The predictive validity of the HERO Scorecard in determining future health care cost and risk trends.
OBJECTIVE
To determine the ability of the Health Enhancement Research Organization (HERO) Scorecard to predict changes in health care expenditures.


METHODS
Individual employee health care insurance claims data for 33 organizations completing the HERO Scorecard from 2009 to 2011 were linked to employer responses to the Scorecard. Organizations were dichotomized into "high" versus "low" scoring groups and health care cost trends were compared. A secondary analysis examined the tool's ability to predict health risk trends.


RESULTS
"High" scorers experienced significant reductions in inflation-adjusted health care costs (averaging an annual trend of -1.6% over 3 years) compared with "low" scorers whose cost trend remained stable. The risk analysis was inconclusive because of the small number of employers scoring "low."


CONCLUSIONS
The HERO Scorecard predicts health care cost trends among employers. More research is needed to determine how well it predicts health risk trends for employees.
From the Emory University Institute for Health and Productivity Studies and Truven Health Analytics (Dr Goetzel), Bethesda, Md; Truven Health Analytics (Dr Henke), Cambridge, Mass; Truven Health Analytics (Ms Benevent), Santa Barbara, Calif; Truven Health Analytics (Dr Tabrizi), Bethesda, Md; Emory University Institute for Health and Productivity Studies (Ms Kent, Ms Smith, and Dr Roemer), Washington, DC; StayWell Health Management (Drs Grossmeier and Anderson), St Paul, Minn; Wellness & Prevention Inc (Dr Mason), Johnson & Johnson and Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Ann Arbor, Mich; Mercer (Dr Gold), Minneapolis, Minn; and Mercer (Dr Noeldner), Irvine, Calif.
Ron Z
RZ
Goetzel
Rachel Mosher
RM
Henke
Richele
R
Benevent
Maryam J
MJ
Tabrizi
Karen B
KB
Kent
Kristyn J
KJ
Smith
Enid Chung
EC
Roemer
Jessica
J
Grossmeier
Shawn T
ST
Mason
Daniel B
DB
Gold
Steven P
SP
Noeldner
David R
DR
Anderson
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D006264:Health Benefit Plans, Employee / Q000191:economics*; D017048:Health Care Costs / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D005102:Health Expenditures / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D006293:Health Promotion / Q000191:economics; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D016272:Occupational Health / Q000191:economics*; D009786:Occupational Health Services / Q000191:economics; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment; D014481:United States; D055815:Young Adult