A stuctured discrete model for dengue fever infections and the determination of R0 from age-stratified serological data.
A time discrete age-structured model for modeling the spread of Dengue fever is built. The demographic dynamics is introduced trough the Leslie model. The basic reproductive number is introduced, and an approximation for it is built. The final age distributions for the susceptibles, infected and removed are obtained, and we show how they can be used to produce an actual estimate for R0 from stratified serological data. An application is made using data from Recife, Brazil, and explicit estimates for R0 are given.
Departamento de Matemática (IMECC), Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, SP, CEP 13083-859, Brazil.
Renato Francisco Lopes
RF
Mello
César
C
Castilho
D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D003715:Dengue / Q000097:blood / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000276:immunology*; D003716:Dengue Virus / Q000276:immunology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008875:Middle Aged; D018448:Models, Immunological; D009716:Numerical Analysis, Computer-Assisted; D016036:Seroepidemiologic Studies; D055815:Young Adult