title: Effect of climate change on soil temperature in Swedish boreal forests.
abstract: Complex non-linear relationships exist between air and soil temperature responses to climate change. Despite its influence on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, soil temperature has received less attention in climate impact studies. Here we present and apply an empirical soil temperature model to four forest sites along a climatic gradient of Sweden. Future air and soil temperature were projected using an ensemble of regional climate models. Annual average air and soil temperatures were projected to increase, but complex dynamics were projected on a seasonal scale. Future changes in winter soil temperature were strongly dependent on projected snow cover. At the northernmost site, winter soil temperatures changed very little due to insulating effects of snow cover but southern sites with little or no snow cover showed the largest projected winter soil warming. Projected soil warming was greatest in the spring (up to 4°C) in the north, suggesting earlier snowmelt, extension of growing season length and possible northward shifts in the boreal biome. This showed that the projected effects of climate change on soil temperature in snow dominated regions are complex and general assumptions of future soil temperature responses to climate change based on air temperature alone are inadequate and should be avoided in boreal regions.
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
authors.forename: Gunnar
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Jungqvist
authors.affiliation: Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden.
authors.forename: Stephen K
authors.initials: SK
authors.lastname: Oni
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden.
authors.forename: Claudia
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Teutschbein
authors.affiliation: Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden.
authors.forename: Martyn N
authors.initials: MN
authors.lastname: Futter
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D065928:Forests; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012987:Soil; D013548:Sweden; D013696:Temperature
chemical_list: D012987:Soil
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