Links between plant species' spatial and temporal responses to a warming climate.
To generate realistic projections of species' responses to climate change, we need to understand the factors that limit their ability to respond. Although climatic niche conservatism, the maintenance of a species's climatic niche over time, is a critical assumption in niche-based species distribution models, little is known about how universal it is and how it operates. In particular, few studies have tested the role of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes in explaining the reported wide variance in the extent of range shifts among species. Using historical records of the phenology and spatial distribution of British plants under a warming climate, we revealed that: (i) perennial species, as well as those with weaker or lagged phenological responses to temperature, experienced a greater increase in temperature during flowering (i.e. failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes); (ii) species that failed to maintain climatic niche via phenological changes showed greater northward range shifts; and (iii) there was a complementary relationship between the levels of climatic niche conservatism via phenological changes and range shifts. These results indicate that even species with high climatic niche conservatism might not show range shifts as instead they track warming temperatures during flowering by advancing their phenology.
Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, , Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK, Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield, , Sheffield S10 2TN, UK, Department of Evolution, Ecology and Organismal Biology, Ohio State University, , Columbus, OH 43210, USA, Ricardo-AEA Ltd, Gemini Building, Fermi Avenue, Harwell, Didcot OX11 0QR, UK, Institute of Zoology, Poznań University of Life Sciences, , Wojska Polskiego 71C, Poznań 60-625, Poland, Fachgebiet für Ökoklimatologie, Technische Universität München, , Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, Freising 85354, Germany, Institute for Advanced Study, Technische Universität München, , Lichtenbergstrasse 2a, Garching 85748, Germany, Sigma, Coventry University, , Coventry CV1 5FB, UK.
Tatsuya
T
Amano
Robert P
RP
Freckleton
Simon A
SA
Queenborough
Simon W
SW
Doxford
Richard J
RJ
Smithers
Tim H
TH
Sparks
William J
WJ
Sutherland
D057231:Climate Change; D063245:Plant Development; D063148:Plant Dispersal; D012621:Seasons; D013045:Species Specificity; D006113:United Kingdom
climate change; climatic niche conservatism; phenology; species distribution models