Did Hurricane Sandy influence the 2012 US presidential election?
Despite drawing on a common pool of data, observers of the 2012 presidential campaign came to different conclusions about whether, how, and to what extent "October surprise" Hurricane Sandy influenced the election. The present study used a mixed correlational and experimental design to assess the relation between, and effect of, the salience of Hurricane Sandy on attitudes and voting intentions regarding President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in a large sample of voting-aged adults. Results suggest that immediately following positive news coverage of Obama's handling of the storm's aftermath, Sandy's salience positively influenced attitudes toward Obama, but that by election day, reminders of the hurricane became a drag instead of a boon for the President. In addition to theoretical implications, this study provides an example of how to combine methodological approaches to help answer questions about the impact of unpredictable, large-scale events as they unfold.
Department of Psychology Union College, Schenectady, NY 12308, United States. Electronic address: hartj@union.edu.
Joshua
J
Hart
D000328:Adult; D001290:Attitude; D055867:Cyclonic Storms / Q000266:history; D005197:Famous Persons; D035082:Federal Government / Q000266:history; D005260:Female; D049674:History, 21st Century; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011057:Politics; D011639:Public Opinion; D014481:United States
2012 Presidential election; Natural disasters; Political attitudes; Psychological threat; Research methodology