A quantitative risk assessment model for Vibrio parahaemolyticus in raw oysters in Sao Paulo State, Brazil.
A risk assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus associated with raw oysters produced and consumed in São Paulo State was developed. The model was built according to the United States Food and Drug Administration framework for risk assessment. The outcome of the exposure assessment estimated the prevalence and density of pathogenic V. parahaemolyticus in raw oysters from harvest to consumption. The result of the exposure step was combined with a Beta-Poisson dose-response model to estimate the probability of illness. The model predicted that the average risks per serving of raw oysters were 4.7×10(-4), 6.0×10(-4), 4.7×10(-4) and 3.1×10(-4) for spring, summer, fall and winter, respectively. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the most influential variables on the risk of illness were the total density of V. parahaemolyticus at harvest, transport temperature, relative prevalence of pathogenic strains and storage time at retail. Only storage time under refrigeration at retail showed negative correlation with the risk of illness.
Department of Food and Experimental Nutrition, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil; University of São Paulo - NAPAN - Food and Nutrition Research Center, Brazil. Electronic address: psobrinho@ufvjm.edu.br.
Paulo de S Costa
Pde S
Sobrinho
Department of Food and Experimental Nutrition, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil; University of São Paulo - NAPAN - Food and Nutrition Research Center, Brazil.
Maria T
MT
Destro
Department of Food and Experimental Nutrition, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil; University of São Paulo - NAPAN - Food and Nutrition Research Center, Brazil.
Bernadette D G M
BD
Franco
Department of Food and Experimental Nutrition, Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil; University of São Paulo - NAPAN - Food and Nutrition Research Center, Brazil. Electronic address: landgraf@usp.br.
Mariza
M
Landgraf
D000818:Animals; D001938:Brazil; D005511:Food Handling / Q000592:standards; D005516:Food Microbiology; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010125:Ostreidae / Q000382:microbiology*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors; D014736:Vibrio parahaemolyticus / Q000502:physiology*
Crassostrea brasiliana; Food safety; Probabilistic risk assessment; Shellfish; Vibrio parahaemolyticus