title: A data-based model to locate mass movements triggered by seismic events in Sichuan, China.
abstract: Earthquakes affect the entire world and have catastrophic consequences. On May 12, 2008, an earthquake of magnitude 7.9 on the Richter scale occurred in the Wenchuan area of Sichuan province in China. This event, together with subsequent aftershocks, caused many avalanches, landslides, debris flows, collapses, and quake lakes and induced numerous unstable slopes. This work proposes a methodology that uses a data mining approach and geographic information systems to predict these mass movements based on their association with the main and aftershock epicenters, geologic faults, riverbeds, and topography. A dataset comprising 3,883 mass movements is analyzed, and some models to predict the location of these mass movements are developed. These predictive models could be used by the Chinese authorities as an important tool for identifying risk areas and rescuing survivors during similar events in the future.
authors.affiliation: Postgraduate Program in Urban Management (PPGTU), Pontifical Catholic University of Paraná (PUC-PR), Polytechnic School and School of Architecture and Design - Rua Imaculada Conceição - 1155-Prado Velho, PO BOX: 16210, 80215-901, Curitiba, Paraná, Brazil, fabio.teodoro@pucpr.br.
authors.forename: Fabio Teodoro
authors.initials: FT
authors.lastname: de Souza
mesh_terms: D055875:Avalanches / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D002681:China; D016208:Databases, Factual; D055866:Earthquakes / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D055593:Geological Phenomena; D055876:Landslides / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018570:Risk Assessment