title: A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs--a case study for the Gulf of Finland.
abstract: Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA).
authors.affiliation: Aalto University, School of Engineering, Department of Applied Mechanics, Marine Technology, Research Group on Maritime Risk and Safety, P.O. Box 15300, FI-00076 Aalto, Espoo, Finland. Electronic address: jakub.montewka@aalto.fi.
authors.forename: Jakub
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Montewka
authors.forename: Mia
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Weckström
authors.forename: Pentti
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Kujala
mesh_terms: D052918:Environmental Restoration and Remediation / Q000191:economics* / Q000379:methods; D005387:Finland; D015233:Models, Statistical; D059392:Petroleum Pollution / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D014877:Water Pollution, Chemical / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
keywords: Bayesian Belief Networks; Clean-up costs; Maritime traffic; Oil spill; Risk analysis; The Gulf of Finland