title: The Norwegian Healthier Goats programme--a financial cost-benefit analysis.
abstract: The aim of this study was to evaluate the profitability to dairy goat farmers of participating in the Healthier Goats disease control and eradication programme (HG), which was initiated in 2001 and is still running. HG includes the control and eradication of caprine arthritis encephalitis (CAE), caseous lymphadenitis (CLA) and paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) in Norwegian goat herds. The profitability of participation was estimated in a financial cost-benefit analysis (CBA) using partial budgeting to quantify the economic consequences of infectious disease control through HG versus taking no action. Historical data were collected from 24 enrolled dairy goat herds and 21 herds not enrolled in HG, and supplemented with information from a questionnaire distributed to the same farmers. Expert opinions were collected to arrive at the best possible estimates. For some input parameters there were uncertainty due to imperfect knowledge, thus these parameters were modelled as PERT probability distributions and a stochastic simulation model was built. The CBA model was used to generate distributions of net present value (NPV) of farmers' net cash flows for choosing to enroll versus not enrolling. This was done for three selected milk quota levels of 30000L, 50000L and 70000L, and both for before and after the introduction of a reduced milk price for the non-enrolled. The NPVs were calculated over time horizons of 5, 10 and 20 years using an inflation-adjusted discount rate of 2.8% per annum. The results show that participation in HG on average was profitable over a time horizon of 10 years or longer for quota levels of 50000L and 70000L, although not without risk of having a negative NPV. If farmers had to pay all the costs themselves, participation in HG would have been profitable only for a time horizon beyond 20 years. In 2012, a reduced milk price was introduced for farmers not enrolled in HG, changing the decision criteria for farmers, and thus, the CBA. When the analysis was altered to account for these changes, the expected NPV was positive over five years for the 50000L quota, indicating an increased profitability of enrolling in HG. The sensitivity analysis showed that particular attention should be paid to work load and investment costs when planning for disease control programmes in the future.
authors.affiliation: Norwegian School of Veterinary Science, Department of Production Animal Clinical Science, P.O. Box 8146 Dep, N-0033 Oslo, Norway; TINE Extension Services, Goat Health Service, P.O. Box 58, N-1431 Ås, Norway. Electronic address: gunvor.elise.nagel_alne@nvh.no1.
authors.forename: G Elise
authors.initials: GE
authors.lastname: Nagel-Alne
authors.affiliation: Norwegian Agricultural Economics Research Institute, P.O. Box 8024 Dep, N-0030 Oslo, Norway.
authors.forename: Leif J
authors.initials: LJ
authors.lastname: Asheim
authors.affiliation: University of New England, Armidale, Australia.
authors.forename: J Brian
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Hardaker
authors.affiliation: TINE Extension Services, Goat Health Service, P.O. Box 58, N-1431 Ås, Norway.
authors.forename: Liv
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Sølverød
authors.affiliation: TINE Extension Services, Goat Health Service, P.O. Box 58, N-1431 Ås, Norway.
authors.forename: Dag
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Lindheim
authors.affiliation: Norwegian School of Veterinary Science, Department of Food Safety and Infection Biology, P.O. Box 8146 Dep, N-0033 Oslo, Norway; Kontali Analyse AS, Industriveien 18, 6517 Kristiansund, Norway.
authors.forename: Paul S
authors.initials: PS
authors.lastname: Valle
mesh_terms: D000822:Animal Husbandry / Q000379:methods; D000818:Animals; D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000379:methods; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D003612:Dairying; D015511:Goat Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006041:Goats; D009664:Norway / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Caprine arthritis encephalitis; Caseous lymphadenitis; Cost–benefit; Eradication; Goat; Johne's disease; Stochastic simulation