title: A probabilistic, dynamic, and attribute-wise model of intertemporal choice.
abstract: Most theoretical and empirical research on intertemporal choice assumes a deterministic and static perspective, leading to the widely adopted delay discounting models. As a form of preferential choice, however, intertemporal choice may be generated by a stochastic process that requires some deliberation time to reach a decision. We conducted 3 experiments to investigate how choice and decision time varied as a function of manipulations designed to examine the delay duration effect, the common difference effect, and the magnitude effect in intertemporal choice. The results, especially those associated with the delay duration effect, challenged the traditional deterministic and static view and called for alternative approaches. Consequently, various static or dynamic stochastic choice models were explored and fit to the choice data, including alternative-wise models derived from the traditional exponential or hyperbolic discount function and attribute-wise models built upon comparisons of direct or relative differences in money and delay. Furthermore, for the first time, dynamic diffusion models, such as those based on decision field theory, were also fit to the choice and response time data simultaneously. The results revealed that the attribute-wise diffusion model with direct differences, power transformations of objective value and time, and varied diffusion parameter performed the best and could account for all 3 intertemporal effects. In addition, the empirical relationship between choice proportions and response times was consistent with the prediction of diffusion models and thus favored a stochastic choice process for intertemporal choice that requires some deliberation time to make a decision.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences.
authors.forename: Junyi
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Dai
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences.
authors.forename: Jerome R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Busemeyer
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D002755:Choice Behavior / Q000502:physiology*; D065786:Delay Discounting; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008960:Models, Psychological; D011336:Probability; D011930:Reaction Time / Q000502:physiology; D012201:Reward; D055815:Young Adult