Rapidly rising incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in Chinese population: epidemiology in Shanghai during 1997-2011.
The aim of this study was to investigate incidence trend of childhood type 1 diabetes in Shanghai, a megalopolis in east China. We established a population-based retrospective registry for the disease in the city's registered population during 1997-2011 and collected 622 incident type 1 diabetes in children aged 0-14 years. Standardized incidence rates and 95 % CI were estimated by applying the capture-recapture method and assuming Poisson distribution. Incidence trend was analyzed using the Poisson regression model. The mean annual incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes was 3.1 per 100,000 person-years. We did not observe significant difference in incidence between boys and girls. The incidence is unstable and had a mean annual increase 14.2 % per year during the studied period. A faster annual increase was observed in boys, warmer seasons, and in the outer regions of the city. If present trends continue, the number of new type 1 diabetes cases will double from 2016 to 2020, and prevalent cases will sextuple by 2025. Our results showed the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes was rising rapidly in Shanghai. More studies are needed to analyze incidence changes in other regions of China for appropriate allocation of healthcare resources.
Department of Pediatric Endocrinology and Inherited Metabolic Disease, Children's Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Zhuhui
Z
Zhao
Chengjun
C
Sun
Chunfang
C
Wang
Pin
P
Li
Wei
W
Wang
Jun
J
Ye
Xuefan
X
Gu
Xiaodong
X
Wang
Shuixian
S
Shen
Dijing
D
Zhi
Zhong
Z
Lu
Rong
R
Ye
Ruoqian
R
Cheng
Li
L
Xi
Xiaojing
X
Li
Zhangqian
Z
Zheng
Miaoying
M
Zhang
Feihong
F
Luo
D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D003922:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 1 / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D012042:Registries