title: Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change.
abstract: We compare ensembles of water supply and demand projections from 10 global hydrological models and six global gridded crop models. These are produced as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project, with coordination from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project, and driven by outputs of general circulation models run under representative concentration pathway 8.5 as part of the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Models project that direct climate impacts to maize, soybean, wheat, and rice involve losses of 400-1,400 Pcal (8-24% of present-day total) when CO2 fertilization effects are accounted for or 1,400-2,600 Pcal (24-43%) otherwise. Freshwater limitations in some irrigated regions (western United States; China; and West, South, and Central Asia) could necessitate the reversion of 20-60 Mha of cropland from irrigated to rainfed management by end-of-century, and a further loss of 600-2,900 Pcal of food production. In other regions (northern/eastern United States, parts of South America, much of Europe, and South East Asia) surplus water supply could in principle support a net increase in irrigation, although substantial investments in irrigation infrastructure would be required.
authors.affiliation: University of Chicago Computation Institute, Chicago, IL 60637.
authors.forename: Joshua
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Elliott
authors.forename: Delphine
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Deryng
authors.forename: Christoph
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Müller
authors.forename: Katja
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Frieler
authors.forename: Markus
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Konzmann
authors.forename: Dieter
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Gerten
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Glotter
authors.forename: Martina
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Flörke
authors.forename: Yoshihide
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Wada
authors.forename: Neil
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Best
authors.forename: Stephanie
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Eisner
authors.forename: Balázs M
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Fekete
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Folberth
authors.forename: Ian
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Foster
authors.forename: Simon N
authors.initials: SN
authors.lastname: Gosling
authors.forename: Ingjerd
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Haddeland
authors.forename: Nikolay
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Khabarov
authors.forename: Fulco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Ludwig
authors.forename: Yoshimitsu
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Masaki
authors.forename: Stefan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Olin
authors.forename: Cynthia
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Rosenzweig
authors.forename: Alex C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Ruane
authors.forename: Yusuke
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Satoh
authors.forename: Erwin
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Schmid
authors.forename: Tobias
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Stacke
authors.forename: Qiuhong
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Tang
authors.forename: Dominik
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Wisser
mesh_terms: D057914:Agricultural Irrigation / Q000191:economics / Q000379:methods*; D000383:Agriculture / Q000191:economics / Q000379:methods*; D002245:Carbon Dioxide / Q000032:analysis; D057231:Climate Change; D003198:Computer Simulation; D005544:Forecasting; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014881:Water Supply / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
chemical_list: D002245:Carbon Dioxide
keywords: adaptation; agriculture; hydrology; uncertainty