title: A new predictive model for an improved respiratory isolation strategy in HIV-infected patients with PTB.
abstract: METHODS
  Luigi Sacco Hospital, Milan, Italy, 1 January 2000-31 December 2010.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To develop a predictive score for identifying human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected patients with pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB).
  
  
  METHODS
  Retrospective study based on the medical charts of HIV-infected patients admitted consecutively on presumption of PTB. Patients with culture-positive TB were included in the TB group. Culture-negative subjects formed the non-TB group. Risk factors for PTB were identified and a predictive model was developed. The diagnostic test accuracy of the derived score and that of previously developed scores were analysed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 65 patients were included in the TB group and 505 subjects in the non-TB group. An eight-variable model (age, origin, alcohol use, respiratory rate, weight loss, haemoglobin, white blood cell count, typical chest X-ray) was derived. When compared with the different scores, this model showed the greatest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.880). This score was the only one to present a negative likelihood ratio of <0.2, which is the threshold for giving strong diagnostic evidence against TB.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This model may be useful in predicting PTB in HIV patients in low-endemic countries. A validation study is necessary.
authors.affiliation: <label>*</label>Department of Clinical Sciences, Division of Infectious Diseases, Luigi Sacco Hospital, University of Milano, Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Carugati
authors.affiliation: <label>*</label>Department of Clinical Sciences, Division of Infectious Diseases, Luigi Sacco Hospital, University of Milano, Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Schiroli
authors.affiliation: <label>*</label>Department of Clinical Sciences, Division of Infectious Diseases, Luigi Sacco Hospital, University of Milano, Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Zanini
authors.affiliation: <label>*</label>Department of Clinical Sciences, Division of Infectious Diseases, Luigi Sacco Hospital, University of Milano, Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Vanoni
authors.affiliation: <label>*</label>Department of Clinical Sciences, Division of Infectious Diseases, Luigi Sacco Hospital, University of Milano, Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Galli
authors.affiliation: <label><sup>†</sup></label>Institute of Biomedical Technologies, National Research Council Milano, Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Adorni
authors.affiliation: <label>*</label>Department of Clinical Sciences, Division of Infectious Diseases, Luigi Sacco Hospital, University of Milano, Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Franzetti
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D016013:Likelihood Functions; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D012372:ROC Curve; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D014397:Tuberculosis, Pulmonary / Q000453:epidemiology*