title: Population dynamics of the critically endangered golden lancehead pitviper, Bothrops insularis: stability or decline?
abstract: Little is known about vital rates of snakes generally because of the difficulty in collecting data. Here we used a robust design mark-recapture model to estimate survival, behavioral effects on capture probability, temporary emigration, abundance and test the hypothesis of population decline in the golden lancehead pitviper, Bothrops insularis, an endemic and critically endangered species from southeastern Brazil. We collected data at irregular intervals over ten occasions from 2002 to 2010. Survival was slightly higher in the wet season than in the dry season. Temporal emigration was high, indicating the importance of accounting for this parameter both in the sampling design and modeling. No behavioral effects were detected on capture probability. We detected an average annual population decrease (λ = 0.93, CI = 0.47-1.38) during the study period, but estimates included high uncertainty, and caution in interpretation is needed. We discuss the potential effects of the illegal removal of individuals and the implications of the vital rates obtained for the future persistence and conservation of this endemic, endangered species.
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Biologia Animal, Instituto de Biologia, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil.
authors.forename: Murilo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Guimarães
authors.affiliation: FES-Iztacala, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, D.F., Facultad de Estudios Superiores Iztacala, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Tlalnepantla, Estado de México, México.
authors.forename: Roberto
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Munguía-Steyer
authors.affiliation: Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America.
authors.forename: Paul F
authors.initials: PF
authors.lastname: Doherty
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Ecologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
authors.forename: Marcio
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Martins
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de São Paulo, Diadema, São Paulo, Brazil.
authors.forename: Ricardo J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Sawaya
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D017837:Bothrops / Q000254:growth & development*; D001938:Brazil; D056727:Endangered Species; D005260:Female; D008297:Male; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011336:Probability; D016019:Survival Analysis; D013696:Temperature
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