title: A behavioural dynamic model of the relative age effect.
abstract: The relationship between date of birth and success in a variety of sports, including hockey, is well established. This phenomenon is known as the relative age effect (RAE). We model the RAE in Canadian youth hockey as a positive feedback loop where an initial age advantage is reinforced through additional training and playing opportunities based on perceived skill superiority. The same causal mechanism leads to a higher quit rate for relatively younger players. Our model effectively replicates the birth month distribution of Canadian National Hockey League players (R2 = 86.79%) when driven by Canadian birth distributions. We use this model to evaluate three policies that aim to lessen the RAE. All of the policies reduce the RAE with a significant delay. The most effective policy is a combination of providing additional support to age disadvantaged children and rotating the cut-off date for youth leagues between January 1st and July 1st annually. In equilibrium, this approach leads to a 96% reduction in the RAE compared to the base case.
authors.affiliation: a Atkinson Graduate School of Management , Willamette University , Salem , OR 97301 , USA.
authors.forename: Kawika
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Pierson
authors.forename: Vittorio
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Addona
authors.forename: Philip
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Yates
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000294:Adolescent Behavior; D000367:Age Factors; D002170:Canada; D002648:Child; D002652:Child Behavior; D005246:Feedback; D006688:Hockey / Q000502:physiology*; D006801:Humans; D008960:Models, Psychological; D009048:Motor Skills / Q000502:physiology*; D010806:Physical Education and Training; D011627:Puberty