title: Lava flow hazards at Mount Etna: constraints imposed by eruptive history and numerical simulations.
abstract: Improving lava flow hazard assessment is one of the most important and challenging fields of volcanology, and has an immediate and practical impact on society. Here, we present a methodology for the quantitative assessment of lava flow hazards based on a combination of field data, numerical simulations and probability analyses. With the extensive data available on historic eruptions of Mt. Etna, going back over 2000 years, it has been possible to construct two hazard maps, one for flank and the other for summit eruptions, allowing a quantitative analysis of the most likely future courses of lava flows. The effective use of hazard maps of Etna may help in minimizing the damage from volcanic eruptions through correct land use in densely urbanized area with a population of almost one million people. Although this study was conducted on Mt. Etna, the approach used is designed to be applicable to other volcanic areas.
authors: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania, Osservatorio Etneo, Italy.
authors: Ciro
authors: C
authors: Del Negro
authors: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania, Osservatorio Etneo, Italy.
authors: Annalisa
authors: A
authors: Cappello
authors: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania, Osservatorio Etneo, Italy.
authors: Marco
authors: M
authors: Neri
authors: 1] Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania, Osservatorio Etneo, Italy [2] Dipartimento di Matematica e Informatica, Università di Catania, Catania, Italy.
authors: Giuseppe
authors: G
authors: Bilotta
authors: 1] Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania, Osservatorio Etneo, Italy [2] Conservatoire des Arts et Métiers, Département Ingénierie Mathématique, Paris, France.
authors: Alexis
authors: A
authors: Hérault
authors: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Catania, Osservatorio Etneo, Italy.
authors: Gaetana
authors: G
authors: Ganci