title: Oligometastasis as a predictor for occult disease.
abstract: Oligometastasis can be defined as a state of limited metastases that is potentially amenable to ablative local therapy; the success of such therapy depends on whether or not additional occult metastases exist. A model is presented here to predict occult metastases given detectable oligometastases. Predictions were based on Bayes' theorem, in conjunction with descriptions of the statistical distributions for the sizes and numbers of hematogenous metastases. The background probability for occult metastases in individuals with oligometastases increased markedly with relatively minor increases in metastatic potential. With each additional metastasis detected the chance of further occult metastases increased. These latter increases were incremental and proportionately smaller with the more metastatic tumors. Long disease free intervals had a major effect to decrease in the probability of further occult disease. Demonstration of oligometastases depends heavily upon the sensitivity of radiological imaging techniques, where the proportion of detectable metastases relates to the position of the distribution of metastasis growth times with respect to the detection threshold. Given the limitations of radiological methods, and the possibility that the oligometastases detected may be the only disease, an aggressive approach appears indicated.
authors.affiliation: Division of Radiation Oncology, The Ottawa Hospital Cancer Centre, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada; The Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. Electronic address: wkendal@ottawahospital.on.ca.
authors.forename: Wayne S
authors.initials: WS
authors.lastname: Kendal
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D055641:Mathematical Concepts; D008546:Melanoma, Experimental / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000473:pathology / Q000556:secondary; D051379:Mice; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009362:Neoplasm Metastasis / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000473:pathology; D009382:Neoplasms, Unknown Primary / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000473:pathology
keywords: Bayes’ theorem; Cancer metastasis; Metastasis number distribution; Metastasis size distribution