title: The development of a method for identifying penalty kick strategies in association football.
abstract: Penalty takers in association football adopt either a keeper-independent or a keeper-dependent strategy, with the benefits of the keeper-independent strategy presumed to be greater. Yet, despite its relevance for research and practitioners, thus far no method for identifying penalty kick strategies has been available. To develop a validated and reliable method, Experiment 1 assessed characteristics that observers should use to distinguish the two strategies. We asked participants to rate 12 characteristics of pre-recorded clips of kicks of penalty takers that used either a keeper-independent or keeper-dependent strategy. A logistic regression model identified three variables (attention to the goalkeeper, run-up fluency and kicking technique) that in combination predicted kick strategy in 92% of the penalties. We used the model in Experiment 2 to analyse prevalence and efficacy of both the strategies for penalty kicks in penalty shoot-outs during FIFA World Cups (1986-2010) and UEFA Football Championships (1984-2012). The keeper-independent strategy was used much more frequently (i.e., 78-86%) than the keeper-dependent strategy, but successes did not differ. Penalty takers should use both the strategies to be less predictable. Goalkeepers can use the developed model to improve their chances to succeed by adjusting their behaviour to penalty takers' preferred penalty kick strategy.
authors.affiliation: a Institute of Cognitive and Team/Racket Sport Research , German Sport University , Cologne , Germany.
authors.forename: Benjamin
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Noël
authors.forename: Philip
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Furley
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: van der Kamp
authors.forename: Matt
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Dicks
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Memmert
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001288:Attention; D003163:Competitive Behavior; D003657:Decision Making; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D009048:Motor Skills / Q000502:physiology; D012916:Soccer / Q000502:physiology / Q000523:psychology*; D013647:Task Performance and Analysis
keywords: penalty kick strategy; penalty kicks; performance analysis; visual anticipation