title: Is Switzerland suitable for the invasion of Aedes albopictus [corrected]?
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Over the last 30 years, the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, has rapidly spread around the world. The European distribution comprises the Mediterranean basin with a first appearance in Switzerland in 2003. Early identification of the most suitable areas in Switzerland allowing progressive invasion by this species is considered crucial to suggest adequate surveillance and control plans.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We identified the most suitable areas for invasion and establishment of Ae. albopictus in Switzerland. The potential distribution areas linked to the current climatic suitability were assessed using remotely sensed land surface temperature data recorded by the MODIS satellite sensors. Suitable areas for adult survival and overwintering of diapausing eggs were also identified for future climatic conditions, considering two different climate change scenarios (A1B, A2) for the periods 2020-2049 and 2045-2074. At present, the areas around Lake Geneva in western Switzerland provide suitable climatic conditions for Ae. albopictus. In northern Switzerland, parts of the Rhine valley, around Lake Constance, as well as the surroundings of Lake Neuchâtel, appear to be suitable for the survival at least of adult Ae. albopictus. However, these areas are characterized by winters currently being too cold for survival and development of diapausing eggs. In southern Switzerland, Ae. albopictus is already well-established, especially in the Canton of Ticino. For the years 2020-2049, the predicted possible spread of the tiger mosquito does not differ significantly from its potential current distribution. However, important expansions are obtained if the period is extended to the years 2045-2074, when Ae. albopictus may invade large new areas.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Several parts of Switzerland provide suitable climatic conditions for invasion and establishment of Ae. albopictus. The current distribution and rapid spread in other European countries suggest that the tiger mosquito will colonize new areas in Switzerland in the near future.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, S. Michele all'Adige (TN), Italy.
authors.forename: Markus
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Neteler
authors.affiliation: Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, S. Michele all'Adige (TN), Italy.
authors.forename: Markus
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Metz
authors.affiliation: Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, S. Michele all'Adige (TN), Italy.
authors.forename: Duccio
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Rocchini
authors.affiliation: Department of Biodiversity and Molecular Ecology, Research and Innovation Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, S. Michele all'Adige (TN), Italy.
authors.forename: Annapaola
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rizzoli
authors.affiliation: Mosquito Working Group, Department of Health, Canton Tessin, Bellinzona, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Eleonora
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Flacio
authors.affiliation: Mosquito Working Group, Department of Health, Canton Tessin, Bellinzona, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Luca
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Engeler
authors.affiliation: Regional Laboratory for Biosafety, Institute of Microbiology, Canton Tessin, Bellinzona, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Valeria
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Guidi
authors.affiliation: Mosquito Working Group, Department of Health, Canton Tessin, Bellinzona, Switzerland ; Institute of Microbiology, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Lüthy
authors.affiliation: Mosquito Working Group, Department of Health, Canton Tessin, Bellinzona, Switzerland ; Regional Laboratory for Biosafety, Institute of Microbiology, Canton Tessin, Bellinzona, Switzerland ; Microbial Ecology Group, Microbiology Unit, Plant Biology Department, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Mauro
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tonolla
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*; D000818:Animals; D017753:Ecosystem; D005843:Geography; D058865:Introduced Species; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012621:Seasons; D013557:Switzerland; D013696:Temperature