title: External validation of the Endovascular aneurysm repair Risk Assessment model in predicting survival, reinterventions, and endoleaks after endovascular aneurysm repair.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The Endovascular aneurysm repair Risk Assessment (ERA) model predicts survival (early death, 3-year survival, and 5-year survival), reinterventions, and endoleaks after elective endovascular aneurysm repair. We externally validated the ERA model in our cohort of patients.
  
  
  METHODS
  This was a retrospective validation study of 433 consecutive patients with an asymptomatic abdominal aortic aneurysm treated with endovascular aneurysm repair in three hospitals (Amsterdam, The Netherlands) between 1997 and 2010. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used as measure of accuracy (>0.70 was considered as sufficiently accurate).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The early death rate was 1% (3 of 433; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0%-2%), the 5-year survival rate was 65% (95% CI, 61%-70%), the 5-year reintervention rate was 18% (95% CI, 14-78%), and the 5-year rate of type I, II, or III endoleak was 25% (95% CI, 20%-29%). The areas under the curve varied between 0.64 and 0.66 for predictions of survival and between 0.47 and 0.61 for reinterventions and endoleaks.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The predictions of survival, reinterventions, and endoleaks made by the ERA model were not sufficiently accurate to be used in our clinical practice.
authors: Department of Vascular Surgery, Academic Medical Centre, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors: Sytse C
authors: SC
authors: van Beek
authors: Department of Vascular Surgery, Academic Medical Centre, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors: Dink A
authors: DA
authors: Legemate
authors: Department of Vascular Surgery, Onze Lieve Vrouwe Gasthuis, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors: Anco
authors: A
authors: Vahl
authors: Department of Vascular Surgery, VU University Medical Centre, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors: Willem
authors: W
authors: Wisselink
authors: CSIRO Computational Informatics, Glen Osmond, South Australia, Australia.
authors: Mary
authors: M
authors: Barnes
authors: Department of Surgery, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
authors: Robert A
authors: RA
authors: Fitridge
authors: Department of Vascular Surgery, Academic Medical Centre, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. Electronic address: r.balm@amc.nl.
authors: Ron
authors: R
authors: Balm
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D017544:Aortic Aneurysm, Abdominal / Q000601:surgery*; D057867:Endoleak / Q000453:epidemiology*; D057510:Endovascular Procedures; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D012372:ROC Curve; D012086:Reoperation / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D015996:Survival Rate / Q000639:trends; D013997:Time Factors