title: Targeting global protected area expansion for imperiled biodiversity.
abstract: Governments have agreed to expand the global protected area network from 13% to 17% of the world's land surface by 2020 (Aichi target 11) and to prevent the further loss of known threatened species (Aichi target 12). These targets are interdependent, as protected areas can stem biodiversity loss when strategically located and effectively managed. However, the global protected area estate is currently biased toward locations that are cheap to protect and away from important areas for biodiversity. Here we use data on the distribution of protected areas and threatened terrestrial birds, mammals, and amphibians to assess current and possible future coverage of these species under the convention. We discover that 17% of the 4,118 threatened vertebrates are not found in a single protected area and that fully 85% are not adequately covered (i.e., to a level consistent with their likely persistence). Using systematic conservation planning, we show that expanding protected areas to reach 17% coverage by protecting the cheapest land, even if ecoregionally representative, would increase the number of threatened vertebrates covered by only 6%. However, the nonlinear relationship between the cost of acquiring land and species coverage means that fivefold more threatened vertebrates could be adequately covered for only 1.5 times the cost of the cheapest solution, if cost efficiency and threatened vertebrates are both incorporated into protected area decision making. These results are robust to known errors in the vertebrate range maps. The Convention on Biological Diversity targets may stimulate major expansion of the global protected area estate. If this expansion is to secure a future for imperiled species, new protected areas must be sited more strategically than is presently the case.
authors: Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science and the School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Cairns, Australia; School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.
authors: Oscar
authors: O
authors: Venter
authors: School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.
authors: Richard A
authors: RA
authors: Fuller
authors: School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia; Global Conservation Program, Wildlife Conservation Society, New York, New York, United States of America.
authors: Daniel B
authors: DB
authors: Segan
authors: Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Ecosystem Sciences, EcoSci Precinct, Dutton Pk, Australia.
authors: Josie
authors: J
authors: Carwardine
authors: International Union for Conservation of Nature, Gland, Switzerland; World Agroforestry Center, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines; School of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia.
authors: Thomas
authors: T
authors: Brooks
authors: BirdLife International, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
authors: Stuart H M
authors: SH
authors: Butchart
authors: Global Mammal Assessment Program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy.
authors: Moreno
authors: M
authors: Di Marco
authors: Department of Biology and Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America.
authors: Takuya
authors: T
authors: Iwamura
authors: School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia; Global Conservation Program, Wildlife Conservation Society, New York, New York, United States of America.
authors: Liana
authors: L
authors: Joseph
authors: Centre for Tropical Water & Aquatic Ecosystem Research, James Cook University, Cairns, Australia.
authors: Damien
authors: D
authors: O'Grady
authors: School of Biological Sciences, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia; Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, United Kingdom.
authors: Hugh P
authors: HP
authors: Possingham
authors: Global Mammal Assessment Program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, Rome, Italy.
authors: Carlo
authors: C
authors: Rondinini
authors: Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, School of Anthropology and Conservation, University of Kent, Canterbury, United Kingdom.
authors: Robert J
authors: RJ
authors: Smith
authors: Centre for Tropical Environmental and Sustainability Science and the School of Marine and Tropical Biology, James Cook University, Cairns, Australia.
authors: Michelle
authors: M
authors: Venter
authors: Global Conservation Program, Wildlife Conservation Society, New York, New York, United States of America; School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia.
authors: James E M
authors: JE
authors: Watson
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D056727:Endangered Species / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D038622:Internationality; D014714:Vertebrates