title: The projection of burden of disease in Islamic Republic of Iran to 2025.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Iran as a developing country is in the transition phase, which might have a big impact on the Burden of Disease and Injury (BOD). This study aims to estimate Burden of Disease and Injury (BOD) in Iran up to 2025 due to four broad cause groups using Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY).
  
  
  METHODS
  The impacts of demographic and epidemiological changes on BOD (DemBOD and EpiBOD) were assessed separately. We estimated DemBOD in nine scenarios, using different projections for life expectancy and total fertility rate. EpiBOD was modeled in two scenarios as a proportion of DemBOD, based on the extracted parameters from an international study.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The BOD is projected to increase from 14.3 million in 2003 to 19.4 million in 2025 (95% uncertainty interval: 16.8, 21.9), which shows an overall increase of 35.3%. Non-communicable diseases (12.7 million DALY, 66.0%), injuries (4.6 million DALY, 24.0%), and communicable diseases, except HIV/AIDS (1.8 million DALY, 9%) will be the leading causes of losing healthy life. Under the most likely scenario, the maximum increase in disease burden due to DemBOD is projected to be observed in HIV/AIDS and Non-communicable diseases (63.9 and 62.4%, respectively) and due to EpiBOD in HIV/AIDS (319.5%).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  It seems that in the following decades, BOD will have a sharp increase in Iran, mainly due to DemBOD. It seems that communicable diseases (except HIV/AIDS) will have less contribution, and especially non-communicable diseases will play a more significant role.
authors.affiliation: Regional Knowledge Hub, and WHO Collaborating Centre for HIV Surveillance, Institute for Futures Studies in Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, Iran.
authors.forename: Razieh
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Khajehkazemi
authors.forename: Behnam
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Sadeghirad
authors.forename: Mohammad
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Karamouzian
authors.forename: Mohammad-Sadegh
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Fallah
authors.forename: Mohammad-Hossien
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Mehrolhassani
authors.forename: Reza
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Dehnavieh
authors.forename: AliAkbar
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Haghdoost
mesh_terms: D005544:Forecasting; D017048:Health Care Costs / Q000266:history / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*; D049674:History, 21st Century; D006801:Humans; D007492:Iran / Q000453:epidemiology; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D011634:Public Health / Q000266:history / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*