title: Classification tree analyses reveal limited potential for early targeted prevention against childhood overweight.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Whether specific combinations of risk factors in very early life might allow identification of high-risk target groups for overweight prevention programs was examined.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data of n = 8981 children from the German KiGGS study were analyzed. Using a classification tree approach, predictive risk factor combinations were assessed for overweight in 3-6, 7-10, and 11-17-year-old children.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In preschool children, the subgroup with the highest overweight risk were migrant children with at least one obese parent, with a prevalence of 36.6 (95% confidence interval or CI: 22.9, 50.4)%, compared to an overall prevalence of 10.0 (8.9, 11.2)%. The prevalence of overweight increased from 18.3 (16.8, 19.8)% to 57.9 (46.6, 69.3)% in 7-10-year-old children, if at least one parent was obese and the child had been born large-for-gestational-age. In 11-17-year-olds, the overweight risk increased from 20.1 (18.9, 21.3)% to 63.0 (46.4, 79.7)% in the highest risk group. However, high prevalence ratios were found only in small subgroups, containing <10% of all overweight cases in the respective age group.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our results indicate only a limited potential for early targeted preventions against overweight in children and adolescents.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Diabetes Research, Helmholtz Zentrum München, Munich, Germany; Forschergruppe Diabetes der Technischen Universität München, Munich, Germany.
authors.forename: Andreas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Beyerlein
authors.forename: Dennis
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Kusian
authors.forename: Anette-Gabriele
authors.initials: AG
authors.lastname: Ziegler
authors.forename: Angelika
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Schaffrath-Rosario
authors.forename: Rüdiger
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: von Kries
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D041923:Adolescent Development; D017195:Adolescent Nutritional Physiological Phenomena; D015992:Body Mass Index; D002648:Child; D002657:Child Development; D002664:Child Nutritional Physiological Phenomena; D002675:Child, Preschool; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005192:Family Health; D005260:Female; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D009749:Nutrition Surveys; D050177:Overweight / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D010290:Parents; D015995:Prevalence; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D014171:Transients and Migrants