title: Research on the food security condition and food supply capacity of Egypt.
abstract: Food security is chronically guaranteed in Egypt because of the food subsidy policy of the country. However, the increasing Egyptian population is straining the food supply. To study changes in Egyptian food security and future food supply capacity, we analysed the historical grain production, yield per unit, grain-cultivated area, and per capita grain possession of Egypt. The GM (1,1) model of the grey system was used to predict the future population. Thereafter, the result was combined with scenario analysis to forecast the grain possession and population carrying capacity of Egypt under different scenarios. Results show that the increasing population and limitations in cultivated land will strain Egyptian food security. Only in high cultivated areas and high grain yield scenarios before 2020, or in high cultivated areas and mid grain yield scenarios before 2015, can food supply be basically satisfied (assurance rate ≥ 80%) under a standard of 400 kg per capita. Population carrying capacity in 2030 is between 51.45 and 89.35 million. Thus, we propose the use of advanced technologies in agriculture and the adjustment of plant structure and cropping systems to improve land utilization efficiency. Furthermore, urbanization and other uses of cultivated land should be strictly controlled to ensure the planting of grains.
authors.affiliation: College of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, P.O. Box 95, Shaanxi 712100, China ; The Research Center of Recycle Agricultural Engineering and Technology of Shaanxi Province, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China.
authors.forename: Jian
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-0841-7084
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Deng
authors.affiliation: College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China.
authors.forename: Youzhen
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Xiang
authors.affiliation: College of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, P.O. Box 95, Shaanxi 712100, China ; The Research Center of Recycle Agricultural Engineering and Technology of Shaanxi Province, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China.
authors.forename: Wenhui
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Hao
authors.affiliation: College of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, P.O. Box 95, Shaanxi 712100, China ; The Research Center of Recycle Agricultural Engineering and Technology of Shaanxi Province, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China.
authors.forename: Yongzhong
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Feng
authors.affiliation: College of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, P.O. Box 95, Shaanxi 712100, China ; The Research Center of Recycle Agricultural Engineering and Technology of Shaanxi Province, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China.
authors.forename: Gaihe
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: College of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, P.O. Box 95, Shaanxi 712100, China ; The Research Center of Recycle Agricultural Engineering and Technology of Shaanxi Province, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China.
authors.forename: Guangxin
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Ren
authors.affiliation: College of Agronomy, Northwest A&F University, P.O. Box 95, Shaanxi 712100, China ; The Research Center of Recycle Agricultural Engineering and Technology of Shaanxi Province, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China.
authors.forename: Xinhui
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Han
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D002523:Edible Grain / Q000254:growth & development*; D004534:Egypt; D005502:Food; D019649:Food Industry / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005523:Food Supply / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011158:Population Growth; D012637:Security Measures / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
references.citation: Science. 2010 Feb 12;327(5967):812-8
references.pmid: 20110467