title: Time to 12-month remission and treatment failure for generalised and unclassified epilepsy.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop prognostic models for time to 12-month remission and time to treatment failure after initiating antiepileptic drug monotherapy for generalised and unclassified epilepsy.
  
  
  METHODS
  We analysed data from the Standard and New Antiepileptic Drug (arm B) study, a randomised trial that compared initiating treatment with lamotrigine, topiramate and valproate in patients diagnosed with generalised or unclassified epilepsy. Multivariable regression modelling was used to investigate how clinical factors affect the probability of achieving 12-month remission and treatment failure.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Significant factors in the multivariable model for time to 12-month remission were having a relative with epilepsy, neurological insult, total number of tonic-clonic seizures before randomisation, seizure type and treatment. Significant factors in the multivariable model for time to treatment failure were treatment history (antiepileptic drug treatment prior to randomisation), EEG result, seizure type and treatment.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The models described within this paper can be used to identify patients most likely to achieve 12-month remission and most likely to have treatment failure, aiding individual patient risk stratification and the design and analysis of future epilepsy trials.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, University of Liverpool, , Liverpool, UK.
authors.forename: Laura J
authors.initials: LJ
authors.lastname: Bonnett
authors.forename: Catrin
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Tudur Smith
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.forename: Paula R
authors.initials: PR
authors.lastname: Williamson
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Chadwick
authors.forename: Anthony G
authors.initials: AG
authors.lastname: Marson
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000927:Anticonvulsants / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D002648:Child; D004569:Electroencephalography; D004829:Epilepsy, Generalized / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D005260:Female; D005632:Fructose / Q000031:analogs & derivatives* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D006801:Humans; D000077213:Lamotrigine; D008279:Magnetic Resonance Imaging; D008297:Male; D016017:Odds Ratio; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012074:Remission Induction; D012640:Seizures / Q000517:prevention & control; D013997:Time Factors; D014057:Tomography, X-Ray Computed; D000077236:Topiramate; D017211:Treatment Failure; D014227:Triazines / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D014635:Valproic Acid / Q000627:therapeutic use*
chemical_list: D000927:Anticonvulsants; D014227:Triazines; D000077236:Topiramate; D005632:Fructose; D014635:Valproic Acid; D000077213:Lamotrigine
keywords: Epilepsy; Randomised Trials