title: The use of ecological niche modeling to infer potential risk areas of snakebite in the Mexican state of Veracruz.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Many authors have claimed that snakebite risk is associated with human population density, human activities, and snake behavior. Here we analyzed whether environmental suitability of vipers can be used as an indicator of snakebite risk. We tested several hypotheses to explain snakebite incidence, through the construction of models incorporating both environmental suitability and socioeconomic variables in Veracruz, Mexico.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Ecological niche modeling (ENM) was used to estimate potential geographic and ecological distributions of nine viper species' in Veracruz. We calculated the distance to the species' niche centroid (DNC); this distance may be associated with a prediction of abundance. We found significant inverse relationships between snakebites and DNCs of common vipers (Crotalus simus and Bothrops asper), explaining respectively 15% and almost 35% of variation in snakebite incidence. Additionally, DNCs for these two vipers, in combination with marginalization of human populations, accounted for 76% of variation in incidence.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our results suggest that niche modeling and niche-centroid distance approaches can be used to mapping distributions of environmental suitability for venomous snakes; combining this ecological information with socioeconomic factors may help with inferring potential risk areas for snakebites, since hospital data are often biased (especially when incidences are low).
authors: Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America.
authors: Carlos
authors: C
authors: Yañez-Arenas
authors: Biodiversity Institute, University of Kansas, Lawrence, Kansas, United States of America.
authors: A Townsend
authors: AT
authors: Peterson
authors: División de Posgrado, Instituto de Ecología A.C., Xalapa, Veracruz, México.
authors: Pierre
authors: P
authors: Mokondoko
authors: Red de Biología Evolutiva, Instituto de Ecología A.C., Xalapa, Veracruz, México.
authors: Octavio
authors: O
authors: Rojas-Soto
authors: Instituto de Biología. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, México City, México.
authors: Enrique
authors: E
authors: Martínez-Meyer
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D017837:Bothrops / Q000502:physiology*; D017753:Ecosystem; D004782:Environmental Health; D062305:Geographic Mapping; D006802:Human Activities; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008800:Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D008954:Models, Biological; D015995:Prevalence; D012307:Risk Factors; D012909:Snake Bites / Q000453:epidemiology*