title: Common garden comparison of the leaf-out phenology of woody species from different native climates, combined with herbarium records, forecasts long-term change.
abstract: A well-timed phenology is essential for plant growth and reproduction, but species-specific phenological strategies are still poorly understood. Here, we use a common garden approach to compare biannual leaf-out data for 495 woody species growing outdoors in Munich, 90% of them not native to that climate regime. For three species, data were augmented by herbarium dates for 140-year-long time series. We further meta-analysed 107 temperate-zone woody species in which leaf-out cues have been studied, half of them also monitored here. Southern climate-adapted species flushed significantly later than natives, and photoperiod- and chilling- sensitive species all flushed late. The herbarium method revealed the extent of species-specific climate tracking. Our results forecast that: (1) a northward expansion of southern species due to climate warming will increase the number of late flushers in the north, counteracting documented and expected flushing time advances; and (2) photoperiod- and chilling-sensitive woody species cannot rapidly track climate warming.
authors.affiliation: Systematic Botany and Mycology, Department of Biology, University of Munich (LMU), 80638, Munich, Germany.
authors.forename: Constantin M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Zohner
authors.forename: Susanne S
authors.initials: SS
authors.lastname: Renner
mesh_terms: D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D005858:Germany; D018515:Plant Leaves / Q000254:growth & development; D012621:Seasons; D013045:Species Specificity; D014197:Trees / Q000502:physiology*
keywords: Chilling; forcing; leaf-out; phenology; photoperiod; temperature