title: Animal reservoir, natural and socioeconomic variations and the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Chenzhou, China, 2006-2010.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  China has the highest incidence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) worldwide. Reported cases account for 90% of the total number of global cases. By 2010, approximately 1.4 million HFRS cases had been reported in China. This study aimed to explore the effect of the rodent reservoir, and natural and socioeconomic variables, on the transmission pattern of HFRS.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Data on monthly HFRS cases were collected from 2006 to 2010. Dynamic rodent monitoring data, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, climate data, and socioeconomic data were also obtained. Principal component analysis was performed, and the time-lag relationships between the extracted principal components and HFRS cases were analyzed. Polynomial distributed lag (PDL) models were used to fit and forecast HFRS transmission. Four principal components were extracted. Component 1 (F1) represented rodent density, the NDVI, and monthly average temperature. Component 2 (F2) represented monthly average rainfall and monthly average relative humidity. Component 3 (F3) represented rodent density and monthly average relative humidity. The last component (F4) represented gross domestic product and the urbanization rate. F2, F3, and F4 were significantly correlated, with the monthly HFRS incidence with lags of 4 months (r = -0.289, P<0.05), 5 months (r = -0.523, P<0.001), and 0 months (r = -0.376, P<0.01), respectively. F1 was correlated with the monthly HFRS incidence, with a lag of 4 months (r = 0.179, P = 0.192). Multivariate PDL modeling revealed that the four principal components were significantly associated with the transmission of HFRS.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The monthly trend in HFRS cases was significantly associated with the local rodent reservoir, climatic factors, the NDVI, and socioeconomic conditions present during the previous months. The findings of this study may facilitate the development of early warning systems for the control and prevention of HFRS and similar diseases.
authors.affiliation: College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China.
authors.forename: Hong
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Xiao
authors.affiliation: College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China ; School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Huai-Yu
authors.initials: HY
authors.lastname: Tian
authors.affiliation: Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China.
authors.forename: Li-Dong
authors.initials: LD
authors.lastname: Gao
authors.affiliation: College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China.
authors.forename: Hai-Ning
authors.initials: HN
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Chenzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chenzhou, China.
authors.forename: Liang-Song
authors.initials: LS
authors.lastname: Duan
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America ; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America.
authors.forename: Nicole
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Basta
authors.affiliation: Ecologie and Evolution, UMR 7625, UPMC-ENS, Paris, France ; UMMISCO UMI 209 IRD - UPMC, Bondy, France.
authors.forename: Bernard
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Cazelles
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
authors.forename: Xiu-Jun
authors.initials: XJ
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China.
authors.forename: Xiao-Ling
authors.initials: XL
authors.lastname: Lin
authors.affiliation: Chenzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chenzhou, China.
authors.forename: Hong-Wei
authors.initials: HW
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China.
authors.forename: Bi-Yun
authors.initials: BY
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
authors.forename: Hui-Suo
authors.initials: HS
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China ; School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Bing
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America ; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America.
authors.forename: Bryan
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Grenfell
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D002980:Climate; D004197:Disease Reservoirs; D006480:Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D011156:Population Density; D012307:Risk Factors; D012377:Rodentia / Q000254:growth & development*; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors