title: Better forecasts of range dynamics using genetic data.
abstract: The spatiotemporal response of species to past global change must be understood for adaptive management and to make useful predictions. Characteristics of past population dynamics are imprinted in genes, yet these molecular 'log books' are just beginning to be used to improve forecasts of biotic responses to climate change. This is despite there now being robust quantitative frameworks to incorporate such information. A tighter integration of genetic data into models of species range dynamics should lead to more robust and validated predictions of the response of demographic and evolutionary processes to large-scale environmental change. The use of these multidisciplinary methods will help conservation scientists to better connect theory to the on-ground design and implementation of effective measures to protect biodiversity.
authors.affiliation: The Environment Institute, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia. Electronic address: damien.fordham@adelaide.edu.au.
authors.forename: Damien A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Fordham
authors.affiliation: The Environment Institute, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, The University of Adelaide, South Australia 5005, Australia.
authors.forename: Barry W
authors.initials: BW
authors.lastname: Brook
authors.affiliation: Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200, Australia.
authors.forename: Craig
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Moritz
authors.affiliation: Center for Macroecology, Evolution, and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, DK-2100 Copenhagen Ø, Denmark.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Nogués-Bravo
mesh_terms: D044822:Biodiversity; D057231:Climate Change; D030541:Databases, Genetic; D017753:Ecosystem; D008954:Models, Biological; D058974:Phylogeography
keywords: ancient DNA; climate change; extinction; metapopulation; phylogeography; quaternary; species distribution model; validation