title: Assessing mumps outbreak risk in highly vaccinated populations using spatial seroprevalence data.
abstract: Mumps is a potentially severe viral infection. The incidence of mumps has declined dramatically in high-income countries since the introduction of mumps antigen-containing vaccines. However, recent large outbreaks of mumps in highly vaccinated populations suggest waning of vaccine-induced immunity and primary vaccine failure. In this paper we present a simple method for identifying geographic regions with high outbreak potential, demonstrated using 2006 mumps seroprevalence data from Belgium and Belgian vaccination coverage data. Predictions of the outbreak potential in terms of the effective reproduction number in future years signal an increased risk of new mumps outbreaks. Literature reviews on serological information for both primary vaccine failure and waning immunity provide essential information for our predictions. Tailor-made additional vaccination campaigns would be valuable for decreasing local pockets of susceptibility, thereby reducing the risk of future large-scale mumps outbreaks.
authors.forename: Steven
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Abrams
authors.forename: Philippe
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Beutels
authors.forename: Niel
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Hens
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000914:Antibodies, Viral / Q000097:blood; D001530:Belgium / Q000453:epidemiology; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D007074:Immunoglobulin G / Q000097:blood; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D022542:Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccine; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009107:Mumps / Q000097:blood / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000276:immunology / Q000517:prevention & control; D009109:Mumps virus / Q000276:immunology; D018570:Risk Assessment; D016036:Seroepidemiologic Studies; D062206:Spatial Analysis; D017211:Treatment Failure; D014611:Vaccination / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D000914:Antibodies, Viral; D007074:Immunoglobulin G; D022542:Measles-Mumps-Rubella Vaccine
keywords: disease outbreaks; effective reproduction number; mumps; next-generation operator; serology; social contact hypothesis; vaccination coverage; vaccines