title: Known unknowns in an imperfect world: incorporating uncertainty in recruitment estimates using multi-event capture-recapture models.
abstract: Studying the demography of wild animals remains challenging as several of the critical parts of their life history may be difficult to observe in the field. In particular, determining with certainty when an individual breeds for the first time is not always obvious. This can be problematic because uncertainty about the transition from a prebreeder to a breeder state - recruitment - leads to uncertainty in vital rate estimates and in turn in population projection models. To avoid this issue, the common practice is to discard imperfect data from the analyses. However, this practice can generate a bias in vital rate estimates if uncertainty is related to a specific component of the population and reduces the sample size of the dataset and consequently the statistical power to detect effects of biological interest. Here, we compared the demographic parameters assessed from a standard multistate capture-recapture approach to the estimates obtained from the newly developed multi-event framework that specifically accounts for uncertainty in state assessment. Using a comprehensive longitudinal dataset on southern elephant seals, we demonstrated that the multi-event model enabled us to use all the data collected (6639 capture-recapture histories vs. 4179 with the multistate model) by accounting for uncertainty in breeding states, thereby increasing the precision and accuracy of the demographic parameter estimates. The multi-event model allowed us to incorporate imperfect data into demographic analyses. The gain in precision obtained has important implications in the conservation and management of species because limiting uncertainty around vital rates will permit predicting population viability with greater accuracy.
authors.affiliation: Marine Predator Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University North Ryde, 2109, New South Wales, Australia.
authors.forename: Marine
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Desprez
authors.affiliation: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania Hobart, 7001, Tasmania, Australia.
authors.forename: Clive R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: McMahon
authors.affiliation: Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania Hobart, 7001, Tasmania, Australia.
authors.forename: Mark A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Hindell
authors.affiliation: Marine Predator Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University North Ryde, 2109, New South Wales, Australia.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Harcourt
authors.affiliation: Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, campus CNRS, UMR 5175 1919 Route de Mende, Montpellier Cedex 5, 34293, France.
authors.forename: Olivier
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Gimenez
keywords: breeding state assignment; multistate capture–recapture models; primiparity; southern elephant seals; state uncertainty; vital rates