title: Assessing agricultural risks of climate change in the 21st century in a global gridded crop model intercomparison.
abstract: Here we present the results from an intercomparison of multiple global gridded crop models (GGCMs) within the framework of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project and the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project. Results indicate strong negative effects of climate change, especially at higher levels of warming and at low latitudes; models that include explicit nitrogen stress project more severe impacts. Across seven GGCMs, five global climate models, and four representative concentration pathways, model agreement on direction of yield changes is found in many major agricultural regions at both low and high latitudes; however, reducing uncertainty in sign of response in mid-latitude regions remains a challenge. Uncertainties related to the representation of carbon dioxide, nitrogen, and high temperature effects demonstrated here show that further research is urgently needed to better understand effects of climate change on agricultural production and to devise targeted adaptation strategies.
authors.affiliation: National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025.
authors.forename: Cynthia
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Rosenzweig
authors.forename: Joshua
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Elliott
authors.forename: Delphine
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Deryng
authors.forename: Alex C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Ruane
authors.forename: Christoph
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Müller
authors.forename: Almut
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Arneth
authors.forename: Kenneth J
authors.initials: KJ
authors.lastname: Boote
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Folberth
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Glotter
authors.forename: Nikolay
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Khabarov
authors.forename: Kathleen
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Neumann
authors.forename: Franziska
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Piontek
authors.forename: Thomas A M
authors.initials: TA
authors.lastname: Pugh
authors.forename: Erwin
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Schmid
authors.forename: Elke
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Stehfest
authors.forename: Hong
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.forename: James W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Jones
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D057231:Climate Change; D003198:Computer Simulation; D018556:Crops, Agricultural / Q000254:growth & development*; D005544:Forecasting; D005843:Geography; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009584:Nitrogen / Q000032:analysis*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013696:Temperature
chemical_list: D009584:Nitrogen
keywords: AgMIP; ISI-MIP; agriculture; climate impacts; food security