title: Is the abdominal aortic aneurysm rupture rate decreasing?
abstract: Decreased smoking has likely had the most significant impact on reducing the prevalence of AAAs. In a review of public data in England and Wales, Anjum and colleagues illustrated a reduction of AAA rupture from 1997 to2009 across all ages attributed to a concurrent decrease in prevalence of smoking. This trend has also been noted in a meta-analysis from Sweeting and colleagues and attributed to a reduction in the prevalence of smoking since the mid-1970s along with an enhanced awareness of cardiovascular risk factor reduction and selective aneurysm screening. Along with an effort to reduce AAA progression and rupture, tools to predict patient-specific risk of AAA rupture are evolving with refined models that incorporate both aneurysm wall stress and wall strength likely to provide the most promising approach. Although the role of statins, ACE inhibitors, beta-blockers, and aspirin in preventing or slowing aneurysmal rupture remains unresolved, their proven benefit in reducing long-term cardiovascular mortality suggests that these medications should be considered in any patient with a small AAA. Currently, randomized trials do not show any survival benefit for open or endovascular repair for small aneurysms in the range of 4.0 to 5.4 cm. AAA repair, whether through an endovascular or open approach, is not without potential complication. Even at centers of excellence, the 30-day mortality rate for conventional AAA surgery is 3% to 5%, with rates of major morbidityranging from 15% to 40%. The Society for Vascular Surgery guidelines recommends surveillance for patients with a fusiform AAA of 4.0 to 5.4 cm. The risk of AAA rupture appears to be decreasing through heightened public awareness, advanced technology for AAA detection, screening and surveillance, improved understanding of biomechanics and natural progression in AAA rupture, along with the availability of a wide range of medical therapies for risk factor reduction and minimally invasive options for AAA repair.
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgery, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Harvard Medical School, 110 Francis Street, Suite 9B, Boston, MA 02215, USA.
authors.forename: Andy M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Elliot L
authors.initials: EL
authors.lastname: Chaikof
mesh_terms: D017542:Aneurysm, Ruptured / Q000453:epidemiology*; D017544:Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D009017:Morbidity / Q000639:trends; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology