title: Prognostic model for distant metastasis in locally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma after concurrent chemoradiotherapy.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  A prognostic model should be established for distant metastasis in locally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) after concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT).
  
  
  METHODS
  Patients with locally advanced NPC who received CCRT were divided into a construction set (230 patients) and a validating set (115 patients). The constructed index was derived on the former and then tested on the latter.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The prognostic score was defined as the number of adverse prognostic factors: age >45, N3 category, hemoglobin <11.0 g/dL and lactate dehydrogenase ≥240 U/L. The score predicted the 5-year distant metastasis-free survival as follows: 0, 91%; 1, 74%; 2, 51%; and ≥3, 12%. In the validating set, the observed 5-year distant metastasis-free survival of these 4 groups with scores of 0, 1, 2, 3, or higher were 81%, 68%, 47%, and 15%, respectively.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The established model might be useful for predicting the risk of distant metastasis in patients with locally advanced NPC who underwent CCRT and may identify the patients' need for intensified adjuvant chemotherapy.
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Hospital of Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, Guangdong, China.
authors.forename: Chuangzhen
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Siqia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Quynh-Thu
authors.initials: QT
authors.lastname: Le
authors.forename: Jianzhou
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Zhijian
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Dongsheng
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Mingzhen
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.forename: Derui
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Li
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D002277:Carcinoma / Q000473:pathology* / Q000628:therapy*; D059248:Chemoradiotherapy; D005260:Female; D006454:Hemoglobins / Q000032:analysis; D006801:Humans; D007770:L-Lactate Dehydrogenase / Q000097:blood; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009303:Nasopharyngeal Neoplasms / Q000473:pathology* / Q000628:therapy*; D009362:Neoplasm Metastasis; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies
chemical_list: D006454:Hemoglobins; D007770:L-Lactate Dehydrogenase
keywords: distant metastasis; model; nasopharyngeal cancer; prognosis; radiotherapy