title: A systematic review of models used in cost-effectiveness analyses of preventing osteoporotic fractures.
abstract: This review was aimed at the evolution of health economic models used in evaluations of clinical approaches aimed at preventing osteoporotic fractures. Models have improved, with medical continuance becoming increasingly recognized as a contributor to health and economic outcomes, as well as advancements in epidemiological data. Model-based health economic evaluation studies are increasingly used to investigate the cost-effectiveness of osteoporotic fracture preventions and treatments. The objective of this study was to carry out a systematic review of the evolution of health economic models used in the evaluation of osteoporotic fracture preventions. Electronic searches within MEDLINE and EMBASE were carried out using a predefined search strategy. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were used to select relevant studies. References listed of included studies were searched to identify any potential study that was not captured in our electronic search. Data on country, interventions, type of fracture prevention, evaluation perspective, type of model, time horizon, fracture sites, expressed costs, types of costs included, and effectiveness measurement were extracted. Seventy-four models were described in 104 publications, of which 69% were European. Earlier models focused mainly on hip, vertebral, and wrist fracture, but later models included multiple fracture sites (humerus, pelvis, tibia, and other fractures). Modeling techniques have evolved from simple decision trees, through deterministic Markov processes to individual patient simulation models accounting for uncertainty in multiple parameters. Treatment continuance has been increasingly taken into account in the models in the last decade. Models have evolved in their complexity and emphasis, with medical continuance becoming increasingly recognized as a contributor to health and economic outcomes. This evolution may be driven in part by the desire to capture all the important differentiating characteristics of medications under scrutiny, as well as the advancement in epidemiological data relevant to osteoporosis fractures.
authors.affiliation: Menzies Research Institute Tasmania, University of Tasmania, Medical Science 1 Building, 17 Liverpool St (Private Bag 23), Hobart, Tasmania, 7000, Australia, Lei.Si@utas.edu.au.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Si
authors.forename: T M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Winzenberg
authors.forename: A J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Palmer
mesh_terms: D017281:Cost of Illness; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D017048:Health Care Costs / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D017059:Models, Econometric; D058866:Osteoporotic Fractures / Q000191:economics* / Q000517:prevention & control*