title: Risk identification and prediction of coal workers' pneumoconiosis in Kailuan Colliery Group in China: a historical cohort study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Prior to 1970, coal mining technology and prevention measures in China were poor. Mechanized coal mining equipment and advanced protection measures were continuously installed in the mines after 1970. All these improvements may have resulted in a change in the incidence of coal workers' pneumoconiosis (CWP). Therefore, it is important to identify the characteristics of CWP today and trends for the incidence of CWP in the future.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 17,023 coal workers from the Kailuan Colliery Group were studied. A life-table method was used to calculate the cumulative incidence rate of CWP and predict the number of new CWP patients in the future. The probability of developing CWP was estimated by a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network for each coal worker without CWP. The results showed that the cumulative incidence rates of CWP for tunneling, mining, combining, and helping workers were 31.8%, 27.5%, 24.2%, and 2.6%, respectively, during the same observation period of 40 years. It was estimated that there would be 844 new CWP cases among 16,185 coal workers without CWP within their life expectancy. There would be 273.1, 273.1, 227.6, and 69.9 new CWP patients in the next <10, 10-, 20-, and 30- years respectively in the study cohort within their life expectancy. It was identified that coal workers whose risk probabilities were over 0.2 were at high risk for CWP, and whose risk probabilities were under 0.1 were at low risk.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The present and future incidence trends of CWP remain high among coal workers. We suggest that coal workers at high risk of CWP undergo a physical examination for pneumoconiosis every year, and the coal workers at low risk of CWP be examined every 5 years.
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, Liaoning, P.R. China ; School of Public Health, Hebei United University, Tangshan, Hebei, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Fuhai
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Shen
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Hebei United University, Tangshan, Hebei, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Juxiang
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Yuan
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Hebei United University, Tangshan, Hebei, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Zhiqian
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Hebei United University, Tangshan, Hebei, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Zhengbing
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Hua
authors.affiliation: Occupational Disease Prevention and Treatment Hospital of Kailuan Colliery Group, Tangshan, Hebei, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Tianbang
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Qin
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Hebei United University, Tangshan, Hebei, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Sanqiao
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Yao
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Hebei United University, Tangshan, Hebei, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Xueyun
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Fan
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Weihong
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, Liaoning, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Hongbo
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, Liaoning, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Jie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Chen
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D003032:Coal Mining / Q000266:history / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D015331:Cohort Studies; D004391:Dust / Q000032:analysis; D049673:History, 20th Century; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008875:Middle Aged; D011009:Pneumoconiosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000266:history*; D011336:Probability; D018570:Risk Assessment; D000078329:Workforce; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D004391:Dust