Projecting cancer incidence and deaths to 2030: the unexpected burden of thyroid, liver, and pancreas cancers in the United States.
Cancer incidence and deaths in the United States were projected for the most common cancer types for the years 2020 and 2030 based on changing demographics and the average annual percentage changes in incidence and death rates. Breast, prostate, and lung cancers will remain the top cancer diagnoses throughout this time, but thyroid cancer will replace colorectal cancer as the fourth leading cancer diagnosis by 2030, and melanoma and uterine cancer will become the fifth and sixth most common cancers, respectively. Lung cancer is projected to remain the top cancer killer throughout this time period. However, pancreas and liver cancers are projected to surpass breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers to become the second and third leading causes of cancer-related death by 2030, respectively. Advances in screening, prevention, and treatment can change cancer incidence and/or death rates, but it will require a concerted effort by the research and healthcare communities now to effect a substantial change for the future.
Authors' Affiliations: Pancreatic Cancer Action Network, Manhattan Beach, California and The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas.
Lola
L
Rahib
Authors' Affiliations: Pancreatic Cancer Action Network, Manhattan Beach, California and The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas.
Benjamin D
BD
Smith
Authors' Affiliations: Pancreatic Cancer Action Network, Manhattan Beach, California and The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas.
Rhonda
R
Aizenberg
Authors' Affiliations: Pancreatic Cancer Action Network, Manhattan Beach, California and The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas.
Allison B
AB
Rosenzweig
Authors' Affiliations: Pancreatic Cancer Action Network, Manhattan Beach, California and The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas.
Julie M
JM
Fleshman
Authors' Affiliations: Pancreatic Cancer Action Network, Manhattan Beach, California and The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas lmatrisian@pancan.org.
Lynn M
LM
Matrisian
D000367:Age Factors; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends; D010190:Pancreatic Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D013964:Thyroid Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology