title: Estimating the number of human cases of ceftiofur-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Heidelberg in Québec and Ontario, Canada.
abstract: A stochastic model was used to estimate the number of human cases of ceftiofur-resistant Salmonella enterica serovar Heidelberg in Québec and Ontario attributable to chicken consumption and excess cases attributable to human prior antimicrobial consumption. The annual mean incidence of S. Heidelberg (Québec/Ontario) decreased from 70/62 cases per 100 000 in 2004 to 29/30 cases per 100 000 in 2007 (Québec)/2008 (Ontario), increasing to 59/45 cases per 100 000 in 2011. The annual mean incidence of ceftiofur-resistant cases from chicken decreased from 8/7 cases per 100 000 in 2004 to 1/1 cases per 100 000 in 2007 (Québec)/2008 (Ontario), increasing to 7/5 cases per 100 000 in 2011. The annual mean total number of excess ceftiofur-resistant cases from chicken attributable to human prior antimicrobial consumption (Québec/Ontario) decreased from 71/123 in 2004 to 6/24 in 2007 (Québec)/2008 (Ontario), but increased to 62/91 in 2011. This model will support future work to determine the increased severity, mortality and healthcare costs for ceftiofur-resistant Salmonella Heidelberg infections. These results provide a basis for the evaluation of future public health interventions to address antimicrobial resistance.
authors: Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph.
authors: Simon J G
authors: SJ
authors: Otto
authors: Laboratory for Foodborne Zoonoses, Public Health Agency of Canada.
authors: Carolee A
authors: CA
authors: Carson
authors: Centre for Food-borne, Environmental and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
authors: Rita L
authors: RL
authors: Finley
authors: Centre for Food-borne, Environmental and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Public Health Agency of Canada, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
authors: M Kate
authors: MK
authors: Thomas
authors: Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph Laboratory for Foodborne Zoonoses, Public Health Agency of Canada.
authors: Richard J
authors: RJ
authors: Reid-Smith
authors: Department of Population Medicine, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph.
authors: Scott A
authors: SA
authors: McEwen
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents / Q000494:pharmacology* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D002511:Cephalosporins / Q000494:pharmacology*; D002645:Chickens; D024881:Drug Resistance, Bacterial; D005517:Foodborne Diseases; D006801:Humans; D008460:Meat; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009864:Ontario / Q000453:epidemiology; D011792:Quebec / Q000453:epidemiology; D012480:Salmonella Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D019779:Salmonella enterica / Q000187:drug effects*; D013269:Stochastic Processes
chemical_list: D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents; D002511:Cephalosporins; C053503:ceftiofur
keywords: Salmonella Heidelberg; antimicrobial resistance; ceftiofur; etiologic fraction; stochastic model