title: A prediction model for 5-year cardiac mortality in patients with chronic heart failure using ¹²³I-metaiodobenzylguanidine imaging.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Prediction of mortality risk is important in the management of chronic heart failure (CHF). The aim of this study was to create a prediction model for 5-year cardiac death including assessment of cardiac sympathetic innervation using data from a multicenter cohort study in Japan.
  
  
  METHODS
  The original pooled database consisted of cohort studies from six sites in Japan. A total of 933 CHF patients who underwent (123)I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) imaging and whose 5-year outcomes were known were selected from this database. The late MIBG heart-to-mediastinum ratio (HMR) was used for quantification of cardiac uptake. Cox proportional hazard and logistic regression analyses were used to select appropriate variables for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality. The formula for predicting 5-year mortality was created using a logistic regression model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During the 5-year follow-up, 205 patients (22 %) died of a cardiac event including heart failure death, sudden cardiac death and fatal acute myocardial infarction (64 %, 30 % and 6 %, respectively). Multivariate logistic analysis selected four parameters, including New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, age, gender and left ventricular ejection fraction, without HMR (model 1) and five parameters with the addition of HMR (model 2). The net reclassification improvement analysis for all subjects was 13.8 % (p < 0.0001) by including HMR and its inclusion was most effective in the downward reclassification of low-risk patients. Nomograms for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality were created from the five-parameter regression model.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Cardiac MIBG imaging had a significant additive value for predicting cardiac mortality. The prediction formula and nomograms can be used for risk stratifying in patients with CHF.
authors.affiliation: Department of Nuclear Medicine, Kanazawa University Hospital, 13-1 Takara-machi, Kanazawa, 920-8641, Japan, nakajima@med.kanazawa-u.ac.jp.
authors.forename: Kenichi
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Nakajima
authors.forename: Tomoaki
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Nakata
authors.forename: Takahisa
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Yamada
authors.forename: Shohei
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Yamashina
authors.forename: Mitsuru
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Momose
authors.forename: Shu
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kasama
authors.forename: Toshiki
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Matsui
authors.forename: Shinro
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Matsuo
authors.forename: Mark I
authors.initials: MI
authors.lastname: Travin
authors.forename: Arnold F
authors.initials: AF
authors.lastname: Jacobson
mesh_terms: D019797:3-Iodobenzylguanidine; D000704:Analysis of Variance; D002908:Chronic Disease / Q000401:mortality; D003643:Death; D005260:Female; D006333:Heart Failure / Q000000981:diagnostic imaging* / Q000401:mortality*; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011877:Radionuclide Imaging; D012306:Risk
chemical_list: D019797:3-Iodobenzylguanidine