title: Toward integrative management advice of water quality, oil spills, and fishery in the Gulf of Finland: a Bayesian approach.
abstract: Understanding and managing ecosystems affected by several anthropogenic stressors require methods that enable analyzing the joint effects of different factors in one framework. Further, as scientific knowledge about natural systems is loaded with uncertainty, it is essential that analyses are based on a probabilistic approach. We describe in this article about building a Bayesian decision model, which includes three stressors present in the Gulf of Finland. The outcome of the integrative model is a set of probability distributions for future nutrient concentrations, herring stock biomass, and achieving the water quality targets set by HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan. These distributions can then be used to derive the probability of reaching the management targets for each alternative combination of management actions.
authors.affiliation: Fisheries and Environmental Management Group (FEM), Department of Environmental Sciences, Helsinki University Centre for Environment (HENVI) and Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Viikinkaari 2a, P.O. Box 65, 00014, Helsinki, Finland, mika.rahikainen@helsinki.fi.
authors.forename: Mika
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Rahikainen
authors.forename: Inari
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Helle
authors.forename: Päivi
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Haapasaari
authors.forename: Soile
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Oinonen
authors.forename: Sakari
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kuikka
authors.forename: Jarno
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Vanhatalo
authors.forename: Samu
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Mäntyniemi
authors.forename: Kirsi-Maaria
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Hoviniemi
mesh_terms: D001454:Baltic States; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D017753:Ecosystem; D005387:Finland; D005398:Fisheries; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D059392:Petroleum Pollution; D060753:Water Quality