title: Ensemble modeling of the Baltic Sea ecosystem to provide scenarios for management.
abstract: We present a multi-model ensemble study for the Baltic Sea, and investigate the combined impact of changing climate, external nutrient supply, and fisheries on the marine ecosystem. The applied regional climate system model contains state-of-the-art component models for the atmosphere, sea ice, ocean, land surface, terrestrial and marine biogeochemistry, and marine food-web. Time-dependent scenario simulations for the period 1960-2100 are performed and uncertainties of future projections are estimated. In addition, reconstructions since 1850 are carried out to evaluate the models sensitivity to external stressors on long time scales. Information from scenario simulations are used to support decision-makers and stakeholders and to raise awareness of climate change, environmental problems, and possible abatement strategies among the general public using geovisualization. It is concluded that the study results are relevant for the Baltic Sea Action Plan of the Helsinki Commission.
authors.affiliation: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, 601 76, Norrköping, Sweden, markus.meier@smhi.se.
authors.forename: H E Markus
authors.initials: HE
authors.lastname: Meier
authors.forename: Helén C
authors.initials: HC
authors.lastname: Andersson
authors.forename: Berit
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Arheimer
authors.forename: Chantal
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Donnelly
authors.forename: Kari
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Eilola
authors.forename: Bo G
authors.initials: BG
authors.lastname: Gustafsson
authors.forename: Lech
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Kotwicki
authors.forename: Tina-Simone
authors.initials: TS
authors.lastname: Neset
authors.forename: Susa
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Niiranen
authors.forename: Joanna
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Piwowarczyk
authors.forename: Oleg P
authors.initials: OP
authors.lastname: Savchuk
authors.forename: Frederik
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Schenk
authors.forename: Jan Marcin
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Węsławski
authors.forename: Eduardo
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Zorita
mesh_terms: D001454:Baltic States; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D009792:Oceans and Seas