title: Cancer incidence and mortality projections up to 2020 in Catalonia by means of Bayesian models.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To predict the burden of cancer in Catalonia by 2020 assessing changes in demography and cancer risk during 2010-2020.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data were obtained from Tarragona and Girona cancer registries and Catalan mortality registry. Population age distribution was obtained from the Catalan Institute of Statistics. Predicted cases in Catalonia were estimated through autoregressive Bayesian age-period-cohort models.
  
  
  RESULTS
  There will be diagnosed 26,455 incident cases among men and 18,345 among women during 2020, which means an increase of 22.5 and 24.5 % comparing with the cancer incidence figures of 2010. In men, the increase of cases (22.5 %) can be partitioned in three components: 12 % due to ageing, 8 % due to increase in population size and 2 % due to cancer risk. In women, the role of each component was 9, 8 and 8 %, respectively. The increased risk is mainly expected to be observed in tobacco-related tumours among women and in colorectal and liver cancers among men. During 2010-2020 a mortality decline is expected in both sexes.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The expected increase of cancer incidence, mainly due to tobacco-related tumours in women and colorectal in men, reinforces the need to strengthen smoking prevention and the expansion of early detection of colorectal cancer in Catalonia.
authors: Registre del Càncer de Catalunya, Pla Director d'Oncologia (GENCAT), IDIBELL, Hospital Duran i Reynals, Gran Via 199-203 1ª planta, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, 08908, Barcelona, Spain, j.ribes@iconcologia.net.
authors: J
authors: J
authors: Ribes
authors: L
authors: L
authors: Esteban
authors: R
authors: R
authors: Clèries
authors: J
authors: J
authors: Galceran
authors: R
authors: R
authors: Marcos-Gragera
authors: R
authors: R
authors: Gispert
authors: A
authors: A
authors: Ameijide
authors: M L
authors: ML
authors: Vilardell
authors: J
authors: J
authors: Borras
authors: A
authors: A
authors: Puigdefabregas
authors: M
authors: M
authors: Buxó
authors: A
authors: A
authors: Freitas
authors: A
authors: A
authors: Izquierdo
authors: J M
authors: JM
authors: Borras
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012042:Registries; D017678:Sex Distribution; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology