title: Estimated public health impact of nationwide vaccination of infants with 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) in China.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The goal of this study was to provide a comprehensive analysis of the potential health impact of universal vaccination of infants with the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) in China.
  
  
  METHODS
  A decision-analytic model designed for pneumococcal disease and outcomes of pneumococcal infection was populated with local age-specific incidence and mortality data to estimate the expected health benefits of vaccinating birth cohorts of approximately 16 million infants per year over a 10-year time horizon in China. The model incorporates both the direct impact on vaccinated children and the indirect effect of herd protection on unvaccinated children and adults.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The model predicts that more than 16.2 million cases of pneumococcal disease and 709 411 deaths could be prevented in China over the initial 10-year period following the introduction of the PCV7 vaccine. The majority of these health benefits are due to the indirect effectiveness of the vaccine on the unvaccinated population, resulting in approximately 10.8 million cases prevented and 636 371 lives saved over 10 years.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The results suggest that a policy of universal PCV7 vaccination among infants in China would have a substantial positive public health impact on the population of China.
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai, P.R. China; Shanghai Health Development Research Center, Shanghai, P.R. China.
authors.forename: ShanLian
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hu
authors.affiliation: Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Pfizer Investment Co. Ltd, Shanghai, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Qiang
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Shi
authors.affiliation: Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Pfizer Investment Co. Ltd, Beijing, P.R. China.
authors.forename: Chieh-I
authors.initials: CI
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA.
authors.forename: Ronald
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Caldwell
authors.affiliation: Alliance Life Sciences, Somerset, New Jersey, USA.
authors.forename: Bruce
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Shanghai Health Development Research Center, Shanghai, P.R. China.
authors.forename: LiXia
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Du
authors.affiliation: Shanghai Health Development Research Center, Shanghai, P.R. China.
authors.forename: JiangJiang
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: He
authors.affiliation: Health Economics and Outcomes Research, Pfizer Inc., 500 Arcola Road, Collegeville, PA 19424, USA. Electronic address: Craig.roberts@pfizer.com.
authors.forename: Craig S
authors.initials: CS
authors.lastname: Roberts
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D000069443:Heptavalent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D008875:Middle Aged; D011008:Pneumococcal Infections / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality / Q000517:prevention & control*; D022242:Pneumococcal Vaccines; D014611:Vaccination; D018074:Vaccines, Conjugate; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D000069443:Heptavalent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine; D022242:Pneumococcal Vaccines; D018074:Vaccines, Conjugate
keywords: 7-Valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7); Decision analytic model; Herd effect