title: EPA's Stage 2 Disinfection Byproducts Rules (DBPR) and Northern Kentucky Water: An Economic and Scientific Review.
abstract: Implementation of EPA's Stage 2 Disinfection Byproducts Rules (DBPR) in Northern Kentucky will cause a water rate increase of over 25%. Hence a review was undertaken, considering both economics and science in the context of President Obama's 2009 scientific integrity directive. The rules purport to avoid up to 0.49% of new bladder cancers by reducing the levels of DBPs in drinking water - a benefit so small that failure to implement will not cause unreasonable risk to health (URTH). It suggests at most one Northern Kentucky death avoided over 17 years for a cost of $136,000,000 ($1700 per household). Even this small benefit is probably overstated. EPA finds no "causal link" between DBPs and bladder cancer, and EPA acknowledges problems with the epidemiological data used in their calculation: the data appear contradictory and inconsistent, may be skewed toward "positive" results, and suggest different cancer sites than animal studies. Two similar international agencies disagree with EPA's conclusions. The science is based on the Linear No Threshold (LNT) dose response model for DBPs, but this may not be the correct model. 83% of EPA's epidemiological data show a statistical possibility that low levels of DBPs might be beneficial or have no effect.
authors.affiliation: Department of Physics, Northern Kentucky University.
authors.forename: Hugh
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Henry
keywords: Chlorinated Drinking water; Disinfection byproducts (DBP); EPA Water Regulations; Hormesis; LNT model; Trihalomethane (THM)