title: Marine ice regulates the future stability of a large Antarctic ice shelf.
abstract: The collapses of the Larsen A and B ice shelves on the Antarctic Peninsula in 1995 and 2002 confirm the impact of southward-propagating climate warming in this region. Recent mass and dynamic changes of Larsen B's southern neighbour Larsen C, the fourth largest ice shelf in Antarctica, may herald a similar instability. Here, using a validated ice-shelf model run in diagnostic mode, constrained by satellite and in situ geophysical data, we identify the nature of this potential instability. We demonstrate that the present-day spatial distribution and orientation of the principal stresses within Larsen C ice shelf are akin to those within pre-collapse Larsen B. When Larsen B's stabilizing frontal portion was lost in 1995, the unstable remaining shelf accelerated, crumbled and ultimately collapsed. We hypothesize that Larsen C ice shelf may suffer a similar fate if it were not stabilized by warm and mechanically soft marine ice, entrained within narrow suture zones.
authors.affiliation: Glaciology Group, College of Science, Swansea University, Singleton Park, Swansea SA2 8PP, UK.
authors.forename: Bernd
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Kulessa
authors.affiliation: 1] Glaciology Group, College of Science, Swansea University, Singleton Park, Swansea SA2 8PP, UK [2].
authors.forename: Daniela
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Jansen
authors.affiliation: Glaciology Group, College of Science, Swansea University, Singleton Park, Swansea SA2 8PP, UK.
authors.forename: Adrian J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Luckman
authors.affiliation: British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
authors.forename: Edward C
authors.initials: EC
authors.lastname: King
authors.affiliation: Rock and Ice Physics Laboratory and Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling, Department of Earth Sciences, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK.
authors.forename: Peter R
authors.initials: PR
authors.lastname: Sammonds
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