title: Exploring neighborhood influences on small-area variations in intimate partner violence risk: a Bayesian random-effects modeling approach.
abstract: This paper uses spatial data of cases of intimate partner violence against women (IPVAW) to examine neighborhood-level influences on small-area variations in IPVAW risk in a police district of the city of Valencia (Spain). To analyze area variations in IPVAW risk and its association with neighborhood-level explanatory variables we use a Bayesian spatial random-effects modeling approach, as well as disease mapping methods to represent risk probabilities in each area. Analyses show that IPVAW cases are more likely in areas of high immigrant concentration, high public disorder and crime, and high physical disorder. Results also show a spatial component indicating remaining variability attributable to spatially structured random effects. Bayesian spatial modeling offers a new perspective to identify IPVAW high and low risk areas, and provides a new avenue for the design of better-informed prevention and intervention strategies.
authors.affiliation: Department of Social Psychology, University of Valencia, Valencia 46010, Spain. enrique.gracia@uv.es.
authors.forename: Enrique
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Gracia
authors.affiliation: Department of Social Psychology, University of Valencia, Valencia 46010, Spain.
authors.forename: Antonio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: López-Quílez
authors.affiliation: Department of Social Psychology, University of Valencia, Valencia 46010, Spain. mimar4@alumni.uv.es.
authors.forename: Miriam
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Marco
authors.affiliation: Department of Social Psychology, University of Valencia, Valencia 46010, Spain. silvia.lladosa@uv.es.
authors.forename: Silvia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Lladosa
authors.affiliation: Department of Social Psychology, University of Valencia, Valencia 46010, Spain. marisol.lila@uv.es.
authors.forename: Marisol
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lila
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002947:Cities; D003415:Crime; D017579:Domestic Violence / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D054242:Emigrants and Immigrants; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012111:Residence Characteristics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013030:Spain; D014930:Women