title: Predictors of progression to chronic dialysis in survivors of severe acute kidney injury: a competing risk study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Survivors of acute kidney injury are at an increased risk of developing irreversible deterioration in kidney function and in some cases, the need for chronic dialysis. We aimed to determine predictors of chronic dialysis and death among survivors of dialysis-requiring acute kidney injury.
  
  
  METHODS
  We used linked administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, to identify patients who were discharged from hospital after an episode of acute kidney injury requiring dialysis and remained free of further dialysis for at least 90 days after discharge between 1996 and 2009. Follow-up extended until March 31, 2011. The primary outcome was progression to chronic dialysis. Predictors for this outcome were evaluated using cause-specific Cox proportional hazards models, and a competing risk approach was used to calculate absolute risk.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We identified 4 383 patients with acute kidney injury requiring temporary in-hospital dialysis who survived to discharge. After a mean follow-up of 2.4 years, 356 (8%) patients initiated chronic dialysis and 1475 (34%) died. The cumulative risk of chronic dialysis was 13.5% by the Kaplan-Meier method, and 10.3% using a competing risk approach. After accounting for the competing risk of death, previous nephrology consultation (subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) 2.03; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61-2.58), a history of chronic kidney disease (sHR3.86; 95% CI 2.99-4.98), a higher Charlson comorbidity index score (sHR 1.10; 95% CI 1.05-1.15/per unit) and pre-existing hypertension (sHR 1.82; 95% CI 1.28-2.58) were significantly associated with an increased risk of progression to chronic dialysis.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Among survivors of dialysis-requiring acute kidney injury who initially become dialysis independent, the subsequent need for chronic dialysis is predicted by pre-existing kidney disease, hypertension and global comorbidity. This information can identify patients at high risk of progressive kidney disease who may benefit from closer surveillance after cessation of the acute phase of illness.
authors.affiliation: Division of Nephrology, St Michael's Hospital, University of Toronto, 61 Queen Street, 7th floor, M5C 2 T2, ON Toronto, Canada. harelz@smh.ca.
authors.forename: Ziv
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Harel
authors.forename: Chaim M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Bell
authors.forename: Stephanie N
authors.initials: SN
authors.lastname: Dixon
authors.forename: Eric
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: McArthur
authors.forename: Matthew T
authors.initials: MT
authors.lastname: James
authors.forename: Amit X
authors.initials: AX
authors.lastname: Garg
authors.forename: Shai
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Harel
authors.forename: Samuel
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Silver
authors.forename: Ron
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Wald
mesh_terms: D058186:Acute Kidney Injury / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality / Q000628:therapy*; D000368:Aged; D015331:Cohort Studies; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D006435:Renal Dialysis / Q000639:trends*; D051436:Renal Insufficiency, Chronic / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality / Q000628:therapy*; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D017741:Survivors