Modeling the underlying dynamics of the spread of crime.
The spread of crime is a complex, dynamic process that calls for a systems level approach. Here, we build and analyze a series of dynamical systems models of the spread of crime, imprisonment and recidivism, using only abstract transition parameters. To find the general patterns among these parameters--patterns that are independent of the underlying particulars--we compute analytic expressions for the equilibria and for the tipping points between high-crime and low-crime equilibria in these models. We use these expressions to examine, in particular, the effects of longer prison terms and of increased incarceration rates on the prevalence of crime, with a follow-up analysis on the effects of a Three-Strike Policy.
Department of Mathematics and Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America.
David
D
McMillon
Department of Mathematics, Center for the Study of Complex Systems, and Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America.
Carl P
CP
Simon
Department of Sociology, Institute for Social Research, Population Studies Center, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America.
Jeffrey
J
Morenoff
D003415:Crime; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical