title: Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Plasmodium vivax Malaria in Korea Estimated with a Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The spatial and temporal correlations were estimated to determine Plasmodium vivax malarial transmission pattern in Korea from 2001-2011 with the hierarchical generalized linear model.
  
  
  METHODS
  Malaria cases reported to the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2001 to 2011 were analyzed with descriptive statistics and the incidence was estimated according to age, sex, and year by the hierarchical generalized linear model. Spatial and temporal correlation was estimated and the best model was selected from nine models. Results were presented as diseases map according to age and sex.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The incidence according to age was highest in the 20-25-year-old group (244.52 infections/100,000). Mean ages of infected males and females were 31.0 years and 45.3 years with incidences 7.8 infections/100,000 and 7.1 infections/100,000 after estimation. The mean month for infection was mid-July with incidence 10.4 infections/100,000. The best-fit model showed that there was a spatial and temporal correlation in the malarial transmission. Incidence was very low or negligible in areas distant from the demilitarized zone between Republic of Korea and Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) if the 20-29-year-old male group was omitted in the diseases map.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Malarial transmission in a region in Korea was influenced by the incidence in adjacent regions in recent years. Since malaria in Korea mainly originates from mosquitoes from North Korea, there will be continuous decrease if there is no further outbreak in North Korea.
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Pukyong National University, Busan, Korea.
authors.forename: Maengseok
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Noh
authors.forename: Youngjo
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Seungyoung
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Oh
authors.forename: Chaeshin
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Chu
authors.forename: Jin
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Gwack
authors.forename: Seung-Ki
authors.initials: SK
authors.lastname: Youn
authors.forename: Shin Hyeong
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Cho
authors.forename: Won Ja
authors.initials: WJ
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Sun
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Huh
keywords: Korea; Plasmodium vivax; epidemiology; incidence; linear models; malaria