title: Future Scenarios as a Research Tool: Investigating Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation Options and Outcomes for the Great Barrier Reef, Australia.
abstract: Climate change is a significant future driver of change in coastal social-ecological systems. Our knowledge of impacts, adaptation options, and possible outcomes for marine environments and coastal industries is expanding, but remains limited and uncertain. Alternative scenarios are a way to explore potential futures under a range of conditions. We developed four alternative future scenarios for the Great Barrier Reef and its fishing and tourism industries positing moderate and more extreme (2-3 °C above pre-industrial temperatures) warming for 2050 and contrasting 'limited' and 'ideal' ecological and social adaptation. We presented these scenarios to representatives of key stakeholder groups to assess the perceived viability of different social adaptation options to deliver desirable outcomes under varied contexts.
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Louisa S
authors.initials: LS
authors.lastname: Evans
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia ; School of Business, James Cook University, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Christina C
authors.initials: CC
authors.lastname: Hicks
authors.affiliation: Sustainability Research Centre, University of the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Pedro
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Fidelman
authors.affiliation: Centre for Sustainable Tropical Fisheries and Aquaculture, School of Earth of Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Renae C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Tobin
authors.affiliation: Oceana, C/Leganitos, 47, 28013 Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: Allison L
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Perry
keywords: Adaptation; Australia; Coastal ecosystems; Fishing; Future scenarios; Governance; Great Barrier Reef; Tourism