Predictive accuracy in the neuroprediction of rearrest.
A recently published study by the present authors reported evidence that functional changes in the anterior cingulate cortex within a sample of 96 criminal offenders who were engaged in a Go/No-Go impulse control task significantly predicted their rearrest following release from prison. In an extended analysis, we use discrimination and calibration techniques to test the accuracy of these predictions relative to more traditional models and their ability to generalize to new observations in both full and reduced models. Modest to strong discrimination and calibration accuracy were found, providing additional support for the utility of neurobiological measures in predicting rearrest.
a RAND Corporation , Santa Monica , CA , USA.
Eyal
E
Aharoni
Joshua
J
Mallett
Gina M
GM
Vincent
Carla L
CL
Harenski
Vince D
VD
Calhoun
Walter
W
Sinnott-Armstrong
Michael S
MS
Gazzaniga
Kent A
KA
Kiehl
D000328:Adult; D019540:Area Under Curve; D001921:Brain / Q000502:physiology*; D002138:Calibration; D003415:Crime; D057237:Criminals; D005189:False Positive Reactions; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007175:Impulsive Behavior / Q000502:physiology*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008959:Models, Neurological; D009483:Neuropsychological Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012372:ROC Curve; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D055815:Young Adult
Anterior cingulate; Impulsivity; Prediction; Recidivism; fMRI