title: Bovine tuberculosis: within-herd transmission models to support and direct the decision-making process.
abstract: Use of mathematical models to study the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is becoming increasingly common in veterinary sciences. However, modeling chronic infectious diseases such as bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is particularly challenging due to the substantial uncertainty associated with the epidemiology of the disease. Here, the methodological approaches used to model bTB and published in the peer-reviewed literature in the last decades were reviewed with a focus on the impact that the models' assumptions may have had on their results, such as the assumption of density vs. frequency-dependent transmission, the existence of non-infectious and non-detectable stages, and the effect of extrinsic sources of infection (usually associated with wildlife reservoirs). Although all studies suggested a relatively low rate of within-herd transmission of bTB when test-and-cull programs are in place, differences in the estimated length of the infection stages, sensitivity and specificity of the tests used and probable type of transmission (density or frequency dependent) were observed. Additional improvements, such as exploring the usefulness of contact-networks instead of assuming homogeneous mixing of animals, may help to build better models that can help to design, evaluate and monitor control and eradication strategies against bTB.
authors.affiliation: Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA. Electronic address: jalvarez@umn.edu.
authors.forename: Julio
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Alvarez
authors.affiliation: Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET), Universidad Complutense Madrid, Avda. Puerta de Hierro S/N, 28040 Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: Javier
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Bezos
authors.affiliation: Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET), Universidad Complutense Madrid, Avda. Puerta de Hierro S/N, 28040 Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: Maria Luisa
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: de la Cruz
authors.affiliation: Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET), Universidad Complutense Madrid, Avda. Puerta de Hierro S/N, 28040 Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: Carmen
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Casal
authors.affiliation: Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET), Universidad Complutense Madrid, Avda. Puerta de Hierro S/N, 28040 Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: Beatriz
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Romero
authors.affiliation: Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET), Universidad Complutense Madrid, Avda. Puerta de Hierro S/N, 28040 Madrid, Spain; Departamento de Sanidad Animal, Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Avda. Puerta de Hierro S/N, 28040 Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: Lucas
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Domínguez
authors.affiliation: Centro de Vigilancia Sanitaria Veterinaria (VISAVET), Universidad Complutense Madrid, Avda. Puerta de Hierro S/N, 28040 Madrid, Spain; Departamento de Sanidad Animal, Facultad de Veterinaria, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Avda. Puerta de Hierro S/N, 28040 Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: Lucía
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: de Juan
authors.affiliation: Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA.
authors.forename: Andrés
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Pérez
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D003657:Decision Making; D003661:Decision Support Techniques; D008954:Models, Biological; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D015995:Prevalence; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D014380:Tuberculosis, Bovine / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission*; D014730:Veterinary Medicine / Q000379:methods
keywords: Bovine tuberculosis; Diagnosis; Eradication; Modeling; Within-herd transmission