title: Predicting indoor heat exposure risk during extreme heat events.
abstract: Increased heat-related morbidity and mortality are expected direct consequences of global warming. In the developed world, most fatal heat exposures occur in the indoor home environment, yet little is known of the correspondence between outdoor and indoor heat. Here we show how summertime indoor heat and humidity measurements from 285 low- and middle-income New York City homes vary as a function of concurrent local outdoor conditions. Indoor temperatures and heat index levels were both found to have strong positive linear associations with their outdoor counterparts; however, among the sampled homes a broad range of indoor conditions manifested for the same outdoor conditions. Using these models, we simulated indoor conditions for two extreme events: the 10-day 2006 NYC heat wave and a 9-day event analogous to the more extreme 2003 Paris heat wave. These simulations indicate that many homes in New York City would experience dangerously high indoor heat index levels during extreme heat events. These findings also suggest that increasing numbers of NYC low- and middle-income households will be exposed to heat index conditions above important thresholds should the severity of heat waves increase with global climate change. The study highlights the urgent need for improved indoor temperature and humidity management.
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA. Electronic address: aquinn@columbia.edu.
authors.forename: Ashlinn
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Quinn
authors.affiliation: Department of Geographical and Sustainability Sciences, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242, USA. Electronic address: james-tamerius@uiowa.edu.
authors.forename: James D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Tamerius
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA. Electronic address: mp2217@columbia.edu.
authors.forename: Matthew
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Perzanowski
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA. Electronic address: jsj4@columbia.edu.
authors.forename: Judith S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Jacobson
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA. Electronic address: ifg2@columbia.edu.
authors.forename: Inge
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Goldstein
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA. Electronic address: la181@columbia.edu.
authors.forename: Luis
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Acosta
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY 10032, USA. Electronic address: jls106@columbia.edu.
authors.forename: Jeffrey
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Shaman
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D055874:Extreme Heat; D006801:Humans; D009519:New York City; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D014504:Urban Health
keywords: Climate change; Heat index; Heat waves; Indoor environment; New York City; Residences