Mortality characteristics and prediction of female breast cancer in China from 1991 to 2011.
OBJECTIVE
To analyze time-dependent changes in female breast cancer (BC) mortality in China, forecast the trend in the ensuing 5 years, and provide recommendations for prevention and management.


METHODS
Mortality data of breast cancer in China from 1991 to 2011 was used to describe characteristics and distribution, such as the changes of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences and age differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of mortality. In addition, curve estimation, time series modeling, Gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression were performed to estimate and predict future trends.


RESULTS
In China, the mortality rate of breast cancer has increased yearly since 1991. In addition, our data predicted that the trend will continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. Rates in urban areas are higher than those in rural areas. Over the past decade, all peak ages for death by breast cancer have been delayed, with the first death peak occurring at 55 to 65 years of age in urban and rural areas. Geographical analysis indicated that mortality rates increased from Southwest to Northeast and from West to East.


CONCLUSIONS
The standardized mortality rate of breast cancer in China is rising and the upward trend is predicted to continue for the next 5 years. Since this can cause an enormous health impact in China, much better prevention and management of breast cancer is needed. Consequently, disease control centers in China should place more focus on the northeastern, eastern and southeastern parts of China for breast cancer prevention and management, and the key population should be among women between ages 55 to 65, especially those in urban communities.
Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, China E-mail : klin@stu.edu.cn.
Xiao-Jun
XJ
Shi
William W
WW
Au
Ku-Sheng
KS
Wu
Lin-Xiang
LX
Chen
Kun
K
Lin
D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality*; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D019468:Disease Management; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D011379:Prognosis; D012042:Registries; D012424:Rural Population; D015996:Survival Rate; D013997:Time Factors; D014505:Urban Population