title: A chronic kidney disease risk score to determine tenofovir safety in a prospective cohort of HIV-positive male veterans.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate is a widely used antiretroviral for HIV infection that has been associated with an increased risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Our objective was to derive a scoring system to predict 5-year risk of developing CKD in HIV-infected individuals and to estimate difference in risk associated with tenofovir use.
  
  
  METHODS
  We evaluated time to first occurrence of CKD (estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)) in 21 590 HIV-infected men from the Veterans Health Administration initiating antiretroviral therapy from 1997 to 2010.
  
  
  METHODS
  We developed a point-based score using multivariable Cox regression models. Median follow-up was 6.3 years, during which 2059 CKD events occurred.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Dominant contributors to the CKD risk score were traditional kidney risk factors (age, glucose, SBP, hypertension, triglycerides, proteinuria); CD4(+) cell count was also a component, but not HIV RNA. The overall 5-year event rate was 7.7% in tenofovir users and 3.8% in nonusers [overall adjusted hazard ratio 2.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.8-2.2]. There was a progressive increase in 5-year CKD risk, ranging from less than 1% (zero points) to 16% (≥9 points) in nonusers of tenofovir, and from 1.4 to 21.4% among tenofovir users. The estimated number-needed-to-harm (NNH) for tenofovir use ranged from 108 for those with zero points to 20 for persons with at least nine points. Among tenofovir users with at least 1 year exposure, NNH ranged from 68 (zero points) to five (≥9 points).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The CKD risk score can be used to predict an HIV-infected individual's absolute risk of developing CKD over 5 years and may facilitate clinical decision-making around tenofovir use.
authors.affiliation: aDepartment of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco bSan Francisco VA Medical Center cPositive Health Program, San Francisco General Hospital, San Francisco, California dSchool of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
authors.forename: Rebecca
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Scherzer
authors.forename: Monica
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Gandhi
authors.forename: Michelle M
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Estrella
authors.forename: Phyllis C
authors.initials: PC
authors.lastname: Tien
authors.forename: Steven G
authors.initials: SG
authors.lastname: Deeks
authors.forename: Carl
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Grunfeld
authors.forename: Carmen A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Peralta
authors.forename: Michael G
authors.initials: MG
authors.lastname: Shlipak
mesh_terms: D000225:Adenine / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000031:analogs & derivatives* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D000328:Adult; D019380:Anti-HIV Agents / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D015331:Cohort Studies; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000150:complications* / Q000188:drug therapy*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D063065:Organophosphonates / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D011446:Prospective Studies; D051436:Renal Insufficiency, Chronic / Q000139:chemically induced*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D000068698:Tenofovir; D014728:Veterans
chemical_list: D019380:Anti-HIV Agents; D063065:Organophosphonates; D000068698:Tenofovir; D000225:Adenine