The prostate cancer risk stratification (ProCaRS) project: recursive partitioning risk stratification analysis.
BACKGROUND
The Genitourinary Radiation Oncologists of Canada (GUROC) published a three-group risk stratification (RS) system to assist prostate cancer decision-making in 2001. The objective of this project is to use the ProCaRS database to statistically model the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of a proposed new multi-group RS schema.


METHODS
The RS analyses utilized the ProCaRS database that consists of 7974 patients from four Canadian institutions. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) was utilized to explore the sub-stratification of groups defined by the existing three-group GUROC scheme. 10-fold cross-validated C-indices and the Net Reclassification Index were both used to assess multivariable models and compare the predictive accuracy of existing and proposed RS systems, respectively.


RESULTS
The recursive partitioning analysis has suggested that the existing GUROC classification system could be altered to accommodate as many as six separate and statistical unique groups based on differences in BFFS (C-index 0.67 and AUC 0.70). GUROC low-risk patients would be divided into new favorable-low and low-risk groups based on PSA ⩽6 and PSA >6. GUROC intermediate-risk patients can be subclassified into low-intermediate and high-intermediate groups. GUROC high-intermediate-risk is defined as existing GUROC intermediate-risk with PSA >=10 AND either T2b/c disease or T1T2a disease with Gleason 7. GUROC high-risk patients would be subclassified into an additional extreme-risk group (GUROC high-risk AND (positive cores ⩾87.5% OR PSA >30).


CONCLUSIONS
Proposed RS subcategories have been identified by a RPA of the ProCaRS database.
Department of Radiation Oncology, London Health Sciences Centre, Canada. Electronic address: george.rodrigues@lhsc.on.ca.
George
G
Rodrigues
Himu
H
Lukka
Padraig
P
Warde
Michael
M
Brundage
Luis
L
Souhami
Juanita
J
Crook
Fabio
F
Cury
Charles
C
Catton
Gary
G
Mok
Andre-Guy
AG
Martin
Eric
E
Vigneault
Jim
J
Morris
Andrew
A
Warner
Sandra
S
Gonzalez Maldonado
Tom
T
Pickles
D000368:Aged; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011471:Prostatic Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality / Q000532:radiotherapy*; D012306:Risk
Database; Prognosis; Prostatic neoplasms; Radiotherapy; Statistical model