title: Ethnic disparities in the association of impaired fasting glucose with the 10-year cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Evidence of ethnic disparities in the conversion of prediabetes to type 2 diabetes is scarce. We studied the association of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) with the 10-year cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes in three ethnic groups.
  
  
  METHODS
  We analyzed data for 90 South-Asian Surinamese, 190 African-Surinamese, and 176 ethnic Dutch that were collected in the periods 2001-2003 and 2011-2012. We excluded those with type 2 diabetes or missing FPG data. We defined baseline IFG as FPG of 5.7-6.9 mmol/L. We defined type 2 diabetes at follow-up as FPG ≥ 7.0 mmol/L, HbA1c ≥ 48 mmol/mol (6.5%), or self-reported type 2 diabetes.
  
  
  RESULTS
  10-Year cumulative incidences of type 2 diabetes were: South-Asian Surinamese, 18.9%; African-Surinamese, 13.7%; ethnic Dutch, 4.5% (p<0.05). The adjusted association of baseline IFG and FPG with the 10-year cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes was stronger for South-Asian Surinamese than for African-Surinamese and ethnic Dutch. The IFG (compared to normoglycaemia) ORs were 11.1 [3.0-40.8] for South-Asian Surinamese, 5.1 [2.0-13.3] for African-Surinamese, and 2.2 [0.5-10.1] for ethnic Dutch.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The 10-year cumulative incidence of type 2 diabetes was higher and associations with baseline IFG and FPG were stronger among South-Asian Surinamese and African-Surinamese than among ethnic Dutch. Our findings confirm the high risk of type 2 diabetes in South-Asians and suggest more rapid conversion in populations of South-Asian origin and (to a lesser extent) African origin than European origin.
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Internal Medicine, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Electronic address: w.m.admiraal@amc.uva.nl.
authors.forename: W M
authors.initials: WM
authors.lastname: Admiraal
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Holleman
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: M B
authors.initials: MB
authors.lastname: Snijder
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: R J G
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Peters
authors.affiliation: Department of Vascular Medicine, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: L M
authors.initials: LM
authors.lastname: Brewster
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: J B L
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Hoekstra
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Stronks
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: I G M
authors.initials: IG
authors.lastname: van Valkengoed
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D044466:Asian People; D044383:Black People; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000032:analysis*; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000097:blood* / Q000208:ethnology* / Q000209:etiology; D005006:Ethnicity; D005215:Fasting / Q000097:blood; D005260:Female; D054624:Health Status Disparities; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D011236:Prediabetic State / Q000097:blood*; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors; D044465:White People
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose
keywords: Ethnicity; IFG; Type 2 diabetes incidence