title: Drivers of extinction risk in African mammals: the interplay of distribution state, human pressure, conservation response and species biology.
abstract: Although conservation intervention has reversed the decline of some species, our success is outweighed by a much larger number of species moving towards extinction. Extinction risk modelling can identify correlates of risk and species not yet recognized to be threatened. Here, we use machine learning models to identify correlates of extinction risk in African terrestrial mammals using a set of variables belonging to four classes: species distribution state, human pressures, conservation response and species biology. We derived information on distribution state and human pressure from satellite-borne imagery. Variables in all four classes were identified as important predictors of extinction risk, and interactions were observed among variables in different classes (e.g. level of protection, human threats, species distribution ranges). Species biology had a key role in mediating the effect of external variables. The model was 90% accurate in classifying extinction risk status of species, but in a few cases the observed and modelled extinction risk mismatched. Species in this condition might suffer from an incorrect classification of extinction risk (hence require reassessment). An increased availability of satellite imagery combined with improved resolution and classification accuracy of the resulting maps will play a progressively greater role in conservation monitoring.
authors.affiliation: Global Mammal Assessment Program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, , Viale dell' Università 32, 00185 Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Moreno
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Di Marco
authors.forename: Graeme M
authors.initials: GM
authors.lastname: Buchanan
authors.forename: Zoltan
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Szantoi
authors.forename: Milena
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Holmgren
authors.forename: Gabriele
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Grottolo Marasini
authors.forename: Dorit
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Gross
authors.forename: Sandra
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Tranquilli
authors.forename: Luigi
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Boitani
authors.forename: Carlo
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Rondinini
mesh_terms: D000349:Africa; D000818:Animals; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods; D017753:Ecosystem; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D006801:Humans; D008322:Mammals / Q000254:growth & development*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D063809:Satellite Imagery / Q000379:methods*
keywords: biodiversity, conservation actions; habitat loss; life history; random forest model; threats
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