title: Effects of marine protected areas on overfished fishing stocks with multiple stable states.
abstract: Marine protected areas (MPAs) have attracted much attention as a tool for sustainable fisheries management, restoring depleted fisheries stocks and maintaining ecosystems. However, even with total exclusion of fishing effort, depleted stocks sometimes show little or no recovery over a long time period. Here, using a mathematical model, we show that multiple stable states may hold the key to understanding the tendency for fisheries stocks to recover because of MPAs. We find that MPAs can have either a positive effect or almost no effect on the recovery of depleted fishing stocks, depending on the fish migration patterns and the fishing policies. MPAs also reinforce ecological resilience, particularly for migratory species. In contrast to previous reports, our results show that MPAs have small or sometimes negative effects on the recovery of sedentary species. Unsuitable MPA planning might result in low effectiveness or even deterioration of the existing condition.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Faculty of Sciences, Kyushu University, 6-10-1, Hakozaki, Fukuoka 812-8581, Japan. Electronic address: nao.takashina@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Nao
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Takashina
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, Shimane University, 1060 Nishikawatsu-cho, Matsue-shi, Shimane 690-8504, Japan.
authors.forename: Akihiko
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Mougi
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D000818:Animals; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D017753:Ecosystem; D005398:Fisheries / Q000379:methods*; D005399:Fishes / Q000502:physiology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics
keywords: Depleted fishing stocks; Ecological resilience; MPAs; Regime shift