Modeled subalpine plant community response to climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA.
To evaluate potential long-term effects of climate change and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on subalpine ecosystems, the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community competition model ForSAFE-Veg was applied to a site at the Loch Vale watershed of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Changes in climate and N deposition since 1900 resulted in pronounced changes in simulated plant species cover as compared with ambient and estimated future community composition. The estimated critical load (CL) of N deposition to protect against an average future (2010-2100) change in biodiversity of 10% was between 1.9 and 3.5 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1). Results suggest that the CL has been exceeded and vegetation at the study site has already undergone a change of more than 10% as a result of N deposition. Future increases in air temperature are forecast to cause further changes in plant community composition, exacerbating changes in response to N deposition alone.
E&S Environmental Chemistry Inc., P.O. Box 609, Corvallis, OR 97339, USA. Electronic address: todd.mcdonnell@esenvironmental.com.
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McDonnell
Belyazid Consulting & Communication AB, Stationsvägen 13, 517 34 Bollebygd, Sweden. Electronic address: salim@belyazid.com.
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Belyazid
E&S Environmental Chemistry Inc., P.O. Box 609, Corvallis, OR 97339, USA. Electronic address: tim.sullivan@esenvironmental.com.
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Sullivan
Biogeochemistry and Systems Analysis, Chemical Engineering, Lund University, SE-221 00 Lund, Sweden. Electronic address: harald.sverdrup@chemeng.lth.se.
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Sverdrup
Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA. Electronic address: william.bowman@colorado.edu.
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Bowman
National Park Service, Air Resources Division, Denver, CO 80225, USA. Electronic address: ellen_porter@nps.gov.
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Porter
D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D001272:Atmosphere / Q000737:chemistry*; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D003120:Colorado; D017753:Ecosystem; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D008954:Models, Biological; D009584:Nitrogen / Q000032:analysis*; D063245:Plant Development / Q000187:drug effects; D010944:Plants / Q000378:metabolism
D000393:Air Pollutants; D009584:Nitrogen
Biodiversity; Climate; Critical load; Nitrogen; Plant; Subalpine