Decisions among the undecided: implicit attitudes predict future voting behavior of undecided voters.
Implicit attitudes have been suggested as a key to unlock the hidden preferences of undecided voters. Past research, however, offered mixed support for this hypothesis. The present research used a large nationally representative sample and a longitudinal design to examine the predictive utility of implicit and explicit attitude measures in the 2008 U.S. presidential election. In our analyses, explicit attitudes toward candidates predicted voting better for decided than undecided voters, but implicit candidate attitudes were predictive of voting for both decided and undecided voters. Extending our examination to implicit and explicit racial attitudes, we found the same pattern. Taken together, these results provide convergent evidence that implicit attitudes predict voting about as well for undecided as for decided voters. We also assessed a novel explanation for these effects by evaluating whether implicit attitudes may predict the choices of undecided voters, in part, because they are neglected when people introspect about their confidence. Consistent with this idea, we found that the extremity of explicit but not implicit attitudes was associated with greater confidence. These analyses shed new light on the utility of implicit measures in predicting future behavior among individuals who feel undecided. Considering the prior studies together with this new evidence, the data seem to be consistent that implicit attitudes may be successful in predicting the behavior of undecided voters.
Department of Psychology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America.
Kristjen B
KB
Lundberg
Department of Psychology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, United States of America.
B Keith
BK
Payne
D001290:Attitude; D002755:Choice Behavior; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D033182:Intention; D008960:Models, Psychological; D011057:Politics; D011287:Prejudice / Q000523:psychology; D012718:Set, Psychology; D014481:United States