title: Quantitative assessment of the risk of introduction of bovine viral diarrhea virus in Danish dairy herds.
abstract: A quantitative risk assessment was carried out to estimate the likelihood of introducing bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) in Danish dairy herds per year and per trimester, respectively. The present study gives important information on the impact of risk mitigation measures and sources of uncertainty due to lack of data. As suggested in the Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS Agreement), the OIE Terrestrial Animal Health Code was followed for a transparent science-based risk assessment. Data from 2010 on imports of live cattle, semen, and embryos, exports of live cattle, as well as use of vaccines were analyzed. Information regarding the application of biosecurity measures, by veterinarians and hoof trimmers practicing in Denmark and in other countries, was obtained by contacting several stakeholders, public institutions and experts. Stochastic scenario trees were made to evaluate the importance of the various BVDV introduction routes. With the current surveillance system, the risk of BVDV introduction was estimated to one or more introductions within a median of nine years (3-59). However, if all imported animals were tested and hoof trimmers always disinfected the tools used abroad, the risk could be reduced to one or more introductions within 33 years (8-200). Results of this study can be used to improve measures of BVD surveillance and prophylaxis in Danish dairy herds.
authors.affiliation: Section for Epidemiology, National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Bülowsvej 27, DK-1870 Frederiksberg C, Denmark. Electronic address: alefo@vet.dtu.dk.
authors.forename: Alessandro
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Foddai
authors.affiliation: Section for Epidemiology, National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Bülowsvej 27, DK-1870 Frederiksberg C, Denmark.
authors.forename: Anette
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Boklund
authors.affiliation: Statistics and Data Analysis Section, Department of Applied Mathematics and Computer Science, Technical University of Denmark, Matematiktorvet, DK-2800 Lyngby, Denmark.
authors.forename: Anders
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Stockmarr
authors.affiliation: Knowledge Centre for Agriculture, Cattle, Danish Cattle Federation, Agro Food Park 15, Skejby, 8200 Aarhus N, Denmark.
authors.forename: Kaspar
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Krogh
authors.affiliation: Section for Epidemiology, National Veterinary Institute, Technical University of Denmark, Bülowsvej 27, DK-1870 Frederiksberg C, Denmark.
authors.forename: Claes
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Enøe
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001912:Bovine Virus Diarrhea-Mucosal Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000821:virology; D002417:Cattle; D003612:Dairying / Q000379:methods; D003718:Denmark / Q000453:epidemiology; D001908:Diarrhea Viruses, Bovine Viral / Q000502:physiology*; D062665:Epidemiological Monitoring; D018570:Risk Assessment
keywords: BVDV; Risk assessment; Scenario tree model; Stochastic simulations