title: A model of bi-mode transmission dynamics of hepatitis C with optimal control.
abstract: In this paper, we present a rigorous mathematical analysis of a deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of hepatitis C. The model is suitable for populations where two frequent modes of transmission of hepatitis C virus, namely unsafe blood transfusions and intravenous drug use, are dominant. The susceptible population is divided into two distinct compartments, the intravenous drug users and individuals undergoing unsafe blood transfusions. Individuals belonging to each compartment may develop acute and then possibly chronic infections. Chronically infected individuals may be quarantined. The analysis indicates that the eradication and persistence of the disease is completely determined by the magnitude of basic reproduction number R(c). It is shown that for the basic reproduction number R(c) < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable. For R(c) > 1, an endemic equilibrium exists and the disease is uniformly persistent. In addition, we present the uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to investigate the influence of different important model parameters on the disease prevalence. When the infected population persists, we have designed a time-dependent optimal quarantine strategy to minimize it. The Pontryagin's Maximum Principle is used to characterize the optimal control in terms of an optimality system which is solved numerically. Numerical results for the optimal control are compared against the constant controls and their efficiency is discussed.
authors.affiliation: Lahore University of Management Sciences, Sector U DHA, Lahore, Pakistan, mudassar.imran@lums.edu.pk.
authors.forename: Mudassar
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Imran
authors.forename: Hassan
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Rafique
authors.forename: Adnan
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Khan
authors.forename: Tufail
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Malik
mesh_terms: D050936:Basic Reproduction Number / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D001803:Blood Transfusion / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006526:Hepatitis C / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012307:Risk Factors; D015819:Substance Abuse, Intravenous / Q000453:epidemiology*