title: Timescales for detecting a significant acceleration in sea level rise.
abstract: There is observational evidence that global sea level is rising and there is concern that the rate of rise will increase, significantly threatening coastal communities. However, considerable debate remains as to whether the rate of sea level rise is currently increasing and, if so, by how much. Here we provide new insights into sea level accelerations by applying the main methods that have been used previously to search for accelerations in historical data, to identify the timings (with uncertainties) at which accelerations might first be recognized in a statistically significant manner (if not apparent already) in sea level records that we have artificially extended to 2100. We find that the most important approach to earliest possible detection of a significant sea level acceleration lies in improved understanding (and subsequent removal) of interannual to multidecadal variability in sea level records.
authors.affiliation: 1] Ocean and Earth Sciences, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK [2] School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering and the UWA Oceans Institute, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.
authors.forename: Ivan D
authors.initials: ID
authors.lastname: Haigh
authors.affiliation: 1] Research Centre Siegen, University of Siegen, Hagener Street 139, 57072 Siegen, Germany [2] College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, 140 7th Avenue South, St. Petersburg, Florida 33701, USA.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Wahl
authors.affiliation: 1] Ocean and Earth Sciences, National Oceanography Centre, University of Southampton, European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK [2] Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra 0200, Australia.
authors.forename: Eelco J
authors.initials: EJ
authors.lastname: Rohling
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth and Environment and SERC, Florida International University, 11200 SW 8th Street, OE-148, Miami, Florida 33199, USA.
authors.forename: René M
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Price
authors.affiliation: School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering and the UWA Oceans Institute, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, Western Australia 6009, Australia.
authors.forename: Charitha B
authors.initials: CB
authors.lastname: Pattiaratchi
authors.affiliation: National Oceanography Centre, Waterfront Campus, European Way, Southampton SO14 3ZH, UK.
authors.forename: Francisco M
authors.initials: FM
authors.lastname: Calafat
authors.affiliation: Research Institute for Water and Environment, University of Siegen, Paul-Bonatz-Street 9-11, 57076 Siegen, Germany.
authors.forename: Sönke
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Dangendorf
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