title: Quantifying and valuing potential climate change impacts on coral reefs in the United States: comparison of two scenarios.
abstract: The biological and economic values of coral reefs are highly vulnerable to increasing atmospheric and ocean carbon dioxide concentrations. We applied the COMBO simulation model (COral Mortality and Bleaching Output) to three major U.S. locations for shallow water reefs: South Florida, Puerto Rico, and Hawaii. We compared estimates of future coral cover from 2000 to 2100 for a "business as usual" (BAU) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario with a GHG mitigation policy scenario involving full international participation in reducing GHG emissions. We also calculated the economic value of changes in coral cover using a benefit transfer approach based on published studies of consumers' recreational values for snorkeling and diving on coral reefs as well as existence values for coral reefs. Our results suggest that a reduced emissions scenario would provide a large benefit to shallow water reefs in Hawaii by delaying or avoiding potential future bleaching events. For Hawaii, reducing emissions is projected to result in an estimated "avoided loss" from 2000 to 2100 of approximately $10.6 billion in recreational use values compared to a BAU scenario. However, reducing emissions is projected to provide only a minor economic benefit in Puerto Rico and South Florida, where sea-surface temperatures are already close to bleaching thresholds and coral cover is projected to drop well below 5% cover under both scenarios by 2050, and below 1% cover under both scenarios by 2100.
authors.affiliation: Stratus Consulting Inc., Boulder, Colorado, United States of America.
authors.forename: Diana R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Lane
authors.affiliation: Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
authors.forename: Richard C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Ready
authors.affiliation: Kansas Geological Survey, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America.
authors.forename: Robert W
authors.initials: RW
authors.lastname: Buddemeier
authors.affiliation: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change Division (6207-J), Washington, D. C., United States of America.
authors.forename: Jeremy A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Martinich
authors.affiliation: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change Division (6207-J), Washington, D. C., United States of America.
authors.forename: Kate Cardamone
authors.initials: KC
authors.lastname: Shouse
authors.affiliation: Stratus Consulting Inc., Boulder, Colorado, United States of America.
authors.forename: Cameron W
authors.initials: CW
authors.lastname: Wobus
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change / Q000191:economics; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends; D057894:Coral Reefs; D005431:Florida; D057232:Global Warming / Q000191:economics / Q000517:prevention & control; D017752:Greenhouse Effect / Q000191:economics / Q000517:prevention & control; D006254:Hawaii; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D018803:Models, Economic; D011647:Puerto Rico; D011998:Recreation; D014481:United States