title: How many clinic BP readings are needed to predict cardiovascular events as accurately as ambulatory BP monitoring?
abstract: We tested the hypothesis that multiple clinic blood pressure (BP) readings over an extended baseline period would be as predictive as ambulatory BP (ABP) for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Clinic and ABP monitoring were performed in 457 hypertensive patients at baseline. Clinic BP was measured monthly and the means of the first 3, 5 and 10 clinic BP readings were taken as the multiple clinic BP readings. The subjects were followed up, and stroke, HARD CVD, and ALL CVD events were determined as outcomes. In multivariate Cox regression analyses, ambulatory systolic BP (SBP) best predicted three outcomes independently of baseline and multiple clinic SBP readings. The mean of 10 clinic SBP readings predicted stroke (hazards ratio (HR)=1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.02-1.90, P=0.04) and ALL CVD (HR=1.41, 95% CI=1.13-1.74, P=0.002) independently of baseline clinic SBP. Clinic SBPs by three and five readings were not associated with any CVD events, except that clinic SBP by three readings was associated with ALL CVD (P=0.015). Besides ABP values, the mean of the first 10 clinic SBP values was a significant predictor of stroke and ALL CVD events. It is important to take more than several clinic BP readings early after the baseline period for the risk stratification of future CVD events.
authors.affiliation: Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Medicine, Jichi Medical University School of Medicine, Tochigi, Japan.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Eguchi
authors.affiliation: Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Medicine, Jichi Medical University School of Medicine, Tochigi, Japan.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hoshide
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Shin-Oyama City Hospital, Oyama, Japan.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Shimada
authors.affiliation: Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Medicine, Jichi Medical University School of Medicine, Tochigi, Japan.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Kario
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D001795:Blood Pressure Determination / Q000379:methods*; D018660:Blood Pressure Monitoring, Ambulatory; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000175:diagnosis*; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000175:diagnosis; D008297:Male; D012044:Regression Analysis; D020521:Stroke / Q000175:diagnosis