title: Mortality and its predictors among antiretroviral therapy naïve HIV-infected individuals with CD4 cell count ≥350 cells/mm(3) compared to the general population: data from a population-based prospective HIV cohort in Uganda.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Evidence exists that even at high CD4 counts, mortality among HIV-infected antiretroviral therapy (ART) naïve individuals is higher than that in the general population. However, many developing countries still initiate ART at CD4 ≤350 cells/mm(3).
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To compare mortality among HIV-infected ART naïve individuals with CD4 counts ≥350 cells/mm(3) with mortality in the general Ugandan population and to investigate risk factors for death.
  
  
  METHODS
  Population-based prospective HIV cohort.
  
  
  METHODS
  The study population consisted of HIV-infected people in rural southwest Uganda. Patients were reviewed at the study clinic every 3 months. CD4 cell count was measured every 6 months. Rate ratios were estimated using Poisson regression. Indirect methods were used to calculate standardised mortality ratios (SMRs).
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 374 participants with CD4 ≥350 cells/mm(3) were followed for 1,328 person-years (PY) over which 27 deaths occurred. Mortality rates (MRs) (per 1,000 PY) were 20.34 (95% CI: 13.95-29.66) among all participants and 16.43 (10.48-25.75) among participants aged 15-49 years. Mortality was higher in periods during which participants had CD4 350-499 cells/mm(3) than during periods of CD4 ≥500 cells/mm(3) although the difference was not statistically significant [adjusted rate ratio (aRR)=1.52; 95% CI: 0.71-3.25]. Compared to the general Ugandan population aged 15-49 years, MRs were 123% higher among participants with CD4 ≥500 cells/mm(3) (SMR: 223%, 95% CI: 127-393%) and 146% higher among participants with CD4 350-499 cells/mm(3) (246%, 117%-516). After adjusting for current age, mortality was associated with increasing WHO clinical stage (aRR comparing stage 3 or 4 and stage 1: 10.18, 95% CI: 3.82-27.15) and decreasing body mass index (BMI) (aRR comparing categories ≤17.4 Kg/m(2) and ≥18.5 Kg/m(2): 6.11, 2.30-16.20).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  HIV-infected ART naïve individuals with CD4 count ≥350 cells/mm(3) had a higher mortality than the general population. After adjusting for age, the main predictors of mortality were WHO clinical stage and BMI.
authors.affiliation: MRC/UVRI Uganda Research Unit on AIDS, Entebbe, Uganda; ben.masiira@mrcuganda.org.
authors.forename: Ben
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Masiira
authors.affiliation: Tropical Epidemiology Group, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
authors.forename: Kathy
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Baisley
authors.affiliation: MRC/UVRI Uganda Research Unit on AIDS, Entebbe, Uganda.
authors.forename: Billy N
authors.initials: BN
authors.lastname: Mayanja
authors.affiliation: MRC/UVRI Uganda Research Unit on AIDS, Entebbe, Uganda.
authors.forename: Patrick
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Kazooba
authors.affiliation: MRC/UVRI Uganda Research Unit on AIDS, Entebbe, Uganda.
authors.forename: Dermot
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Maher
authors.affiliation: MRC/UVRI Uganda Research Unit on AIDS, Entebbe, Uganda; Tropical Epidemiology Group, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
authors.forename: Pontiano
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Kaleebu
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D019380:Anti-HIV Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D018791:CD4 Lymphocyte Count / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000401:mortality*; D006801:Humans; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D014454:Uganda / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D019380:Anti-HIV Agents
keywords: CD4 cell count ≥350 cells per mm3; HIV-infected; antiretroviral therapy naïve; general population; mortality; rural Uganda