title: Multimillion-year climatic effects on palm species diversity in Africa.
abstract: Past climatic changes have caused extinction, speciation, and range dynamics, but assessing the influence of past multimillion-year climatic imprints on present-day biodiversity patterns remains challenging. We analyzed a new continental-scale data set to examine the importance of paleoclimatic effects on current gradients in African palm richness patterns. Using climate reconstructions from the late Miocene (-10 mya), the Pliocene (-3 mya), and the Last Glacial Maximum (0.021 mya), we found that African palm diversity patterns exhibit pronounced historical legacies related to long-term climate change. Notably, pre-Pleistocene paleoprecipitation variables differentially affected current diversity patterns of palms grouped by contrasting habitat requirements. Accounting for present-day environment, rain forest palms exhibit greater species richness in localities where Pliocene precipitation was relatively high, whereas open-habitat palms show higher species richness in areas of relatively low precipitation during the Miocene Epoch. Our results demonstrate that diversity-climate relationships among African palm species include multimillion-year lagged dynamics, i.e., with historical legacies persisting across much longer time periods than commonly recognized.
authors.affiliation: Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity Group, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark. anne.overgaard@biology.au.dk
authors.forename: Anne
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Blach-Overgaard
authors.affiliation: Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity Group, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark.
authors.forename: W Daniel
authors.initials: WD
authors.lastname: Kissling
authors.affiliation: The Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, Richmond, Surrey TW93AB United Kingdom.
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Dransfield
authors.affiliation: Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity Group, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark.
authors.forename: Henrik
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Balslev
authors.affiliation: Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity Group, Department of Bioscience, Aarhus University, Ny Munkegade 114, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark.
authors.forename: Jens-Christian
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Svenning
mesh_terms: D000349:Africa; D028023:Arecaceae / Q000235:genetics* / Q000502:physiology*; D057231:Climate Change; D003710:Demography; D014644:Genetic Variation; D013045:Species Specificity; D013997:Time Factors