title: Increasing eutrophication in the coastal seas of China from 1970 to 2050.
abstract: We analyzed the potential for eutrophication in major seas around China: the Bohai Gulf, Yellow Sea and South China Sea. We model the riverine inputs of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and silica (Si) to coastal seas from 1970 to 2050. Between 1970 and 2000 dissolved N and P inputs to the three seas increased by a factor of 2-5. In contrast, inputs of particulate N and P and dissolved Si, decreased due to damming of rivers. Between 2000 and 2050, the total N and P inputs increase further by 30-200%. Sewage is the dominant source of dissolved N and P in the Bohai Gulf, while agriculture is the primary source in the other seas. In the future, the ratios of Si to N and P decrease, which increases the risk of harmful algal blooms. Sewage treatment may reduce this risk in the Bohai Gulf, and agricultural management in the other seas.
authors: Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands. Electronic address: maryna.strokal@wur.nl.
authors: Maryna
authors: M
authors: Strokal
authors: Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors: He
authors: H
authors: Yang
authors: Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands.
authors: Yinchen
authors: Y
authors: Zhang
authors: Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands; School of Science, Faculty of Management, Science & Technology, Open University of the Netherland, Valkenburgerweg 177, 6419 AT Heerlen, The Netherlands.
authors: Carolien
authors: C
authors: Kroeze
authors: Peking University, University Town, Nanshan District, Shenzhen 518055, PR China.
authors: Lili
authors: L
authors: Li
authors: Peking University, University Town, Nanshan District, Shenzhen 518055, PR China.
authors: Shengji
authors: S
authors: Luan
authors: Peking University, University Town, Nanshan District, Shenzhen 518055, PR China.
authors: Huanzhi
authors: H
authors: Wang
authors: Peking University, University Town, Nanshan District, Shenzhen 518055, PR China.
authors: Shunshun
authors: S
authors: Yang
authors: Peking University, University Town, Nanshan District, Shenzhen 518055, PR China.
authors: Yisheng
authors: Y
authors: Zhang
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D002681:China; D004785:Environmental Pollutants; D005068:Eutrophication; D005843:Geography; D009584:Nitrogen / Q000032:analysis* / Q000737:chemistry; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D010758:Phosphorus / Q000032:analysis* / Q000737:chemistry; D045483:Rivers; D012722:Sewage; D012822:Silicon Dioxide / Q000032:analysis* / Q000737:chemistry; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D004785:Environmental Pollutants; D012722:Sewage; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical; D010758:Phosphorus; D012822:Silicon Dioxide; D009584:Nitrogen
keywords: China; Eutrophication; N:P:Si ratio modeling; Riverine inputs of N, P and Si; Seas