title: Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity.
abstract: The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the 'business as usual' climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness.
authors: Department of Ecology, Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Oban, Argyll, PA37 1QA, Scotland, UK.
authors: Michael T
authors: MT
authors: Burrows
authors: School of Science and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore, Queensland QLD 4558, Australia.
authors: David S
authors: DS
authors: Schoeman
authors: 1] Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Ecosciences Precinct, GPO Box 2583, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia [2] Centre for Applications in Natural Resource Mathematics (CARM), School of Mathematics and Physics, The University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland 4072, Australia.
authors: Anthony J
authors: AJ
authors: Richardson
authors: Department of Ecology, Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Oban, Argyll, PA37 1QA, Scotland, UK.
authors: Jorge García
authors: JG
authors: Molinos
authors: Department of Genetics, University of Melbourne, 30 Flemington Road, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia.
authors: Ary
authors: A
authors: Hoffmann
authors: Department of Biology, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599-3280, USA.
authors: Lauren B
authors: LB
authors: Buckley
authors: 1] Institute of Biological, Environmental and Rural Sciences, Aberystwyth University, Aberystwyth SY23 3DA, UK [2] Centre for Marine Ecosystems Research, Edith Cowan University, Perth 6027, Australia.
authors: Pippa J
authors: PJ
authors: Moore
authors: The Global Change Institute, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia.
authors: Christopher J
authors: CJ
authors: Brown
authors: Department of Biology, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599-3280, USA.
authors: John F
authors: JF
authors: Bruno
authors: 1] The UWA Oceans Institute, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley 6009, Australia [2] Department of Global Change Research, IMEDEA (UIB-CSIC), Instituto Mediterráneo de Estudios Avanzados, Esporles 07190, Spain [3] Department of Marine Biology, Faculty of Marine Sciences, King Abdulaziz University, PO Box 80207, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia.
authors: Carlos M
authors: CM
authors: Duarte
authors: 1] Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106, USA [2] Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK.
authors: Benjamin S
authors: BS
authors: Halpern
authors: The Global Change Institute, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia.
authors: Ove
authors: O
authors: Hoegh-Guldberg
authors: Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, California 93106, USA.
authors: Carrie V
authors: CV
authors: Kappel
authors: 1] GeoZentrum Nordbayern, Paläoumwelt, Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Loewenichstrasse 28, 91054 Erlangen, Germany [2] Museum für Naturkunde, Invalidenstr asse 43, 10115 Berlin, Germany.
authors: Wolfgang
authors: W
authors: Kiessling
authors: Department of Zoology and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver V6T 1Z4, Canada.
authors: Mary I
authors: MI
authors: O'Connor
authors: School of Biological Sciences, Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland 4072, Australia.
authors: John M
authors: JM
authors: Pandolfi
authors: 1] Integrative Biology, University of Texas, Austin, Texas 78712, USA [2] Marine Institute, Drake Circus, University of Plymouth, Devon PL4 8AA, UK.
authors: Camille
authors: C
authors: Parmesan
authors: Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research, 101 H Street, Suite Q, Petaluma, California 94952, USA.
authors: William J
authors: WJ
authors: Sydeman
authors: Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia.
authors: Simon
authors: S
authors: Ferrier
authors: Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, GPO Box 1700, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia.
authors: Kristen J
authors: KJ
authors: Williams
authors: Climate Adaptation Flagship, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Ecosciences Precinct, GPO Box 2583, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia.
authors: Elvira S
authors: ES
authors: Poloczanska
mesh_terms: D025041:Animal Migration; D000818:Animals; D001315:Australia; D044822:Biodiversity; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D062305:Geographic Mapping; D005843:Geography; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012623:Seawater; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors; D035501:Uncertainty