title: The contagious nature of imprisonment: an agent-based model to explain racial disparities in incarceration rates.
abstract: We build an agent-based model of incarceration based on the susceptible-infected-suspectible (SIS) model of infectious disease propagation. Our central hypothesis is that the observed racial disparities in incarceration rates between Black and White Americans can be explained as the result of differential sentencing between the two demographic groups. We demonstrate that if incarceration can be spread through a social influence network, then even relatively small differences in sentencing can result in large disparities in incarceration rates. Controlling for effects of transmissibility, susceptibility and influence network structure, our model reproduces the observed large disparities in incarceration rates given the differences in sentence lengths for White and Black drug offenders in the USA without extensive parameter tuning. We further establish the suitability of the SIS model as applied to incarceration by demonstrating that the observed structural patterns of recidivism are an emergent property of the model. In fact, our model shows a remarkably close correspondence with California incarceration data. This work advances efforts to combine the theories and methods of epidemiology and criminology.
authors: Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA kristianlum@gmail.com.
authors: Kristian
authors: K
authors: Lum
authors: Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA.
authors: Samarth
authors: S
authors: Swarup
authors: Network Dynamics and Simulation Science Laboratory, Virginia Bioinformatics Institute, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA.
authors: Stephen
authors: S
authors: Eubank
authors: Department of Sociology, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA, USA.
authors: James
authors: J
authors: Hawdon
mesh_terms: D001741:Black or African American; D002140:California; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003418:Criminology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011329:Prisoners / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D011330:Prisons; D011336:Probability; D012307:Risk Factors; D044465:White People
keywords: agent-based model; epidemiological criminology; incarceration; influence network; simulation; susceptible–infected–susceptible model