title: Rivals in the dark: how competition influences search in decisions under uncertainty.
abstract: In choices between uncertain options, information search can increase the chances of distinguishing good from bad options. However, many choices are made in the presence of other choosers who may seize the better option while one is still engaged in search. How long do (and should) people search before choosing between uncertain options in the presence of such competition? To address this question, we introduce a new experimental paradigm called the competitive sampling game. We use both simulation and empirical data to compare search and choice between competitive and solitary environments. Simulation results show that minimal search is adaptive when one expects competitors to choose quickly or is uncertain about how long competitors will search. Descriptively, we observe that competition drastically reduces information search prior to choice.
authors.affiliation: Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany. Electronic address: phillips@mpib-berlin.mpg.de.
authors.forename: Nathaniel D
authors.initials: ND
authors.lastname: Phillips
authors.affiliation: Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Ralph
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Hertwig
authors.affiliation: The Center for the Study of Rationality, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel.
authors.forename: Yaakov
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Kareev
authors.affiliation: The Center for the Study of Rationality, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem, Israel.
authors.forename: Judith
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Avrahami
mesh_terms: D003163:Competitive Behavior / Q000502:physiology*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003657:Decision Making / Q000502:physiology*; D005106:Exploratory Behavior / Q000502:physiology*; D006801:Humans; D012919:Social Behavior; D035501:Uncertainty
keywords: Competition; Decisions from experience; Decisions under uncertainty; Information search