Early organ dysfunction affects long-term survival in acute pancreatitis patients.
BACKGROUND
The effect of early organ dysfunction on long-term survival in acute pancreatitis (AP) patients is unknown.


OBJECTIVE
The aim of this study was to ascertain whether early organ dysfunction impacts on long-term survival after an episode of AP.


METHODS
A retrospective analysis was performed using survival data sourced from a prospectively maintained database of patients with AP admitted to the Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh during a 5-year period commencing January 2000. A multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS) score of ≥ 2 during the first week of admission was used to define early organ dysfunction. After accounting for in-hospital deaths, long-term survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan-Meier test. The prognostic significance of patient characteristics was assessed by univariate and multivariate analyses using Cox's proportional hazards methods.


RESULTS
A total of 694 patients were studied (median follow-up: 8.8 years). Patients with early organ dysfunction (MODS group) were found to have died prematurely [mean survival: 10.0 years, 95% confidence interval (CI) 9.4-10.6 years] in comparison with the non-MODS group (mean survival: 11.6 years, 95% CI 11.2-11.9 years) (log-rank test, P = 0.001) after the exclusion of in-hospital deaths. Multivariate analysis confirmed MODS as an independent predictor of long-term survival [hazard ratio (HR): 1.528, 95% CI 1.72-2.176; P = 0.019] along with age (HR: 1.062; P < 0.001), alcohol-related aetiology (HR: 2.027; P = 0.001) and idiopathic aetiology (HR: 1.548; P = 0.048).


CONCLUSIONS
Early organ dysfunction in AP is an independent predictor of long-term survival even when in-hospital deaths are accounted for. Negative predictors also include age, and idiopathic and alcohol-related aetiologies.
Department of Clinical Surgery, College of Medicine and Veterinary Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Royal Infirmary of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
Christos
C
Skouras
Alastair J
AJ
Hayes
Linda
L
Williams
O James
OJ
Garden
Rowan W
RW
Parks
Damian J
DJ
Mole
D000208:Acute Disease; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D016208:Databases, Factual; D005260:Female; D006761:Hospitals; D006801:Humans; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009102:Multiple Organ Failure / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000209:etiology* / Q000401:mortality; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D010195:Pancreatitis / Q000150:complications* / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000401:mortality; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012606:Scotland; D017741:Survivors; D013997:Time Factors