title: Cohort analysis of incidence/mortality of liver cancer in Japan through logistic curve fitting.
abstract: Incidence/mortality of liver cancer follow logistic curves because there is a limit reflecting the prevalence of hepatitis virus carriers in the cohort. The author fitted logistic curves to incidence/mortality data covering the nine five-year cohorts born in 1911-1955 of both sexes. Goodness-of-fit of logistic curves was sufficiently precise to be used for future predictions. Younger cohorts born in 1936 or later were predicted to show constant decline in incidence/mortality in the future. The male cohort born in 1931-35 showed an elevated incidence/mortality of liver cancer early in their lives supporting the previous claim that this particular cohort had suffered massive HCV infection due to nation-wide drug abuse in the 1950s. Declining case-fatality observed in younger cohorts suggested improved treatment of liver cancer. This study demonstrated that incidence/mortality of liver cancer follow logistic curves and fitted logistic formulae can be used for future prediction. Given the predicted decline of incidence/mortality in younger cohorts, liver cancer is likely to be lost to history in the not-so-distant future.
authors.affiliation: National Institute of Public Health, Saitama, Japan E-mail : atoz@niph.go.jp.
authors.forename: Etsuji
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Okamoto
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D008113:Liver Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged