title: Loss of frugivore seed dispersal services under climate change.
abstract: The capacity of species to track shifting climates into the future will strongly influence outcomes for biodiversity under a rapidly changing climate. However, we know remarkably little about the dispersal abilities of most species and how these may be influenced by climate change. Here we show that climate change is projected to substantially reduce the seed dispersal services provided by frugivorous vertebrates in rainforests across the Australian Wet Tropics. Our model projections show reductions in both median and long-distance seed dispersal, which may markedly reduce the capacity of many rainforest plant species to track shifts in suitable habitat under climate change. However, our analyses suggest that active management to maintain the abundances of a small set of important frugivores under climate change could markedly reduce the projected loss of seed dispersal services and facilitate shifting distributions of rainforest plant species.
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Climate Adaptation Flagship, PO Box 1700, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia.
authors.forename: Karel
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Mokany
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore 560012, India.
authors.forename: Soumya
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Prasad
authors.affiliation: CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Tropical Forest Research Centre, PO Box 780, Atherton, Queensland 4883, Australia.
authors.forename: David A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Westcott
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001315:Australia; D057231:Climate Change; D005638:Fruit / Q000502:physiology*; D060434:Herbivory / Q000502:physiology*; D058614:Seed Dispersal; D014329:Tropical Climate