title: A geological perspective on potential future sea-level rise.
abstract: During ice-age cycles, continental ice volume kept pace with slow, multi-millennial scale, changes in climate forcing. Today, rapid greenhouse gas (GHG) increases have outpaced ice-volume responses, likely committing us to > 9 m of long-term sea-level rise (SLR). We portray a context of naturally precedented SLR from geological evidence, for comparison with historical observations and future projections. This context supports SLR of up to 0.9 (1.8) m by 2100 and 2.7 (5.0) m by 2200, relative to 2000, at 68% (95%) probability. Historical SLR observations and glaciological assessments track the upper 68% limit. Hence, modern change is rapid by past interglacial standards but within the range of 'normal' processes. The upper 95% limit offers a useful low probability/high risk value. Exceedance would require conditions without natural interglacial precedents, such as catastrophic ice-sheet collapse, or activation of major East Antarctic mass loss at sustained CO2 levels above 1000 ppmv.
authors: 1] Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra 0200 Australia [2] Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK.
authors: Eelco J
authors: EJ
authors: Rohling
authors: Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK.
authors: Ivan D
authors: ID
authors: Haigh
authors: Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK.
authors: Gavin L
authors: GL
authors: Foster
authors: Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra 0200 Australia.
authors: Andrew P
authors: AP
authors: Roberts
authors: 1] Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra 0200 Australia [2] Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK.
authors: Katharine M
authors: KM
authors: Grant