title: Short-term forecasting of Taiwanese earthquakes using a universal model of fusion-fission processes.
abstract: Predicting how large an earthquake can be, where and when it will strike remains an elusive goal in spite of the ever-increasing volume of data collected by earth scientists. In this paper, we introduce a universal model of fusion-fission processes that can be used to predict earthquakes starting from catalog data. We show how the equilibrium dynamics of this model very naturally explains the Gutenberg-Richter law. Using the high-resolution earthquake catalog of Taiwan between Jan 1994 and Feb 2009, we illustrate how out-of-equilibrium spatio-temporal signatures in the time interval between earthquakes and the integrated energy released by earthquakes can be used to reliably determine the times, magnitudes, and locations of large earthquakes, as well as the maximum numbers of large aftershocks that would follow.
authors.affiliation: 1] Division of Physics and Applied Physics, School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 21 Nanyang Link, Singapore 637371, Republic of Singapore [2] Complexity Program, Nanyang Technological University, 60 Nanyang View, Singapore 639673, Republic of Singapore.
authors.forename: Siew Ann
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Cheong
authors.affiliation: Division of Physics and Applied Physics, School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 21 Nanyang Link, Singapore 637371, Republic of Singapore.
authors.forename: Teck Liang
authors.initials: TL
authors.lastname: Tan
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth Sciences and Institute of Geophysics, National Central University, 300 Jhongda Road, Jhongli, 32001 Taiwan.
authors.forename: Chien-Chih
authors.initials: CC
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth Sciences and Institute of Geophysics, National Central University, 300 Jhongda Road, Jhongli, 32001 Taiwan.
authors.forename: Wu-Lung
authors.initials: WL
authors.lastname: Chang
authors.affiliation: Division of Physics and Applied Physics, School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 21 Nanyang Link, Singapore 637371, Republic of Singapore.
authors.forename: Zheng
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: 1] Division of Physics and Applied Physics, School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 21 Nanyang Link, Singapore 637371, Republic of Singapore [2] Complexity Program, Nanyang Technological University, 60 Nanyang View, Singapore 639673, Republic of Singapore.
authors.forename: Lock Yue
authors.initials: LY
authors.lastname: Chew
authors.affiliation: 1] Computational Science, University of Amsterdam, Science Park 904, Amsterdam, The Netherlands [2] National Research Institute ITMO, Kronverkskiy 49, 197101 St. Petersburg, Russian Federation [3] Complexity Program, Nanyang Technological University, 60 Nanyang View, Singapore 639673, Republic of Singapore.
authors.forename: Peter M A
authors.initials: PM
authors.lastname: Sloot
authors.affiliation: Department of Physics, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33124, United States of America.
authors.forename: Neil F
authors.initials: NF
authors.lastname: Johnson