Seasonal predictability of the East Atlantic pattern from sea surface temperatures.
This study analyzes the influence of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the second mode of atmospheric variability in the north Atlantic/European sector, namely the East-Atlantic (EA) pattern, for the period 1950-2012. For this purpose, lead-lag relationships between SSTs and the EA pattern, ranging from 0 to 3 seasons, were assessed. As a main result, anomalies of the EA pattern in boreal summer and autumn are significantly related to SST anomalies in the Indo-Pacific Ocean during the preceding seasons. A statistical forecasting scheme based on multiple linear regression was used to hindcast the EA-anomalies with a lead-time of 1 to 2 months. The results of a one-year-out cross-validation approach indicate that the phases of the EA in summer and autumn can be properly hindcast.
Grupo de Física de la Atmósfera y del Océano. Facultad de Ciencias. Universidad de Vigo, Ourense, Spain ; Centro Interdisciplinar de Investigação Marinha e Ambiental, Universidade do Porto, Porto, Portugal.
Isabel
I
Iglesias
Grupo de Física de la Atmósfera y del Océano. Facultad de Ciencias. Universidad de Vigo, Ourense, Spain.
María N
MN
Lorenzo
Meteogalicia. Xunta de Galicia. Santiago de Compostela, Spain.
Juan J
JJ
Taboada
D001267:Atlantic Ocean; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature