title: Semivarying coefficient models for capture-recapture data: colony size estimation for the little penguin Eudyptula minor.
abstract: To accommodate seasonal effects that change from year to year into models for the size of an open population we consider a time-varying coefficient model. We fit this model to a capture-recapture data set collected on the little penguin Eudyptula minor in south-eastern Australia over a 25 year period using Jolly-Seber type estimators and nonparametric P-spline techniques. The time-varying coefficient model identified strong changes in the seasonal pattern across the years which we further examined using functional data analysis techniques. To evaluate the methodology we also conducted several simulation studies that incorporate seasonal variation.
authors.affiliation: School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of New South Wales, New South Wales 2052, Australia. Electronic address: j.stoklosa@unsw.edu.au.
authors.forename: Jakub
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Stoklosa
authors.affiliation: Research Department, Phillip Island Nature Parks, P.O. Box 97, Cowes, Phillip Island, Victoria 3922, Australia.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Dann
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne, Victoria 3010, Australia.
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Huggins
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D003198:Computer Simulation; D005260:Female; D008297:Male; D055641:Mathematical Concepts; D008954:Models, Biological; D011156:Population Density; D012621:Seasons; D046429:Spheniscidae; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric; D014739:Victoria
keywords: Functional data analysis; Generalized cross validation; Jolly–Seber model; Open population; P-splines; Varying coefficient models