title: Sub regional estimates of morbidities in the English elderly population.
abstract: This study focuses on identifying the future trends and spatial concentrations of morbidities in the English elderly population. The morbidities to be estimated are: coronary heart disease; strokes; diabetes; cancer; respiratory illnesses and arthritis in the 60 year and older household residential population. The technique used is a spatial microsimulation of the elderly population of local authorities in England using data from the 2001 Census and the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. The longitudinal nature of the microsimulated population is then used to estimate the morbidity prevalences for local authorities in 2010/2011. With this knowledge, planners will be able to focus the available health and care resources in those areas with greatest need. For most of these morbidities, there is evidence of a strong correlation between the type of authority and the estimated prevalence rates.
authors.affiliation: School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom. Electronic address: gysc@leeds.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Stephen D
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Clark
authors.affiliation: School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Birkin
authors.affiliation: School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Alison
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Heppenstall
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D001168:Arthritis / Q000453:epidemiology; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000453:epidemiology; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000453:epidemiology; D004739:England / Q000453:epidemiology; D004813:Epidemiology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology; D011157:Population Dynamics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D012140:Respiratory Tract Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology; D062206:Spatial Analysis; D020521:Stroke / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Elderly; England; Health; Local authority; Prevalence