title: Predicting the geographic distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) and visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil.
abstract: To understand the geographic distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil, both the climatic niches of Lutzomyia longipalpis and VL cases were analysed. Distributional data were obtained from 55 of the 79 counties of MS between 2003-2012. Ecological niche models (ENM) of Lu. longipalpis and VL cases were produced using the maximum entropy algorithm based on eight climatic variables. Lu. longipalpis showed a wide distribution in MS. The highest climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis was observed in southern MS. Temperature seasonality and annual mean precipitation were the variables that most influenced these models. Two areas of high climatic suitability for the occurrence of VL cases were predicted: one near Aquidauana and another encompassing several municipalities in the southeast region of MS. As expected, a large overlap between the models for Lu. longipalpis and VL cases was detected. Northern and northwestern areas of MS were suitable for the occurrence of cases, but did not show high climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis. ENM of vectors and human cases provided a greater understanding of the geographic distribution of VL in MS, which can be applied to the development of future surveillance strategies.
authors.affiliation: Faculdade de Ciências Biológicas e Ambientais, Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados, Brasil, DouradosMS.
authors.forename: Paulo Silva de
authors.initials: PS
authors.lastname: Almeida
authors.affiliation: Faculdade de Ciências Biológicas e Ambientais, Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados, Brasil, DouradosMS.
authors.forename: Alan
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Sciamarelli
authors.affiliation: Gerência de Zoonoses, Diretoria Geral de Vigilância em Saúde, Secretaria de Estado de Saúde, Brasil, Campo GrandeMS.
authors.forename: Paulo Mira
authors.initials: PM
authors.lastname: Batista
authors.affiliation: Coordenadoria de Controle de Vetores, Secretaria de Estado de Saúde, Brasil, Campo GrandeMS.
authors.forename: Ademar Dimas
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Ferreira
authors.affiliation: Coordenadoria de Controle de Vetores, Secretaria de Estado de Saúde, Brasil, Campo GrandeMS.
authors.forename: João
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Nascimento
authors.affiliation: Faculdade de Ciências Biológicas e Ambientais, Universidade Federal da Grande Dourados, Brasil, DouradosMS.
authors.forename: Josué
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Raizer
authors.affiliation: Centro de Pesquisas René Rachou, Fiocruz, Brasil, Belo HorizonteMG.
authors.forename: José Dilermando
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Andrade Filho
authors.affiliation: Laboratório de Parasitologia Médica e Biologia de Vetores, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade de Brasília, Brasil, BrasíliaDF.
authors.forename: Rodrigo
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Gurgel-Gonçalves
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001938:Brazil; D002980:Climate; D062306:Geography, Medical; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000145:classification*; D007898:Leishmaniasis, Visceral / Q000635:transmission; D011156:Population Density; D011576:Psychodidae / Q000145:classification*; D012621:Seasons