title: A Bayesian generalized age-period-cohort power model for cancer projections.
abstract: Age-period-cohort (APC) models are the state of art in cancer projections, assessing past and recent trends and extrapolating mortality or incidence data into the future. Nordpred is a well-established software, assuming a Poisson distribution for the counts and a log-link or power-link function with fixed power; however, its predictive performance is poor for sparse data. Bayesian models with log-link function have been applied, but they can lead to extreme estimates. In this paper, we address criticisms of the aforementioned models by providing Bayesian formulations based on a power-link and develop a generalized APC power-link model, which assumes a random rather than fixed power parameter. In addition, a power model with a fixed power parameter of five was formulated in the Bayesian framework. The predictive performance of the new models was evaluated on Swiss lung cancer mortality data using model-based estimates of observed periods. Results indicated that the generalized APC power-link model provides best estimates for male and female lung cancer mortality. The gender-specific models were further applied to project lung cancer mortality in Switzerland during the periods 2009-2013 and 2014-2018.
authors.affiliation: Department Epidemiology and Public Health, Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, Socinstr. 57, CH-Basel, Switzerland; University of Basel, CH-Basel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Verena
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Jürgens
authors.forename: Silvia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ess
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Cerny
authors.forename: Penelope
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Vounatsou
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003198:Computer Simulation; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000401:mortality; D008297:Male; D008390:Markov Chains; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D013557:Switzerland
keywords: Bayesian inference; Nordpred; cancer projection; lung cancer mortality; power model