title: Projecting the number of older singaporeans with activity of daily living limitations requiring human assistance through 2030.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  In the context of rapid population ageing and the increase in number of activity of daily living (ADL) limitations with age, the number of older persons requiring human assistance in Singapore is likely to grow. To promote informed planning for the needs of these elderly, we project the number of resident Singaporeans 60 years of age and older with 1 or more ADL limitations requiring human assistance through 2030.
  
  
  METHODS
  The proportion of community-dwelling older adults with ADL limitations requiring human assistance, stratified by gender and age group, was calculated utilising a recent nationally-representative survey of older Singaporeans. The proportion of older adults in nursing homes with ADL limitations was estimated based on available literature. Together, these prevalence estimates were applied to a simulation of the future population of older adults in Singapore to derive an estimate of the number of individuals with ADL limitations requiring human assistance through 2030.
  
  
  RESULTS
  By 2030, the number of resident Singaporeans aged 60 years or older with 1 or more ADL limitations requiring human assistance is projected to be 82,968 persons (7% of the total population aged 60 years or older). Of this number, 38,809 (47%) are estimated to have 1 or 2 ADL limitations, and 44,159 (53%) are estimated to have 3 or more.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The number of elderly Singaporeans with activity limitations is expected grow rapidly from 31,738 in 2010 to 82,968 in 2030. Estimates of the number of older individuals with ADL limitations requiring human assistance are of value for policymakers as well as acute and long-term care capacity planners as they seek to meet demand for health and social services in Singapore.
authors.affiliation: Department of Social Science and Policy Studies, Worcester Polytechnic Institute, Worcester, MA, USA.
authors.forename: James
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Thompson
authors.forename: Rahul
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Malhotra
authors.forename: Sean
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Love
authors.forename: Truls
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Ostbye
authors.forename: Angelique
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Chan
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Matchar
mesh_terms: D000203:Activities of Daily Living; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006299:Health Services for the Aged / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006707:Homes for the Aged / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D057187:Independent Living; D008134:Long-Term Care / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012846:Singapore