title: Current thyroid cancer trends in the United States.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We have previously reported on a doubling of thyroid cancer incidence-largely due to the detection of small papillary cancers. Because they are commonly found in people who have died of other causes, and because thyroid cancer mortality had been stable, we argued that the increased incidence represented overdiagnosis.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To determine whether thyroid cancer incidence has stabilized.
  
  
  METHODS
  Analysis of secular trends in patients diagnosed with thyroid cancer, 1975 to 2009, using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program and thyroid cancer mortality from the National Vital Statistics System.
  
  
  METHODS
  Nine SEER areas (SEER 9): Atlanta, Georgia; Connecticut; Detroit, Michigan; Hawaii; Iowa; New Mexico; San Francisco-Oakland, California; Seattle-Puget Sound, Washington; and Utah.
  
  
  METHODS
  Men and women older than 18 years diagnosed as having a thyroid cancer between 1975 and 2009 who lived in the SEER 9 areas.
  
  
  METHODS
  None.
  
  
  METHODS
  Thyroid cancer incidence, histologic type, tumor size, and patient mortality. RESULTS Since 1975, the incidence of thyroid cancer has now nearly tripled, from 4.9 to 14.3 per 100,000 individuals (absolute increase, 9.4 per 100,000; relative rate [RR], 2.9; 95% CI, 2.7-3.1). Virtually the entire increase was attributable to papillary thyroid cancer: from 3.4 to 12.5 per 100,000 (absolute increase, 9.1 per 100,000; RR, 3.7; 95% CI, 3.4-4.0). The absolute increase in thyroid cancer in women (from 6.5 to 21.4 = 14.9 per 100,000 women) was almost 4 times greater than that of men (from 3.1 to 6.9 = 3.8 per 100,000 men). The mortality rate from thyroid cancer was stable between 1975 and 2009 (approximately 0.5 deaths per 100,000).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  There is an ongoing epidemic of thyroid cancer in the United States. The epidemiology of the increased incidence, however, suggests that it is not an epidemic of disease but rather an epidemic of diagnosis. The problem is particularly acute for women, who have lower autopsy prevalence of thyroid cancer than men but higher cancer detection rates by a 3:1 ratio.
authors.affiliation: VA Outcomes Group, Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center, White River Junction, Vermont2Section of Otolaryngology, Geisel School of Medicine, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire3Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice, Ha.
authors.forename: Louise
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Davies
authors.affiliation: Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice, Hanover, New Hampshire.
authors.forename: H Gilbert
authors.initials: HG
authors.lastname: Welch
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D013964:Thyroid Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology / Q000628:therapy; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology