title: Evaluating the impact of environmental temperature on global highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry.
abstract: The emergence and spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A virus subtype H5N1 in Asia, Europe and Africa has had an enormously socioeconomic impact and presents an important threat to human health because of its efficient animal-to-human transmission. Many factors contribute to the occurrence and transmission of HPAI H5N1 virus, but the role of environmental temperature remains poorly understood. Based on an approach of integrating a Bayesian Cox proportional hazards model and a Besag-York-Mollié (BYM) model, we examined the specific impact of environmental temperature on HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry around the globe during the period from 1 December 2003 to 31 December 2009. The results showed that higher environmental temperature was a significant risk factor for earlier occurrence of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry, especially for a temperature of 25 °C. Its impact varied with epidemic waves (EWs), and the magnitude of the impact tended to increase over EWs.
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China. epistat@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Zhijie
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Geographic Information and Spatial Analysis, Department of Geography, Faculty of Arts and Science, Queen's University, 99 University Avenue, Kingston, ON K7L 3N6, Canada. chendm@queensu.ca.
authors.forename: Dongmei
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Community Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, University of Ottawa, 451 Smyth Road, Ottawa, ON K1H 8M5, Canada. ychen@uottawa.ca.
authors.forename: Yue
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China. booew@163.com.
authors.forename: Bo
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China. huy@lreis.ac.cn.
authors.forename: Yi
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hu
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China. agao1224@163.com.
authors.forename: Jie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Gao
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China. 1039021808@qq.com.
authors.forename: Liqian
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China. mmssddss@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Rui
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Department of Microbiology and Health, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China. xiongchenglong@126.com.
authors.forename: Chenglong
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Xiong
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D053124:Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype / Q000472:pathogenicity*; D005585:Influenza in Birds / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011200:Poultry / Q000382:microbiology*; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012307:Risk Factors; D013696:Temperature