title: Climate change impact and adaptation assessment on food consumption utilizing a new scenario framework.
abstract: We assessed the impacts of climate change and agricultural autonomous adaptation measures (changes in crop variety and planting dates) on food consumption and risk of hunger considering uncertainties in socioeconomic and climate conditions by using a new scenario framework. We combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and estimated the impacts through 2050 based on future assumptions of socioeconomic and climate conditions. We used three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways as future population and gross domestic products, four Representative Concentration Pathways as a greenhouse gas emissions constraint, and eight General Circulation Models to estimate climate conditions. We found that (i) the adaptation measures are expected to significantly lower the risk of hunger resulting from climate change under various socioeconomic and climate conditions. (ii) population and economic development had a greater impact than climate conditions for risk of hunger at least throughout 2050, but climate change was projected to have notable impacts, even in the strong emission mitigation scenarios. (iii) The impact on hunger risk varied across regions because levels of calorie intake, climate change impacts and land scarcity varied by region.
authors.affiliation: Center for Social & Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies , 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan.
authors.forename: Tomoko
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Hasegawa
authors.forename: Shinichiro
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Fujimori
authors.forename: Yonghee
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Shin
authors.forename: Kiyoshi
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Takahashi
authors.forename: Toshihiko
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Masui
authors.forename: Akemi
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Tanaka
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000379:methods; D057231:Climate Change; D005523:Food Supply; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D035501:Uncertainty