title: Stability of the associations between early life risk indicators and adolescent overweight over the evolving obesity epidemic.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Pre- and perinatal factors and preschool body size may help identify children developing overweight, but these factors might have changed during the development of the obesity epidemic.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  We aimed to assess the associations between early life risk indicators and overweight at the age of 9 and 15 years at different stages of the obesity epidemic.
  
  
  METHODS
  We used two population-based Northern Finland Birth Cohorts including 4111 children born in 1966 (NFBC1966) and 5414 children born in 1985-1986 (NFBC1986). In both cohorts, we used the same a priori defined prenatal factors, maternal body mass index (BMI), birth weight, infant weight (age 5 months and 1 year), and preschool BMI (age 2-5 years). We used internal references in early childhood to define percentiles of body size (<50, 50-75, 75-90 and >90) and generalized linear models to study the association with overweight, according to the International Obesity Taskforce (IOTF) definitions, at the ages of 9 and 15 years.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The prevalence of overweight at the age of 15 was 9% for children born in 1966 and 16% for children born in 1986. However, medians of infant weight and preschool BMI changed little between the cohorts, and we found similar associations between maternal BMI, infant weight, preschool BMI, and later overweight in the two cohorts. At 5 years, children above the 90th percentile had approximately a 12 times higher risk of being overweight at the age of 15 years compared to children below the 50th percentile in both cohorts.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The associations between early body size and adolescent overweight showed remarkable stability, despite the increase in prevalence of overweight over the 20 years between the cohorts. Using consequently defined internal percentiles may be a valuable tool in clinical practice.
authors.affiliation: Section for General Medical Practice, Department of Public Health, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
authors.forename: Lise
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Graversen
authors.affiliation: Institute of Preventive Medicine, Bispebjerg and Frederiksberg University Hospital, The Capital Region, Copenhagen, Denmark; Novo Nordisk Foundation Center for Basic Metabolic Research, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark.
authors.forename: Thorkild I A
authors.initials: TI
authors.lastname: Sørensen
authors.affiliation: National Centre for Register-Based Research, Faculty of Social Sciences, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
authors.forename: Liselotte
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Petersen
authors.affiliation: Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Ulla
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Sovio
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom; Institute of Health Sciences, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Biocenter Oulu, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland.
authors.forename: Marika
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kaakinen
authors.affiliation: Section for General Medical Practice, Department of Public Health, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
authors.forename: Annelli
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Sandbæk
authors.affiliation: Finnish Institute of Occupational Health, Oulu, Finland.
authors.forename: Jaana
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Laitinen
authors.affiliation: Institute of Health Sciences, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Primary Health Care Unit, University Hospital of Oulu, Oulu, Finland.
authors.forename: Anja
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Taanila
authors.affiliation: National Institute of Health and Welfare, Oulu, Finland; Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Oulu and Oulu University Hospital, Oulu, Finland.
authors.forename: Anneli
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Pouta
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom; Institute of Health Sciences, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Biocenter Oulu, University of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; Primary Health Care Unit, University Hospital of Oulu, Oulu, Finland; National Institute of Health and Welfare, Oulu, Finland.
authors.forename: Marjo-Riitta
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Järvelin
authors.affiliation: Section for General Medical Practice, Department of Public Health, Aarhus University, Aarhus, Denmark.
authors.forename: Carsten
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Obel
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D005387:Finland / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D009765:Obesity / Q000453:epidemiology*; D050177:Overweight / Q000503:physiopathology*; D012307:Risk Factors
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