title: PROgnosticating COeliac patieNts SUrvivaL: the PROCONSUL score.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  It has been shown that mortality rates of coeliac patients correlate with age at diagnosis of coeliac disease, diagnostic delay for coeliac disease, pattern of clinical presentation and HLA typing. Our aim was to create a tool that identifies coeliac patients at higher risk of developing complications.
  
  
  METHODS
  To identify predictors of complications in patients with coeliac disease, we organised an observational multicenter case-control study based on a retrospective collection of clinical data. Clinical data from 116 cases (patients with complicated coeliac disease) and 181 controls (coeliac patients without any complications) were collected from seven European centres. For each case, one or two controls, matched to cases according to the year of assessment, gender and age, were selected. Diagnostic delay, pattern of clinical presentation, HLA typing and age at diagnosis were used as predictors.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Differences between cases and controls were detected for diagnostic delay and classical presentation. Conditional logistic models based on these statistically different predictors allowed the development of a score system. Tertiles analysis showed a relationship between score and risk of developing complications.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A score that shows the risk of a newly diagnosed coeliac patient developing complications was devised for the first time. This will make it possible to set up the follow-up of coeliac patients with great benefits not only for their health but also for management of economic resources.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We think that our results are very encouraging and represent the first attempt to build a prognostic score for coeliac patients.
authors.affiliation: Coeliac Centre/First Department of Internal Medicine, Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: Federico
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Biagi
authors.affiliation: Coeliac Centre/First Department of Internal Medicine, Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: Annalisa
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Schiepatti
authors.affiliation: Gastroenterology Department, Hôpital Européen Georges Pompidou, Université Paris Descartes, Paris, France.
authors.forename: Georgia
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Malamut
authors.affiliation: Coeliac Centre/First Department of Internal Medicine, Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: Alessandra
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Marchese
authors.affiliation: Gastroenterology Department, Hôpital Européen Georges Pompidou, Université Paris Descartes, Paris, France.
authors.forename: Christophe
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Cellier
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Sjoerd F
authors.initials: SF
authors.lastname: Bakker
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Chris J J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Mulder
authors.affiliation: Coeliac Centre/Department of Clinical Medicine, St Orsola-Malpighi University Hospital, Bologna, Italy.
authors.forename: Umberto
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Volta
authors.affiliation: Gastrointestinal Unit, Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Salerno, Salerno, Italy.
authors.forename: Fabiana
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Zingone
authors.affiliation: Gastrointestinal Unit, Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Salerno, Salerno, Italy.
authors.forename: Carolina
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ciacci
authors.affiliation: Department of Surgical and Gastroenterological Sciences, University of Padua, Padua, Italy.
authors.forename: Anna
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: D'Odorico
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastro-Hepatology, AOU San Giovanni Battista Molinette, University of Turin, Turin, Italy.
authors.forename: Alida
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Andrealli
authors.affiliation: Department of Gastro-Hepatology, AOU San Giovanni Battista Molinette, University of Turin, Turin, Italy.
authors.forename: Marco
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Astegiano
authors.affiliation: Biometry and Clinical Epidemiology, Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: Catherine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Klersy
authors.affiliation: Coeliac Centre/First Department of Internal Medicine, Fondazione IRCCS Policlinico San Matteo, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy.
authors.forename: Gino R
authors.initials: GR
authors.lastname: Corazza
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D002446:Celiac Disease / Q000150:complications / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality*; D057210:Delayed Diagnosis; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors