title: Discriminative and predictive properties of multidimensional prognostic indices of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a validation study in Taiwanese patients.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a pulmonary disease with systemic involvement. Several multidimensional indices have been developed to predict long-term outcomes. However, these indices have not been compared and validated in Taiwanese patients with COPD.
  
  
  METHODS
  A prospective, observational, hospital-based study was designed, and a total of 621 patients were recruited from May 2006 to December 2011. Patients followed at least 1 year were enrolled and 594 patients eligible for inclusion. Three prognostic indices--the ADO (age, dyspnoea and airflow obstruction), BODEx (body mass index, airflow obstruction, dyspnoea and exacerbations), and CPI (the COPD Prognostic Index)--were validated and the predictive power of each was analysed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The median follow-up of the 594 patients was 33 months (range 1-72 months), and the mortality rate was 19.2% (114 deaths). All indices were significantly predictive for all-cause mortality in our validation cohort. Furthermore, the C statistics of the three indices, indicating their predictive accuracy, were all >0.7 (area under the curve of the CPI 0.718, P < 0.001, ADO 0.702, P < 0.001, BODEx 0.702, P < 0.001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  ADO, BODEx and CPI scores are useful predictors of all-cause mortality with significantly discriminative properties in Taiwanese patients with COPD.
authors.affiliation: Division of Chest Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine, National Cheng Kung University Hospital, Tainan, Taiwan.
authors.forename: Chih-Ying
authors.initials: CY
authors.lastname: Ou
authors.forename: Chiung-Zuei
authors.initials: CZ
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.forename: Chun-Hsiang
authors.initials: CH
authors.lastname: Yu
authors.forename: Chih-Hui
authors.initials: CH
authors.lastname: Shiu
authors.forename: Tzuen-Ren
authors.initials: TR
authors.lastname: Hsiue
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015992:Body Mass Index; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D029424:Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality*; D012123:Pulmonary Ventilation / Q000502:physiology; D012107:Research Design; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013624:Taiwan / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: age; airflow obstruction; body mass index; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; dyspnoea and airflow obstruction; dyspnoea and exacerbations; mortality; prognostic index