The impact of the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic on economic performance in Sweden: an investigation into the consequences of an extraordinary mortality shock.
We study the impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic on short- and medium-term economic performance in Sweden. The pandemic was one of the severest and deadliest pandemics in human history, but it has hitherto received only scant attention in the economic literature--despite representing an unparalleled labour supply shock. In this paper, we exploit seemingly exogenous variation in incidence rates between Swedish regions to estimate the impact of the pandemic. The pandemic led to a significant increase in poorhouse rates. There is also evidence that capital returns were negatively affected by the pandemic. However, contrary to predictions, we find no discernible effect on earnings.
CINCH, University of Duisburg-Essen, Schützenbahn 70, 45127 Essen, Germany; University of Oslo, Norway. Electronic address: martin.karlsson@uni-due.de.
Martin
M
Karlsson
Department of Economics, Lund University, Box 7082, 220 07 Lund, Sweden; Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN), P.O. Box 55665, SE-102 15 Stockholm, Sweden. Electronic address: therese.nilsson@nek.lu.se.
Therese
T
Nilsson
ETH Zurich, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, Weinbergstrasse 35, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland. Electronic address: pichler@kof.ethz.ch.
Stefan
S
Pichler
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D019022:Almshouses / Q000266:history / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004651:Employment / Q000191:economics* / Q000266:history / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005843:Geography / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D049673:History, 20th Century; D006801:Humans; D007182:Income / Q000266:history / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D064149:Influenza Pandemic, 1918-1919 / Q000191:economics* / Q000401:mortality; D017059:Models, Econometric; D013548:Sweden / Q000453:epidemiology; D047828:World War I; D055815:Young Adult
Difference-in-differences; Health shock; Spanish flu