title: Developing risk prediction models for kidney injury and assessing incremental value for novel biomarkers.
abstract: The field of nephrology is actively involved in developing biomarkers and improving models for predicting patients' risks of AKI and CKD and their outcomes. However, some important aspects of evaluating biomarkers and risk models are not widely appreciated, and statistical methods are still evolving. This review describes some of the most important statistical concepts for this area of research and identifies common pitfalls. Particular attention is paid to metrics proposed within the last 5 years for quantifying the incremental predictive value of a new biomarker.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington;
authors.forename: Kathleen F
authors.initials: KF
authors.lastname: Kerr
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington;
authors.forename: Allison
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Meisner
authors.affiliation: Division of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada; and.
authors.forename: Heather
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Thiessen-Philbrook
authors.affiliation: Section of Nephrology, Yale University School of Medicine, Veterans Affairs Connecticut Healthcare System, and the Program of Applied Translational Research, New Haven, Connecticut.
authors.forename: Steven G
authors.initials: SG
authors.lastname: Coca
authors.affiliation: Section of Nephrology, Yale University School of Medicine, Veterans Affairs Connecticut Healthcare System, and the Program of Applied Translational Research, New Haven, Connecticut chirag.parikh@yale.edu.
authors.forename: Chirag R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Parikh
mesh_terms: D058186:Acute Kidney Injury / Q000097:blood / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000652:urine; D015415:Biomarkers / Q000097:blood / Q000652:urine; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors
chemical_list: D015415:Biomarkers
keywords: AUC; biomarkers; kidney injury; net reclassification improvement; risk prediction