title: Modelling the influence of climate change on the chemical concentrations in the Baltic Sea region with the POPCYCLING-Baltic model.
abstract: The effect of projected future changes in temperature, wind speed, precipitation and particulate organic carbon on concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea regional environment is evaluated using the POPCYCLING-Baltic multimedia chemical fate model. Steady-state concentrations of hypothetical perfectly persistent chemicals with property combinations that encompass the entire plausible range for non-ionizing organic substances are modelled under two alternative climate change scenarios (IPCC A2 and B2) and compared to a baseline climate scenario. The contributions of individual climate parameters are deduced in model experiments in which only one of the four parameters is changed from the baseline scenario. Of the four selected climate parameters, temperature is the most influential, and wind speed is least. Chemical concentrations in the Baltic region are projected to change by factors of up to 3.0 compared to the baseline climate scenario. For chemicals with property combinations similar to legacy persistent organic pollutants listed by the Stockholm Convention, modelled concentration ratios between two climate change scenarios and the baseline scenario range from factors of 0.5 to 2.0. This study is a first step toward quantitatively assessing climate change-induced changes in the environmental concentrations of persistent organic chemicals in the Baltic Sea region.
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM), Stockholm University, Frescativägen 50, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
authors.forename: Deguo
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Kong
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM), Stockholm University, Frescativägen 50, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden.
authors.forename: Matthew
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: MacLeod
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM), Stockholm University, Frescativägen 50, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Electronic address: ian.cousins@itm.su.se.
authors.forename: Ian T
authors.initials: IT
authors.lastname: Cousins
mesh_terms: D001454:Baltic States; D002244:Carbon / Q000032:analysis; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D004777:Environment; D004785:Environmental Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D008956:Models, Chemical; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D009930:Organic Chemicals / Q000032:analysis*; D013696:Temperature
chemical_list: D004785:Environmental Pollutants; D009930:Organic Chemicals; D002244:Carbon
keywords: Baltic Sea; Climate change; Multimedia model; Persistent organic chemicals