title: How do resources influence control measures during a simulated outbreak of foot and mouth disease in Australia?
abstract: An outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) could seriously impact Australia's livestock sector and economy. As an FMD-free country, an outbreak would trigger a major disease control and eradication program that would include the culling of infected and at risk animals ('stamping out'), movement restrictions and zoo-sanitary measures. Additional control measures may also include pre-emptive culling or vaccination. However, it is unclear what disease strategy would be most effective under Australian conditions and different resource levels. Using a stochastic simulation model that describes FMD transmission between farms in a livestock dense region of Australia, our results suggest that using current estimates of human resource capacity for surveillance, infected premises operations and vaccination, outbreaks were effectively controlled under a stamping out strategy. However, under more constrained resource allocations, ring vaccination was more likely to achieve eradication faster than stamping out or pre-emptive culling strategies.
authors.affiliation: Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, GPO Box 858, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia. Electronic address: sharon.roche@daff.gov.au.
authors.forename: S E
authors.initials: SE
authors.lastname: Roche
authors.affiliation: Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, GPO Box 858, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
authors.forename: M G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Garner
authors.affiliation: Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, GPO Box 858, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
authors.forename: R M
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Wicks
authors.affiliation: Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, GPO Box 858, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
authors.forename: I J
authors.initials: IJ
authors.lastname: East
authors.affiliation: Animal Health Australia, 26-28 Napier Close, Deakin, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: de Witte
mesh_terms: D000822:Animal Husbandry; D000818:Animals; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D002417:Cattle; D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000379:methods*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000662:veterinary*; D037901:Euthanasia, Animal; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission; D032541:Mass Vaccination / Q000662:veterinary; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D013269:Stochastic Processes
keywords: Disease control; Disease management; Foot and mouth disease; Resources; Vaccination