Marriage duration and divorce: the seven-year itch or a lifelong itch?
Previous studies have shown that the risk of divorce is low during the first months of marriage; it then increases, reaches a maximum, and thereafter begins to decline. Some researchers consider this pattern consistent with the notion of a "seven-year itch," while others argue that the rising-falling pattern of divorce risk is a consequence of misspecification of longitudinal models because of omitted covariates or unobserved heterogeneity. The aim of this study is to investigate the causes of the rising-falling pattern of divorce risk. Using register data from Finland and applying multilevel hazard models, the analysis supports the rising-falling pattern of divorce by marriage duration: the risk of marital dissolution increases, reaches its peak, and then gradually declines. This pattern persists when I control for the sociodemographic characteristics of women and their partners. The inclusion of unobserved heterogeneity in the model leads to some changes in the shape of the baseline risk; however, the rising-falling pattern of the divorce risk persists.
School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, Roxby Building, Liverpool, L69 7ZT, UK, hill.kulu@liverpool.ac.uk.
Hill
H
Kulu
D000367:Age Factors; D004243:Divorce / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005191:Family Characteristics; D005260:Female; D005387:Finland; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008393:Marriage / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D012307:Risk Factors; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D013997:Time Factors