title: Neuropsychosocial profiles of current and future adolescent alcohol misusers.
abstract: A comprehensive account of the causes of alcohol misuse must accommodate individual differences in biology, psychology and environment, and must disentangle cause and effect. Animal models can demonstrate the effects of neurotoxic substances; however, they provide limited insight into the psycho-social and higher cognitive factors involved in the initiation of substance use and progression to misuse. One can search for pre-existing risk factors by testing for endophenotypic biomarkers in non-using relatives; however, these relatives may have personality or neural resilience factors that protect them from developing dependence. A longitudinal study has potential to identify predictors of adolescent substance misuse, particularly if it can incorporate a wide range of potential causal factors, both proximal and distal, and their influence on numerous social, psychological and biological mechanisms. Here we apply machine learning to a wide range of data from a large sample of adolescents (n = 692) to generate models of current and future adolescent alcohol misuse that incorporate brain structure and function, individual personality and cognitive differences, environmental factors (including gestational cigarette and alcohol exposure), life experiences, and candidate genes. These models were accurate and generalized to novel data, and point to life experiences, neurobiological differences and personality as important antecedents of binge drinking. By identifying the vulnerability factors underlying individual differences in alcohol misuse, these models shed light on the aetiology of alcohol misuse and suggest targets for prevention.
authors.affiliation: 1] Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont 05401, USA [2] Department of Psychology, University College Dublin, Dublin 4, Ireland.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Whelan
authors.affiliation: Department of Radiology, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont 05401, USA.
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Watts
authors.affiliation: Vermont Center for Children, Youth, and Families, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont 05401, USA.
authors.forename: Catherine A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Orr
authors.affiliation: 1] Department of Pediatrics, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont 05401, USA [2] Department of Psychology, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont 05401, USA.
authors.forename: Robert R
authors.initials: RR
authors.lastname: Althoff
authors.affiliation: 1] Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, INSERM CEA Unit 1000 "Imaging &Psychiatry", University Paris Sud, 91400 Orsay, France [2] Department of Psychiatry, Orsay Hospital, 4 place du General Leclerc, 91400 Orsay, France.
authors.forename: Eric
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Artiges
authors.affiliation: Department of Cognitive and Clinical Neuroscience, Central Institute of Mental Health, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, 68159 Mannheim, Germany.
authors.forename: Tobias
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Banaschewski
authors.affiliation: Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London SE5 8AF, UK.
authors.forename: Gareth J
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Barker
authors.affiliation: Institute of Neuroscience, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland.
authors.forename: Arun L W
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Bokde
authors.affiliation: 1] Department of Systems Neuroscience, Universitätsklinikum Hamburg Eppendorf, 20246 Hamburg, Germany [2] Department of Psychology, Stanford University, Stanford, California 94305, USA.
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Büchel
authors.affiliation: Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London SE5 8AF, UK.
authors.forename: Fabiana M
authors.initials: FM
authors.lastname: Carvalho
authors.affiliation: 1] Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London SE5 8AF, UK [2] Department of Psychiatry, Université de Montreal, CHU Ste Justine Hospital, Montreal H3T 1C5, Canada.
authors.forename: Patricia J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Conrod
authors.affiliation: Department of Cognitive and Clinical Neuroscience, Central Institute of Mental Health, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, 68159 Mannheim, Germany.
authors.forename: Herta
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Flor
authors.affiliation: 1] Department of Cognitive and Clinical Neuroscience, Central Institute of Mental Health, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, 68159 Mannheim, Germany [2] Department of Addictive Behaviour and Addiction Medicine, Heidelberg University, 68159 Mannheim, Germany.
authors.forename: Mira
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Fauth-Bühler
authors.affiliation: 14 CEA, DSV, I2BM, Neurospin bat 145, 91191 Gif-Sur-Yvette, France.
authors.forename: Vincent
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Frouin
authors.affiliation: 1] Department of Systems Neuroscience, Universitätsklinikum Hamburg Eppendorf, 20246 Hamburg, Germany [2] Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Campus Charité Mitte, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin 10117, Germany.
authors.forename: Juergen
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Gallinat
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry and Neuroimaging Center, Technische Universität Dresden, 01062 Dresden, Germany.
authors.forename: Gabriela
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Gan
authors.affiliation: School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK.
authors.forename: Penny
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Gowland
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Campus Charité Mitte, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin 10117, Germany.
authors.forename: Andreas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Heinz
authors.affiliation: Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB), 10587 Berlin, Germany.
authors.forename: Bernd
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Ittermann
authors.affiliation: School of Psychology, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK.
authors.forename: Claire
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Lawrence
authors.affiliation: Department of Cognitive and Clinical Neuroscience, Central Institute of Mental Health, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, 68159 Mannheim, Germany.
authors.forename: Karl
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Mann
authors.affiliation: 1] Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, INSERM CEA Unit 1000 "Imaging &Psychiatry", University Paris Sud, 91400 Orsay, France [2] AP-HP Department of Adolescent Psychopathology and Medicine, Maison de Solenn, University Paris Descartes, 75006 Paris, France.
authors.forename: Jean-Luc
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Martinot
authors.affiliation: Department of Cognitive and Clinical Neuroscience, Central Institute of Mental Health, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, 68159 Mannheim, Germany.
authors.forename: Frauke
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Nees
authors.affiliation: 1] Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont 05401, USA [2] Neuroscience Graduate Program, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont 05401, USA.
authors.forename: Nick
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Ortiz
authors.affiliation: 1] Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Campus Charité Mitte, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin 10117, Germany [2] AP-HP Department of Adolescent Psychopathology and Medicine, Maison de Solenn, University Paris Descartes, 75006 Paris, France.
authors.forename: Marie-Laure
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Paillère-Martinot
authors.affiliation: 1] Rotman Research Institute, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5R 0A3, Canada [2] Montreal Neurological Institute, McGill University, H3A 2B4, Canada.
authors.forename: Tomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Paus
authors.affiliation: The Hospital for Sick Children, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5G 0A4, Canada.
authors.forename: Zdenka
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Pausova
authors.affiliation: Department of Cognitive and Clinical Neuroscience, Central Institute of Mental Health, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Heidelberg University, 68159 Mannheim, Germany.
authors.forename: Marcella
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Rietschel
authors.affiliation: Behavioural and Clinical Neuroscience Institute and Department of Psychology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 1TN, UK.
authors.forename: Trevor W
authors.initials: TW
authors.lastname: Robbins
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry and Neuroimaging Center, Technische Universität Dresden, 01062 Dresden, Germany.
authors.forename: Michael N
authors.initials: MN
authors.lastname: Smolka
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Campus Charité Mitte, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin 10117, Germany.
authors.forename: Andreas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ströhle
authors.affiliation: 1] Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London SE5 8AF, UK [2] MRC Social, Genetic and Developmental Psychiatry (SGDP) Centre, London, London WC2R 2LS, UK.
authors.forename: Gunter
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Schumann
authors.affiliation: 1] Department of Psychiatry, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont 05401, USA [2] Department of Psychology, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont 05401, USA [3] Institute of Neuroscience, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin 2, Ireland.
authors.forename: Hugh
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Garavan
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000523:psychology*; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000235:genetics / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000523:psychology*; D001185:Artificial Intelligence; D001921:Brain / Q000502:physiology; D003071:Cognition / Q000502:physiology; D004777:Environment; D006801:Humans; D008016:Life Change Events; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010551:Personality / Q000502:physiology; D020641:Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide; D011584:Psychology; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012307:Risk Factors