title: Air travel is associated with intracontinental spread of dengue virus serotypes 1-3 in Brazil.
abstract: Dengue virus and its four serotypes (DENV-1 to DENV-4) infect 390 million people and are implicated in at least 25,000 deaths annually, with the largest disease burden in tropical and subtropical regions. We investigated the spatial dynamics of DENV-1, DENV-2 and DENV-3 in Brazil by applying a statistical framework to complete genome sequences. For all three serotypes, we estimated that the introduction of new lineages occurred within 7 to 10-year intervals. New lineages were most likely to be imported from the Caribbean region to the North and Northeast regions of Brazil, and then to disperse at a rate of approximately 0.5 km/day. Joint statistical analysis of evolutionary, epidemiological and ecological data indicates that aerial transportation of humans and/or vector mosquitoes, rather than Aedes aegypti infestation rates or geographical distances, determine dengue virus spread in Brazil.
authors.affiliation: Centro de Inovação Tecnológica, Instituto Evandro Chagas, Ananindeua, Brazil.
authors.forename: Marcio R T
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Nunes
authors.affiliation: Center for Genomic Sciences, United States Army Medical Research Institute for Infectious Diseases, Frederick, Maryland, United States of America; Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America.
authors.forename: Gustavo
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Palacios
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Nuno Rodrigues
authors.initials: NR
authors.lastname: Faria
authors.affiliation: Centro de Inovação Tecnológica, Instituto Evandro Chagas, Ananindeua, Brazil.
authors.forename: Edivaldo Costa
authors.initials: EC
authors.lastname: Sousa
authors.affiliation: Centro de Inovação Tecnológica, Instituto Evandro Chagas, Ananindeua, Brazil.
authors.forename: Jamilla A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Pantoja
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Arbovirologia e Febres Hemorrágicas, Instituto Evandro Chagas, Ananindeua, Brazil.
authors.forename: Sueli G
authors.initials: SG
authors.lastname: Rodrigues
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Arbovirologia e Febres Hemorrágicas, Instituto Evandro Chagas, Ananindeua, Brazil.
authors.forename: Valéria L
authors.initials: VL
authors.lastname: Carvalho
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Arbovirologia e Febres Hemorrágicas, Instituto Evandro Chagas, Ananindeua, Brazil.
authors.forename: Daniele B A
authors.initials: DB
authors.lastname: Medeiros
authors.affiliation: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America.
authors.forename: Nazir
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Savji
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Guy
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Baele
authors.affiliation: Department of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California - Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America; Department of Human Genetics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California - Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America; Department of Biostatistics, UCLA Fielding School of Public Health, University of California - Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Marc A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Suchard
authors.affiliation: Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Philippe
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Lemey
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Arbovirologia e Febres Hemorrágicas, Instituto Evandro Chagas, Ananindeua, Brazil; Universidade do Estado do Pará, Belém, Pará, Brazil.
authors.forename: Pedro F C
authors.initials: PF
authors.lastname: Vasconcelos
authors.affiliation: Center for Infection and Immunity, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America.
authors.forename: W Ian
authors.initials: WI
authors.lastname: Lipkin
mesh_terms: D064870:Air Travel; D000818:Animals; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D003716:Dengue Virus / Q000145:classification / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D006801:Humans
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