title: Nomogram to predict ongoing pregnancy using age of women and serum biomarkers after in vitro fertilization cycles.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop a nomogram for prediction of ongoing pregnancy after in vitro fertilization (IVF)-embryo transfer (ET) using age of women and serum biomarkers.
  
  
  METHODS
  Prospective longitudinal study of 103 patients undergoing IVF-ET at a university-based hospital. Serum HCG and progesterone levels were measured at the time of the pregnancy test (14 days after oocyte retrieval) and pregnancy outcomes were followed. The main outcome was ongoing pregnancy prediction.
  
  
  RESULTS
  For the prediction of ongoing pregnancy, a combination of serum HCG, progesterone and age of the woman shows the best predictive accuracy (AUC 0.912 [95% CI 0.815-1.000], sensitivity 89.3%, specificity 80.0%, positive predictive value 89.3%, negative predictive value 80.0%). On the basis of these variables, we developed a nomogram to predict ongoing pregnancy.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A nomogram could help to predict ongoing pregnancy after IVF-ET. The nomogram needs further validation to improve individualized prediction of ongoing pregnancy.
authors.affiliation: Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, South Korea; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Jee Hyun
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, South Korea; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea. Electronic address: blasto@snubh.org.
authors.forename: Byung Chul
authors.initials: BC
authors.lastname: Jee
authors.affiliation: Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University Bundang Hospital, Seongnam, South Korea; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Chang Suk
authors.initials: CS
authors.lastname: Suh
authors.affiliation: Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Seok Hyun
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Kim
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D019540:Area Under Curve; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood; D006063:Chorionic Gonadotropin / Q000097:blood*; D004624:Embryo Transfer; D005260:Female; D005307:Fertilization in Vitro; D006801:Humans; D049451:Nomograms; D011247:Pregnancy; D011256:Pregnancy Outcome; D011374:Progesterone / Q000097:blood*; D011446:Prospective Studies
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers; D006063:Chorionic Gonadotropin; D011374:Progesterone
keywords: Human chorionic gonadotropin; In vitro fertilization; Nomogram; Ongoing pregnancy prediction; Progesterone