title: Spatial variability in HIV prevalence declines in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa.
abstract: Evidence suggests substantial declines in HIV prevalence in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. However, the observed aggregate declines at the national level may obscure local variations in the temporal dynamics of the infection. Using spatial scan statistics, we identified marked spatial variability in the within-country declines in HIV prevalence in Tanzania, Malawi, Kenya, and Zimbabwe. Our study suggests that the declines in the national HIV prevalence in some of the SSA countries may not be representative of downward trends in prevalence in areas of high HIV prevalence, as much as the result of sharp declines in prevalence in areas of already low HIV prevalence. Our findings provide insights for resource allocation and HIV prevention interventions in these countries.
authors.affiliation: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha, Qatar. Electronic address: dfc2002@qatar-med.cornell.edu.
authors.forename: Diego F
authors.initials: DF
authors.lastname: Cuadros
authors.affiliation: Infectious Disease Epidemiology Group, Weill Cornell Medical College-Qatar, Cornell University, Qatar Foundation-Education City, Doha, Qatar; Department of Healthcare Policy and Research, Weill Cornell Medical College, Cornell University, New York, New York; Vaccine and Infectious Disease Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, WA, USA.
authors.forename: Laith J
authors.initials: LJ
authors.lastname: Abu-Raddad
mesh_terms: D017954:Africa South of the Sahara / Q000453:epidemiology; D016000:Cluster Analysis; D040362:Geographic Information Systems; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006306:Health Surveys; D006801:Humans; D015995:Prevalence; D012424:Rural Population; D062211:Spatio-Temporal Analysis
keywords: Geographic mapping; HIV; Spatio-temporal analysis; Sub-Saharan Africa