title: Exploring cattle movements in Belgium.
abstract: Movement of animals from one farm to another is a potential risk and can lead to the spreading of livestock diseases. Therefore, in order to implement effective control measures, it is important to understand the movement network in a given area. Using the SANITEL data from 2005 to 2009, around 2 million cattle movements in Belgium were traced. Exploratory analysis revealed different spatial structures for the movement of different cattle types: fattening calves are mostly moved to the Antwerp region, adult cattle are moved to different parts in Belgium. Based on these differences, movement of cattle would more likely cause a spread of disease to a larger number of areas in Belgium as compared to the fattening calves. A closer inspection of the spatial and temporal patterns of cattle movement using a weighted negative binomial model, revealed a significant short-distance movement of bovine which could be an important factor contributing to the local spreading of a disease. The model however revealed hot spot areas of movement in Belgium; four areas in the Walloon region (Luxembourg, Hainaut, Namur and Liege) were found as hot spot areas while East and West Flanders are important "receivers" of movement. This implies that an introduction of a disease to these Walloon regions could result in a spread toward the East and West Flanders regions, as what happened in the case of Bluetongue BTV-8 outbreak in 2006. The temporal component in the model also revealed a linear trend and short- and long-term seasonality in the cattle movement with a peak around spring and autumn. The result of this explorative analysis enabled the identification of "hot spots" in time and space which is important in enhancing any existing monitoring and surveillance system.
authors.affiliation: Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics (I-BioStat), Universiteit Hasselt, Martelarenlaan 42, 3500 Hasselt, Belgium. Electronic address: chellafe.ensoy@uhasselt.be.
authors.forename: Chellafe
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ensoy
authors.affiliation: Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics (I-BioStat), Universiteit Hasselt, Martelarenlaan 42, 3500 Hasselt, Belgium.
authors.forename: Christel
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Faes
authors.affiliation: Unit Co-ordination of Veterinary Diagnosis-Epidemiology and Risk Analysis - CODA-CERVA, Groeselenberg 99, B 1180 Brussels, Belgium.
authors.forename: Sarah
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Welby
authors.affiliation: Unit Co-ordination of Veterinary Diagnosis-Epidemiology and Risk Analysis - CODA-CERVA, Groeselenberg 99, B 1180 Brussels, Belgium; Laboratory of Veterinary Immunology, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, University of Ghent, Salisburylaan 133, B-9820 Merelbeke, Belgium.
authors.forename: Yves
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Van der Stede
authors.affiliation: Interuniversity Institute for Biostatistics and statistical Bioinformatics (I-BioStat), Universiteit Hasselt, Martelarenlaan 42, 3500 Hasselt, Belgium.
authors.forename: Marc
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Aerts
mesh_terms: D000822:Animal Husbandry; D000818:Animals; D001530:Belgium / Q000453:epidemiology; D001819:Bluetongue / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D001820:Bluetongue virus / Q000502:physiology; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012621:Seasons; D062206:Spatial Analysis; D014186:Transportation
keywords: Bluetongue; Cattle movement; Spatial; Temporal; Weighted Negative binomial