title: Jurisdictional spillover effects of sprawl on injuries and fatalities.
abstract: There is a considerable literature on the relationship between sprawl and accidents. However, these studies do not account for the spatially correlated effects of sprawl on accidents. In our analysis of 122 jurisdictions in Southeast Michigan, we use a Bayesian spatial autoregressive model to estimate how injuries and fatalities in one jurisdiction are associated with sprawl in that jurisdiction and sprawl in neighboring jurisdictions; we also correct for heteroskedasticity in the data. Using principal component analysis, we create a sprawl index from five underlying land use characteristics. Our results show that the number of injuries and fatalities in a jurisdiction increases with the magnitude of sprawl in neighboring jurisdictions. We believe that this is because more drivers per capita in sprawled jurisdictions traverse similarly sprawled neighboring jurisdictions for daily activities. Furthermore, driving habits attuned to less defensive driving in sprawled jurisdiction are transferred to similarly designed neighboring jurisdictions, contributing to accidents in the latter.
authors.affiliation: Wayne State University, United States. Electronic address: ar7347@wayne.edu.
authors.forename: Rayman
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Mohamed
authors.affiliation: University of Cincinnati, United States.
authors.forename: Rainer
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Vom Hofe
authors.affiliation: Wayne State University, United States.
authors.forename: Sangida
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Mazumder
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000401:mortality / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D001334:Automobile Driving / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D004779:Environment Design / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D008824:Michigan / Q000453:epidemiology; D011156:Population Density; D062206:Spatial Analysis; D013383:Suburban Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D014505:Urban Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D014947:Wounds and Injuries / Q000453:epidemiology*
keywords: Fatalities; Injuries; Spatial autoregressive model; Sprawl