title: Applications and comparisons of four time series models in epidemiological surveillance data.
abstract: Public health surveillance systems provide valuable data for reliable predication of future epidemic events. This paper describes a study that used nine types of infectious disease data collected through a national public health surveillance system in mainland China to evaluate and compare the performances of four time series methods, namely, two decomposition methods (regression and exponential smoothing), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and support vector machine (SVM). The data obtained from 2005 to 2011 and in 2012 were used as modeling and forecasting samples, respectively. The performances were evaluated based on three metrics: mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and mean square error (MSE). The accuracy of the statistical models in forecasting future epidemic disease proved their effectiveness in epidemiological surveillance. Although the comparisons found that no single method is completely superior to the others, the present study indeed highlighted that the SVMs outperforms the ARIMA model and decomposition methods in most cases.
authors: Department of Medical Statistis, West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, P.R. China ; Department of Anatomy with Radiology, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
authors: Xingyu
authors: X
authors: Zhang
authors: Department of Medical Statistis, West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, P.R. China.
authors: Tao
authors: T
authors: Zhang
authors: Department of Anatomy with Radiology, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand.
authors: Alistair A
authors: AA
authors: Young
authors: Department of Medical Statistis, West China School of Public Health, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan, P.R. China.
authors: Xiaosong
authors: X
authors: Li
mesh_terms: D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D062486:Public Health Surveillance; D012621:Seasons; D060388:Support Vector Machine