title: A study of anthropogenic and climatic disturbance of the New River Estuary using a Bayesian belief network.
abstract: The present paper utilizes a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) approach to intuitively present and quantify our current understanding of the complex physical, chemical, and biological processes that lead to eutrophication in an estuarine ecosystem (New River Estuary, North Carolina, USA). The model is further used to explore the effects of plausible future climatic and nutrient pollution management scenarios on water quality indicators. The BBN, through visualizing the structure of the network, facilitates knowledge communication with managers/stakeholders who might not be experts in the underlying scientific disciplines. Moreover, the developed structure of the BBN is transferable to other comparable estuaries. The BBN nodes are discretized exploring a new approach called moment matching method. The conditional probability tables of the variables are driven by a large dataset (four years). Our results show interaction among various predictors and their impact on water quality indicators. The synergistic effects caution future management actions.
authors.affiliation: Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA. Electronic address: farnaz.nojavan@duke.edu.
authors.forename: Farnaz
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Nojavan A
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Sciences, The University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606, USA.
authors.forename: Song S
authors.initials: SS
authors.lastname: Qian
authors.affiliation: Institute of Marine Sciences, The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Morehead City, NC 28557, USA.
authors.forename: Hans W
authors.initials: HW
authors.lastname: Paerl
authors.affiliation: Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
authors.forename: Kenneth H
authors.initials: KH
authors.lastname: Reckhow
authors.affiliation: Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
authors.forename: Elizabeth A
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Albright
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D063366:Estuaries; D005068:Eutrophication; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009657:North Carolina; D060753:Water Quality
keywords: Bayesian belief network; Estuarine eutrophication; Harmful algal blooms; Hypoxia; Nutrients; Water quality