Early impact of a national multi-faceted road safety intervention program in Mexico: results of a time-series analysis.
BACKGROUND
In January 2008, a national multifaceted road safety intervention program (IMESEVI) funded by the Bloomberg Philanthropies was launched in Mexico. Two years later in 2010, IMESEVI was refocused as part of a 10-country international consortium demonstration project (IMESEVI/RS10). We evaluate the initial effects of each phase of the road safety intervention project on numbers of RT crashes, injuries and deaths in Mexico and in the two main target cities of Guadalajara-Zapopan and León.


METHODS
An interrupted time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling was performed using monthly data of rates of RT crashes and injuries (police data), as well as deaths (mortality system data) from 1999-2011 with dummy variables representing each intervention phase.


RESULTS
In the period following the first intervention phase at the country level and in the city of León, the rate of RT crashes decreased significantly (p<0.05). Notably, following the second intervention phase although there was no reduction at the country level, there has been a decrease in the RT crash rate in both Guadalajara-Zapopan (p = 0.029) and in León (p = 0.029). There were no significant differences in the RT injury or death rates following either intervention phase in either city.


CONCLUSIONS
These initial results suggest that a multi-faceted road safety intervention program appears to be effective in reducing road crashes in a middle-income country setting. Further analysis is needed to differentiate the effects of various interventions, and to determine what other economic and political factors might have affected this change.
International Injury Research Unit, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.
Aruna
A
Chandran
Centro de Investigación en Sistemas de Salud, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Morelos México.
Ricardo
R
Pérez-Núñez
International Injury Research Unit, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.
Abdulgafoor M
AM
Bachani
Centro de Investigación en Sistemas de Salud, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Morelos México ; Fundación Entornos A.C., Cuernavaca, Morelos, México.
Martha
M
Híjar
Centro de Investigación en Evaluación y Encuestas, Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública, Cuernavaca, Morelos México.
Aarón
A
Salinas-Rodríguez
International Injury Research Unit, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, United States of America.
Adnan A
AA
Hyder
D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000401:mortality / Q000517:prevention & control*; D008800:Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012449:Safety