title: Estimating HIV incidence in eastern European country of Georgia: 2010-2012.
abstract: The knowledge of HIV incidence is essential to better understand patterns of HIV transmission. We estimated HIV incidence over 2010-2012 in the eastern European country of Georgia. Mathematical modeling using Spectrum software and assay-based recent infection testing algorithm were applied. The study included 1155 HIV patients newly diagnosed in 2010-2012 (84% of total diagnoses). Of them, 231 were determined to be recently infected on the recent infection testing algorithm. The proportion of recent cases did not differ between 2010, 2011 and 2012 (20.4% vs. 19.4% vs. 20.2%, p = 0.94). Both study methods derived comparable estimates ranging from 0.2 to 0.3%, which is up to twice as high as rates of new diagnosis reported in the same period. Despite the relatively stable HIV incidence over 2010-2012, the epidemic continues to grow because of the increasing gap between HIV-infected and diagnosed persons. Increased efforts are needed to reduce the number of people with undiagnosed HIV.
authors.affiliation: Infectious Diseases, AIDS and Clinical Immunology Research Center, Tbilisi, Georgia I. Javakhishvili Tbilisi State University, Tbilisi, Georgia tengizt@gol.ge.
authors.forename: Tengiz
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Tsertsvadze
authors.affiliation: Infectious Diseases, AIDS and Clinical Immunology Research Center, Tbilisi, Georgia.
authors.forename: Nikoloz
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Chkhartishvili
authors.affiliation: Infectious Diseases, AIDS and Clinical Immunology Research Center, Tbilisi, Georgia.
authors.forename: Natia
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Dvali
authors.affiliation: Infectious Diseases, AIDS and Clinical Immunology Research Center, Tbilisi, Georgia.
authors.forename: Marine
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Karchava
authors.affiliation: Infectious Diseases, AIDS and Clinical Immunology Research Center, Tbilisi, Georgia.
authors.forename: Otar
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Chokoshvili
authors.affiliation: UNAIDS Country Office to Georgia, Tbilisi, Georgia.
authors.forename: Lia
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Tavadze
authors.affiliation: National Center for Diseases Control and Public Health, Tbilisi, Georgia.
authors.forename: Amiran
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gamkrelidze
authors.affiliation: UNAIDS Regional Support Team, Europe and Central Asia, Moscow, Russian Federation.
authors.forename: Lev
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Zohrabyan
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D058872:Epidemics; D005260:Female; D005846:Georgia (Republic) / Q000453:epidemiology; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D018451:Homosexuality, Male; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012309:Risk-Taking; D015819:Substance Abuse, Intravenous / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology; D044465:White People / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: AIDS; Eastern Europe; HIV; diagnosis; epidemiology; incidence; injection drug users; men who have sex with men; recent infection