title: Using CV-GLUE procedure in analysis of wetland model predictive uncertainty.
abstract: This study develops a procedure that is related to Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE), called the CV-GLUE procedure, for assessing the predictive uncertainty that is associated with different model structures with varying degrees of complexity. The proposed procedure comprises model calibration, validation, and predictive uncertainty estimation in terms of a characteristic coefficient of variation (characteristic CV). The procedure first performed two-stage Monte-Carlo simulations to ensure predictive accuracy by obtaining behavior parameter sets, and then the estimation of CV-values of the model outcomes, which represent the predictive uncertainties for a model structure of interest with its associated behavior parameter sets. Three commonly used wetland models (the first-order K-C model, the plug flow with dispersion model, and the Wetland Water Quality Model; WWQM) were compared based on data that were collected from a free water surface constructed wetland with paddy cultivation in Taipei, Taiwan. The results show that the first-order K-C model, which is simpler than the other two models, has greater predictive uncertainty. This finding shows that predictive uncertainty does not necessarily increase with the complexity of the model structure because in this case, the more simplistic representation (first-order K-C model) of reality results in a higher uncertainty in the prediction made by the model. The CV-GLUE procedure is suggested to be a useful tool not only for designing constructed wetlands but also for other aspects of environmental management.
authors.affiliation: Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan, ROC.
authors.forename: Chun-Wei
authors.initials: CW
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan, ROC. Electronic address: yplin@ntu.edu.tw.
authors.forename: Yu-Pin
authors.initials: YP
authors.lastname: Lin
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil and Disaster Prevention Engineering, National United University, Miaoli 36003, Taiwan, ROC.
authors.forename: Li-Chi
authors.initials: LC
authors.lastname: Chiang
authors.affiliation: Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan, ROC.
authors.forename: Yung-Chieh
authors.initials: YC
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D013624:Taiwan; D035501:Uncertainty; D060753:Water Quality; D053833:Wetlands
keywords: Characteristic CV; Constructed wetland; GLUE; Paddy; Predictive uncertainty; Uncertainty analysis