title: El Niño Southern Oscillation and leptospirosis outbreaks in New Caledonia.
abstract: Leptospirosis is an important cause of seasonal outbreaks in New Caledonia and the tropics. Using time series derived from high-quality laboratory-based surveillance from 2000-2012, we evaluated whether climatic factors, including El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and meteorological conditions allow for the prediction of leptospirosis outbreaks in New Caledonia. We found that La Niña periods are associated with high rainfall, and both of these factors were in turn, temporally associated with outbreaks of leptospirosis. The sea surface temperature in El Niño Box 4 allowed forecasting of leptospirosis outbreaks four months into the future, a time lag allowing public health authorities to increase preparedness. To our knowledge, our observations in New Caledonia are the first demonstration that ENSO has a strong association with leptospirosis. This association should be tested in other regions in the South Pacific, Asia or Latin America where ENSO may drive climate variability and the risk for leptospirosis outbreaks.
authors.affiliation: Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America.
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Weinberger
authors.affiliation: Institut Pasteur, Institut Pasteur International Network, Noumea, New Caledonia.
authors.forename: Noémie
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Baroux
authors.affiliation: Direction des Affaires Sanitaires et Sociales de la Nouvelle-Calédonie, Noumea, New Caledonia.
authors.forename: Jean-Paul
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Grangeon
authors.affiliation: Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America; Yale School of Medicine, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America; Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Salvador, Bahia, Brazil.
authors.forename: Albert I
authors.initials: AI
authors.lastname: Ko
authors.affiliation: Institut Pasteur, Institut Pasteur International Network, Noumea, New Caledonia.
authors.forename: Cyrille
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Goarant
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D059000:El Nino-Southern Oscillation; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007922:Leptospirosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009510:New Caledonia / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult
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