title: Social contacts and the locations in which they occur as risk factors for influenza infection.
abstract: The interaction of human social behaviour and transmission is an intriguing aspect of the life cycle of respiratory viral infections. Although age-specific mixing patterns are often assumed to be the key drivers of the age-specific heterogeneity in transmission, the association between social contacts and biologically confirmed infection has not previously been tested at the individual level. We administered a questionnaire to participants in a longitudinal cohort survey of influenza in which infection was defined by longitudinal paired serology. Using a variety of statistical approaches, we found overwhelming support for the inclusion of individual age in addition to contact variables when explaining odds of infection: the best model not including age explained only 15.7% of the deviance, whereas the best model with age explained 23.6%. However, within age groups, we did observe an association between contacts, locations and infection: median numbers of contacts (or locations) reported by those infected were higher than those from the uninfected group in every age group other than the youngest. Further, we found some support for the retention of location and contact variables in addition to age in our regression models, with excess odds of infection of approximately 10% per additional 10 contacts or one location. These results suggest that, although the relationship between age and incidence of respiratory infection at the level of the individual is not driven by self-reported social contacts, risk within an age group may be.
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Kin O
authors.initials: KO
authors.lastname: Kwok
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Benjamin J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: Cowling
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Vivian W I
authors.initials: VW
authors.lastname: Wei
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: Kendra M
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Health and Life Sciences, Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Institute of Infection and Global Health, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
authors.forename: Jonathan M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Read
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
authors.forename: Justin
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Lessler
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
authors.forename: Derek A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Cummings
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China Centre for Influenza Research, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China.
authors.forename: J S Malik
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Peiris
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK steven.riley@imperial.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Steven
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Riley
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D006723:Hong Kong / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012307:Risk Factors; D012919:Social Behavior; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: contact patterns; influenza; pandemic