title: Plastic surgery: quo vadis? Current trends and future projections of aesthetic plastic surgical procedures in the United States.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The objective of this article was to evaluate past and current trends regarding aesthetic operations in the United States and to project future changes regarding such procedures.
  
  
  METHODS
  Cosmetic surgery statistics from the American Society for Aesthetic Plastic Surgery from 1997 to 2012 were analyzed by sex, age, and ethnic group. Then, using population projections from the U.S. Census Bureau based on the 2010 census, two projection scenarios of the expected number of aesthetic plastic surgery procedures were generated. The scenarios included the presumed occurrence and nonoccurrence of a recession like that which occurred in 2007.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Aesthetic procedures are expected to grow from 1,688,694 in 2012 to 3,847,929 by 2030, representing an average annual growth rate of 7.1 percent. Should another recession of similar degree to the one in 2007 occur, procedures would increase to only 2,086,994, displaying an average annual growth percentage rate of 1.3 percent. Because the age distribution of the patient population will change, preferences for specific procedures according to age influence-and thus are reflected in-future demand for those procedures. Furthermore, the ethnic profile of patients will change significantly, with 32 percent of all procedures being performed on patients other than Caucasians by 2030.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Demand for aesthetic plastic surgical procedures is expected to continue to grow, while depending on the economic performance at the macro level and changing demographic dynamics of the U.S. population. Considering all investigated factors and trends among all patients, the most commonly requested procedures by 2030 are likely to be (1) breast augmentations, (2) lipoplasties, and (3) blepharoplasties.
authors.affiliation: Munich, Germany; and New York, N.Y. From Klinikum Bogenhausen Teaching Hospital, Technical University Munich; New York Medical University, Institute of Reconstructive Plastic Surgery; and United Nations Population Fund, Technical Division, Population and Development Branch.
authors.forename: P Niclas
authors.initials: PN
authors.lastname: Broer
authors.forename: Steven M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Levine
authors.forename: Sabrina
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Juran
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D019651:Plastic Surgery Procedures / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D013518:Surgery, Plastic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D014481:United States; D055815:Young Adult