title: Prediction model for glucose metabolism based on lipid metabolism.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We developed a robust, long-term clinical prediction model to predict conditions leading to early diabetes using laboratory values other than blood glucose and insulin levels. Our model protects against missing data and noise that occur during long-term analysis.
  
  
  METHODS
  RESULTS of a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) were divided into three groups: diabetes, impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), and normal (n = 114, 235, and 325, respectively). For glucose metabolic and lipid metabolic parameters, near 30-day mean values and 10-year integrated values were compared. The relation between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and variations in HbA1c was analyzed in 158 patients. We also constructed a state space model consisting of an observation model (HDL-C and HbA1c) and an internal model (disorders of lipid metabolism and glucose metabolism) and applied this model to 116 cases.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The root mean square error between the observed HbA1c and predicted HbA1c was 0.25.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In the observation model, HDL-C levels were useful for prediction of increases in HbA1c. Even with numerous missing values over time, as occurs in clinical practice, clinically valid predictions can be made using this state space model.
authors.affiliation: Yutaka Hatakeyama, Center of Medical Information Science, Kochi University Medical School, Oko-cho Kohasu, Nankoku, Kochi, Kochi 783-8505, Japan, E-mail: hatake@kochi-u.ac.jp.
authors.forename: Y
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hatakeyama
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Kataoka
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Nakajima
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Watabe
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Fujimoto
authors.forename: Y
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Okuhara
mesh_terms: D001786:Blood Glucose / Q000378:metabolism; D008076:Cholesterol, HDL / Q000097:blood*; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000378:metabolism*; D005951:Glucose Tolerance Test; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin / Q000378:metabolism*; D006801:Humans; D050356:Lipid Metabolism; D008954:Models, Biological; D011379:Prognosis
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose; D008076:Cholesterol, HDL; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin
keywords: Prediction model; diabetes mellitus; particle filter; probability model