title: Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging megapolitan regions.
abstract: Modeling results incorporating several distinct urban expansion futures for the United States in 2100 show that, in the absence of any adaptive urban design, megapolitan expansion, alone and separate from greenhouse gas-induced forcing, can be expected to raise near-surface temperatures 1-2 °C not just at the scale of individual cities but over large regional swaths of the country. This warming is a significant fraction of the 21st century greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated by global climate models. Using a suite of regional climate simulations, we assessed the efficacy of commonly proposed urban adaptation strategies, such as green, cool roof, and hybrid approaches, to ameliorate the warming. Our results quantify how judicious choices in urban planning and design cannot only counteract the climatological impacts of the urban expansion itself but also, can, in fact, even offset a significant percentage of future greenhouse warming over large scales. Our results also reveal tradeoffs among different adaptation options for some regions, showing the need for geographically appropriate strategies rather than one size fits all solutions.
authors: School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Global Institute of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287.
authors: Matei
authors: M
authors: Georgescu
authors: Philip E
authors: PE
authors: Morefield
authors: Britta G
authors: BG
authors: Bierwagen
authors: Christopher P
authors: CP
authors: Weaver
mesh_terms: D002947:Cities; D057231:Climate Change; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004777:Environment; D005843:Geography; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D013696:Temperature; D014481:United States; D014507:Urbanization
keywords: land-use change; mitigation; sustainability; urban climate; urbanization