title: Maize growing duration was prolonged across China in the past three decades under the combined effects of temperature, agronomic management, and cultivar shift.
abstract: Maize phenology observations at 112 national agro-meteorological experiment stations across China spanning the years 1981-2009 were used to investigate the spatiotemporal changes of maize phenology, as well as the relations to temperature change and cultivar shift. The greater scope of the dataset allows us to estimate the effects of temperature change and cultivar shift on maize phenology more precisely. We found that maize sowing date advanced significantly at 26.0% of stations mainly for spring maize in northwestern, southwestern and northeastern China, although delayed significantly at 8.0% of stations mainly in northeastern China and the North China Plain (NCP). Maize maturity date delayed significantly at 36.6% of stations mainly in the northeastern China and the NCP. As a result, duration of maize whole growing period (GPw) was prolonged significantly at 41.1% of stations, although mean temperature (Tmean) during GPw increased at 72.3% of stations, significantly at 19.6% of stations, and Tmean was negatively correlated with the duration of GPw at 92.9% of stations and significantly at 42.9% of stations. Once disentangling the effects of temperature change and cultivar shift with an approach based on accumulated thermal development unit, we found that increase in temperature advanced heading date and maturity date and reduced the duration of GPw at 81.3%, 82.1% and 83.9% of stations on average by 3.2, 6.0 and 3.5 days/decade, respectively. By contrast, cultivar shift delayed heading date and maturity date and prolonged the duration of GPw at 75.0%, 94.6% and 92.9% of stations on average by 1.5, 6.5 and 6.5 days/decade, respectively. Our results suggest that maize production is adapting to ongoing climate change by shift of sowing date and adoption of cultivars with longer growing period. The spatiotemporal changes of maize phenology presented here can further guide the development of adaptation options for maize production in near future.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China.
authors.forename: Fulu
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Tao
authors.forename: Shuai
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Zhao
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: Reimund P
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Rötter
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000379:methods*; D002681:China; D057231:Climate Change; D005843:Geography; D008954:Models, Biological; D013696:Temperature; D013997:Time Factors; D003313:Zea mays / Q000254:growth & development*
keywords: adaptation; agriculture; climate change; crop; cultivar; impacts; phenology