title: Caries risk assessment models in caries prediction.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this research was to assess the efficiency of different multifactor models in caries prediction.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data from the questionnaire and objective examination of 109 examinees was entered into the Cariogram, Previser and Caries-Risk Assessment Tool (CAT) multifactor risk assessment models. Caries risk was assessed with the help of all three models for each patient, classifying them as low, medium or high-risk patients. The development of new caries lesions over a period of three years [Decay Missing Filled Tooth (DMFT) increment = difference between Decay Missing Filled Tooth Surface (DMFTS) index at baseline and follow up], provided for examination of the predictive capacity concerning different multifactor models.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The data gathered showed that different multifactor risk assessment models give significantly different results (Friedman test: Chi square = 100.073, p=0.000). Cariogram is the model which identified the majority of examinees as medium risk patients (70%). The other two models were more radical in risk assessment, giving more unfavorable risk -profiles for patients. In only 12% of the patients did the three multifactor models assess the risk in the same way. Previser and CAT gave the same results in 63% of cases - the Wilcoxon test showed that there is no statistically significant difference in caries risk assessment between these two models (Z = -1.805, p=0.071).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Evaluation of three different multifactor caries risk assessment models (Cariogram, PreViser and CAT) showed that only the Cariogram can successfully predict new caries development in 12-year-old Bosnian children.
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive and Pediatric Dentistry, Faculty of Dentistry, University of Sarajevo, Bolnička 4a, 71000 Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina. amila.zukanovic@hotmail.com.
authors.forename: Amila
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Zukanović
mesh_terms: D000704:Analysis of Variance; D017522:Bosnia and Herzegovina / Q000453:epidemiology; D002648:Child; D004245:DMF Index; D003731:Dental Caries / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D003733:Dental Caries Susceptibility; D005247:Feeding Behavior; D005260:Female; D005459:Fluorides / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D009910:Oral Hygiene / Q000592:standards*; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012463:Saliva / Q000737:chemistry; D012574:Schools; D012636:Secretory Rate; D012923:Social Class; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires
chemical_list: D005459:Fluorides