title: An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis applied to the prioritisation of pharmaceuticals as surface water contaminants from wastewater treatment plant direct emissions.
abstract: In this study, the concentration probability distributions of 82 pharmaceutical compounds detected in the effluents of 179 European wastewater treatment plants were computed and inserted into a multimedia fate model. The comparative ecotoxicological impact of the direct emission of these compounds from wastewater treatment plants on freshwater ecosystems, based on a potentially affected fraction (PAF) of species approach, was assessed to rank compounds based on priority. As many pharmaceuticals are acids or bases, the multimedia fate model accounts for regressions to estimate pH-dependent fate parameters. An uncertainty analysis was performed by means of Monte Carlo analysis, which included the uncertainty of fate and ecotoxicity model input variables, as well as the spatial variability of landscape characteristics on the European continental scale. Several pharmaceutical compounds were identified as being of greatest concern, including 7 analgesics/anti-inflammatories, 3 β-blockers, 3 psychiatric drugs, and 1 each of 6 other therapeutic classes. The fate and impact modelling relied extensively on estimated data, given that most of these compounds have little or no experimental fate or ecotoxicity data available, as well as a limited reported occurrence in effluents. The contribution of estimated model input variables to the variance of freshwater ecotoxicity impact, as well as the lack of experimental abiotic degradation data for most compounds, helped in establishing priorities for further testing. Generally, the effluent concentration and the ecotoxicity effect factor were the model input variables with the most significant effect on the uncertainty of output results.
authors.affiliation: SosteniPrA (UAB-IRTA-Inèdit), Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain; REQUIMTE, Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto, Instituto Politécnico do Porto, Rua Dr. António Bernardino de Almeida, 4200-072 Porto, Portugal. Electronic address: sergio_morais@yahoo.com.
authors.forename: Sérgio Alberto
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Morais
authors.affiliation: REQUIMTE, Instituto Superior de Engenharia do Porto, Instituto Politécnico do Porto, Rua Dr. António Bernardino de Almeida, 4200-072 Porto, Portugal.
authors.forename: Cristina
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Delerue-Matos
authors.affiliation: SosteniPrA (UAB-IRTA-Inèdit), Institut de Ciència i Tecnologia Ambientals (ICTA), Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain; Departament d'Enginyeria Química, Escola d'Enginyeria, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Xavier
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Gabarrell
mesh_terms: D017753:Ecosystem; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D005618:Fresh Water; D008956:Models, Chemical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D004364:Pharmaceutical Preparations / Q000032:analysis* / Q000145:classification; D011336:Probability; D018570:Risk Assessment; D035501:Uncertainty; D014865:Waste Disposal, Fluid / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D062065:Wastewater / Q000737:chemistry* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000032:analysis* / Q000145:classification; D014876:Water Pollution / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*
chemical_list: D004364:Pharmaceutical Preparations; D062065:Wastewater; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical
keywords: Freshwater ecotoxicity; Ionisable organics; Multimedia fate model; Pharmaceuticals; Uncertainty analysis; Wastewater treatment plants