title: Assessing dengue infection risk in the southern region of Taiwan: implications for control.
abstract: Dengue, one of the most important mosquito-borne diseases, is a major international public health concern. This study aimed to assess potential dengue infection risk from Aedes aegypti in Kaohsiung and the implications for vector control. Here we investigated the impact of dengue transmission on human infection risk using a well-established dengue-mosquito-human transmission dynamics model. A basic reproduction number (R 0)-based probabilistic risk model was also developed to estimate dengue infection risk. Our findings confirm that the effect of biting rate plays a crucial role in shaping R 0 estimates. We demonstrated that there was 50% risk probability for increased dengue incidence rates exceeding 0.5-0.8 wk-1 for temperatures ranging from 26°C to 32°C. We further demonstrated that the weekly increased dengue incidence rate can be decreased to zero if vector control efficiencies reach 30-80% at temperatures of 19-32°C. We conclude that our analysis on dengue infection risk and control implications in Kaohsiung provide crucial information for policy-making on disease control.
authors.affiliation: Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering,National Taiwan University,Taipei,Taiwan,ROC.
authors.forename: C-M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Liao
authors.affiliation: Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering,National Taiwan University,Taipei,Taiwan,ROC.
authors.forename: T-L
authors.initials: TL
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Department of Bioenvironmental Systems Engineering,National Taiwan University,Taipei,Taiwan,ROC.
authors.forename: Y-H
authors.initials: YH
authors.lastname: Cheng
authors.affiliation: Department of Biomedical Science and Environmental Biology,Kaohsiung Medical University,Kaohsiung,Taiwan,ROC.
authors.forename: W-Y
authors.initials: WY
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Institute of Labor, Occupational Safety and Health,Ministry of Labor,New Taipei City,Taiwan,ROC.
authors.forename: N-H
authors.initials: NH
authors.lastname: Hsieh
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health,Chung Shan Medical University,Taichung,Taiwan,ROC.
authors.forename: S-C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Institute of Occupational Medicine and Industrial Hygiene,National Taiwan University,Taipei,Taiwan,ROC.
authors.forename: C-P
authors.initials: CP
authors.lastname: Chio
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000821:virology*; D000818:Animals; D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D003716:Dengue Virus; D058872:Epidemics; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D013624:Taiwan / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: vector control