title: On the biogeography of Centipeda: a species-tree diffusion approach.
abstract: Reconstructing the biogeographic history of groups present in continuous arid landscapes is challenging due to the difficulties in defining discrete areas for analyses, and even more so when species largely overlap both in terms of geography and habitat preference. In this study, we use a novel approach to estimate ancestral areas for the small plant genus Centipeda. We apply continuous diffusion of geography by a relaxed random walk where each species is sampled from its extant distribution on an empirical distribution of time-calibrated species-trees. Using a distribution of previously published substitution rates of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) for Asteraceae, we show how the evolution of Centipeda correlates with the temporal increase of aridity in the arid zone since the Pliocene. Geographic estimates of ancestral species show a consistent pattern of speciation of early lineages in the Lake Eyre region, with a division in more northerly and southerly groups since ∼840 ka. Summarizing the geographic slices of species-trees at the time of the latest speciation event (∼20 ka), indicates no presence of the genus in Australia west of the combined desert belt of the Nullabor Plain, the Great Victoria Desert, the Gibson Desert, and the Great Sandy Desert, or beyond the main continental shelf of Australia. The result indicates all western occurrences of the genus to be a result of recent dispersal rather than ancient vicariance. This study contributes to our understanding of the spatiotemporal processes shaping the flora of the arid zone, and offers a significant improvement in inference of ancestral areas for any organismal group distributed where it remains difficult to describe geography in terms of discrete areas.
authors: Department of Botany, Swedish Museum of Natural History, Svante Arrhenius väg 7, SE-104 05 Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, KU Leuven, Minderbroederstraat 10 blok x, box 1030 BE-3000 Leuven, Belgium; School of Biological Sciences, Bangor University, Deiniol Road Bangor Gwynedd, Bangor, LL57 2UW UK; Departments of Biomathematics and Human Genetics, David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA, BOX 951766, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1766, USA; Department of Biostatistics, UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1772, USA; Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Carl Skottsbergs gata 22 B, SE-413 19 Gothenburg, Sweden; and National Herbarium of Victoria, Birdwood Avenue, South Yarra 3141, Australia.
authors: Stephan
authors: S
authors: Nylinder
authors: Philippe
authors: P
authors: Lemey
authors: Mark
authors: M
authors: De Bruyn
authors: Marc A
authors: MA
authors: Suchard
authors: Bernard E
authors: BE
authors: Pfeil
authors: Neville
authors: N
authors: Walsh
authors: Arne A
authors: AA
authors: Anderberg
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D019659:Asteraceae / Q000145:classification* / Q000235:genetics; D001315:Australia; D021903:DNA, Ribosomal Spacer / Q000235:genetics; D010802:Phylogeny; D058974:Phylogeography
chemical_list: D021903:DNA, Ribosomal Spacer
keywords: Australia; BEAST; Centipeda; Pliocene; biogeography; continuous diffusion; species-tree