title: Economic risk analysis model for bovine viral diarrhea virus biosecurity in cow-calf herds.
abstract: A stochastic model was designed to calculate the cost-effectiveness of biosecurity strategies for bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in cow-calf herds. Possible sources of BVDV introduction considered were imported animals, including the calves of pregnant imports, and fenceline contact with infected herds, including stocker cattle raised in adjacent pastures. Spread of BVDV through the herd was modeled with a stochastic SIR model. Financial consequences of BVDV, including lost income, treatment costs, and the cost of biosecurity strategies, were calculated for 10 years, based on the risks of a herd with a user-defined import profile. Results indicate that importing pregnant animals and stockers increased the financial risk of BVDV. Strategic testing in combination with vaccination most decreased the risk of high-cost outbreaks in most herds. The choice of a biosecurity strategy was specific to the risks of a particular herd.
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Sciences, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66502, United States.
authors.forename: Rebecca L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.affiliation: Department of Diagnostic Medicine and Pathobiology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66502, United States. Electronic address: sandersn@vet.k-state.edu.
authors.forename: Michael W
authors.initials: MW
authors.lastname: Sanderson
authors.affiliation: Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66502, United States.
authors.forename: Rodney
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Jones
authors.affiliation: Department of Agricultural Economics, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66502, United States.
authors.forename: Yapo
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: N'Guessan
authors.affiliation: Department of Diagnostic Medicine and Pathobiology, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66502, United States.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Renter
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Sciences, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66502, United States.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Larson
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Sciences, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66502, United States.
authors.forename: Brad J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: White
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001912:Bovine Virus Diarrhea-Mucosal Disease / Q000191:economics* / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000821:virology; D002353:Carrier State / Q000191:economics / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000662:veterinary* / Q000821:virology; D002417:Cattle; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D001908:Diarrhea Viruses, Bovine Viral / Q000502:physiology*; D005260:Female; D008297:Male; D018803:Models, Economic; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D015995:Prevalence; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D014481:United States
keywords: Beef; Bovine viral diarrhea virus; Economics; Modeling; Risk-analysis