title: Characterizing urban vulnerability to heat stress using a spatially varying coefficient model.
abstract: Identifying and characterizing urban vulnerability to heat is a key step in designing intervention strategies to combat negative consequences of extreme heat on human health. This study combines excess non-accidental mortality counts, numerical weather simulations, US Census and parcel data into an assessment of vulnerability to heat in Houston, Texas. Specifically, a hierarchical model with spatially varying coefficients is used to account for differences in vulnerability among census block groups. Socio-economic and demographic variables from census and parcel data are selected via a forward selection algorithm where at each step the remaining variables are orthogonalized with respect to the chosen variables to account for collinearity. Daily minimum temperatures and composite heat indices (e.g. discomfort index) provide a better model fit than other ambient temperature measurements (e.g. maximum temperature, relative humidity). Positive interactions between elderly populations and heat exposure were found suggesting these populations are more responsive to increases in heat.
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Brigham Young University, 223 TMCB, Provo, UT 84602, United States. Electronic address: mheaton@stat.byu.edu.
authors.forename: Matthew J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Heaton
authors.affiliation: Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Box 80307-3000, Boulder, CO, United States. Electronic address: ssain@ucar.edu.
authors.forename: Stephan R
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Sain
authors.affiliation: Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Box 80307-3000, Boulder, CO, United States. Electronic address: tgreasby@ucar.edu.
authors.forename: Tamara A
authors.initials: TA
authors.lastname: Greasby
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, Florida State University, PO Box 3062190, Tallahassee, FL 32306-2190, United States. Electronic address: cuejio@fsu.edu.
authors.forename: Christopher K
authors.initials: CK
authors.lastname: Uejio
authors.affiliation: Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Box 80307-3000, Boulder, CO, United States. Electronic address: mhayden@ucar.edu.
authors.forename: Mary H
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Hayden
authors.affiliation: Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Box 80307-3000, Boulder, CO, United States. Electronic address: monaghan@ucar.edu.
authors.forename: Andrew J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Monaghan
authors.affiliation: Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Box 80307-3000, Boulder, CO, United States. Electronic address: boehnert@ucar.edu.
authors.forename: Jennifer
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Boehnert
authors.affiliation: Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Box 80307-3000, Boulder, CO, United States. Electronic address: ksampson@ucar.edu.
authors.forename: Kevin
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Sampson
authors.affiliation: Houston Department of Public Health and Human Services, Box 1652, Houston, TX 77054, United States. Electronic address: deborah.banerjee@houstontx.gov.
authors.forename: Deborah
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Banerjee
authors.affiliation: Houston Department of Public Health and Human Services, Box 1652, Houston, TX 77054, United States. Electronic address: vishnu.nepal@houstontx.gov.
authors.forename: Vishnu
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Nepal
authors.affiliation: Research Applications Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Box 80307-3000, Boulder, CO, United States. Electronic address: olgaw@ucar.edu.
authors.forename: Olga V
authors.initials: OV
authors.lastname: Wilhelmi
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D018882:Heat Stress Disorders / Q000209:etiology / Q000401:mortality; D006358:Hot Temperature / Q000009:adverse effects*; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D062211:Spatio-Temporal Analysis; D013781:Texas / Q000453:epidemiology; D014505:Urban Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
keywords: Environmental health; Heat stress; Hierarchical model; Socioeconomic disparity; Urban vulnerability