title: Exploring the potential influence of climate change and particulate organic carbon scenarios on the fate of neutral organic contaminants in the Arctic environment.
abstract: The main objective of this study is to explore the potential influence of climate change and particulate organic carbon scenarios on the fate of organic chemicals in the Arctic marine environment using an evaluative modeling approach. Particulate organic carbon scenarios are included to represent changes such as enhanced primary production and terrestrial inputs. Simulations are conducted for a set of hypothetical chemicals covering a wide range of partitioning property combinations using a 40-year emission scenario. Differences in model output between the default simulations (i.e. contemporary conditions) and future scenarios during the primary emission phase are limited in magnitude (typically within a factor of two), consistent with other modeling studies. The changes to particulate organic carbon levels in the Arctic Ocean assumed in the simulations exert a relatively important influence for hydrophobic organic chemicals during the primary emission phase, mitigating the potential for exposure via the pelagic food web by reducing freely-dissolved concentrations in the water column. The changes to particulate organic carbon levels are also influential in the secondary emission/depuration phase. The model results illustrate the potential importance of changes to organic carbon levels in the Arctic Ocean and support efforts to improve the understanding of organic carbon cycling and links to climate change.
authors.affiliation: Department of Physical and Environmental Sciences, University of Toronto Scarborough, 1265 Military Trail, Toronto, Ontario, CanadaM1C 1A4. james.armitage@utoronto.ca.
authors.forename: James M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Armitage
authors.forename: Frank
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Wania
mesh_terms: D001110:Arctic Regions; D057231:Climate Change; D004785:Environmental Pollutants / Q000737:chemistry*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009930:Organic Chemicals / Q000737:chemistry*; D052638:Particulate Matter / Q000737:chemistry*
chemical_list: D004785:Environmental Pollutants; D009930:Organic Chemicals; D052638:Particulate Matter