title: Biomarker-based calibration of retrospective exposure predictions of perfluorooctanoic acid.
abstract: Estimated historical exposures and serum concentrations of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) have been extensively used in epidemiologic studies that examined associations between PFOA exposures and adverse health outcomes among residents in highly exposed areas in the Mid-Ohio Valley. Using measured serum PFOA levels in 2005-2006, we applied two calibration methods to these retrospective exposure predictions: (1) multiplicative calibration and (2) Bayesian pharmacokinetic calibration with larger adjustments to more recent exposure estimates and smaller adjustments to exposure estimates for years farther in the past. We conducted simulation studies of various hypothetical exposure scenarios and compared hypothetical true historical intake rates with estimates based on mis-specified baseline exposure and pharmacokinetic models to find the method with the least bias. The Bayesian method outperformed the multiplicative method if a change to bottled water consumption was not reported or if the half-life of PFOA was mis-specified. On the other hand, the multiplicative method outperformed the Bayesian method if actual tap water consumption rates were systematically overestimated. If tap water consumption rates gradually decreased over time because of substitution with bottled water or other liquids, neither method clearly outperformed another. Calibration of retrospective exposure estimates using recently collected biomarkers may help reduce uncertainties in environmental epidemiologic studies.
authors.affiliation: School of Social Ecology, University of California , Irvine, California 92697, United States.
authors.forename: Hyeong-Moo
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Shin
authors.forename: Kyle
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Steenland
authors.forename: P Barry
authors.initials: PB
authors.lastname: Ryan
authors.forename: Verónica M
authors.initials: VM
authors.lastname: Vieira
authors.forename: Scott M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Bartell
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood*; D002138:Calibration; D002210:Caprylates / Q000097:blood*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000032:analysis*; D016021:Epidemiologic Studies; D005260:Female; D005466:Fluorocarbons / Q000097:blood*; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009820:Ohio; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000097:blood
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers; D002210:Caprylates; D005466:Fluorocarbons; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical; C023036:perfluorooctanoic acid
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