title: Uncertainty in multi-media fate and transport models: a case study for TNT life cycle assessment.
abstract: Life cycle assessment (LCA) is an evaluation method used by decision-makers to help assess the relative environmental impacts of various industrial processes. Despite that many LCA methods remain sensitive to uncertain input data, which can reduce the utility of their results, uncertainty arising from constituent LCA models remains poorly understood. Here, we begin to address this problem by evaluating the extent to which parameter-value uncertainty affects the SimpleBox 2.0 fate and transport model, which serves as a backbone for many LCA ecotoxicological impact categories. Two Monte Carlo type sampling methods were used to evaluate dispersion in steady-state concentration values for three chemicals involved in grenade production: toluene, 2,4-dinitrotoluene (2,4-DNT), and 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT). Parameters were first sampled stochastically one-at-a-time, then by randomly exploring a local patch of the parameter space. We confirmed that global temperatures contribute primarily to the overall variance of model results, which at most spanned approximately 8 decades in magnitude. These results are consistent with previous results obtained for the whole of the LCA method. LCA methods carry out calculations iteratively; a reduction in the error of a single component, such as the fate and transport model, may therefore improve its performance and utility as a decision-making aid.
authors.affiliation: Environmental Laboratory, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, USA.
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Mayo
authors.affiliation: Environmental Laboratory, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, USA.
authors.forename: Zachary A
authors.initials: ZA
authors.lastname: Collier
authors.affiliation: Department of Biosystems Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA.
authors.forename: Vu
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Hoang
authors.affiliation: Environmental Laboratory, US Army Engineer Research and Development Center, Vicksburg, MS, USA. Electronic address: Mark.A.Chappell@erdc.dren.mil.
authors.forename: Mark
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Chappell
mesh_terms: D004785:Environmental Pollutants / Q000737:chemistry*; D008956:Models, Chemical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D018570:Risk Assessment; D014303:Trinitrotoluene / Q000737:chemistry*; D035501:Uncertainty
chemical_list: D004785:Environmental Pollutants; D014303:Trinitrotoluene
keywords: Fate and transport model; Life cycle assessment; Sensitivity analysis; SimpleBox; Trinitrotoluene; Uncertainty