title: Transmission potential of the novel avian influenza A(H7N9) infection in mainland China.
abstract: We propose and analyze a mathematical model to mimic its transmission dynamics to assess the transmission potential of the novel avian influenza A(H7N9) virus. By fitting the model to data of the confirmed human cases we estimate the reproduction number for human-to-human transmission as 0.467 (95% CI 0.387-0.651). Simulation results indicate that approximate twofold of the current human-to-human transmission rate or periodic outbreaks of avian influenza in poultry may induce an outbreak in human. Through the recent limited transmission potential of the novel avian influenza A(H7N9) virus, a new outbreak may be possible due to virus mutation and adaption or periodic outbreaks in poultry, and hence careful surveillance and persistent intervention strategies in poultry have to be required.
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Mathematics, School of Mathematics & Statistics, Xi׳an Jiaotong University, Xi׳an 710049, PR China. Electronic address: yxiao@mail.xjtu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Yanni
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Xiao
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Mathematics, School of Mathematics & Statistics, Xi׳an Jiaotong University, Xi׳an 710049, PR China.
authors.forename: Xiaodan
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.affiliation: College of Mathematics and Information Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi׳an 710062, PR China.
authors.forename: Sanyi
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Tang
authors.affiliation: Centre for Disease Modelling, York University, Toronto, Ontario, Canada M3J 1P3.
authors.forename: Jianhong
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wu
mesh_terms: D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D064766:Influenza A Virus, H7N9 Subtype / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical
keywords: Basic reproduction number; Interventions; Mathematical model; Outbreak