title: A psychosocial risk index for poor glycemic control in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to develop and validate a psychosocial screening tool to predict risk for poor glycemic control in children with type 1 diabetes.
  
  
  METHODS
  Participants seen for psychological screening were 196 children aged 3-18 yr at diabetes diagnosis. A psychosocial risk index was developed to predict poor glycemic control [mean hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) ≥ 9.5%; 80 mmol/mol] 1-4 yr post diagnosis. Cutoff scores were derived for multiple levels of risk from receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and likelihood ratios (LRs). Discrimination and calibration were examined in the sample, and validated in 1000 bootstrap samples. Ability to predict diabetes-related emergency-room (ER) visits and diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) was also tested.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The risk index accounted for 16.2% of variance in mean HbA1c, discriminated between children with and without poor glycemic control [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.814, 0.713-0.915; p < 0.001], ER visits (AUC = 0.655, 0.561-0.748; p = 0.001), and DKA(AUC = 0.709, 0.588-0.830; p = 0.001), and was well-calibrated. Every one-point increase in score was associated with an absolute increase in risk for poor glycemic control of approximately 10% (LRs = 1.7, 3.2, 5.8, and 9.3). Sensitivity and specificity were 0.68 (0.43-0.86) and 0.79 (0.72-0.84) for detecting patients at moderate risk, and 0.53 (0.29-0.75) and 0.91 (0.85-0.95) for detecting high-risk patients. The index performed equally well in validation samples.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This paper presents the first psychosocial risk index for poor glycemic control in children newly diagnosed with type 1 diabetes. It is brief, easily administered, and provides a single score that translates directly into an estimate of risk that can help guide routine diabetes care.
authors.affiliation: Department of Pediatrics, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA.
authors.forename: David D
authors.initials: DD
authors.lastname: Schwartz
authors.forename: Marni E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Axelrad
authors.forename: Barbara J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: Anderson
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003922:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 / Q000097:blood / Q000523:psychology / Q000628:therapy*; D016883:Diabetic Ketoacidosis / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000628:therapy; D004636:Emergency Service, Hospital; D005260:Female; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin / Q000032:analysis; D006776:Hospitals, Pediatric; D006801:Humans; D006943:Hyperglycemia / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008960:Models, Psychological; D010044:Outpatient Clinics, Hospital; D010349:Patient Compliance; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012307:Risk Factors; D013781:Texas / Q000453:epidemiology
chemical_list: D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin; C517652:hemoglobin A1c protein, human
keywords: glycemic control; psychosocial; risk assessment; screening tools; type 1 diabetes