Using quantitative disease dynamics as a tool for guiding response to avian influenza in poultry in the United States of America.
Wild birds are the primary source of genetic diversity for influenza A viruses that eventually emerge in poultry and humans. Much progress has been made in the descriptive ecology of avian influenza viruses (AIVs), but contributions are less evident from quantitative studies (e.g., those including disease dynamic models). Transmission between host species, individuals and flocks has not been measured with sufficient accuracy to allow robust quantitative evaluation of alternate control protocols. We focused on the United States of America (USA) as a case study for determining the state of our quantitative knowledge of potential AIV emergence processes from wild hosts to poultry. We identified priorities for quantitative research that would build on existing tools for responding to AIV in poultry and concluded that the following knowledge gaps can be addressed with current empirical data: (1) quantification of the spatio-temporal relationships between AIV prevalence in wild hosts and poultry populations, (2) understanding how the structure of different poultry sectors impacts within-flock transmission, (3) determining mechanisms and rates of between-farm spread, and (4) validating current policy-decision tools with data. The modeling studies we recommend will improve our mechanistic understanding of potential AIV transmission patterns in USA poultry, leading to improved measures of accuracy and reduced uncertainty when evaluating alternative control strategies.
Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA. Electronic address: kimpepin@gmail.com.
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Pepin
Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Athens, GA, USA. Electronic address: Erica.Spackman@ars.usda.gov.
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Spackman
Department of Population Health, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA. Electronic address: jubrown1@uga.edu.
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JD
Brown
Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA. Electronic address: Kristy.Pabilonia@ColoState.edu.
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Pabilonia
Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Veterinary Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA. Electronic address: Lindsey.p.Garber@aphis.usda.gov.
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Garber
Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Veterinary Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA. Electronic address: Todd.Weaver@aphis.usda.gov.
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Weaver
Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, USA. Electronic address: dak30@psu.edu.
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DA
Kennedy
Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Veterinary Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA. Electronic address: Kelly.A.Patyk@aphis.usda.gov.
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Patyk
Warner College of Natural Resources, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA. Electronic address: kate.huyvaert@colostate.edu.
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Huyvaert
Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Veterinary Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA. Electronic address: Ryan.S.Miller@aphis.usda.gov.
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Miller
National Wildlife Research Center, Wildlife Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA. Electronic address: alan.b.franklin@aphis.usda.gov.
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Franklin
National Wildlife Research Center, Wildlife Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA. Electronic address: Kerri.Pedersen@aphis.usda.gov.
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Pedersen
Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA. Electronic address: tiff.bogich@gmail.com.
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Bogich
Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA. Electronic address: rohani@uga.edu.
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Rohani
National Wildlife Research Center, Wildlife Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA. Electronic address: susan.a.shriner@aphis.usda.gov.
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Shriner
Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA. Electronic address: Colleen.Webb@colostate.edu.
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Webb
Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Disease Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, UK. Electronic address: s.riley@imperial.ac.uk.
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Riley
D000822:Animal Husbandry / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence* / Q000458:organization & administration; D000818:Animals; D001717:Birds; D004197:Disease Reservoirs / Q000662:veterinary; D009980:Influenza A virus / Q000502:physiology*; D005585:Influenza in Birds / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission*; D011200:Poultry; D011201:Poultry Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission*; D014481:United States
Avian influenza; Between-farm spread; Disease-dynamic model; Poultry; Quantitative data; USA