title: Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK.
  
  
  METHODS
  Econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study.
  
  
  METHODS
  United Kingdom.
  
  
  METHODS
  Adults aged 16 and over.
  
  
  METHODS
  A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks.
  
  
  METHODS
  The primary outcomes were the overall and income specific changes in the number and percentage of overweight (body mass index ≥ 25) and obese (≥ 30) adults in the UK following the implementation of the tax. Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ≥ 50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180,000 (110,000 to 247,000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285,000 (201,000 to 364,000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was £276m (£272m to £279m), with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180,000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults.
authors.affiliation: British Heart Foundation Health Promotion Research Group, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford OX3 7LF, UK.
authors.forename: Adam D M
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Briggs
authors.forename: Oliver T
authors.initials: OT
authors.lastname: Mytton
authors.forename: Ariane
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kehlbacher
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Tiffin
authors.forename: Mike
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Rayner
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Scarborough
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001628:Beverages / Q000191:economics* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D015992:Body Mass Index; D003132:Commerce / Q000191:economics*; D003625:Data Collection; D019422:Dietary Sucrose / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000009:adverse effects*; D002149:Energy Intake; D005260:Female; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D007182:Income; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D017059:Models, Econometric; D009765:Obesity / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D050177:Overweight / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D015995:Prevalence; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013660:Taxes / Q000191:economics*; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D019422:Dietary Sucrose