title: Spatial analysis of targeted surveillance for screw-worm fly (Chrysomya bezziana or Cochliomyia hominivorax) in Australia.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To assess Australia's targeted surveillance to detect an incursion of screw-worm fly (Chrysomya bezziana).
  
  
  METHODS
  A multi-criteria analysis shell was used to combine data on potential pathways of entry, availability of host species and environmental factors affecting survival of screw-worm fly in order to map spatial variation in the relative likelihood of a screw-worm fly incursion into Australia. Australia's current screw-worm fly surveillance activities were reviewed to determine whether they are located in the areas of highest likelihood of an incursion.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Under average environmental conditions, an incursion of screw-worm fly in Australia is relatively more likely to occur along the north coast, down the eastern seaboard or in the south-east. Cold winter temperatures would limit the environmental suitability for screw-worm fly survival to the north and north-east coast and adjacent inland areas. Australia's current targeted surveillance conducted by the Northern Australia Quarantine Strategy program of the Australian Department of Agriculture (adult screw-worm fly trapping and myiasis sampling) correlated well with areas considered to have a high relative likelihood of an incursion of screw-worm fly. Adult fly trapping conducted at sea ports was less well correlated.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Changes to surveillance at sea ports are proposed to better target areas considered to have a higher relative likelihood of screw-worm fly incursion. These include increasing the trapping intensity along the north and north-east coasts and shifting surveillance activity from the west coast to the south-east.
authors: Department of Agriculture, GPO Box 858, Canberra, Australia Capital Territory, 2601, Australia.
authors: Sn
authors: S
authors: Fruean
authors: Ij
authors: I
authors: East
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001315:Australia / Q000453:epidemiology; D002980:Climate; D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000379:methods; D004175:Diptera / Q000502:physiology*; D062305:Geographic Mapping; D007303:Insect Vectors; D011159:Population Surveillance / Q000379:methods*; D012610:Screw Worm Infection / Q000517:prevention & control; D062206:Spatial Analysis; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires
keywords: Australia; cattle; screw-worm fly; spatial analysis; surveillance