title: "Metroticket" predictor for assessing liver transplantation to treat hepatocellular carcinoma: a single-center analysis in mainland China.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To validate the "Metroticket" predictor using a large cohort of liver transplantation (LT) patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in China.
  
  
  METHODS
  In total, 230 cases of LT for HCC treatment at our center, from July 2000 to August 2008, were included in the present study. The predicted 1-, 3- and 5-year post-LT survival rates were calculated using the Metroticket model (http://89.96.76.14/metroticket/calculator/). The predicted and observed long-term survival rates were then compared and analyzed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The predicted survival rates for all 230 cases, as calculated by the Metroticket model, were 64.7% and 56.2% at 3 and 5 years, respectively, and the observed survival rates for these patients were 71.3% and 57.8%, respectively. For the 23 cases with macrovascular invasion, the predicted 5-year survival rate was 43.5%, whereas the observed 5-year survival rate was only 8.7%. For the 42 cases with microvascular invasion but an absence of macrovascular invasion, the predicted 5-year survival rate was 44.9%, and the observed 5-year survival rate was 50%. For the remaining 165 patients without any vascular invasion, the predicted 5-year survival rate was 65.8%, and the observed 5-year survival rate was 66.7%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The Metroticket model can be used to accurately predict survival in HCC-related LT cases with an absence of macrovascular invasion.
authors.affiliation: Jian-Yong Lei, Wen-Tao Wang, Lu-Nan Yan, Liver Transplantation Center, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan Province, China.
authors.forename: Jian-Yong
authors.initials: JY
authors.lastname: Lei
authors.forename: Wen-Tao
authors.initials: WT
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Lu-Nan
authors.initials: LN
authors.lastname: Yan
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D006528:Carcinoma, Hepatocellular / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery*; D002681:China; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery*; D016031:Liver Transplantation / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000401:mortality; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009361:Neoplasm Invasiveness; D018579:Patient Selection; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D015996:Survival Rate; D013997:Time Factors; D016896:Treatment Outcome
keywords: Hepatocellular carcinoma; Liver transplantation; Metroticket; Model; Survival