title: Climate change impacts on mass movements--case studies from the European Alps.
abstract: This paper addresses the current knowledge on climate change impacts on mass movement activity in mountain environments by illustrating characteristic cases of debris flows, rock slope failures and landslides from the French, Italian, and Swiss Alps. It is expected that events are likely to occur less frequently during summer, whereas the anticipated increase of rainfall in spring and fall could likely alter debris-flow activity during the shoulder seasons (March, April, November, and December). The magnitude of debris flows could become larger due to larger amounts of sediment delivered to the channels and as a result of the predicted increase in heavy precipitation events. At the same time, however, debris-flow volumes in high-mountain areas will depend chiefly on the stability and/or movement rates of permafrost bodies, and destabilized rock glaciers could lead to debris flows without historic precedents in the future. The frequency of rock slope failures is likely to increase, as excessively warm air temperatures, glacier shrinkage, as well as permafrost warming and thawing will affect and reduce rock slope stability in the direction that adversely affects rock slope stability. Changes in landslide activity in the French and Western Italian Alps will likely depend on differences in elevation. Above 1500 m asl, the projected decrease in snow season duration in future winters and springs will likely affect the frequency, number and seasonality of landslide reactivations. In Piemonte, for instance, 21st century landslides have been demonstrated to occur more frequently in early spring and to be triggered by moderate rainfalls, but also to occur in smaller numbers. On the contrary, and in line with recent observations, events in autumn, characterized by a large spatial density of landslide occurrences might become more scarce in the Piemonte region.
authors.affiliation: Climatic Change and Climate Impacts, Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Chemin de Drize 7, CH-1227 Carouge, Switzerland; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Geneva, Rue des Maraîchers 13, CH-1211 Geneva 4, Switzerland; Dendrolab.ch, Institute of Geological Sciences, University of Bern, Baltzerstrasse 1+3, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland. Electronic address: markus.stoffel@dendrolab.ch.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Stoffel
authors.affiliation: Hydrology and Natural Hazards, Regional Agency for Environmental Protection of Piemonte (ARPA Piemonte), Via Pio VII 9, I-10135 Torino, Italy.
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Tiranti
authors.affiliation: Physical Geography Division, Department of Geography, University of Zurich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, CH-8057 Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Huggel
keywords: Climate change; Debris flows; Impacts; Landslides; Mass movements; Rockfalls