title: External validation of a prognostic model predicting overall survival in metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer patients treated with abiraterone.
abstract: A prognostic model was derived from the population of the COU-AA-301 phase 3 trial for metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer patients treated with abiraterone after docetaxel, and it stratifies patients into three risk groups based on clinical parameters. We validated this model in an independent cohort of patients treated with abiraterone after docetaxel outside a clinical trial (group A; n=94) and explored its utility in patients treated with abiraterone in the prechemotherapy setting (group B; n=64). For group A, median overall survival (mOS) was significantly different across the three prognostic groups (good: n=39, mOS: 21.8 mo; intermediate: n=44, mOS: 10.6 mo; poor: n=7, mOS: 6.8 mo; p<0.001; area under the curve [AUC]: 0.71). Analysis of group B confirmed the ability of the model to prognosticate for survival in the prechemotherapy setting: (good: n=44, mOS: 45.6 mo; intermediate or poor: n=20, mOS: 34.5 mo; p=0.042; AUC: 0.61). These results serve to validate the prognostic model in an independent population treated with abiraterone after docetaxel and support clinical implementation of the score. Calibration of the model was poorer in patients receiving abiraterone prechemotherapy. Prospective evaluation of this model in clinical trials is needed.
authors.affiliation: The Institute of Cancer Research and the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, Sutton, Surrey, UK.
authors.forename: Praful
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Ravi
authors.affiliation: The Institute of Cancer Research and the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, Sutton, Surrey, UK.
authors.forename: Joaquin
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Mateo
authors.affiliation: The Institute of Cancer Research and the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, Sutton, Surrey, UK.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Lorente
authors.affiliation: The Institute of Cancer Research and the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, Sutton, Surrey, UK.
authors.forename: Zafeiris
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Zafeiriou
authors.affiliation: The Institute of Cancer Research and the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, Sutton, Surrey, UK.
authors.forename: Amelia
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Altavilla
authors.affiliation: The Institute of Cancer Research and the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, Sutton, Surrey, UK.
authors.forename: Roberta
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Ferraldeschi
authors.affiliation: The Institute of Cancer Research and the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, Sutton, Surrey, UK.
authors.forename: Spyridon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sideris
authors.affiliation: The Institute of Cancer Research and the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, Sutton, Surrey, UK.
authors.forename: Emily
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Grist
authors.affiliation: The Institute of Cancer Research and the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, Sutton, Surrey, UK.
authors.forename: Alan
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.affiliation: The Institute of Cancer Research and the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, Sutton, Surrey, UK.
authors.forename: Sophia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Wong
authors.affiliation: The Institute of Cancer Research and the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, Sutton, Surrey, UK.
authors.forename: Diletta
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Bianchini
authors.affiliation: The Institute of Cancer Research and the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, Sutton, Surrey, UK.
authors.forename: Gerhardt
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Attard
authors.affiliation: The Institute of Cancer Research and the Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust, Sutton, Surrey, UK. Electronic address: johann.de-bono@icr.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Johann S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: de Bono
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000736:Androstenes; D000737:Androstenols / Q000008:administration & dosage; D000971:Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D019540:Area Under Curve; D000077143:Docetaxel; D006801:Humans; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009362:Neoplasm Metastasis; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D064129:Prostatic Neoplasms, Castration-Resistant / Q000188:drug therapy* / Q000401:mortality / Q000473:pathology*; D012372:ROC Curve; D015996:Survival Rate; D043823:Taxoids / Q000008:administration & dosage; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D000736:Androstenes; D000737:Androstenols; D043823:Taxoids; D000077143:Docetaxel; C089740:abiraterone
keywords: Abiraterone; Castrate-resistant prostate cancer; Prognosis