title: Using mathematical transmission modelling to investigate drivers of respiratory syncytial virus seasonality in children in the Philippines.
abstract: We used a mathematical transmission model to estimate when ecological drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmissibility would need to act in order to produce the observed seasonality of RSV in the Philippines. We estimated that a seasonal peak in transmissibility would need to occur approximately 51 days prior to the observed peak in RSV cases (range 49 to 67 days). We then compared this estimated seasonal pattern of transmissibility to the seasonal patterns of possible ecological drivers of transmissibility: rainfall, humidity and temperature patterns, nutritional status, and school holidays. The timing of the seasonal patterns of nutritional status and rainfall were both consistent with the estimated seasonal pattern of transmissibility and these are both plausible drivers of the seasonality of RSV in this setting.
authors.affiliation: School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Stuart
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Paynter
authors.affiliation: School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Laith
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Yakob
authors.affiliation: University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado, United States of America ; Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Aurora, Colorado, United States of America.
authors.forename: Eric A F
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Simões
authors.affiliation: Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Department of Health, Muntinlupa City, Metro Manila, Philippines.
authors.forename: Marilla G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Lucero
authors.affiliation: Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Department of Health, Muntinlupa City, Metro Manila, Philippines.
authors.forename: Veronica
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Tallo
authors.affiliation: Department of Vaccines and Immune Protection, National Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: Hanna
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Nohynek
authors.affiliation: School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia ; Queensland Children's Medical Research Institute, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Robert S
authors.initials: RS
authors.lastname: Ware
authors.affiliation: Barbara Hardy Institute, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia.
authors.forename: Philip
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Weinstein
authors.affiliation: School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Gail
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.affiliation: Queensland Children's Medical Research Institute, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Peter D
authors.initials: PD
authors.lastname: Sly
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010679:Philippines / Q000453:epidemiology; D018357:Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D018113:Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human; D012621:Seasons; D016036:Seroepidemiologic Studies