A quarter of a century of job transitions in Germany.
By examining trends in intra-organizational and inter-organizational job transition probabilities among professional and managerial employees in Germany, we test the applicability of mainstream career theory to a specific context and challenge its implied change assumption. Drawing on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we apply linear probability models to show the influence of time, economic cycle and age on the probability of job transitions between 1984 and 2010. Results indicate a slight negative trend in the frequency of job transitions during the analyzed time span, owing to a pronounced decrease in intra-organizational transitions, which is only partly offset by a comparatively weaker positive trend towards increased inter-organizational transitions. The latter is strongly influenced by fluctuations in the economic cycle. Finally, the probability of job transitions keeps declining steadily through the course of one's working life. In contrast to inter-organizational transitions, however, this age effect for intra-organizational transitions has decreased over time.
Tongji University, Sino-German School of Postgraduate Studies, Shanghai, China.
Ralph
R
Kattenbach
WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, Austria.
Thomas M
TM
Schneidhofer
University of Hamburg, Germany.
Janine
J
Lücke
WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, Austria.
Markus
M
Latzke
Lund University, School of Economics and Management, Sweden.
Bernadette
B
Loacker
University of Hamburg, Germany.
Florian
F
Schramm
WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, Austria.
Wolfgang
W
Mayrhofer
Age; Career; GDP; Job transition; Qualified employees