title: Serial position effects are sensitive predictors of conversion from MCI to Alzheimer's disease dementia.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  It is unclear whether the predictive strength of established cognitive variables for progression to Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) varies depending on time to conversion. We investigated which cognitive variables were best predictors, and which of these variables remained predictive for patients with longer times to conversion.
  
  
  METHODS
  Seventy-five participants with MCI were assessed on measures of learning, memory, language, and executive function. Relative predictive strengths of these measures were analyzed using Cox regression models.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Measures of word-list position-namely, serial position scores-together with Short Delay Free Recall of word-list learning best predicted conversion to AD dementia. However, only serial position scores predicted those participants with longer time to conversion.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Results emphasize that the predictive strength of cognitive variables varies depending on time to conversion to dementia. Moreover, finer measures of learning captured by serial position scores were the most sensitive predictors of AD dementia.
authors.affiliation: Memory Clinic, University Center for Medicine of Aging Basel, Felix Platter-Hospital, Basel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Simone C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Egli
authors.affiliation: Memory Clinic, University Center for Medicine of Aging Basel, Felix Platter-Hospital, Basel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Irene R
authors.initials: IR
authors.lastname: Beck
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics and Technology, University of Applied Sciences Koblenz, Koblenz, Germany.
authors.forename: Manfred
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Berres
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, Queens College and The Graduate Center, The City University of New York, Flushing, NY, USA.
authors.forename: Nancy S
authors.initials: NS
authors.lastname: Foldi
authors.affiliation: Memory Clinic, University Center for Medicine of Aging Basel, Felix Platter-Hospital, Basel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Andreas U
authors.initials: AU
authors.lastname: Monsch
authors.affiliation: Memory Clinic, University Center for Medicine of Aging Basel, Felix Platter-Hospital, Basel, Switzerland; Department of Neurology, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland. Electronic address: Marc.Sollberger@usb.ch.
authors.forename: Marc
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sollberger
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000544:Alzheimer Disease / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000523:psychology*; D060825:Cognitive Dysfunction / Q000523:psychology*; D018450:Disease Progression; D056344:Executive Function; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007802:Language; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008568:Memory; D009483:Neuropsychological Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012044:Regression Analysis; D013998:Time Perception
keywords: Aging; Alzheimer's disease; Dementia; Mild cognitive impairment; Serial position effects; Verbal episodic memory