Pathogen population dynamics in agricultural landscapes: the Ddal modelling framework.
Modelling processes that occur at the landscape scale is gaining more and more attention from theoretical ecologists to agricultural managers. Most of the approaches found in the literature lack applicability for managers or, on the opposite, lack a sound theoretical basis. Based on the metapopulation concept, we propose here a modelling approach for landscape epidemiology that takes advantage of theoretical results developed in the metapopulation context while considering realistic landscapes structures. A landscape simulator makes it possible to represent both the field pattern and the spatial distribution of crops. The pathogen population dynamics are then described through a matrix population model both stage- and space-structured. In addition to a classical invasion analysis we present a stochastic simulation experiment and provide a complete framework for performing a sensitivity analysis integrating the landscape as an input factor. We illustrate our approach using an example to evaluate whether the agricultural landscape composition and structure may prevent and mitigate the development of an epidemic. Although designed for a fungal foliar disease, our modelling approach is easily adaptable to other organisms.
INRA, UR 1290 BIOGER-CPP, 78850 Thiverval Grignon, France; INRA, UR 341 Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées, 78350 Jouy-en-Josas, France. Electronic address: Julien.papaix@jouy.inra.fr.
Julien
J
Papaïx
INRA, UR 341 Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées, 78350 Jouy-en-Josas, France.
Katarzyna
K
Adamczyk-Chauvat
INRA, UR 341 Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées, 78350 Jouy-en-Josas, France.
Annie
A
Bouvier
INRA, UR 341 Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées, 78350 Jouy-en-Josas, France.
Kiên
K
Kiêu
INRA, UR 341 Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées, 78350 Jouy-en-Josas, France.
Suzanne
S
Touzeau
INRA, UR 1290 BIOGER-CPP, 78850 Thiverval Grignon, France.
Christian
C
Lannou
INRA, UR 341 Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées, 78350 Jouy-en-Josas, France.
Hervé
H
Monod
D000383:Agriculture; D017753:Ecosystem; D054884:Host-Pathogen Interactions; D008962:Models, Theoretical
Landscape epidemiology; Landscape pattern indices; Metapopulation model; Model analysis; Sensitivity analysis; Tessellation models