title: Generating a dynamic synthetic population--using an age-structured two-sex model for household dynamics.
abstract: Generating a reliable computer-simulated synthetic population is necessary for knowledge processing and decision-making analysis in agent-based systems in order to measure, interpret and describe each target area and the human activity patterns within it. In this paper, both synthetic reconstruction (SR) and combinatorial optimisation (CO) techniques are discussed for generating a reliable synthetic population for a certain geographic region (in Australia) using aggregated- and disaggregated-level information available for such an area. A CO algorithm using the quadratic function of population estimators is presented in this paper in order to generate a synthetic population while considering a two-fold nested structure for the individuals and households within the target areas. The baseline population in this study is generated from the confidentialised unit record files (CURFs) and 2006 Australian census tables. The dynamics of the created population is then projected over five years using a dynamic micro-simulation model for individual- and household-level demographic transitions. This projection is then compared with the 2011 Australian census. A prediction interval is provided for the population estimates obtained by the bootstrapping method, by which the variability structure of a predictor can be replicated in a bootstrap distribution.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Namazi-Rad
authors.affiliation: SMART Infrastructure Facility, University of Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia; National Institute for Applied Statistics Research Australia, University of Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia.
authors.forename: Mohammad-Reza
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Namazi-Rad
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Mokhtarian
authors.affiliation: National Institute for Applied Statistics Research Australia, University of Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia.
authors.forename: Payam
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Mokhtarian
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Perez
authors.affiliation: SMART Infrastructure Facility, University of Wollongong, New South Wales, Australia.
authors.forename: Pascal
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Perez
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D001315:Australia; D019352:Censuses; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003710:Demography / Q000379:methods*; D004243:Divorce; D005191:Family Characteristics; D005260:Female; D005843:Geography; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008393:Marriage; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011153:Population; D011157:Population Dynamics
references.citation: Biometrika. 1968 Mar;55(1):179-88
references.pmid: 5661043
references.citation: Soc Secur Bull. 2000;63(3):3-12
references.pmid: 11439704
references.citation: Demography. 1986 May;23(2):247-59
references.pmid: 3709898
references.citation: Epidemics. 2011 Sep;3(3-4):152-8
references.pmid: 22094338
references.citation: Demography. 1983 Feb;20(1):61-78
references.pmid: 6339283
references.citation: Acta Appl Math. 1989;14(1-2):91-102
references.pmid: 12282880
references.citation: Environ Plan A. 1998 May;30(5):785-816
references.pmid: 12293871
references.citation: PLoS One. 2010 Jan 22;5(1):e8828
references.pmid: 20107505
references.citation: Annu Rev Sociol. 1988;14:341-61
references.pmid: 12315442
references.citation: J Math Biol. 1979 Dec;8(4):325-43
references.pmid: 541576
references.citation: Health Rep. 2013 Oct;24(10):11-9
references.pmid: 24259125
references.citation: Biometrika. 1945 Nov;33:183-212
references.pmid: 21006835
references.citation: Nature. 2003 Jan 30;421(6922):530-3
references.pmid: 12540852