title: Mathematical modeling of HIV prevention measures including pre-exposure prophylaxis on HIV incidence in South Korea.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Multiple prevention measures have the possibility of impacting HIV incidence in South Korea, including early diagnosis, early treatment, and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We investigated how each of these interventions could impact the local HIV epidemic, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM), who have become the major risk group in South Korea. A mathematical model was used to estimate the effects of each these interventions on the HIV epidemic in South Korea over the next 40 years, as compared to the current situation.
  
  
  METHODS
  We constructed a mathematical model of HIV infection among MSM in South Korea, dividing the MSM population into seven groups, and simulated the effects of early antiretroviral therapy (ART), early diagnosis, PrEP, and combination interventions on the incidence and prevalence of HIV infection, as compared to the current situation that would be expected without any new prevention measures.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Overall, the model suggested that the most effective prevention measure would be PrEP. Even though PrEP effectiveness could be lessened by increased unsafe sex behavior, PrEP use was still more beneficial than the current situation. In the model, early diagnosis of HIV infection was also effectively decreased HIV incidence. However, early ART did not show considerable effectiveness. As expected, it would be most effective if all interventions (PrEP, early diagnosis and early treatment) were implemented together.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This model suggests that PrEP and early diagnosis could be a very effective way to reduce HIV incidence in South Korea among MSM.
authors.affiliation: Division of Infectious Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea; AIDS Research Institute, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Sun Bean
authors.initials: SB
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Myoungho
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Yoon
authors.affiliation: Division of Infectious Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea; AIDS Research Institute, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Nam Su
authors.initials: NS
authors.lastname: Ku
authors.affiliation: Division of Infectious Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea; AIDS Research Institute, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Min Hyung
authors.initials: MH
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Division of Infectious Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea; AIDS Research Institute, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Je Eun
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Song
authors.affiliation: Division of Infectious Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea; AIDS Research Institute, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Jin Young
authors.initials: JY
authors.lastname: Ahn
authors.affiliation: Division of Infectious Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea; AIDS Research Institute, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Su Jin
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Jeong
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Changsoo
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, Inha University, Incheon, South Korea.
authors.forename: Hee-Dae
authors.initials: HD
authors.lastname: Kwon
authors.affiliation: Department of Computational Science and Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Jeehyun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, United States of America; Veterans Affairs San Diego Healthcare System, San Diego, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Davey M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.affiliation: Division of Infectious Disease, Department of Internal Medicine, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea; AIDS Research Institute, Severance Hospital, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea.
authors.forename: Jun Yong
authors.initials: JY
authors.lastname: Choi
mesh_terms: D042241:Early Diagnosis; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D065129:Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D056910:Republic of Korea / Q000453:epidemiology; D047568:Unsafe Sex / Q000706:statistics & numerical data