title: [Predicting the Number of Office-Based Psychiatrists Needed in the Future: Potential and Limitations].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  This study discusses the potential and the limitations of medical workforce planning in outpatient psychiatry in Switzerland.
  
  
  METHODS
  Hypotheses concerning selected factors influencing the number of office-based psychiatrists needed in the future were formulated. In a next step, those hypotheses were assigned to one of three scenarios (high, constant, and normal need development). On the basis of these three scenarios, the number of psychiatrists needed was calculated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Taken together, the results from the scenarios indicate an undersupply of office-based psychiatrists for the next 20 years.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Estimating the number office-based psychiatrists needed in the future is basically feasible and reasonable. But according to the actual state of knowledge, only crude estimations are possible. There is a need for more research in this area.
authors.affiliation: Klinik für Psychiatrie, Psychotherapie und Psychosomatik, Psychiatrische Universitätsklinik Zürich/Schweiz.
authors.forename: Karin
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Landolt
authors.affiliation: Oberrieden, Schweiz.
authors.forename: Graziella Giacometti
authors.initials: GG
authors.lastname: Bickel
authors.affiliation: Winterthur, Schweiz.
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Bernath
authors.affiliation: Klinik für Psychiatrie, Psychotherapie und Psychosomatik, Psychiatrische Universitätsklinik Zürich/Schweiz.
authors.forename: Wulf
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Rössler
mesh_terms: D000553:Ambulatory Care; D003156:Community Mental Health Services / Q000600:supply & distribution* / Q000639:trends*; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D005544:Forecasting; D006285:Health Planning / Q000639:trends; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D001523:Mental Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000628:therapy*; D011331:Private Practice / Q000639:trends*; D011570:Psychiatry / Q000639:trends*; D013557:Switzerland; D000078329:Workforce