title: The origins of probabilistic inference in human infants.
abstract: Reasoning under uncertainty is the bread and butter of everyday life. Many areas of psychology, from cognitive, developmental, social, to clinical, are interested in how individuals make inferences and decisions with incomplete information. The ability to reason under uncertainty necessarily involves probability computations, be they exact calculations or estimations. What are the developmental origins of probabilistic reasoning? Recent work has begun to examine whether infants and toddlers can compute probabilities; however, previous experiments have confounded quantity and probability-in most cases young human learners could have relied on simple comparisons of absolute quantities, as opposed to proportions, to succeed in these tasks. We present four experiments providing evidence that infants younger than 12 months show sensitivity to probabilities based on proportions. Furthermore, infants use this sensitivity to make predictions and fulfill their own desires, providing the first demonstration that even preverbal learners use probabilistic information to navigate the world. These results provide strong evidence for a rich quantitative and statistical reasoning system in infants.
authors.affiliation: University of Waterloo, Department of Psychology, Canada. Electronic address: stephanie.denison@uwaterloo.ca.
authors.forename: Stephanie
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Denison
authors.affiliation: University of California, Berkeley, Department of Psychology, USA. Electronic address: fei_xu@berkeley.edu.
authors.forename: Fei
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Xu
mesh_terms: D002657:Child Development; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007858:Learning / Q000502:physiology*; D008297:Male; D008606:Mental Processes / Q000502:physiology*; D010775:Photic Stimulation; D011340:Problem Solving; D035501:Uncertainty
keywords: Action methodology; Infant learning; Probabilistic reasoning; Single-event probability; Statistical inference