title: Identifying high-risk areas of bacillary dysentery and associated meteorological factors in Wuhan, China.
abstract: Spatial distribution of bacillary dysentery incidence was mapped at the district level in Wuhan, China. And a generalized additive time series model was used to examine the effect of daily weather factors on bacillary dysentery in the high-risk areas, after controlling for potential confounding factors. Central districts were found to be the high-risk areas. The time series analysis found an acute effect of meteorological factors on bacillary dysentery occurrence. A positive association was found for mean temperature (excess risk (ER) for 1°C increase being 0.94% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.46% to 1.43% on the lag day 2), while a negative effect was observed for relative humidity and rainfall, the ER for 1% increase in relative humidity was -0.21% (95% CI: -0.34% to -0.08%), and the ER for 1 mm increase in rainfall was -0.23% (95% CI: -0.37% to -0.09%). This study suggests that bacillary dysentery prevention and control strategy should consider local weather variations.
authors.affiliation: 1] State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention; Collaborative Innovation Center for Diagnosis and Treatment of Infectious Diseases [2].
authors.forename: Zhenjun
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Ligui
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Weige
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.forename: Xuexin
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Hou
authors.forename: Haiyan
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.forename: Lina
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.forename: Shuai
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.forename: Qiangzheng
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.forename: Jingshan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Hongbin
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Song
authors.forename: Hualiang
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Lin
mesh_terms: D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D004405:Dysentery, Bacillary / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology*; D006801:Humans; D006813:Humidity; D015994:Incidence; D008685:Meteorological Concepts; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012306:Risk; D013696:Temperature; D014887:Weather