title: Regional warming and emerging vector-borne zoonotic dirofilariosis in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and other post-Soviet states from 1981 to 2011 and projection by 2030.
abstract: We analyze through a climatic model the influence of regional warming on the geographical spreading and potential risk of infection of human dirofilariosis in Russia, Ukraine, and other post-Soviet states from 1981 to 2011 and estimate the situation by 2030. The model correctly predicts the spatiotemporal location of 97.10% of 2154 clinical cases reported in the area during the studied period, identified by a retrospective review of the literature. There exists also a significant correlation between annual predicted Dirofilaria generations and calculated morbidity. The model states the progressive increase of 14.8% in the potential transmission area, up to latitude 64 °N, and 14.7% in population exposure. By 2030 an increase of 18.5% in transmission area and 10.8% in population exposure is expected. These findings strongly suggest the influence of global warming in both geographical spreading and increase in the number of Dirofilaria generations. The results should alert about the epidemiological behavior of dirofilariosis and other mosquito-borne diseases in these and other countries with similar climatic characteristics.
authors.affiliation: Department of Infectious Diseases, Rostov State Medical University, Nakhichevanskiy Pereulok 29, Rostov-na-Donu 344022, Russia.
authors.forename: Vladimir
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-4581-6148
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Kartashev
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Geography, Saint Petersburg State University, Universitetskaya Nab. 7-9, Saint Petersburg 199034, Russia.
authors.forename: Alexandr
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Afonin
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Parasitology, Faculty of Pharmacy & IBSAL, University of Salamanca, C/del Licenciado Méndez Nieto s/n, 37007 Salamanca, Spain.
authors.forename: Javier
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: González-Miguel
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, University of Salamanca, C/Alfonso X el Sabio S/N, 37007 Salamanca, Spain.
authors.forename: Rosa
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Sepúlveda
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Parasitology, Faculty of Pharmacy & IBSAL, University of Salamanca, C/del Licenciado Méndez Nieto s/n, 37007 Salamanca, Spain.
authors.forename: Luis
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Simón
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Parasitology, Faculty of Pharmacy & IBSAL, University of Salamanca, C/del Licenciado Méndez Nieto s/n, 37007 Salamanca, Spain.
authors.forename: Rodrigo
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-2699-1482
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Morchón
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Parasitology, Faculty of Pharmacy & IBSAL, University of Salamanca, C/del Licenciado Méndez Nieto s/n, 37007 Salamanca, Spain.
authors.forename: Fernando
authors.identifier: 0000-0002-8177-6083
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Simón
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change; D004182:Dirofilaria / Q000472:pathogenicity*; D004184:Dirofilariasis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000469:parasitology; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors; D012426:Russia / Q000453:epidemiology; D014586:USSR / Q000453:epidemiology; D014455:Ukraine / Q000453:epidemiology