title: Comparative analysis of insect succession data from Victoria (Australia) using summary statistics versus preceding mean ambient temperature models.
abstract: Minimum postmortem interval (mPMI) can be estimated with preceding mean ambient temperature models that predict carrion taxon pre-appearance interval. But accuracy has not been compared with using summary statistics (mean ± SD of taxon arrival/departure day, range, 95% CI). This study collected succession data from ten experimental and five control (infrequently sampled) pig carcasses over two summers (n = 2 experimental, n = 1 control per placement date). Linear and exponential preceding mean ambient temperature models for appearance and departure times were constructed for 17 taxa/developmental stages. There was minimal difference in linear or exponential model success, although arrival models were more often significant: 65% of linear arrival (r2 = 0.09–0.79) and exponential arrival models (r2 = 0.05–81.0) were significant, and 35% of linear departure (r2 = 0.0–0.71) and exponential departure models (r2 = 0.0–0.72) were significant. Performance of models and summary statistics for estimating mPMI was compared in two forensic cases. Only summary statistics produced accurate mPMI estimates.
authors.forename: Mel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Archer
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001315:Australia; D001517:Coleoptera / Q000502:physiology; D004175:Diptera / Q000502:physiology; D005247:Feeding Behavior / Q000502:physiology*; D005260:Female; D049429:Forensic Pathology; D006801:Humans; D006927:Hymenoptera / Q000502:physiology; D007814:Larva; D016014:Linear Models; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011180:Postmortem Changes; D013552:Swine; D013696:Temperature