title: [Living longer, with more disease and less disability; trends in public health 2000-2030].
abstract: The Dutch Public Health Status and Foresight report 2014 explores the future of public health in the Netherlands, using a trend scenario and four future scenarios. The trend scenario provides projections until 2030, based on the trends over the last decades and assuming the policy stays the same. After many years the unfavourable trends in lifestyle seem to have ended: the percentage of smokers is decreasing and the percentage of people who are overweight is no longer increasing. Life expectancy will continue to increase, but the differences between socioeconomic groups will not become smaller. Demographic changes (rise in the ageing population) and improvements in health care will contribute to an increase in the number of chronically ill which will increase from 5.3 million in 2011 to 7 million in 2030. However, most people with a chronic disease feel healthy, have no disabilities and participate fully in society. Health care expenditures rose from 9.5% of the GDP in 2000 to 14% in 2012. How this growth will continue in the next years is uncertain.
authors.affiliation: Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu, Centrum Gezondheid en Maatschappij, Bilthoven.
authors.forename: Nancy
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Hoeymans
authors.forename: Maartje M
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: Harbers
authors.forename: Henk B M
authors.initials: HB
authors.lastname: Hilderink
mesh_terms: D000375:Aging / Q000502:physiology*; D002908:Chronic Disease / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005544:Forecasting; D017048:Health Care Costs; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy / Q000639:trends; D008019:Life Style; D009426:Netherlands; D011634:Public Health / Q000639:trends*