title: Changes in breeding phenology and population size of birds.
abstract: Although the phenology of numerous organisms has advanced significantly in response to recent climate change, the life-history and population consequences of earlier reproduction remain poorly understood. We analysed extensive data on temporal change in laying date and clutch size of birds from Europe and North America to test whether these changes were related to recent trends in population size. Across studies, laying date advanced significantly, while clutch size did not change. However, within populations, changes in laying date and clutch size were positively correlated, implying that species which advanced their laying date the most were also those that increased their clutch size the most. Greater advances in laying date were associated with species that had multiple broods per season, lived in nonagricultural habitats and were herbivorous or predatory. The duration of the breeding season increased for multibrooded species and decreased for single-brooded species. Changes in laying date and clutch size were not related to changes in population size (for resident or migratory species). This suggests that, across a wide variety of species, mismatches in the timing of egg laying or numbers of offspring have had relatively little influence on population size compared with other aspects of phenology and life history.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, P.O. Box 413, Milwaukee, WI 53201, USA.
authors.forename: Peter O
authors.initials: PO
authors.lastname: Dunn
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire Ecologie, Systematique et Evolution, UMR 8079 CNRS-Université Paris-Sud XI-AgroParisTech, Bâtiment 362, Université Paris-Sud XI, F-91405, Orsay Cedex, France.
authors.forename: Anders P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Møller
mesh_terms: D025041:Animal Migration; D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds / Q000502:physiology*; D057231:Climate Change; D005060:Europe; D008954:Models, Biological; D011156:Population Density; D012098:Reproduction; D012621:Seasons
keywords: birds; climate change; duration of breeding season; migration; mismatch hypothesis; population trends