title: Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset and termination of depression.
abstract: About 17% of humanity goes through an episode of major depression at some point in their lifetime. Despite the enormous societal costs of this incapacitating disorder, it is largely unknown how the likelihood of falling into a depressive episode can be assessed. Here, we show for a large group of healthy individuals and patients that the probability of an upcoming shift between a depressed and a normal state is related to elevated temporal autocorrelation, variance, and correlation between emotions in fluctuations of autorecorded emotions. These are indicators of the general phenomenon of critical slowing down, which is expected to occur when a system approaches a tipping point. Our results support the hypothesis that mood may have alternative stable states separated by tipping points, and suggest an approach for assessing the likelihood of transitions into and out of depression.
authors: Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, 6700 AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors: Ingrid A
authors: IA
authors: van de Leemput
authors: Marieke
authors: M
authors: Wichers
authors: Angélique O J
authors: AO
authors: Cramer
authors: Denny
authors: D
authors: Borsboom
authors: Francis
authors: F
authors: Tuerlinckx
authors: Peter
authors: P
authors: Kuppens
authors: Egbert H
authors: EH
authors: van Nes
authors: Wolfgang
authors: W
authors: Viechtbauer
authors: Erik J
authors: EJ
authors: Giltay
authors: Steven H
authors: SH
authors: Aggen
authors: Catherine
authors: C
authors: Derom
authors: Nele
authors: N
authors: Jacobs
authors: Kenneth S
authors: KS
authors: Kendler
authors: Han L J
authors: HL
authors: van der Maas
authors: Michael C
authors: MC
authors: Neale
authors: Frenk
authors: F
authors: Peeters
authors: Evert
authors: E
authors: Thiery
authors: Peter
authors: P
authors: Zachar
authors: Marten
authors: M
authors: Scheffer
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000339:Affect; D000368:Aged; D000465:Algorithms; D003865:Major Depressive Disorder / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000503:physiopathology / Q000628:therapy*; D004644:Emotions; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008960:Models, Psychological; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D013997:Time Factors; D018433:Twin Studies as Topic; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: critical transitions; early warning signals; experience sampling method; positive feedback