title: Avoided heat-related mortality through climate adaptation strategies in three US cities.
abstract: Heat-related mortality in US cities is expected to more than double by the mid-to-late 21st century. Rising heat exposure in cities is projected to result from: 1) climate forcings from changing global atmospheric composition; and 2) local land surface characteristics responsible for the urban heat island effect. The extent to which heat management strategies designed to lessen the urban heat island effect could offset future heat-related mortality remains unexplored in the literature. Using coupled global and regional climate models with a human health effects model, we estimate changes in the number of heat-related deaths in 2050 resulting from modifications to vegetative cover and surface albedo across three climatically and demographically diverse US metropolitan areas: Atlanta, Georgia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Phoenix, Arizona. Employing separate health impact functions for average warm season and heat wave conditions in 2050, we find combinations of vegetation and albedo enhancement to offset projected increases in heat-related mortality by 40 to 99% across the three metropolitan regions. These results demonstrate the potential for extensive land surface changes in cities to provide adaptive benefits to urban populations at risk for rising heat exposure with climate change.
authors: School of City and Regional Planning, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.
authors: Brian
authors: B
authors: Stone
authors: Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America.
authors: Jason
authors: J
authors: Vargo
authors: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.
authors: Peng
authors: P
authors: Liu
authors: School of City and Regional Planning, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.
authors: Dana
authors: D
authors: Habeeb
authors: Quillen College of Medicine, East Tennessee State University, Johnson City, Tennessee, United States of America.
authors: Anthony
authors: A
authors: DeLucia
authors: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.
authors: Marcus
authors: M
authors: Trail
authors: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.
authors: Yongtao
authors: Y
authors: Hu
authors: School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia, United States of America.
authors: Armistead
authors: A
authors: Russell
mesh_terms: D001272:Atmosphere; D002947:Cities / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D057231:Climate Change / Q000401:mortality*; D006358:Hot Temperature; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012621:Seasons; D014481:United States