title: Modular framework to assess the risk of African swine fever virus entry into the European Union.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The recent occurrence and spread of African swine fever (ASF) in Eastern Europe is perceived as a serious risk for the pig industry in the European Union (EU). In order to estimate the potential risk of ASF virus (ASFV) entering the EU, several pathways of introduction were previously assessed separately. The present work aimed to integrate five of these assessments (legal imports of pigs, legal imports of products, illegal imports of products, fomites associated with transport and wild boar movements) into a modular tool that facilitates the visualization and comprehension of the relative risk of ASFV introduction into the EU by each analyzed pathway.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The framework's results indicate that 48% of EU countries are at relatively high risk (risk score 4 or 5 out of 5) for ASFV entry for at least one analyzed pathway. Four of these countries obtained the maximum risk score for one pathway: Bulgaria for legally imported products during the high risk period (HRP); Finland for wild boar; Slovenia and Sweden for legally imported pigs during the HRP. Distribution of risk considerably differed from one pathway to another; for some pathways, the risk was concentrated in a few countries (e.g., transport fomites), whereas other pathways incurred a high risk for 4 or 5 countries (legal pigs, illegal imports and wild boar).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The modular framework, developed to estimate the risk of ASFV entry into the EU, is available in a public domain, and is a transparent, easy-to-interpret tool that can be updated and adapted if required. The model's results determine the EU countries at higher risk for each ASFV introduction route, and provide a useful basis to develop a global coordinated program to improve ASFV prevention in the EU.
authors.affiliation: VISAVET Center and Animal Health Department, Veterinary School, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Avenida Puerta de Hierro s/n, 28040 Madrid, Spain. linamur@ucm.es.
authors.forename: Lina
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Mur
authors.forename: Beatriz
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Martínez-López
authors.forename: Solenne
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Costard
authors.forename: Ana
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: de la Torre
authors.forename: Bryony A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Jones
authors.forename: Marta
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Martínez
authors.forename: Fernando
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Sánchez-Vizcaíno
authors.forename: María Jesús
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Muñoz
authors.forename: Dirk U
authors.initials: DU
authors.lastname: Pfeiffer
authors.forename: José Manuel
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Sánchez-Vizcaíno
authors.forename: Barbara
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Wieland
mesh_terms: D000357:African Swine Fever / Q000453:epidemiology*; D000465:Algorithms; D000818:Animals; D003132:Commerce; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D005062:European Union; D008460:Meat; D008954:Models, Biological; D012307:Risk Factors; D034421:Sus scrofa; D013552:Swine