title: Filling in the blanks. An estimation of illicit cannabis growers' profits in Belgium.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  As a result of increased pressure on cannabis cultivation in The Netherlands, the number of confiscated indoor cannabis plantations in Belgium is rising. Although increases are reported for all plantations sizes, half of the seized plantations contain less than 50 plants. In this study, factors and variables that influence costs and benefits of indoor cannabis cultivation are investigated as well as how these costs and benefits vary between different cannabis grower types.
  
  
  METHODS
  Real-situation data of four growers were used to perform financial analyses. Costs included fixed and variable material costs, as well as opportunity costs. Gross revenue per grow cycle was calculated based on most recent forensic findings for illicit Belgian cannabis plantations and was adjusted for the risk of getting caught. Finally, gross revenues and return on costs (ROC) were calculated over 1 year (4 cycles).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Financial analysis shows that in all cases gross revenues as well as ROC are considerable, even after a single growth cycle. Highest profitability was found for large-scale (600 plants, ROC=6.8) and mid-scale plantations (150 plants, ROC=6.0). However, industrial plantations (23,000 plants, ROC=1.4) and micro-scale plantations (5 plants, ROC=2.8) are also highly remunerative. Shift of police focus away from micro-scale growers, least likely to be involved in criminal gangs, to large-scale and industrial scale plantations would influence costs as a result of changing risks of getting caught. However, sensitivity analysis shows that this does not significantly influence the conclusions on profitability of different types of indoor cannabis growers.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Seizure and confiscation of profits are important elements in the integral and integrated policy approach required for tackling illicit indoor cannabis plantations. The large return of costs evidenced in the present study, underpin the policy relevance of confiscating those illicit profits as part of enforcement.
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Tropical and Subtropical Agriculture and Ethnobotany, Department of Plant Production, Faculty of Bio-Science Engineering, Ghent University, Coupure Links 653, 9000 Gent, Belgium. Electronic address: Wouter.Vanhove@UGent.be.
authors.forename: Wouter
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Vanhove
authors.affiliation: FCSH - Faculdade de Ciências Sociais e Humanas, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Avenida de Berna 26-C, 1069-061 Lisbon, Portugal; Institute for International Research on Criminal Policy, Department of Criminal Law and Criminology, Faculty of Law, Ghent University, Universiteitstraat 4, 9000 Gent, Belgium. Electronic address: Surmont.Tim@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Tim
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Surmont
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Tropical and Subtropical Agriculture and Ethnobotany, Department of Plant Production, Faculty of Bio-Science Engineering, Ghent University, Coupure Links 653, 9000 Gent, Belgium; Faculty of Tropical AgriSciences, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Kamycka 129, Prague 6, Suchdol 165 21, Czech Republic. Electronic address: Patrick.VanDamme@UGent.be.
authors.forename: Patrick
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Van Damme
authors.affiliation: Institute for International Research on Criminal Policy, Department of Criminal Law and Criminology, Faculty of Law, Ghent University, Universiteitstraat 4, 9000 Gent, Belgium. Electronic address: Brice.DeRuyver@UGent.be.
authors.forename: Brice
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: De Ruyver
mesh_terms: D001530:Belgium; D002188:Cannabis / Q000254:growth & development*; D003132:Commerce / Q000191:economics* / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D003415:Crime / Q000191:economics*; D006801:Humans; D012306:Risk
keywords: Cannabis; Price setting; Profits; Rate of return on costs; Snowball sampling