title: Estimation of the serial interval of pertussis in Dutch households.
abstract: Increasing incidence has led to the re-appearance of pertussis as a public health problem in developed countries. Pertussis infection is usually mild in vaccinated children and adults, but it can be fatal in infants who are too young for effective vaccination (≤3 months). Tailoring of control strategies to prevent infection of the infant hinges on the availability of estimates of key epidemiological quantities. Here we estimate the serial interval of pertussis, i.e., the time between symptoms onset in a case and its infector, using data from a household-based study carried out in the Netherlands in 2007-2009. We use statistical methodology to tie infected persons to probable infector persons, and obtain statistically supported stratifications of the data by person-type (infant, mother, father, sibling). The analyses show that the mean serial interval is 20 days (95% CI: 16-23 days) when the mother is the infector of the infant, and 28 days (95% CI: 23-33 days) when the infector is the father or a sibling. These time frames offer opportunities for early mitigation of the consequences of infection of an infant once a case has been detected in a household. If preventive measures such as social distancing or antimicrobial treatment are taken promptly they could decrease the probability of infection of the infant.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Dennis E
authors.initials: DE
authors.lastname: Te Beest
authors.affiliation: University of Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Donna
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Henderson
authors.affiliation: Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Nicoline A T
authors.initials: NA
authors.lastname: van der Maas
authors.affiliation: Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Sabine C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: de Greeff
authors.affiliation: Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Jacco
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wallinga
authors.affiliation: Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Frits R
authors.initials: FR
authors.lastname: Mooi
authors.affiliation: Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, The Netherlands. Electronic address: michiel.van.boven@rivm.nl.
authors.forename: Michiel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: van Boven
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D002353:Carrier State / Q000097:blood / Q000382:microbiology / Q000635:transmission*; D018890:Chemoprevention / Q000191:economics / Q000379:methods; D005192:Family Health / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D017589:Immunization Programs / Q000191:economics / Q000592:standards; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D055256:Infectious Disease Incubation Period; D018445:Infectious Disease Transmission, Vertical / Q000191:economics / Q000517:prevention & control*; D008954:Models, Biological; D009035:Mothers / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D009426:Netherlands / Q000453:epidemiology; D010567:Pertussis Vaccine / Q000008:administration & dosage* / Q000191:economics / Q000592:standards; D011247:Pregnancy; D037841:Pregnant People; D014917:Whooping Cough / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission*
chemical_list: D010567:Pertussis Vaccine
keywords: Expectation–Maximization; Household transmission; Maternal vaccination; Pertussis; Serial interval