title: Predicting the development of diabetes using the product of triglycerides and glucose: the Chungju Metabolic Disease Cohort (CMC) study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  To determine whether the TyG index, a product of the levels of triglycerides and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) might be a valuable marker for predicting future diabetes.
  
  
  METHODS
  A total of 5,354 nondiabetic subjects who had completed their follow-up visit for evaluating diabetes status were selected from a large cohort of middle-aged Koreans in the Chungju Metabolic Disease Cohort study. The risk of diabetes was assessed according to the baseline TyG index, calculated as ln[fasting triglycerides (mg/dL) × FPG (mg/dL)/2]. The median follow-up period was 4.6 years.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During the follow-up period, 420 subjects (7.8%) developed diabetes. The baseline values of the TyG index were significantly higher in these subjects compared with nondiabetic subjects (8.9 ± 0.6 vs. 8.6 ± 0.6; P<0.0001) and the incidence of diabetes increased in proportion to TyG index quartiles. After adjusting for age, gender, body mass index, waist circumference, systolic blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol level, a family history of diabetes, smoking, alcohol drinking, education level and serum insulin level, the risk of diabetes onset was more than fourfold higher in the highest vs. the lowest quartile of the TyG index (relative risk, 4.095; 95% CI, 2.701-6.207). The predictive power of the TyG index was better than the triglyceride/HDL-cholesterol ratio or the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The TyG index, a simple measure reflecting insulin resistance, might be useful in identifying individuals at high risk of developing diabetes.
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea ; Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul St. Mary's Hospital, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Seung-Hwan
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea ; Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Yeouido St. Mary's Hospital, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Hyuk-Sang
authors.initials: HS
authors.lastname: Kwon
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea ; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Arnold School of Public Health, University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina, United States of America.
authors.forename: Yong-Moon
authors.initials: YM
authors.lastname: Park
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Hee-Sung
authors.initials: HS
authors.lastname: Ha
authors.affiliation: Clinical Research Coordinating Center, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Seung Hee
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Jeong
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea ; Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul St. Mary's Hospital, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Hae Kyung
authors.initials: HK
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: Catholic Institute of U-Healthcare, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Jin-Hee
authors.initials: JH
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea ; Clinical Research Coordinating Center, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Hyeon-Woo
authors.initials: HW
authors.lastname: Yim
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea ; Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul St. Mary's Hospital, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Moo-Il
authors.initials: MI
authors.lastname: Kang
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Won-Chul
authors.initials: WC
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea ; Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul St. Mary's Hospital, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Ho-Young
authors.initials: HY
authors.lastname: Son
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Korea ; Division of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Department of Internal Medicine, Seoul St. Mary's Hospital, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Kun-Ho
authors.initials: KH
authors.lastname: Yoon
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000428:Alcohol Drinking; D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000378:metabolism*; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology; D004522:Educational Status; D005215:Fasting; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D056910:Republic of Korea / Q000453:epidemiology; D012307:Risk Factors; D012907:Smoking; D014280:Triglycerides / Q000097:blood*
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose; D014280:Triglycerides