title: Use of coronary artery calcium testing to guide aspirin utilization for primary prevention: estimates from the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Aspirin for the primary prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) is only recommended for individuals at high risk for CHD although the majority of CHD events occur in individuals who are at low to intermediate risk.
  
  
  RESULTS
  To estimate the potential of coronary artery calcium (CAC) scoring to guide aspirin use for primary prevention of CHD, we studied 4229 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis who were not on aspirin at baseline and were free of diabetes mellitus. Using data from median 7.6-year follow-up, 5-year number-needed-to-treat estimations were calculated by applying an 18% relative CHD reduction to the observed event rates. This was contrasted to 5-year number-needed-to-harm estimations based on the risk of major bleeding reported in an aspirin meta-analysis. Results were stratified by a 10% 10-year CHD Framingham Risk Score (FRS). Individuals with CAC≥100 had an estimated net benefit with aspirin regardless of their traditional risk status (estimated 5-year number needed to treat of 173 for individuals <10% FRS and 92 for individuals ≥10% FRS, estimated 5-year number needed to harm of 442 for a major bleed). Conversely, individuals with zero CAC had unfavorable estimations (estimated 5-year number needed to treat of 2036 for individuals <10% FRS and 808 for individuals ≥10% FRS, estimated 5-year number needed to harm of 442 for a major bleed). Sex-specific and age-stratified analyses showed similar results.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  For the primary prevention of CHD, Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants with CAC≥100 had favorable risk/benefit estimations for aspirin use while participants with zero CAC were estimated to receive net harm from aspirin.
authors.affiliation: From the Minneapolis Heart Institute and Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Minneapolis, MN (M.D.M.); Brigham and Women's Hospital and Boston VA Healthcare System, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (M.D.M.); Cardiovascular Division, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (D.A.D.); Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (J.R.M., A.R.F.); Ciccarone Preventive Cardiology Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (M.J.B., K.N., M.G.S.); Center for Prevention and Wellness Research, Baptist Health South Florida, Miami, FL (K.N.); Department of Epidemiology, Robert Stempel College of Public Health, Florida International University, Miami (K.N.); Department of Medicine, Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine, Miami, FL (K.N.); Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA (R.B.); Los Angeles Biomedical Research Institute at Harbor-UCLA, Torrance, CA (M.J.B.); and Department of Preventive Medicine (P.G.) and Department of Medicine (P.G.), Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL. mdm307@mail.harvard.edu.
authors.forename: Michael D
authors.initials: MD
authors.lastname: Miedema
authors.affiliation: From the Minneapolis Heart Institute and Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Minneapolis, MN (M.D.M.); Brigham and Women's Hospital and Boston VA Healthcare System, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (M.D.M.); Cardiovascular Division, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (D.A.D.); Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (J.R.M., A.R.F.); Ciccarone Preventive Cardiology Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (M.J.B., K.N., M.G.S.); Center for Prevention and Wellness Research, Baptist Health South Florida, Miami, FL (K.N.); Department of Epidemiology, Robert Stempel College of Public Health, Florida International University, Miami (K.N.); Department of Medicine, Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine, Miami, FL (K.N.); Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA (R.B.); Los Angeles Biomedical Research Institute at Harbor-UCLA, Torrance, CA (M.J.B.); and Department of Preventive Medicine (P.G.) and Department of Medicine (P.G.), Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.
authors.forename: Daniel A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Duprez
authors.affiliation: From the Minneapolis Heart Institute and Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Minneapolis, MN (M.D.M.); Brigham and Women's Hospital and Boston VA Healthcare System, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (M.D.M.); Cardiovascular Division, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (D.A.D.); Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (J.R.M., A.R.F.); Ciccarone Preventive Cardiology Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (M.J.B., K.N., M.G.S.); Center for Prevention and Wellness Research, Baptist Health South Florida, Miami, FL (K.N.); Department of Epidemiology, Robert Stempel College of Public Health, Florida International University, Miami (K.N.); Department of Medicine, Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine, Miami, FL (K.N.); Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA (R.B.); Los Angeles Biomedical Research Institute at Harbor-UCLA, Torrance, CA (M.J.B.); and Department of Preventive Medicine (P.G.) and Department of Medicine (P.G.), Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.
authors.forename: Jeffrey R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Misialek
authors.affiliation: From the Minneapolis Heart Institute and Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Minneapolis, MN (M.D.M.); Brigham and Women's Hospital and Boston VA Healthcare System, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (M.D.M.); Cardiovascular Division, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (D.A.D.); Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (J.R.M., A.R.F.); Ciccarone Preventive Cardiology Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (M.J.B., K.N., M.G.S.); Center for Prevention and Wellness Research, Baptist Health South Florida, Miami, FL (K.N.); Department of Epidemiology, Robert Stempel College of Public Health, Florida International University, Miami (K.N.); Department of Medicine, Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine, Miami, FL (K.N.); Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA (R.B.); Los Angeles Biomedical Research Institute at Harbor-UCLA, Torrance, CA (M.J.B.); and Department of Preventive Medicine (P.G.) and Department of Medicine (P.G.), Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.
authors.forename: Michael J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Blaha
authors.affiliation: From the Minneapolis Heart Institute and Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Minneapolis, MN (M.D.M.); Brigham and Women's Hospital and Boston VA Healthcare System, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (M.D.M.); Cardiovascular Division, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (D.A.D.); Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (J.R.M., A.R.F.); Ciccarone Preventive Cardiology Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (M.J.B., K.N., M.G.S.); Center for Prevention and Wellness Research, Baptist Health South Florida, Miami, FL (K.N.); Department of Epidemiology, Robert Stempel College of Public Health, Florida International University, Miami (K.N.); Department of Medicine, Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine, Miami, FL (K.N.); Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA (R.B.); Los Angeles Biomedical Research Institute at Harbor-UCLA, Torrance, CA (M.J.B.); and Department of Preventive Medicine (P.G.) and Department of Medicine (P.G.), Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.
