title: Prediction of periodontal disease: modelling and validation in different general German populations.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To develop models for periodontitis using self-reported questions and to validate them externally.
  
  
  METHODS
  The Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-0) was used for model development. Periodontitis was defined according to the definitions of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention-American Academy of Periodontology, the 5th European Workshop in Periodontology, and Dietrich et al. (≥2 teeth with inter-proximal clinical attachment loss of ≥4 mm and 6 mm as moderate and severe periodontitis) respectively. These models were validated in SHIP-Trend and the Fourth German Oral Health Study (DMS IV).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Final models included age, gender, education, smoking, bleeding on brushing and self-reported presence of mobile teeth. Concordance-statistics (C-statistics) of the final models from SHIP-0 were 0.84, 0.82 and 0.85 for the three definitions respectively. Validation in SHIP-Trend revealed C-statistics of 0.82, 0.81 and 0.82 respectively. As bleeding on brushing and presence of mobile teeth were unavailable in DMS IV, reduced models were developed. C-statistics of reduced models were 0.82, 0.81 and 0.83 respectively. Validation in DMS IV revealed C-statistics of 0.72, 0.78 and 0.72 for the three definitions respectively. All p values of the goodness-of-fit tests were >0.05.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The models yielded a moderate usefulness for prediction of periodontitis.
authors: Unit of Periodontology, University Medicine, Ernst-Moritz-Arndt University Greifswald, Greifswald, Germany.
authors: Yiqiang
authors: Y
authors: Zhan
authors: Birte
authors: B
authors: Holtfreter
authors: Peter
authors: P
authors: Meisel
authors: Thomas
authors: T
authors: Hoffmann
authors: Wolfgang
authors: W
authors: Micheelis
authors: Thomas
authors: T
authors: Dietrich
authors: Thomas
authors: T
authors: Kocher
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D004522:Educational Status; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D005884:Gingival Hemorrhage / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D017622:Periodontal Attachment Loss / Q000453:epidemiology; D010514:Periodontal Pocket / Q000453:epidemiology; D010518:Periodontitis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015995:Prevalence; D012649:Self Concept; D057566:Self Report; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D012737:Sex Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology; D014086:Tooth Mobility / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP); external validation; periodontitis; self-reported measures; the Fourth German Oral Health Study (DMS IV)