title: Modeling scenarios for the end of AIDS.
abstract: At the end of 2012, 3 decades after the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was first identified, neither a cure nor a fully preventive vaccine was available. Despite multiple efforts, the epidemic remains an exceptional public health challenge. At the end of 2012, it was estimated that, globally, 35 million people were living with HIV, 2.3 million had become newly infected, and 1.6 million had died from AIDS-related causes. Despite substantial prevention efforts and increases in the number of individuals on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), the epidemic burden continues to be high. Here, we provide a brief overview of the epidemiology of HIV transmission, the work that has been done to date regarding HIV modeling in different settings around the world, and how to finance the response to the HIV epidemic. In addition, we suggest discussion topics on how to move forward with the prevention agenda and highlight the role of treatment as prevention (TasP) in curbing the epidemic.
authors.affiliation: British Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, Canada.
authors.forename: Viviane D
authors.initials: VD
authors.lastname: Lima
authors.affiliation: University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, NC.
authors.forename: Harsha
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Thirumurthy
authors.affiliation: University of California, San Francisco.
authors.forename: James G
authors.initials: JG
authors.lastname: Kahn
authors.affiliation: AIDS Healthcare Foundation, Mexico City, DF.
authors.forename: Jorge
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Saavedra
authors.affiliation: Cayetano Heredia University, Peru, Miraflores, Lima.
authors.forename: Carlos F
authors.initials: CF
authors.lastname: Cárceres
authors.affiliation: Centre for International Governance Innovation, Waterloo, ON, Canada.
authors.forename: Alan
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Whiteside
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000517:prevention & control*; D023241:Antiretroviral Therapy, Highly Active; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000188:drug therapy*; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical
keywords: HIV epidemic; TasP; mathematical models; prevention; treatment as prevention