title: Validation of the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) in heart failure population.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine the effectiveness of Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) in a Pakistani systolic heart failure cohort in predicting mortality in this population.
  
  
  METHODS
  Cohort study.
  
  
  METHODS
  The Armed Forces Institute of Cardiology - National Institute of Heart Diseases, Rawalpindi, from March 2011 to March 2012.
  
  
  METHODS
  One hundred and eighteen patients with heart failure (HF) from the registry were followed for one year. Their 1-year mortality was calculated using the SHFM software on their enrollment into the registry. After 1-year predicted 1-year mortality was compared with the actual 1-year mortality of these patients.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The mean age was 41.6 ± 14.9 years (16 - 78 years). There were 73.7% males and 26.3% females. One hundred and fifteen patients were in NYHA class III or IV. Mean ejection fraction in these patients was 23 ± 9.3%. Mean brain natriuretic peptide levels were 1230 ± 1214 pg/mL. Sensitivity of the model was 89.3% with 71.1% specificity, 49% positive predictive value and 95.5% negative predictive value. The accuracy of the model was 75.4%. In ROC analysis, AUC for the SHFM was 0.802 (p < 0.001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  SHFM was found to be reliable in predicting one-year mortality among patients with heart failure in the Pakistani patients.
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, Armed Forces Institute of Cardiology - National Institute of Heart Diseases, Rawalpindi.
authors.forename: Sajjad
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hussain
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiology, Armed Forces Institute of Cardiology, National Institute of Heart Diseases, Rawalpindi.
authors.forename: Azhar Mahmood
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Kayani
authors.affiliation: Heart Transplant and Research Department, Armed Forces Institute of Cardiology, National Institute of Heart Diseases, Rawalpindi.
authors.forename: Rubab
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Munir
authors.affiliation: Centre of Research in Experimental and Applied Medicine, N.U.S.T., Islamabad.
authors.forename: Irum
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Abid
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006333:Heart Failure / Q000401:mortality*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D020097:Natriuretic Peptide, Brain; D010154:Pakistan; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012372:ROC Curve; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D017678:Sex Distribution; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D020097:Natriuretic Peptide, Brain