title: Chinese nomogram to predict probability of positive initial prostate biopsy: a study in Taiwan region.
abstract: Several nomograms for prostate cancer detection have recently been developed. Because the incidence of prostate cancer is lower in Chinese men, nomograms based on other populations cannot be directly applied to Chinese men. We, therefore, developed a model for predicting the probability of a positive initial prostate biopsy using clinical and laboratory data from a Chinese male population. Data were collected from 893 Chinese male referrals, 697 in the derivation set and 196 in the external validation set, who underwent initial prostate biopsies as individual screening. We analyzed age, prostate volume, total prostate-specific antigen (PSA), PSA density (PSAD), digital rectal examinations (DRE) and transrectal ultrasound (TRUS) echogenicity. Logistic regression analysis estimated odds ratio, 95% confidence intervals and P values. Independent predictors of a positive biopsy result included advanced age, small prostate volume, elevated total PSA, abnormal digital rectal examination, and hyperechoic or hypoechoic TRUS echogenicity. We developed a predictive nomogram for an initial positive biopsy using these variables. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for the model was 88.8%, which was greater than that of the prediction based on total PSA alone (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve 74.7%). If externally validated, the predictive probability was 0.827 and the accuracy rate was 78.1%, respectively. Incorporating clinical and laboratory data into a prebiopsy nomogram improved the prediction of prostate cancer compared with predictions based solely on the individual factors.
authors.affiliation: 1] Department of Ophthalmology, Chi-Mei Medical Center, Tainan 710 [2] Department of Optometry, Chung Hwa University of Medical Technology, Tainan 710.
authors.forename: Shu-Chun
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Kuo
authors.forename: Shun-Hsing
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Hung
authors.forename: Hsien-Yi
authors.initials: HY
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Chih-Chiang
authors.initials: CC
authors.lastname: Chien
authors.forename: Chin-Li
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: Lu
authors.forename: Hung-Jung
authors.initials: HJ
authors.lastname: Lin
authors.forename: How-Ran
authors.initials: HR
authors.lastname: Guo
authors.forename: Jian-Fang
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Zou
authors.forename: Chian-Shiung
authors.initials: CS
authors.lastname: Lin
authors.forename: Chien-Cheng
authors.initials: CC
authors.lastname: Huang
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001706:Biopsy; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011336:Probability; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000473:pathology; D013624:Taiwan