title: Limitations of a time-lapse blastocyst prediction model: a large multicentre outcome analysis.
abstract: The goal of embryo selection models is to select embryos with the highest reproductive potential, whilst minimizing the rejection of viable embryos. Ultimately, any embryo selection model must be tested on clinical outcome. We therefore retrospectively tested a published blastocyst prediction model on a large combined set of transferred embryos with known clinical outcome. The model was somewhat effective in that we found a relative increase of 30% for implantation in the model-selected group of embryos. There was, however, a concomitant large rejection of embryos from our test cohort, which actually resulted in pregnancy. This hypothetical experiment highlights the limitations of predicting blastulation only. Crucially, it illustrates that both sensitivity and specificity are important parameters when developing embryo selection models for prospective clinical use.
authors.affiliation: Fertility Clinic, Aarhus University Hospital, Brendstrupgaardsvej 100, 8200 Aarhus N, Denmark; Health, Aarhus University, Vennelyst Boulevard 9, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark. Electronic address: kirstine.kirkegaard@ki.au.dk.
authors.forename: Kirstine
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Kirkegaard
authors.affiliation: CARE Fertility Group, John Webster House, 6 Lawrence Drive, Nottingham Business Park, Nottingham NG8 6PZ, UK.
authors.forename: Alison
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Campbell
authors.affiliation: The Fertility Clinic, Braedstrup Hospital, Sygehusvej 20, 8740 Brædstrup, Denmark.
authors.forename: Inge
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Agerholm
authors.affiliation: Dansk Fertilitetsklinik, Seedorffs Vaenge 2, 2000 Frederiksberg, Denmark.
authors.forename: Ursula
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Bentin-Ley
authors.affiliation: Ciconia Aarhus Privathospital, Saralyst Allé 50, 8270 Højbjerg, Denmark.
authors.forename: Anette
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gabrielsen
authors.affiliation: Maigaard Fertility Clinic, Jens Baggesensvej 88 H, 8200 Aarhus N, Denmark.
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kirk
authors.affiliation: Klinikk Hausken, Karmsundgata 59, 5531 Haugesund, Norway.
authors.forename: Shabana
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sayed
authors.affiliation: Fertility Clinic, Aarhus University Hospital, Brendstrupgaardsvej 100, 8200 Aarhus N, Denmark; Health, Aarhus University, Vennelyst Boulevard 9, 8000 Aarhus C, Denmark.
authors.forename: Hans Jakob
authors.initials: HJ
authors.lastname: Ingerslev
mesh_terms: D001755:Blastocyst; D006801:Humans; D008954:Models, Biological; D027724:Reproductive Techniques, Assisted; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D059008:Time-Lapse Imaging
keywords: assisted reproduction; embryo selection; prediction model; time lapse