title: A risk prediction model for severe intraventricular hemorrhage in very low birth weight infants and the effect of prophylactic indomethacin.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Develop a risk prediction model for severe intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) in very low birth weight infants (VLBWI).
  
  
  METHODS
  Prospectively collected data of infants with birth weight 500 to 1249 g born between 2001 and 2010 in centers from the Neocosur Network were used. Forward stepwise logistic regression model was employed. The model was tested in the 2011 cohort and then applied to the population of VLBWI that received prophylactic indomethacin to analyze its effect in the risk of severe IVH.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Data from 6538 VLBWI were analyzed. The area under ROC curve for the model was 0.79 and 0.76 when tested in the 2011 cohort. The prophylactic indomethacin group had lower incidence of severe IVH, especially in the highest-risk groups.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A model for early severe IVH prediction was developed and tested in our population. Prophylactic indomethacin was associated with a lower risk-adjusted incidence of severe IVH.
authors.affiliation: Division de Pediatria, Hospital Clinico Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
authors.forename: M J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Luque
authors.affiliation: Seccion de Neonatologia, Hospital Clinico Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
authors.forename: J L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Tapia
authors.affiliation: Departamento Salud Publica, Pontificia Universidad Catolica, Santiago, Chile.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Villarroel
authors.affiliation: Facultad de Matematicas, Pontificia Universidad Catolica, Santiago, Chile.
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Marshall
authors.affiliation: Servicio de Neonatologia, Hospital Universitario Austral, Pilar, Argentina.
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Musante
authors.affiliation: Division of Neonatology, University of Alabama at Birmingham, Birmingham, AL, USA.
authors.forename: W
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Carlo
authors.affiliation: Seccion de Neonatologia, Hospital Clinico Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kattan
mesh_terms: D000894:Anti-Inflammatory Agents, Non-Steroidal / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D002543:Cerebral Hemorrhage / Q000517:prevention & control; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007213:Indomethacin / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D007234:Infant, Premature; D019102:Infant, Very Low Birth Weight; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D012372:ROC Curve; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*
chemical_list: D000894:Anti-Inflammatory Agents, Non-Steroidal; D007213:Indomethacin