authors.forename: Khurram
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Nasir
authors.affiliation: From the Minneapolis Heart Institute and Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Minneapolis, MN (M.D.M.); Brigham and Women's Hospital and Boston VA Healthcare System, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (M.D.M.); Cardiovascular Division, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (D.A.D.); Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (J.R.M., A.R.F.); Ciccarone Preventive Cardiology Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (M.J.B., K.N., M.G.S.); Center for Prevention and Wellness Research, Baptist Health South Florida, Miami, FL (K.N.); Department of Epidemiology, Robert Stempel College of Public Health, Florida International University, Miami (K.N.); Department of Medicine, Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine, Miami, FL (K.N.); Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA (R.B.); Los Angeles Biomedical Research Institute at Harbor-UCLA, Torrance, CA (M.J.B.); and Department of Preventive Medicine (P.G.) and Department of Medicine (P.G.), Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.
authors.forename: Michael G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Silverman
authors.affiliation: From the Minneapolis Heart Institute and Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Minneapolis, MN (M.D.M.); Brigham and Women's Hospital and Boston VA Healthcare System, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (M.D.M.); Cardiovascular Division, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (D.A.D.); Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (J.R.M., A.R.F.); Ciccarone Preventive Cardiology Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (M.J.B., K.N., M.G.S.); Center for Prevention and Wellness Research, Baptist Health South Florida, Miami, FL (K.N.); Department of Epidemiology, Robert Stempel College of Public Health, Florida International University, Miami (K.N.); Department of Medicine, Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine, Miami, FL (K.N.); Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA (R.B.); Los Angeles Biomedical Research Institute at Harbor-UCLA, Torrance, CA (M.J.B.); and Department of Preventive Medicine (P.G.) and Department of Medicine (P.G.), Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.
authors.forename: Ron
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Blankstein
authors.affiliation: From the Minneapolis Heart Institute and Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Minneapolis, MN (M.D.M.); Brigham and Women's Hospital and Boston VA Healthcare System, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (M.D.M.); Cardiovascular Division, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (D.A.D.); Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (J.R.M., A.R.F.); Ciccarone Preventive Cardiology Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (M.J.B., K.N., M.G.S.); Center for Prevention and Wellness Research, Baptist Health South Florida, Miami, FL (K.N.); Department of Epidemiology, Robert Stempel College of Public Health, Florida International University, Miami (K.N.); Department of Medicine, Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine, Miami, FL (K.N.); Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA (R.B.); Los Angeles Biomedical Research Institute at Harbor-UCLA, Torrance, CA (M.J.B.); and Department of Preventive Medicine (P.G.) and Department of Medicine (P.G.), Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.
authors.forename: Matthew J
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Budoff
authors.affiliation: From the Minneapolis Heart Institute and Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Minneapolis, MN (M.D.M.); Brigham and Women's Hospital and Boston VA Healthcare System, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (M.D.M.); Cardiovascular Division, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (D.A.D.); Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (J.R.M., A.R.F.); Ciccarone Preventive Cardiology Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (M.J.B., K.N., M.G.S.); Center for Prevention and Wellness Research, Baptist Health South Florida, Miami, FL (K.N.); Department of Epidemiology, Robert Stempel College of Public Health, Florida International University, Miami (K.N.); Department of Medicine, Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine, Miami, FL (K.N.); Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA (R.B.); Los Angeles Biomedical Research Institute at Harbor-UCLA, Torrance, CA (M.J.B.); and Department of Preventive Medicine (P.G.) and Department of Medicine (P.G.), Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.
authors.forename: Philip
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Greenland
authors.affiliation: From the Minneapolis Heart Institute and Minneapolis Heart Institute Foundation, Minneapolis, MN (M.D.M.); Brigham and Women's Hospital and Boston VA Healthcare System, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (M.D.M.); Cardiovascular Division, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (D.A.D.); Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis (J.R.M., A.R.F.); Ciccarone Preventive Cardiology Center, Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD (M.J.B., K.N., M.G.S.); Center for Prevention and Wellness Research, Baptist Health South Florida, Miami, FL (K.N.); Department of Epidemiology, Robert Stempel College of Public Health, Florida International University, Miami (K.N.); Department of Medicine, Herbert Wertheim College of Medicine, Miami, FL (K.N.); Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA (R.B.); Los Angeles Biomedical Research Institute at Harbor-UCLA, Torrance, CA (M.J.B.); and Department of Preventive Medicine (P.G.) and Department of Medicine (P.G.), Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine, Chicago, IL.
authors.forename: Aaron R
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Folsom
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001241:Aspirin / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000009:adverse effects; D050197:Atherosclerosis / Q000150:complications / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000628:therapy; D002118:Calcium / Q000097:blood*; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000209:etiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D003331:Coronary Vessels / Q000378:metabolism* / Q000473:pathology; D005006:Ethnicity; D005260:Female; D005343:Fibrinolytic Agents / Q000008:administration & dosage / Q000009:adverse effects; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006470:Hemorrhage / Q000209:etiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011322:Primary Prevention; D011379:Prognosis; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D014481:United States
chemical_list: D005343:Fibrinolytic Agents; D001241:Aspirin; D002118:Calcium
keywords: aspirin; coronary disease; prevention