title: Surrogate safety measure for evaluating rear-end collision risk related to kinematic waves near freeway recurrent bottlenecks.
abstract: This study presents a surrogate safety measure for evaluating the rear-end collision risk related to kinematic waves near freeway recurrent bottlenecks using aggregated traffic data from ordinary loop detectors. The attributes of kinematic waves that accompany rear-end collisions and the traffic conditions at detector stations spanning the collision locations were examined to develop the rear-end collision risk index (RCRI). Together with RCRI, standard deviations in occupancy were used to develop a logistic regression model for estimating rear-end collision likelihood near freeway recurrent bottlenecks in real-time. The parameters in the logistic regression models were calibrated using collision data gathered from the 6-mile study site between 2006 and 2007. Findings indicated that an additional unit increase in RCRI results in increasing the odds of rear-end collision by 21.1%, a unit increase in standard deviation of upstream occupancy increases the odds by 19.5%, and a unit increase in standard deviation of downstream occupancy increases the odds by 18.7%. The likelihood of rear-end collisions is highest when the traffic approaching from upstream is near capacity state while downstream traffic is highly congested. The paper also reports on the findings from comparing the predicted number of rear-end collisions at the study site using the proposed model with the observed traffic collision data from 2008. The proposed model's true positive rates were higher than those of existing real-time crash prediction models.
authors: School of Transportation, Southeast University, 2 Si Pai Lou, Nanjing 210096, China. Electronic address: lizhibin@seu.edu.cn.
authors: Zhibin
authors: Z
authors: Li
authors: Department of Transportation Engineering, Ajou University, San 5, Woncheon-dong, Yeongtong-gu, Suwon 443-749, South Korea. Electronic address: citadel@ajou.ac.kr.
authors: Seongchae
authors: S
authors: Ahn
authors: School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Korea University, Anam-Dong, Seongbuk-Gu, Seoul 136-713, South Korea. Electronic address: koohong_chung@dot.ca.gov.
authors: Koohong
authors: K
authors: Chung
authors: Safe Transportation Research & Education Center, University of California, Berkeley, 2614 Dwight Way #7374, Berkeley, CA 94720-7374, United States. Electronic address: davidr@berkeley.edu.
authors: David R
authors: DR
authors: Ragland
authors: School of Transportation, Southeast University, 2 Si Pai Lou, Nanjing 210096, China. Electronic address: wangwei@seu.edu.cn.
authors: Wei
authors: W
authors: Wang
authors: Department of Transportation Engineering, Ajou University, San 5, Woncheon-dong, Yeongtong-gu, Suwon 443-749, South Korea. Electronic address: jeongwhon@ajou.ac.kr.
authors: Jeong Whon
authors: JW
authors: Yu
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D001334:Automobile Driving / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D001696:Biomechanical Phenomena; D002140:California; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D004779:Environment Design / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*
keywords: Collision risk; Kinematic wave; Rear-end collision; Recurrent bottleneck; Surrogate safety measure