title: Rapid increase of scrub typhus: an epidemiology and spatial-temporal cluster analysis in Guangzhou City, Southern China, 2006-2012.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Scrub typhus has been increasingly reported in Southern China, and public health authorities are concerned about its increased incidence. Additionally, little evidence is available on the epidemiology of scrub typhus in Southern China. This study aims to analyze the epidemiological and geographic features of ST in Guangzhou City, Southern China, to guide the future prevention efforts.
  
  
  METHODS
  Scrub typhus surveillance data in Guangzhou City during 2006-2012 were obtained from the Chinese National Communicable Disease Surveillance Network. We first conducted a descriptive analysis to analyze the epidemiological features of scrub typhus. Then we used space-time scan statistic based on a discrete Poisson model to detect and evaluate high-risk spatial-temporal clusters of scrub typhus.
  
  
  RESULTS
  There were 4,001 cases of scrub typhus in Guangzhou City during the study period. The incidence of scrub typhus increased from 3.29 per 100,000 in 2006 to 9.85 per 100,000 in 2012. A summer peak was observed in June and July with a second peak in September and October except year 2009 and 2011. The majority of the cases (71.4%) were among persons aged ≥40 years, and female incidence was higher than male incidence in persons ≥50 years. In the space-time analysis, high-risk clusters were concentrated in rural areas in Guangzhou City. Over the past 7 years, Haizhu District, an urban area, was found to be a high-risk cluster for the first time in 2012.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The resurgence of scrub typhus epidemics in Guangzhou population in 2012 necessitates more effective measures for minimizing future epidemics. Consideration of high-risk population and historical spatial-temporal clusters may help prevent scrub typhus. The risk of scrub typhus in urban areas should not be neglected and needs more attention from public health authorities.
authors.affiliation: Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Yuehong
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Wei
authors.affiliation: Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Yong
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Lei
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Luo
authors.affiliation: Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Xincai
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Xiao
authors.affiliation: Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Lan
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Province, Guangzhou, China.
authors.forename: Zhicong
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Yang
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D008875:Middle Aged; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D062486:Public Health Surveillance / Q000379:methods*; D012612:Scrub Typhus / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012737:Sex Factors; D062211:Spatio-Temporal Analysis; D055815:Young Adult