title: System dynamics approach for modeling of sugar beet yield considering the effects of climatic variables.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The aim of this study was to develop a system dynamics model for computation of yields and to investigate the dependency of yields on some major climatic parameters, i.e. temperature and rainfall, for Beta vulgaris subsp. (sugar beet crops) under future climate change scenarios.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A system dynamics model was developed which takes account of the effects of rainfall and temperature on sugar beet yields under limited irrigation conditions. A relationship was also developed between the seasonal evapotranspiration and seasonal growing degree days for sugar beet crops. The proposed model was set to run for the present time period of 1993-2012 and for the future period 2013-2040 for Lethbridge region (Alberta, Canada). The model provides sugar beet yields on a yearly basis which are comparable to the present field data. It was found that the future average yield will be increased at about 14% with respect to the present average yield.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The proposed model can help to improve the understanding of soil water conditions and irrigation water requirements of an area under certain climatic conditions and can be used for future prediction of yields for any crops in any region (with the required information to be provided). The developed system dynamics model can be used as a supporting tool for decision making, for improvement of agricultural management practice of any region.
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Canada, T6G 2R3.
authors.forename: Lia
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Pervin
authors.forename: Md Saiful
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Islam
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D000416:Alberta; D027461:Beta vulgaris; D018533:Biomass; D057231:Climate Change; D018556:Crops, Agricultural; D004777:Environment; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D018517:Plant Roots; D011891:Rain; D012987:Soil; D013696:Temperature; D014867:Water
chemical_list: D012987:Soil; D014867:Water
keywords: climatic variables; crop yield prediction; evapotranspiration; growing degree days; soil moisture; system dynamics model