title: Metapopulation dynamics enable persistence of influenza A, including A/H5N1, in poultry.
abstract: Highly pathogenic influenza A/H5N1 has persistently but sporadically caused human illness and death since 1997. Yet it is still unclear how this pathogen is able to persist globally. While wild birds seem to be a genetic reservoir for influenza A, they do not seem to be the main source of human illness. Here, we highlight the role that domestic poultry may play in maintaining A/H5N1 globally, using theoretical models of spatial population structure in poultry populations. We find that a metapopulation of moderately sized poultry flocks can sustain the pathogen in a finite poultry population for over two years. Our results suggest that it is possible that moderately intensive backyard farms could sustain the pathogen indefinitely in real systems. This fits a pattern that has been observed from many empirical systems. Rather than just employing standard culling procedures to control the disease, our model suggests ways that poultry production systems may be modified.
authors: EcoHealth Alliance, New York, New York, United States of America.
authors: Parviez Rana
authors: PR
authors: Hosseini
authors: Trevon
authors: T
authors: Fuller
authors: Ryan
authors: R
authors: Harrigan
authors: Delong
authors: D
authors: Zhao
authors: Carmen Sofia
authors: CS
authors: Arriola
authors: Armandoe
authors: A
authors: Gonzalez
authors: Matthew Joshua
authors: MJ
authors: Miller
authors: Xiangming
authors: X
authors: Xiao
authors: Tom B
authors: TB
authors: Smith
authors: Jamie Holland
authors: JH
authors: Jones
authors: Peter
authors: P
authors: Daszak
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D004197:Disease Reservoirs / Q000821:virology*; D006801:Humans; D053124:Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype; D005585:Influenza in Birds / Q000453:epidemiology*; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008954:Models, Biological; D011200:Poultry / Q000821:virology*