Marine biological shifts and climate.
Phenological, biogeographic and community shifts are among the reported responses of marine ecosystems and their species to climate change. However, despite both the profound consequences for ecosystem functioning and services, our understanding of the root causes underlying these biological changes remains rudimentary. Here, we show that a significant proportion of the responses of species and communities to climate change are deterministic at some emergent spatio-temporal scales, enabling testable predictions and more accurate projections of future changes. We propose a theory based on the concept of the ecological niche to connect phenological, biogeographic and long-term community shifts. The theory explains approximately 70% of the phenological and biogeographic shifts of a key zooplankton Calanus finmarchicus in the North Atlantic and approximately 56% of the long-term shifts in copepods observed in the North Sea during the period 1958-2009.
Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Laboratoire d'Océanologie et de Géosciences' UMR LOG CNRS 8187, Station Marine, Université Lille 1 - Sciences et Technologies BP 80, , Wimereux 62930, France, Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Science, , Citadel Hill, Plymouth PL1 2PB, UK, Université d'Artois, , ESPE, Centre de Gravelines, 40, Rue Victor Hugo, BP 129, Gravelines 59820, France, Université Lille Nord de France, , Lille, France, Marine Institute, Plymouth University, , Drake Circus, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK.
Grégory
G
Beaugrand
Eric
E
Goberville
Christophe
C
Luczak
Richard R
RR
Kirby
D063147:Animal Distribution; D000818:Animals; D058448:Biota; D057231:Climate Change; D033342:Copepoda / Q000502:physiology*; D005843:Geography; D008954:Models, Biological; D009659:North Sea; D013045:Species Specificity; D015048:Zooplankton / Q000502:physiology
climate change; marine; shifts