Supply and demand for radiographers in Lithuania: a prognosis for 2012-2030.
BACKGROUND
This is the first ever study on the planning of the supply and demand for radiographers in Lithuania. The aim of this study was to analyze the supply and demand for radiographers in the labor market with respect to their number, structure, and services, and to provide a prognosis for the period of 2012-2030.


METHODS
Supply was calculated using two scenarios with differing duration of studies, annual student drop-out rates, rates of failure to start working, the annual number of new entrants into the labor market, and emigration rates. Annual mortality rates, the number of first-year students, and retirement rates were evaluated equally in both scenarios. Two projections of the demand for radiographers, based on the population's differing (by age and gender), need for outpatient radiology services, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance scans. Subsequently, the supply and demand scenarios were compared.


RESULTS
Evaluation of the perspective supply and demand scenarios - which are the most probable - revealed a gap forming during the analyzed period, the predicted specialist shortage will reach 0.13 full-time equivalents per 10,000 population, and in 2030-0.37 full-time equivalents per 10,000 population.


CONCLUSIONS
Considering the changes in education of radiographers, the socio-demographic characteristics of the staff, and the increasing need for radiographers' services, the supply of radiographers during the next two decades will be insufficient. To meet the forecasted demand for radiographers in the perspective scenario, the number of students choosing this specialty from 2013 on should increase by up to 30%.
Hospital of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences Kaunas Clinics, Department of Radiology, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Medical Academy, Eivenių str. 2, LT-50009 Kaunas, Lithuania; Hospital of Lithuanian University of Health Sciences Kaunas Clinics, Department of Nursing and Care, Eivenių str. 2, LT-50009 Kaunas, Lithuania. Electronic address: aurika.vanckaviciene@gmail.com.
Aurika
A
Vanckaviciene
Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Medical Academy, Department of Preventive Medicine, Mickeviciaus str. 9, LT-44307 Kaunas, Lithuania. Electronic address: liudvika.starkiene@lsmuni.lt.
Liudvika
L
Starkiene
Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Medical Academy, Faculty of Nursing, Mickeviciaus str. 9, LT-44307 Kaunas, Lithuania. Electronic address: jurate.macijauskiene@lsmuni.lt.
Jūrate
J
Macijauskiene
D003952:Diagnostic Imaging / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D004651:Employment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends; D005544:Forecasting; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000639:trends*; D008097:Lithuania; D020380:Needs Assessment / Q000639:trends; D010820:Physicians / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000600:supply & distribution* / Q000639:trends; D011871:Radiology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
Demand; Human resources; Projections; Radiographers; Radiology services; Supply