title: Can meteorological factors forecast asthma exacerbation in a paediatric population?
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Asthma exacerbations attended in emergency departments show a marked seasonality in the paediatric age. This seasonal pattern can change from one population to another and the factors involved are poorly understood.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To evaluate the association between meteorological factors and schooling with asthma exacerbations in children attended in the paediatric emergency department of a district hospital.
  
  
  METHODS
  We conducted a retrospective review of the medical records of children 5-14 years of age attended for asthma exacerbations during a 4-year period (2007-2011). Climatic data were obtained from a weather station located very close to the population studied. The number of asthma exacerbations was correlated to temperature, barometric pressure, relative humidity, rainfall, wind speed, wind distance, solar radiation, water vapour pressure and schooling, using regression analyses.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During the study period, 371 children were attended for asthma exacerbations; median age was eight years (IQR: 6-11), and 59% were males. Asthma exacerbations showed a bimodal pattern with peaks in spring and summer. Maximum annual peak occurred in week 39, within 15 days from school beginning after the summer holidays. A regression model with mean temperature, water vapour pressure, relative humidity, maximum wind speed and schooling could explain 98.4% (p<0.001) of monthly asthma exacerbations.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The combination of meteorological factors and schooling could predict asthma exacerbations in children attended in a paediatric emergency department.
authors.affiliation: University Institute of Health Sciences-IUNICS, University of the Balearic Islands, Spain; Department of Paediatrics, Inca Hospital, Mallorca Spain. Electronic address: dhmdhm@hotmail.com.
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Hervás
authors.affiliation: Department of Paediatrics, Inca Hospital, Mallorca Spain.
authors.forename: J F
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Utrera
authors.affiliation: University Institute of Health Sciences-IUNICS, University of the Balearic Islands, Spain.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Hervás-Masip
authors.affiliation: University Institute of Health Sciences-IUNICS, University of the Balearic Islands, Spain.
authors.forename: J A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Hervás
authors.affiliation: Respiratory Medicine and Allergy Units, Virgen de la Arrixaca University Children's Hospital, University of Murcia, Spain.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: García-Marcos
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D001249:Asthma / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D004632:Emergency Medical Services / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D006767:Hospitals, District; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008685:Meteorological Concepts; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012574:Schools; D012621:Seasons; D013030:Spain
keywords: Asthma exacerbation; Barometric pressure; Climate; Epidemiology; Humidity; Wind speed