title: Insights into persistence mechanisms of a zoonotic virus in bat colonies using a multispecies metapopulation model.
abstract: Rabies is a worldwide zoonosis resulting from Lyssavirus infection. In Europe, Eptesicus serotinus is the most frequently reported bat species infected with Lyssavirus, and thus considered to be the reservoir of European bat Lyssavirus type 1 (EBLV-1). To date, the role of other bat species in EBLV-1 epidemiology and persistence remains unknown. Here, we built an EBLV-1-transmission model based on local observations of a three-cave and four-bat species (Myotis capaccinii, Myotis myotis, Miniopterus schreibersii, Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) system in the Balearic Islands, for which a 1995-2011 serological dataset indicated the continuous presence of EBLV-1. Eptesicus serotinus was never observed in the system during the 16-year follow-up and therefore was not included in the model. We used the model to explore virus persistence mechanisms and to assess the importance of each bat species in the transmission dynamics. We found that EBLV-1 could not be sustained if transmission between M. schreibersii and other bat species was eliminated, suggesting that this species serves as a regional reservoir. Global sensitivity analysis using Sobol's method revealed that following the rate of autumn-winter infectious contacts, M. schreibersii's incubation- and immune-period durations, but not the infectious period length, were the most relevant factors driving virus persistence.
authors.affiliation: Institut Pasteur, Unité de Pharmaco-épidémiologie et Maladies Infectieuses, Paris, France; INSERM, U657, Paris, France; Univ. Versailles-Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, EA 4499, Faculté de Médecine Paris Île-de-France Ouest, Garches, France.
authors.forename: Margarita
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Pons-Salort
authors.affiliation: Centre de Recerca en Infeccions Víriques de les Illes Balears, Palma de Mallorca, Spain; Institut de Recerca de la Biodiversitat, Departament de Biologia Animal, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Jordi
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Serra-Cobo
authors.affiliation: Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Flora
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Jay
authors.affiliation: Centre de Recerca en Infeccions Víriques de les Illes Balears, Palma de Mallorca, Spain.
authors.forename: Marc
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: López-Roig
authors.affiliation: Institut Pasteur, Unité Dynamique des Lyssavirus et Adaptation à l'Hôte, National Reference Centre for Rabies, WHO Collaborative Centre for Reference and Research on Rabies, Paris, France.
authors.forename: Rachel
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Lavenir
authors.affiliation: Institut Pasteur, Unité de Pharmaco-épidémiologie et Maladies Infectieuses, Paris, France; INSERM, U657, Paris, France; Univ. Versailles-Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, EA 4499, Faculté de Médecine Paris Île-de-France Ouest, Garches, France; AP-HP, Hôpital Raymond-Poincaré, Garches, France.
authors.forename: Didier
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Guillemot
authors.affiliation: École Centrale Paris, Laboratoire de Mathématiques Appliquées aux Systèmes, Châtenay-Malabry, France.
authors.forename: Véronique
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Letort
authors.affiliation: Institut Pasteur, Unité Dynamique des Lyssavirus et Adaptation à l'Hôte, National Reference Centre for Rabies, WHO Collaborative Centre for Reference and Research on Rabies, Paris, France.
authors.forename: Hervé
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Bourhy
authors.affiliation: Institut Pasteur, Unité de Pharmaco-épidémiologie et Maladies Infectieuses, Paris, France; INSERM, U657, Paris, France; Univ. Versailles-Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, EA 4499, Faculté de Médecine Paris Île-de-France Ouest, Garches, France.
authors.forename: Lulla
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Opatowski
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D000818:Animals; D002685:Chiroptera / Q000821:virology*; D015981:Epidemiologic Factors; D005260:Female; D018114:Lyssavirus / Q000145:classification / Q000235:genetics; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011818:Rabies / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology*; D018353:Rhabdoviridae Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D016036:Seroepidemiologic Studies; D013030:Spain; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology*
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