Geo-environmental model for the prediction of potential transmission risk of Dirofilaria in an area with dry climate and extensive irrigated crops. The case of Spain.
Zoonotic filarioses caused by Dirofilaria immitis and Dirofilaria repens are transmitted by culicid mosquitoes. Therefore Dirofilaria transmission depends on climatic factors like temperature and humidity. In spite of the dry climate of most of the Spanish territory, there are extensive irrigated crops areas providing moist habitats favourable for mosquito breeding. A GIS model to predict the risk of Dirofilaria transmission in Spain, based on temperatures and rainfall data as well as in the distribution of irrigated crops areas, is constructed. The model predicts that potential risk of Dirofilaria transmission exists in all the Spanish territory. Highest transmission risk exists in several areas of Andalucía, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia, Valencia, Aragón and Cataluña, where moderate/high temperatures coincide with extensive irrigated crops. High risk in Balearic Islands and in some points of Canary Islands, is also predicted. The lowest risk is predicted in Northern cold and scarcely or non-irrigated dry Southeastern areas. The existence of irrigations locally increases transmission risk in low rainfall areas of the Spanish territory. The model can contribute to implement rational preventive therapy guidelines in accordance with the transmission characteristics of each local area. Moreover, the use of humidity-related factors could be of interest in future predictions to be performed in countries with similar environmental characteristics.
Laboratory of Parasitology, Faculty of Pharmacy & IBSAL, University of Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain.
Luis
L
Simón
Faculty of Geography, Saint-Petersburg State University, Saint Petersburg, Russia.
Alexandr
A
Afonin
Laboratory of Parasitology, Faculty of Pharmacy & IBSAL, University of Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain.
Lucía Isabel
LI
López-Díez
Laboratory of Parasitology, Faculty of Pharmacy & IBSAL, University of Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain.
Javier
J
González-Miguel
Laboratory of Parasitology, Faculty of Pharmacy & IBSAL, University of Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain.
Rodrigo
R
Morchón
Internal Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain.
Elena
E
Carretón
Internal Medicine, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain.
José Alberto
JA
Montoya-Alonso
Department of Infectious Diseases, Rostov State Medical University, Rostov-na-Donu, Russia.
Vladimir
V
Kartashev
Laboratory of Parasitology, Faculty of Pharmacy & IBSAL, University of Salamanca, Salamanca, Spain. Electronic address: fersimon@usal.es.
Fernando
F
Simón
D057914:Agricultural Irrigation; D000818:Animals; D002980:Climate; D009033:Culicidae / Q000502:physiology; D004182:Dirofilaria / Q000502:physiology*; D004184:Dirofilariasis / Q000635:transmission*; D004283:Dog Diseases / Q000635:transmission; D004285:Dogs; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D006813:Humidity; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000502:physiology; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013030:Spain; D013696:Temperature; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission*
Dirofilaria; GIS prediction model; Irrigated crops; Rainfall; Temperature; Transmission risk