A probabilistic model for accidental cargo oil outflow from product tankers in a ship-ship collision.
In risk assessment of maritime transportation, estimation of accidental oil outflow from tankers is important for assessing environmental impacts. However, there typically is limited data concerning the specific structural design and tank arrangement of ships operating in a given area. Moreover, there is uncertainty about the accident scenarios potentially emerging from ship encounters. This paper proposes a Bayesian network (BN) model for reasoning under uncertainty for the assessment of accidental cargo oil outflow in a ship-ship collision where a product tanker is struck. The BN combines a model linking impact scenarios to damage extent with a model for estimating the tank layouts based on limited information regarding the ship. The methodology for constructing the model is presented and output for two accident scenarios is shown. The discussion elaborates on the issue of model validation, both in terms of the BN and in light of the adopted uncertainty/bias-based risk perspective.
Aalto University, School of Engineering, Department of Applied Mechanics, Marine Technology, Research Group on Maritime Risk and Safety, P.O. Box 15300, FI-00076 AALTO, Espoo, Finland. Electronic address: floris.goerlandt@aalto.fi.
Floris
F
Goerlandt
Aalto University, School of Engineering, Department of Applied Mechanics, Marine Technology, Research Group on Maritime Risk and Safety, P.O. Box 15300, FI-00076 AALTO, Espoo, Finland.
Jakub
J
Montewka
D000059:Accidents / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004777:Environment; D008956:Models, Chemical; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010578:Petroleum; D059392:Petroleum Pollution / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012767:Ships / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D014877:Water Pollution, Chemical / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
D010578:Petroleum
Bayesian network; Maritime transportation; Oil spill; Risk assessment; Ship–ship collision