title: Perspectives on econometric modelling to inform policy: a UK qualitative case study of minimum unit pricing of alcohol.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Novel policy interventions may lack evaluation-based evidence. Considerations to introduce minimum unit pricing (MUP) of alcohol in the UK were informed by econometric modelling (the 'Sheffield model'). We aim to investigate policy stakeholders' views of the utility of modelling studies for public health policy.
  
  
  METHODS
  In-depth qualitative interviews with 36 individuals involved in MUP policy debates (purposively sampled to include civil servants, politicians, academics, advocates and industry-related actors) were conducted and thematically analysed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Interviewees felt familiar with modelling studies and often displayed detailed understandings of the Sheffield model. Despite this, many were uneasy about the extent to which the Sheffield model could be relied on for informing policymaking and preferred traditional evaluations. A tension was identified between this preference for post hoc evaluations and a desire for evidence derived from local data, with modelling seen to offer high external validity. MUP critics expressed concern that the Sheffield model did not adequately capture the 'real life' world of the alcohol market, which was conceptualized as a complex and, to some extent, inherently unpredictable system. Communication of modelling results was considered intrinsically difficult but presenting an appropriate picture of the uncertainties inherent in modelling was viewed as desirable. There was general enthusiasm for increased use of econometric modelling to inform future policymaking but an appreciation that such evidence should only form one input into the process.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Modelling studies are valued by policymakers as they provide contextually relevant evidence for novel policies, but tensions exist with views of traditional evaluation-based evidence.
authors.affiliation: 1 MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, 4 Lilybank Gardens, Glasgow, G12 8RZ, UK2 Public Health and Health Policy, NHS Lothian, Waverley Gate, 2-4 Waterloo Place, Edinburgh, EH1 3EG, UK vkatikireddi@sphsu.mrc.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Srinivasa V
authors.initials: SV
authors.lastname: Katikireddi
authors.affiliation: 1 MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, 4 Lilybank Gardens, Glasgow, G12 8RZ, UK3 Centre of Excellence in Intervention and Prevention Science, 15-31 Pelham Street, Carlton South 3053, Australia.
authors.forename: Lyndal
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Bond
authors.affiliation: 1 MRC/CSO Social and Public Health Sciences Unit, University of Glasgow, 4 Lilybank Gardens, Glasgow, G12 8RZ, UK.
authors.forename: Shona
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hilton
mesh_terms: D000434:Alcoholic Beverages / Q000191:economics*; D006291:Health Policy; D006801:Humans; D017059:Models, Econometric; D011050:Policy Making; D036301:Qualitative Research; D006113:United Kingdom