title: Spleen stiffness measurement can predict clinical complications in compensated HCV-related cirrhosis: a prospective study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) measurement represents the best predictor of clinical decompensation (CD) in cirrhotic patients. Recently data show that measurement of spleen stiffness (SS) has an excellent correlation with HVPG levels. Aim of the present prospective study was to assess SS predictive value for CD compared to HVPG, liver stiffness (LS), and other non-invasive tests for portal hypertension in a cohort of patients with HCV-related compensated cirrhosis.
  
  
  METHODS
  From an initial cohort of 124 patients, 92 underwent baseline LS, SS, HVPG measurements and upper gastrointestinal endoscopy at enrolment and then followed-up for 2 years or until the occurrence of the first CD. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used for determining judgement criteria associated parameters. Accuracy of predictive factors was evaluated using c statistic. The final model was internally validated using the bootstrap method.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During follow-up, 30 out 92 (32.6%) patients developed CD. At univariate analysis varices at enrolment, all non-invasive parameters, HVPG, and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) resulted clinical predictors of CD. At multivariate analysis only SS (p=0.0001) and MELD (p=0.014) resulted as predictive factors. A decision algorithm based on the results of a predictive model was proposed to detect patients with low risk of decompensation.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study shows that in compensated cirrhotic patients a SS and MELD predictive model represents an accurate predictor of CD with accuracy at least equivalent to that of HVPG. If confirmed by further studies, SS and MELD could represent valid alternatives to HVPG as prognostic indicator of CD in HCV-related cirrhosis.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Italy. Electronic address: antonio.colecchia@aosp.bo.it.
authors.forename: Antonio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Colecchia
authors.affiliation: Department of Internal Medicine, General Hospital, Lecco, Italy.
authors.forename: Agostino
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Colli
authors.affiliation: Department of Biomedical and Clinical Sciences "L.Sacco", University of Milano, Italy.
authors.forename: Giovanni
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Casazza
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Italy.
authors.forename: Daniele
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Mandolesi
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Italy.
authors.forename: Ramona
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Schiumerini
authors.affiliation: Department of Experimental, Diagnostic and Specialist Medicine, University of Bologna, Italy.
authors.forename: Letizia Bacchi
authors.initials: LB
authors.lastname: Reggiani
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Italy.
authors.forename: Giovanni
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Marasco
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Italy.
authors.forename: Martina
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Taddia
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Italy.
authors.forename: Andrea
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Lisotti
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Italy.
authors.forename: Giuseppe
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Mazzella
authors.affiliation: Department of Pediatrics, University of Modena, Italy.
authors.forename: Anna Rita
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Di Biase
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Italy.
authors.forename: Rita
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Golfieri
authors.affiliation: UCL Institute for Liver and Digestive Health, Royal Free Hospital, London, UK.
authors.forename: Massimo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Pinzani
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Italy.
authors.forename: Davide
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Festi
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D018572:Disease-Free Survival; D054459:Elasticity Imaging Techniques / Q000379:methods*; D004932:Esophageal and Gastric Varices / Q000209:etiology; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D019698:Hepatitis C, Chronic / Q000150:complications*; D006801:Humans; D006975:Hypertension, Portal / Q000150:complications*; D008103:Liver Cirrhosis / Q000150:complications*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D013158:Splenic Diseases / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000209:etiology*
keywords: HVPG; Liver stiffness; Portal hypertension; Spleen