title: Integrating scientific guidance into marine spatial planning.
abstract: Marine spatial planning (MSP), whereby areas of the ocean are zoned for different uses, has great potential to reduce or eliminate conflicts between competing management goals, but only if strategically applied. The recent literature overwhelmingly agrees that including stakeholders in these planning processes is critical to success; but, given the countless alternative ways even simple spatial regulations can be configured, how likely is it that a stakeholder-driven process will generate plans that deliver on the promise of MSP? Here, we use a spatially explicit, dynamic bioeconomic model to show that stakeholder-generated plans are doomed to fail in the absence of strong scientific guidance. While strategically placed spatial regulations can improve outcomes remarkably, the vast majority of possible plans fail to achieve this potential. Surprisingly, existing scientific rules of thumb do little to improve outcomes. Here, we develop an alternative approach in which models are used to identify efficient plans, which are then modified by stakeholders. Even if stakeholders alter these initial proposals considerably, results hugely outperform plans guided by scientific rules of thumb. Our results underscore the importance of spatially explicit dynamic models for the management of marine resources and illustrate how such models can be harmoniously integrated into a stakeholder-driven MSP process.
authors.affiliation: Marine Science Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, , Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA, Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California Santa Barbara, , Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA, Earth Research Institute and Department of Geography, University of California Santa Barbara, , Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA, School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, , Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
authors.forename: Andrew
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rassweiler
authors.forename: Christopher
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Costello
authors.forename: Ray
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Hilborn
authors.forename: David A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Siegel
mesh_terms: D063147:Animal Distribution / Q000502:physiology*; D000818:Animals; D003256:Community Participation / Q000379:methods*; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000191:economics / Q000379:methods*; D017753:Ecosystem; D005398:Fisheries / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005399:Fishes / Q000502:physiology*; D033161:Government Regulation; D008954:Models, Biological; D010140:Pacific Ocean; D011157:Population Dynamics; D012617:Sea Urchins / Q000502:physiology*
keywords: bioeconomics; ecological modelling; marine spatial planning; marine-protected areas; reserve design