title: Pre-stroke CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores are useful in stratifying three-month outcomes in patients with and without atrial fibrillation.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores are validated tools for assessing stroke risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We investigated whether these scores are associated with 3-month stroke outcomes and evaluated the utility of these scores in stratifying 3-month stroke outcomes in both patients with and without AF.
  
  
  METHODS
  We analysed 6,612 acute ischaemic stroke patients from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive who received either placebo or ineffective active treatments not associated with significant cardiac complications. Outcomes included 3-month mortality, good functional outcomes defined as modified Rankin Scale score ≤1 and serious cardiac adverse events (SCAEs) defined as one of acute coronary syndrome, symptomatic heart failure, cardiopulmonary arrest, life-threatening arrhythmia and cardiac death. The association between the pre-stroke CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores and 3-month stroke outcomes was assessed using binary logistic regression. The utility of the two scores in estimating 3-month stroke outcomes was assessed using area under the receiver operator characteristic curves (AUC) and compared using the χ(2) test.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In this cohort, 26.5% had AF, 35.3% received IV tissue plasminogen activator (tPA), 17.7% died, 25.1% achieved good functional outcomes and 9.5% had ≥1 SCAE at 3 months. High-risk (≥2) pre-stroke CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores are both associated with 3-month mortality (CHADS2: odds ratio, OR, 2.33, 95% confidence interval 1.81-3.00; CHA2DS2-VASc: OR 3.01, 2.00-4.80), good functional outcomes (CHADS2: OR 0.47, 0.39-0.57; CHA2DS2-VASc: OR 0.55, 0.42-0.71) and SCAEs (CHADS2: OR 1.76, 1.28-2.42; CHA2DS2-VASc: OR 2.69, 1.53-4.73) after adjusting for baseline differences in neurological impairment, tPA use and AF. The pre-stroke CHA2DS2-VASc score is better than the CHADS2 score in estimating 3-month stroke outcomes in both patients with and without AF (p ≤ 0.005 in all AUC comparisons). High-risk pre-stroke CHA2DS2-VASc score has high sensitivity for mortality (AF: 0.96, 0.94-0.98; no AF: 0.88, 0.86-0.91) and negative predictive value for SCAE (AF: 0.93, 0.87-0.96; no AF: 0.96, 0.95-0.97) within 3 months. Low risk pre-stroke CHA2DS2-VASc score has high specificity for good functional outcome (AF: 0.99, 0.98-0.994; no AF: 0.94, 0.93-0.95) at 3 months.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The pre-stroke CHA2DS2-VASc score appears to be a simple tool for identifying patients at lower risk of poor outcomes and serious cardiac complications within 3 months following ischaemic stroke in patients with and without AF. © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.
authors.affiliation: University Department of Medicine and Department of Neurology, Royal Melbourne Hospital, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Vic., Australia.
authors.forename: Hans T H
authors.initials: HT
authors.lastname: Tu
authors.forename: Bruce C V
authors.initials: BC
authors.lastname: Campbell
authors.forename: Atte
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Meretoja
authors.forename: Leonid
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Churilov
authors.forename: Kennedy R
authors.initials: KR
authors.lastname: Lees
authors.forename: Geoffrey A
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Donnan
authors.forename: Stephen M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Davis
mesh_terms: D061605:Administration, Intravenous; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D019540:Area Under Curve; D001281:Atrial Fibrillation / Q000150:complications* / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality / Q000628:therapy; D016009:Chi-Square Distribution; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D004185:Disability Evaluation; D005260:Female; D005343:Fibrinolytic Agents / Q000008:administration & dosage; D006331:Heart Diseases / Q000209:etiology; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009460:Neurologic Examination; D016017:Odds Ratio; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012372:ROC Curve; D012042:Registries; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D020521:Stroke / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality; D015912:Thrombolytic Therapy; D013997:Time Factors; D010959:Tissue Plasminogen Activator / Q000008:administration & dosage; D016896:Treatment Outcome
chemical_list: D005343:Fibrinolytic Agents; D010959:Tissue Plasminogen Activator