title: A decadal prediction of the quantity of plastic marine debris littered on beaches of the East Asian marginal seas.
abstract: Large quantities of plastic litter are expected to wash ashore along the beaches of the East Asian marginal seas in the coming decade. Litter quantities were predicted using three techniques: a particle tracking model (PTM) used in conjunction with two-way PTM experiments designed to reveal litter sources, an inverse method used to compute litter outflows at each source, and a sequential monitoring system designed to monitor existing beach litter using webcams. Modeled year-to-year variation in litter quantities indicated that the amount of litter would continue to increase in the East Asian marginal seas if the level of outflow remains constant in the coming decade. The study confirms that about 3% of all East Asian beaches may potentially experience a 250-fold increase in the amount of plastic beach litter washed ashore in the next 10 years.
authors.affiliation: Department of Ocean Civil Engineering, Kagoshima University, 1-21-40 Korimoto, Kagoshima 890-0065, Japan. Electronic address: kako@oce.kagoshima-u.ac.jp.
authors.forename: Shin'ichiro
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kako
authors.affiliation: Center for Marine Environmental Studies, Ehime University, 2-5 Bunkyo-cho, Matsuyama 790-8577, Japan.
authors.forename: Atsuhiko
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Isobe
authors.affiliation: Coastal Zone Systems Division, Coastal, Marine and Disaster Prevention Department, National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management, 3-1-1 Nagase, Yokosuka, Kanagawa 239-0826, Japan.
authors.forename: Tomoya
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Kataoka
authors.affiliation: Coastal Zone Systems Division, Coastal, Marine and Disaster Prevention Department, National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management, 3-1-1 Nagase, Yokosuka, Kanagawa 239-0826, Japan.
authors.forename: Hirofumi
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Hinata
mesh_terms: D001493:Bathing Beaches; D017753:Ecosystem; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D005202:Asia, Eastern; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D010969:Plastics / Q000032:analysis*; D013997:Time Factors; D014866:Waste Products / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D010969:Plastics; D014866:Waste Products
keywords: Decadal numerical prediction; East Asian marginal seas; Inverse method; Particle tracking model; Plastic beach litter; Web camera