title: Did the elimination of lead from petrol reduce crime in the USA in the 1990s?
abstract: This article assesses the evidence for the hypothesis that a decline in all types of crime since the early 1990s in the USA was a consequence of removing lead from petrol between 1975 and 1985. It describes ecological and econometric studies that have generally but not always found correlations between lead exposures in childhood and some types of crime 20 years later; a small number of epidemiological studies that have found a dose-response relationship between lead exposure in childhood and self-reported and officially recorded criminal offences in young adulthood; and evidence for the biological plausibility of a causal relationship. Lead exposure in childhood may have played a small role in rising and falling crime rates in the USA but it is unlikely to account for the very high percentage of the decline suggested by the ecological studies. The major anomaly in the evidence is that the associations reported in ecological studies are much stronger (explaining 56-90% of the variation in crime rates) than the weaker relationships found in the cohort studies (that typically explain less than 1% of the variance in offending).  Suggestions are made for research that will better assess the contribution that reduced lead exposure has made to declining crime rates in the USA.
authors.affiliation: NHMRC Australia, The University of Queensland Centre for Clinical Research, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Wayne
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Hall