title: Water quality model parameter identification of an open channel in a long distance water transfer project based on finite difference, difference evolution and Monte Carlo.
abstract: A new method is proposed based on the finite difference method (FDM), differential evolution algorithm and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation to identify water quality model parameters of an open channel in a long distance water transfer project. Firstly, this parameter identification problem is considered as a Bayesian estimation problem and the forward numerical model is solved by FDM, and the posterior probability density function of the parameters is deduced. Then these parameters are estimated using a sampling method with differential evolution algorithm and MCMC simulation. Finally this proposed method is compared with FDM-MCMC by a twin experiment. The results show that the proposed method can be used to identify water quality model parameters of an open channel in a long distance water transfer project under different scenarios better with fewer iterations, higher reliability and anti-noise capability compared with FDM-MCMC. Therefore, it provides a new idea and method to solve the traceability problem in sudden water pollution accidents.
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Water Resources & Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Luojia Hill, Wuhan 430072, China E-mail: yanghd428@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Dongguo
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Shao
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Water Resources & Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Luojia Hill, Wuhan 430072, China E-mail: yanghd428@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Haidong
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Water Resources & Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Luojia Hill, Wuhan 430072, China E-mail: yanghd428@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Yi
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Xiao
authors.affiliation: Management Science & Engineering Department, Economics and Management School, Jiulonghu Campus, Southeast University, Jiangning District, Nanjing 211189, China.
authors.forename: Biyu
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Liu
mesh_terms: D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D060753:Water Quality; D014881:Water Supply