FRAX calculator and Garvan nomogram in male osteoporotic population.
OBJECTIVE
The aim of the study was the presentation of osteoporotic fracture prediction in men.


METHODS
Eight-hundred and one men at the mean age of 70.8 ± 9.31 years were examined. The 10-year fracture prediction was established, using the FRAX calculator and Garvan nomogram.


RESULTS
The mean value for any fracture and hip fracture probabilities for FRAX were 7.26 ± 5.4% and 3.68 ± 4.25%, respectively. For Garvan fracture, risk values were 26.44 ± 23.83% and 12.02 ± 18.1%. The mean conformity for any fracture and hip fracture prediction for threshold of 20% (any fracture) and 3% (hip fracture) between Garvan and FRAX values was 55.8% (κ 0.041) and 79.65% (κ 0.599), respectively. ROC analyses showed the following areas under the ROC curves (AUC) for any fractures: FRAX 0.808 and Garvan nomogram 0.843 (p = 0.059). The AUC values for hip fractures were 0.748 for Garvan nomogram and for 0.749 FRAX, and did not differ. On the base of ROC data, the cut-off values with best accuracy to predict fractures for both methods were established. The conformity between methods for thresholds indicated by ROC analysis was 72.5% (κ 0.435) for any and 77.7% (κ 0.543) for hip fractures.


CONCLUSIONS
The conformities between FRAX and Garvan in regard to hip fracture prediction were acceptable for a threshold of 3% and thresholds derived by ROC analysis, while for any fracture we recommend to use thresholds established by ROC analysis. This may suggest that the use of "universal" cut-off points is probably misleading.
Department and Clinic of Internal Diseases, Diabetology and Nephrology, Metabolic Bone Diseases Unit, Medical University of Silesia , Katowice , Poland .
Wojciech
W
Pluskiewicz
Piotr
P
Adamczyk
Edward
E
Franek
Ewa
E
Sewerynek
Piotr
P
Leszczynski
Hanna
H
Wichrowska
Luiza
L
Napiórkowska
Michał
M
Stuss
Aleksandra
A
Ptaszek
Tomasz
T
Kostyk
Krzysztof S
KS
Golba
Wioleta
W
Garbacz
Bogna
B
Drozdzowska
D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D050723:Fractures, Bone / Q000209:etiology*; D006620:Hip Fractures / Q000209:etiology; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D049451:Nomograms; D010024:Osteoporosis / Q000150:complications*; D011336:Probability; D012372:ROC Curve; D012307:Risk Factors
FRAX; Fracture probability; garvan nomogram; men; osteoporotic fracture