title: Economic and environmental benefits of higher-octane gasoline.
abstract: We quantify the economic and environmental benefits of designing U.S. light-duty vehicles (LDVs) to attain higher fuel economy by utilizing higher octane (98 RON) gasoline. We use engine simulations, a review of experimental data, and drive cycle simulations to estimate the reduction in fuel consumption associated with using higher-RON gasoline in individual vehicles. Lifecycle CO2 emissions and economic impacts for the U.S. LDV fleet are estimated based on a linear-programming refinery model, a historically calibrated fleet model, and a well-to-wheels emissions analysis. We find that greater use of high-RON gasoline in appropriately tuned vehicles could reduce annual gasoline consumption in the U.S. by 3.0-4.4%. Accounting for the increase in refinery emissions from production of additional high-RON gasoline, net CO2 emissions are reduced by 19-35 Mt/y in 2040 (2.5-4.7% of total direct LDV CO2 emissions). For the strategies studied, the annual direct economic benefit is estimated to be $0.4-6.4 billion in 2040, and the annual net societal benefit including the social cost of carbon is estimated to be $1.7-8.8 billion in 2040. Adoption of a RON standard in the U.S. in place of the current antiknock index (AKI) may enable refineries to produce larger quantities of high-RON gasoline.
authors.affiliation: Department of Chemical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology , Cambridge 02139, Massachusetts, United States.
authors.forename: Raymond L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Speth
authors.forename: Eric W
authors.initials: EW
authors.lastname: Chow
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Malina
authors.forename: Steven R H
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Barrett
authors.forename: John B
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Heywood
authors.forename: William H
authors.initials: WH
authors.lastname: Green
mesh_terms: D002245:Carbon Dioxide / Q000032:analysis / Q000191:economics; D004777:Environment; D000431:Ethanol / Q000032:analysis; D005742:Gasoline / Q000032:analysis* / Q000191:economics*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018986:Motor Vehicles / Q000191:economics; D009795:Octanes / Q000032:analysis* / Q000191:economics*; D061329:Oil and Gas Fields; D014481:United States; D001335:Vehicle Emissions / Q000032:analysis
chemical_list: D005742:Gasoline; D009795:Octanes; D001335:Vehicle Emissions; D002245:Carbon Dioxide; D000431:Ethanol; C026728:octane