title: Resilience of natural gas networks during conflicts, crises and disruptions.
abstract: Human conflict, geopolitical crises, terrorist attacks, and natural disasters can turn large parts of energy distribution networks offline. Europe's current gas supply network is largely dependent on deliveries from Russia and North Africa, creating vulnerabilities to social and political instabilities. During crises, less delivery may mean greater congestion, as the pipeline network is used in ways it has not been designed for. Given the importance of the security of natural gas supply, we develop a model to handle network congestion on various geographical scales. We offer a resilient response strategy to energy shortages and quantify its effectiveness for a variety of relevant scenarios. In essence, Europe's gas supply can be made robust even to major supply disruptions, if a fair distribution strategy is applied.
authors.affiliation: School of Mathematical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Rui
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Carvalho
authors.affiliation: University of Zilina, Univerzitna 8215/1, Zilina, Slovakia.
authors.forename: Lubos
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Buzna
authors.affiliation: European Laboratory for Structural Assessment, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC), Joint Research Centre, Ispra(VA), Italy.
authors.forename: Flavio
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Bono
authors.affiliation: Energy Security Unit, Institute for Energy and Transport, Joint Research Centre, Petten, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Marcelo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Masera
authors.affiliation: School of Mathematical Sciences, Queen Mary University of London, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: David K
authors.initials: DK
authors.lastname: Arrowsmith
authors.affiliation: ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Risk Center, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Dirk
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Helbing
mesh_terms: D003220:Conflict, Psychological; D004190:Disasters; D005060:Europe; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D059206:Natural Gas / Q000600:supply & distribution*
chemical_list: D059206:Natural Gas