title: [An analysis of relevant factors of early death in acute paraquat poisoning].
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine the clinical indicators of early death (within 72 hours) in patients with acute paraquat poisoning.
  
  
  METHODS
  The data of 93 acute paraquat poisoning patients admitted to emergency intensive care unit (EICU) of the First Hospital of China Medical University were retrospectively analyzed. The patients were divided into two groups according to whether they died within 72 hours or not. The gender, age, poison dose, paraquat concentration in urine, reduction of paraquat amount in urine after each hemoperfusion, and the worst value of white blood cell (WBC) count, lymphocytes count, arterial blood gas analysis, blood K⁺, Na⁺, Cl⁻, and serum amylase, serum lipase, serum total bilirubin, troponin I, creatine kinase (CK), blood urea nitrogen, serum creatinine within 24 hours after poisoning were compared. Spearman correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation between paraquat concentration in urine and the dose of paraquat. The predictive value of each indicator at death in early stage of poisoning was analyzed with receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Nineteen patients in the group of those died in early stage of poisoning (within 72 hours) resulted in a mortality rate of 20.4%. Compared with non-early death group, in early death group, the value of poison dose (133.4 ± 108.8 mL vs. 58.6 ± 40.0 mL, t=3.145, P=0.002), paraquat concentration in urine [16.34 (11.87, 96.76) mg/L vs. 4.46 (1.21, 12.78) mg/L, Z=-3.422, P=0.001], WBC (22.63 ± 9.72 × 10⁹/L vs. 14.95 ± 8.39 × 10⁹/L, t=3.446, P=0.001), blood lactate [Lac: 6.7 (2.2, 12.1) mmol/L vs. 1.9 (1.1, 3.4) mmol/L, Z=-3.294, P=0.001] were significantly higher, and the reduction rate of paraquat concentration in urine after first perfusion [(38.4 ± 15.63)% vs. (67.59 ± 27.87)%, t=2.945, P=0.004] and arterial partial pressure of carbon dioxide (PaCO₂: 28.7 ± 9.3 mmHg vs. 34.8 ± 6.7 mmHg, t=-3.245, P=0.002) were significantly lowered. There was no significant difference between two groups in other indexes. Poison dose and paraquat concentration in urine showed significantly positive correlation (r=0.450, P<0.001). ROC curve showed that the predictive value of paraquat concentration in urine, WBC, and Lac in early death were significant [area under the ROC curve (AUC) of paraquat concentrations in urine was 0.806, 95% confidence interval (95%CI) 0.699-0.913, the cut-off value was 11.64 mg/L, with sensitivity 84.6%, specificity 71.4%; AUC of WBC was 0.734, 95%CI 0.569-0.899, the cut-off value was 15.94×10(9)/L with sensitivity 69.2%, specificity 76.8%; AUC of Lac was 0.729, 95%CI 0.568-0.891, the cut-off value was 1.95 mmol/L with sensitivity 84.6%, specificity 42.9%].
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Paraquat concentrations in urine, WBC, Lac, poison dose and PaCO2 were the risk factors of the early death of the acute paraquat poisoning. The research suggests that paraquat concentration in urine, WBC and Lac are valuable in predicting early death of the patients.
authors.affiliation: Department of Emergency, the First Hospital of China Medical University, Shenyang 110001, Liaoning, China. Corresponding author: Liu Zhi, Email: liuzhicmu@163.com.
authors.forename: Quan
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Cai
authors.forename: Zhi
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Liu
mesh_terms: D000208:Acute Disease; D019540:Area Under Curve; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D010269:Paraquat / Q000506:poisoning*; D011041:Poisoning / Q000401:mortality*; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors
chemical_list: D010269:Paraquat