title: Impress your friends and predict the final score: an analysis of the psychic ability of four target resetting methods used in one-day international cricket.
abstract: One-Day cricket's eternal problem is how to fairly account for an interruption that occurs during a team's innings. Several methods have been applied in the past, some more successfully than others. Numerous articles have been written about different target resetting methods applicable in one-day international cricket and how they "favour "one team over another. In this paper we use an alternative approach looking at the psychic ability of four target resetting methods and compare how well they predict the final score based on the present state of the first innings. We attempt to convert each of methods we investigate into a ball-by-ball predictive tool. We introduce a terminal interruption to the first innings at every ball and compute the predicted final score. We ascribe a nominal value to the difference between the final achieved score and the prediction given by each method. We compute our own 'Psychic Metric' to enable a comparison between the four methods. We also develop a computer package to manipulate the data from matches in which the first innings was completed. Key PointsPredicting the final score.Creation of a method of comparison.Rain rules comparisons.
authors.affiliation: School of Mathematical Sciences, Monash University , Australia.
authors.forename: Barbara J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: O'Riley
authors.affiliation: School of Mathematical Sciences, Monash University , Australia.
authors.forename: Mathew
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ovens
keywords: Cricket; predicting scores; psychic abilities