title: Phylogeny predicts future habitat shifts due to climate change.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Taxa may respond differently to climatic changes, depending on phylogenetic or ecological effects, but studies that discern among these alternatives are scarce. Here, we use two species pairs from globally distributed spider clades, each pair representing two lifestyles (generalist, specialist) to test the relative importance of phylogeny versus ecology in predicted responses to climate change.
  
  
  METHODS
  We used a recent phylogenetic hypothesis for nephilid spiders to select four species from two genera (Nephilingis and Nephilengys) that match the above criteria, are fully allopatric but combined occupy all subtropical-tropical regions. Based on their records, we modeled each species niche spaces and predicted their ecological shifts 20, 40, 60, and 80 years into the future using customized GIS tools and projected climatic changes.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Phylogeny better predicts the species current ecological preferences than do lifestyles. By 2080 all species face dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (54.8-77.1%) and adapt by moving towards higher altitudes and latitudes, although at different tempos. Phylogeny and life style explain simulated habitat shifts in altitude, but phylogeny is the sole best predictor of latitudinal shifts. Models incorporating phylogenetic relatedness are an important additional tool to predict accurately biotic responses to global change.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Biology, Scientific Research Centre, Slovenian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Ljubljana, Slovenia; Centre for Behavioural Ecology and Evolution, College of Life Sciences, Hubei University, Wuhan, Hubei, China; National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, D. C., United States of America.
authors.forename: Matjaž
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kuntner
authors.affiliation: Centre of Landscape-Territory-Information Systems - CeLTIS, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania; Tular Cave Laboratory, Kranj, Slovenia.
authors.forename: Magdalena
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Năpăruş
authors.affiliation: Centre for Behavioural Ecology and Evolution, College of Life Sciences, Hubei University, Wuhan, Hubei, China; Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
authors.forename: Daiqin
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, D. C., United States of America.
authors.forename: Jonathan A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Coddington
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D004777:Environment; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010802:Phylogeny; D013112:Spiders / Q000145:classification