title: Designing a high-yielding maize ideotype for a changing climate in Lombardy plain (northern Italy).
abstract: The expected climate change will affect the maize yields in view of air temperature increase and scarce water availability. The application of biophysical models offers the chance to design a drought-resistant ideotype and to assist plant breeders and agronomists in the assessment of its suitability in future scenarios. The aim of the present work was to perform a model-based estimation of the yields of two hybrids, current vs ideotype, under future climate scenarios (2030-2060 and 2070-2100) in Lombardy (northern Italy), testing two options of irrigation (small amount at fixed dates vs optimal water supply), nitrogen (N) fertilization (300 vs 400 kg N ha(-1)), and crop cycle durations (current vs extended). For the designing of the ideotype we set several parameters of the ARMOSA process-based crop model: the root elongation rate and maximum depth, stomatal resistance, four stage-specific crop coefficients for the actual transpiration estimation, and drought tolerance factor. The work findings indicated that the current hybrid ensures good production only with high irrigation amount (245-565 mm y(-1)). With respect to the current hybrid, the ideotype will require less irrigation water (-13%, p<0.01) and it resulted in significantly higher yield under water stress condition (+15%, p<0.01) and optimal water supply (+2%, p<0.05). The elongated cycle has a positive effect on yield under any combination of options. Moreover, higher yields projected for the ideotype implicate more crop residues to be incorporated into the soil, which are positively correlated with the SOC sequestration and negatively with N leaching. The crop N uptake is expected to be adequate in view of higher rate of soil mineralization; the N fertilization rate of 400 kg N ha(-1) will involve significant increasing of grain yield, and it is expected to involve a higher rate of SOC sequestration.
authors.affiliation: Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences - Production, Landscape, Agroenergy, University of Milan, Via Celoria 2, 20133 Milan, Italy. Electronic address: alessia.perego@unimi.it.
authors.forename: Alessia
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Perego
authors.affiliation: Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences - Production, Landscape, Agroenergy, University of Milan, Via Celoria 2, 20133 Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: Mattia
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sanna
authors.affiliation: Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences - Production, Landscape, Agroenergy, University of Milan, Via Celoria 2, 20133 Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: Andrea
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Giussani
authors.affiliation: Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences - Production, Landscape, Agroenergy, University of Milan, Via Celoria 2, 20133 Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: Marcello Ermido
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Chiodini
authors.affiliation: Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences - Production, Landscape, Agroenergy, University of Milan, Via Celoria 2, 20133 Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: Mattia
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Fumagalli
authors.affiliation: Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences - Production, Landscape, Agroenergy, University of Milan, Via Celoria 2, 20133 Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: Salvatore Roberto
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Pilu
authors.affiliation: Department of Plant, Soil and Environmental Science, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, Italy.
authors.forename: Marco
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bindi
authors.affiliation: Department of Plant, Soil and Environmental Science, University of Florence, Piazzale delle Cascine 18, 50144 Florence, Italy.
authors.forename: Marco
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Moriondo
authors.affiliation: Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences - Production, Landscape, Agroenergy, University of Milan, Via Celoria 2, 20133 Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: Marco
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Acutis
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000379:methods* / Q000592:standards; D057231:Climate Change; D055864:Droughts; D007558:Italy; D009584:Nitrogen / Q000032:analysis; D012987:Soil; D014881:Water Supply / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003313:Zea mays / Q000254:growth & development* / Q000592:standards
chemical_list: D012987:Soil; D009584:Nitrogen
keywords: Climate change; Crop model; Maize; Water use adaptation