title: Ocean net heat flux influences seasonal to interannual patterns of plankton abundance.
abstract: Changes in the net heat flux (NHF) into the ocean have profound impacts on global climate. We analyse a long-term plankton time-series and show that the NHF is a critical indicator of ecosystem dynamics. We show that phytoplankton abundance and diversity patterns are tightly bounded by the switches between negative and positive NHF over an annual cycle. Zooplankton increase before the transition to positive NHF in the spring but are constrained by the negative NHF switch in autumn. By contrast bacterial diversity is decoupled from either NHF switch, but is inversely correlated (r = -0.920) with the magnitude of the NHF. We show that the NHF is a robust mechanistic tool for predicting climate change indicators such as spring phytoplankton bloom timing and length of the growing season.
authors.affiliation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, Devon, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Tim J
authors.initials: TJ
authors.lastname: Smyth
authors.affiliation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, Devon, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Icarus
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Allen
authors.affiliation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, Devon, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Angus
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Atkinson
authors.affiliation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, Devon, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: John T
authors.initials: JT
authors.lastname: Bruun
authors.affiliation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, Devon, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Rachel A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Harmer
authors.affiliation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, Devon, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Robin D
authors.initials: RD
authors.lastname: Pingree
authors.affiliation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, Devon, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Claire E
authors.initials: CE
authors.lastname: Widdicombe
authors.affiliation: Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Plymouth, Devon, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Paul J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Somerfield
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001419:Bacteria / Q000254:growth & development; D044822:Biodiversity; D057231:Climate Change; D006358:Hot Temperature; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D010839:Phytoplankton / Q000254:growth & development* / Q000382:microbiology; D012621:Seasons; D015048:Zooplankton / Q000254:growth & development* / Q000382:microbiology