title: Demographic transition in India: an evolutionary interpretation of population and health trends using 'change-point analysis'.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Lack of a robust analytical tool for trend analysis of population and health indicators is the basic rationale of this study. In an effort to fill this gap, this study advances 'Change-Point analyzer' as a new analytical tool for assessment of the progress and its pattern in population and health indicators.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The defining feature of 'change-point analyzer' is that, it detects subtle changes that are often missed in simple trend line plots and also quantified the volume of change that is not possible in simple trend line plots. A long-term assessment of 'change-point analyses' of trends in population and health indicators such as IMR, Population size, TFR, and LEB in India show multiple points of critical changes. Measured change points of demographic and health trends helps in understanding the demographic transitional shifts connecting it to contextual policy shifts. Critical change-points in population and health indicators in India are associated with the evolution of structural changes in population and health policy framework.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study, therefore, adds significantly to the evolutionary interpretation of critical change-points in long-term trajectories of population and health indicators vis-a-vis population and health policy shifts in India. The results have not only helped in reassessing the historical past and the current demographic transition trajectory but also advanced a new method of assessing the population and health trends which are necessary for robust monitoring of the progress in population and health policies.
authors.affiliation: Department of Development Studies, Giri Institute of Development Studies (GIDS), Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India.
authors.forename: Srinivas
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Goli
authors.forename: Perianayagam
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Arokiasamy
mesh_terms: D001723:Birth Rate; D006262:Health / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D049672:History, 19th Century; D049673:History, 20th Century; D049674:History, 21st Century; D006801:Humans; D007194:India; D008017:Life Expectancy; D009026:Mortality; D011153:Population; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics / Q000266:history / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends*; D013997:Time Factors