title: Effect of non-stationary climate on infectious gastroenteritis transmission in Japan.
abstract: Local weather factors are widely considered to influence the transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. Few studies, however, have examined the non-stationary relationships between global climatic factors and transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. We analyzed monthly data for cases of infectious gastroenteritis in Fukuoka, Japan from 2000 to 2012 using cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the pattern of associations between indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Infectious gastroenteritis cases were non-stationary and significantly associated with the IOD and ENSO (Multivariate ENSO Index [MEI], Niño 1 + 2, Niño 3, Niño 4, and Niño 3.4) for a period of approximately 1 to 2 years. This association was non-stationary and appeared to have a major influence on the synchrony of infectious gastroenteritis transmission. Our results suggest that non-stationary patterns of association between global climate factors and incidence of infectious gastroenteritis should be considered when developing early warning systems for epidemics of infectious gastroenteritis.
authors.affiliation: Department of Planning Information and Administration, Fukuoka Institute of Health and Environmental Sciences, 39 Mukaizano, Dazaifu-shi, Fukuoka 818-0135, Japan.
authors.forename: Daisuke
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Onozuka
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001424:Bacterial Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D005759:Gastroenteritis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013223:Statistics as Topic; D055815:Young Adult