title: On the fate of pumice rafts formed during the 2012 Havre submarine eruption.
abstract: Pumice rafts are floating mobile accumulations of low-density pumice clasts generated by silicic volcanic eruptions. Pumice in rafts can drift for years, become waterlogged and sink, or become stranded on shorelines. Here we show that the pumice raft formed by the impressive, deep submarine eruption of the Havre caldera volcano (Southwest Pacific) in July 2012 can be mapped by satellite imagery augmented by sailing crew observations. Far from coastal interference, the eruption produced a single >400 km(2) raft in 1 day, thus initiating a gigantic, high-precision, natural experiment relevant to both modern and prehistoric oceanic surface dispersal dynamics. Observed raft dispersal can be accurately reproduced by simulating drift and dispersal patterns using currents from an eddy-resolving ocean model hindcast. For future eruptions that produce potentially hazardous pumice rafts, our technique allows real-time forecasts of dispersal routes, in addition to inference of ash/pumice deposit distribution in the deep ocean.
authors.affiliation: 1] National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK [2] Department of Geology, University of Otago, PO Box 56, Dunedin 9056, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Jutzeler
authors.affiliation: Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Marsh
authors.affiliation: CODES-ARC Centre of Excellence in Ore Deposits, University of Tasmania, PO Box 79, Hobart 7005, Australia.
authors.forename: Rebecca J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Carey
authors.affiliation: Department of Geology, University of Otago, PO Box 56, Dunedin 9056, New Zealand.
authors.forename: James D L
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: White
authors.affiliation: National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK.
authors.forename: Peter J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Talling
authors.affiliation: Department of Geophysics, Stanford University, 397 Panama Mall, Stanford California 94305, USA.
authors.forename: Leif
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Karlstrom
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