More reliable forecasts with less precise computations: a fast-track route to cloud-resolved weather and climate simulators?
This paper sets out a new methodological approach to solving the equations for simulating and predicting weather and climate. In this approach, the conventionally hard boundary between the dynamical core and the sub-grid parametrizations is blurred. This approach is motivated by the relatively shallow power-law spectrum for atmospheric energy on scales of hundreds of kilometres and less. It is first argued that, because of this, the closure schemes for weather and climate simulators should be based on stochastic-dynamic systems rather than deterministic formulae. Second, as high-wavenumber elements of the dynamical core will necessarily inherit this stochasticity during time integration, it is argued that the dynamical core will be significantly over-engineered if all computations, regardless of scale, are performed completely deterministically and if all variables are represented with maximum numerical precision (in practice using double-precision floating-point numbers). As the era of exascale computing is approached, an energy- and computationally efficient approach to cloud-resolved weather and climate simulation is described where determinism and numerical precision are focused on the largest scales only.
Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Clarendon Laboratory, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PU, UKOxford Martin Programme on Modelling and Predicting Climate t.n.palmer@atm.ox.ac.uk.
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approximate computing; climate simulation; stochastic modelling; weather prediction