title: Reactive nitrogen requirements to feed the world in 2050 and potential to mitigate nitrogen pollution.
abstract: Reactive nitrogen (Nr) is an indispensable nutrient for agricultural production and human alimentation. Simultaneously, agriculture is the largest contributor to Nr pollution, causing severe damages to human health and ecosystem services. The trade-off between food availability and Nr pollution can be attenuated by several key mitigation options, including Nr efficiency improvements in crop and animal production systems, food waste reduction in households and lower consumption of Nr-intensive animal products. However, their quantitative mitigation potential remains unclear, especially under the added pressure of population growth and changes in food consumption. Here we show by model simulations, that under baseline conditions, Nr pollution in 2050 can be expected to rise to 102-156% of the 2010 value. Only under ambitious mitigation, does pollution possibly decrease to 36-76% of the 2010 value. Air, water and atmospheric Nr pollution go far beyond critical environmental thresholds without mitigation actions. Even under ambitious mitigation, the risk remains that thresholds are exceeded.
authors.affiliation: 1] Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg C4, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany [2] International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Apartado Aéreo 6713, Cali, Colombia.
authors.forename: Benjamin Leon
authors.initials: BL
authors.lastname: Bodirsky
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg C4, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: Alexander
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Popp
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg C4, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: Hermann
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Lotze-Campen
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg C4, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: Jan Philipp
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Dietrich
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg C4, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: Susanne
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Rolinski
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg C4, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: Isabelle
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Weindl
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg C4, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: Christoph
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Schmitz
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg C4, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: Christoph
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Müller
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg C4, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: Markus
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bonsch
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg C4, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: Florian
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Humpenöder
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg C4, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: Anne
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Biewald
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg C4, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: Miodrag
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Stevanovic
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D018556:Crops, Agricultural / Q000378:metabolism / Q000600:supply & distribution*; D004787:Environmental Pollution / Q000517:prevention & control*; D005523:Food Supply; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009586:Nitrogen Fixation; D011158:Population Growth; D026361:Reactive Nitrogen Species / Q000600:supply & distribution*
chemical_list: D026361:Reactive Nitrogen Species