title: Assessing the potential spread and maintenance of foot-and-mouth disease virus infection in wild ungulates: general principles and application to a specific scenario in Thrace.
abstract: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), due to infection with serotype O virus, occurred in wild boar and within eleven outbreaks in domestic livestock in the south-east of Bulgaria, Thrace region, in 2011. Hence, the issue of the potential for the spread and maintenance of FMD virus (FMDV) infection in a population of wild ungulates became important. This assessment focused on the spread and maintenance of FMDV infection within a hypothetical wild boar and deer population in an environment, which is characterized by a climate transitional between Mediterranean and continental and variable wildlife population densities. The assessment was based on three aspects: (i) a systematic review of the literature focusing on experimental infection studies to identify the parameters describing the duration of FMDV infection in deer and wild boar, as well as observational studies assessing the occurrence of FMDV infection in wild deer and wild boar populations, (ii) prevalence survey data of wild boar and deer in Bulgaria and Turkey and (iii) an epidemiological model, simulating the host-to-host spread of FMDV infections. It is concluded, based on all three aspects, that the wildlife population in Thrace, and so wildlife populations in similar ecological settings, are probably not able to maintain FMD in the long term in the absence of FMDV infection in the domestic host population. However, limited spread of FMDV infection in time and space in the wildlife populations can occur. If there is a continued cross-over of FMDV between domestic and wildlife populations or a higher population density, virus circulation may be prolonged.
authors.affiliation: European Food Safety Authority, Parma, Italy.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Dhollander
authors.affiliation: National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Kalvehave, Denmark.
authors.forename: G J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Belsham
authors.affiliation: UFZ, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research Leipzig/Halle, Leipzig, Germany.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lange
authors.affiliation: European Food Safety Authority, Parma, Italy.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Willgert
authors.affiliation: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Alexandrov
authors.affiliation: Foot and Mouth Disease Institute, Athens, Greece.
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Chondrokouki
authors.affiliation: Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Greifswald-Insel Riems, Germany.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Depner
authors.affiliation: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Khomenko
authors.affiliation: Foot and Mouth Disease Institute, Ankara, Turkey.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Özyörük
authors.affiliation: Colorado State University, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Salman
authors.affiliation: UFZ, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research Leipzig/Halle, Leipzig, Germany.
authors.forename: H H
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7670-2231
authors.initials: HH
authors.lastname: Thulke
authors.affiliation: National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Kalvehave, Denmark.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Bøtner
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000835:Animals, Wild / Q000821:virology; D002031:Bulgaria / Q000453:epidemiology; D003670:Deer / Q000821:virology; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000662:veterinary*; D005536:Foot-and-Mouth Disease / Q000097:blood / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000821:virology; D029544:Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D011156:Population Density; D034421:Sus scrofa / Q000821:virology; D014421:Turkey / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: epidemiological model; foot-and-mouth disease; systematic literature review; wild boar