title: Predicting red blood cell transfusion in hospitalized patients: role of hemoglobin level, comorbidities, and illness severity.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Randomized controlled trial evidence supports a restrictive strategy of red blood cell (RBC) transfusion, but significant variation in clinical transfusion practice persists. Patient characteristics other than hemoglobin levels may influence the decision to transfuse RBCs and explain some of this variation. Our objective was to evaluate the role of patient comorbidities and severity of illness in predicting inpatient red blood cell transfusion events.
  
  
  METHODS
  We developed a predictive model of inpatient RBC transfusion using comprehensive electronic medical record (EMR) data from 21 hospitals over a four year period (2008-2011). Using a retrospective cohort study design, we modeled predictors of transfusion events within 24 hours of hospital admission and throughout the entire hospitalization. Model predictors included administrative data (age, sex, comorbid conditions, admission type, and admission diagnosis), admission hemoglobin, severity of illness, prior inpatient RBC transfusion, admission ward, and hospital.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The study cohort included 275,874 patients who experienced 444,969 hospitalizations. The 24 hour and overall inpatient RBC transfusion rates were 7.2% and 13.9%, respectively. A predictive model for transfusion within 24 hours of hospital admission had a C-statistic of 0.928 and pseudo-R2 of 0.542; corresponding values for the model examining transfusion through the entire hospitalization were 0.872 and 0.437. Inclusion of the admission hemoglobin resulted in the greatest improvement in model performance relative to patient comorbidities and severity of illness.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Data from electronic medical records at the time of admission predicts with very high likelihood the incidence of red blood transfusion events in the first 24 hours and throughout hospitalization. Patient comorbidities and severity of illness on admission play a small role in predicting the likelihood of RBC transfusion relative to the admission hemoglobin.
authors.affiliation: Blood Systems Research Institute, 270 Masonic Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94118, USA. nroubinian@bloodsystems.org.
authors.forename: Nareg H
authors.initials: NH
authors.lastname: Roubinian
authors.forename: Edward L
authors.initials: EL
authors.lastname: Murphy
authors.forename: Bix E
authors.initials: BE
authors.lastname: Swain
authors.forename: Marla N
authors.initials: MN
authors.lastname: Gardner
authors.forename: Vincent
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.forename: Gabriel J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Escobar
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015897:Comorbidity; D057286:Electronic Health Records; D017707:Erythrocyte Transfusion; D005260:Female; D006454:Hemoglobins / Q000032:analysis*; D006760:Hospitalization; D006801:Humans; D007362:Intensive Care Units; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012720:Severity of Illness Index
chemical_list: D006454:Hemoglobins