title: Mathematical Modeling of Vibrio vulnificus Infection in Korea and the Influence of Global Warming.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To investigate the possible link between Vibrio vulnificus population size in seawater and water temperature.
  
  
  METHODS
  We collected incidence and water temperature data in coastal regions of Korea and constructed a mathematical model that consisted of three classes; susceptible fish, infected fish available to humans, and infected humans.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We developed a mathematical model to connect V. vulnificus incidence with water temperature using estimated bacterial population sizes and actual coastal water temperatures.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Increased V. vulnificus population sizes in marine environments may increase the risk of infection in people who eat at coastal restaurants in Korea. Furthermore, we estimated the near-future number of infected patients using our model, which will help to establish a public-health policy to reduce the disease burden.
authors.affiliation: Division of Epidemic Intelligence Service, Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Osong, Korea.
authors.forename: Chaeshin
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Chu
authors.forename: Younghae
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Do
authors.forename: Yongkuk
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.forename: Yasuhisa
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Saito
authors.forename: Sun-Dong
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Haemo
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Park
authors.forename: Jong-Koo
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: Lee
keywords: Vibrio vulnificus; global warming; infectious disease; mathematical modeling; temperature