Modelling parasite aggregation: disentangling statistical and ecological approaches.
The overdispersion in macroparasite infection intensity among host populations is commonly simulated using a constant negative binomial aggregation parameter. We describe an alternative to utilising the negative binomial approach and demonstrate important disparities in intervention efficacy projections that can come about from opting for pattern-fitting models that are not process-explicit. We present model output in the context of the epidemiology and control of soil-transmitted helminths due to the significant public health burden imposed by these parasites, but our methods are applicable to other infections with demonstrable aggregation in parasite numbers among hosts.
The University of Queensland, School of Population Health, Brisbane, Qld, Australia. Electronic address: laith.yakob@uq.edu.au.
Laith
L
Yakob
The University of Queensland, School of Population Health, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.
Ricardo J
RJ
Soares Magalhães
The University of Queensland, School of Population Health, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.
Darren J
DJ
Gray
The University of Queensland, School of Population Health, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.
Gabriel
G
Milinovich
University of Southampton, Geography and Environment, Southampton, England, United Kingdom.
Nicola
N
Wardrop
The University of Queensland, School of Biomedical Sciences, St Lucia, Qld, Australia.
Rebecca
R
Dunning
The University of Queensland, School of Population Health, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.
Jan
J
Barendregt
The University of Queensland, School of Population Health, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.
Franziska
F
Bieri
The University of Queensland, School of Population Health, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.
Gail M
GM
Williams
The University of Queensland, School of Population Health, Brisbane, Qld, Australia.
Archie C A
AC
Clements
D000818:Animals; D004812:Epidemiologic Methods; D007411:Intestinal Diseases, Parasitic / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D059208:Parasite Load; D010271:Parasites / Q000254:growth & development*
Infection transmission; Intervention; MDA; Mathematical model; Scenario analysis; Soil transmitted helminths