title: Conflicts of interest during contact investigations: a game-theoretic analysis.
abstract: The goal of contact tracing is to reduce the likelihood of transmission, particularly to individuals who are at greatest risk for developing complications of infection, as well as identifying individuals who are in need of medical treatment of other interventions. In this paper, we develop a simple mathematical model of contact investigations among a small group of individuals and apply game theory to explore conflicts of interest that may arise in the context of perceived costs of disclosure. Using analytic Kolmogorov equations, we determine whether or not it is possible for individual incentives to drive noncooperation, even though cooperation would yield a better group outcome. We found that if all individuals have a cost of disclosure, then the optimal individual decision is to simply not disclose each other. With further analysis of (1) completely offsetting the costs of disclosure and (2) partially offsetting the costs of disclosure, we found that all individuals disclose all contacts, resulting in a smaller basic reproductive number and an alignment of individual and group optimality. More data are needed to understand decision making during outbreak investigations and what the real and perceived costs are.
authors: Francis I. Proctor Foundation for Research in Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, Box 0412, San Francisco, CA 94143-0412, USA.
authors: Nicolas
authors: 0000-0003-2157-5885
authors: N
authors: Sippl-Swezey
authors: Francis I. Proctor Foundation for Research in Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, Box 0412, San Francisco, CA 94143-0412, USA.
authors: Wayne T
authors: WT
authors: Enanoria
authors: Francis I. Proctor Foundation for Research in Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, Box 0412, San Francisco, CA 94143-0412, USA ; Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, Box 0412, San Francisco, CA 94143-0412, USA ; Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, Box 0412, San Francisco, CA 94143-0412, USA.
authors: Travis C
authors: TC
authors: Porco
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D016265:Conflict of Interest; D016358:Contact Tracing / Q000379:methods*; D003657:Decision Making; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D005716:Game Theory; D006801:Humans; D007239:Infections / Q000635:transmission*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011336:Probability; D011634:Public Health; D012919:Social Behavior; D012984:Software; D014342:Truth Disclosure