title: Estimating the sizes of populations at high risk for HIV: a comparison study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Behavioral interventions are effective strategies for HIV/AIDS prevention and control. However, implementation of such strategies relies heavily on the accurate estimation of the high-risk population size. The multiplier method and generalized network scale-up method were recommended to estimate the population size of those at high risk for HIV by UNAIDS/WHO in 2003 and 2010, respectively. This study aims to assess and compare the two methods for estimating the size of populations at high risk for HIV, and to provide practical guidelines and suggestions for implementing the two methods.
  
  
  METHODS
  Studies of the multiplier method used to estimate the population prevalence of men who have sex with men in China published between July 1, 2003 and July 1, 2013 were reviewed. The generalized network scale-up method was applied to estimate the population prevalence of men who have sex with men in the urban district of Taiyuan, China.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The median of studies using the multiplier method to estimate the population prevalence of men who have sex with men in China was 4-8 times lower than the national level estimate. Meanwhile, the estimate of the generalized network scale-up method fell within the range of national level estimate.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  When high-quality existing data are not readily available, the multiplier method frequently yields underestimated results. We thus suggest that the generalized network scale-up method is preferred when sampling frames for the general population and accurate demographic information are available.
authors.affiliation: Department of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China.
authors.forename: Liwei
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Jing
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China.
authors.forename: Chengyi
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Qu
authors.affiliation: Department of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China.
authors.forename: Hongmei
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Yu
authors.affiliation: Department of Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, China.
authors.forename: Tong
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics & Probability, Michigan State University, East Lansing, United States.
authors.forename: Yuehua
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Cui
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D011159:Population Surveillance; D015995:Prevalence; D012307:Risk Factors; D055815:Young Adult
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