration ranging from poor to moderate; however, the CHD equations showed poor calibration and considerably overestimated CHD risk. There is a need for revised risk equations in type 2 diabetes.
authors.affiliation: Corresponding author: Craig J. Currie, currie@cardiff.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Christian A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Bannister
authors.forename: Chris D
authors.initials: CD
authors.lastname: Poole
authors.forename: Sara
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Jenkins-Jones
authors.forename: Christopher Ll
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: Morgan
authors.forename: Glyn
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Elwyn
authors.forename: Irena
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Spasic
authors.forename: Craig J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Currie
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012307:Risk Factors; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology