title: Harmonizing influenza primary-care surveillance in the United Kingdom: piloting two methods to assess the timing and intensity of the seasonal epidemic across several general practice-based surveillance schemes.
abstract: General Practitioner consultation rates for influenza-like illness (ILI) are monitored through several geographically distinct schemes in the UK, providing early warning to government and health services of community circulation and intensity of activity each winter. Following on from the 2009 pandemic, there has been a harmonization initiative to allow comparison across the distinct existing surveillance schemes each season. The moving epidemic method (MEM), proposed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control for standardizing reporting of ILI rates, was piloted in 2011/12 and 2012/13 along with the previously proposed UK method of empirical percentiles. The MEM resulted in thresholds that were lower than traditional thresholds but more appropriate as indicators of the start of influenza virus circulation. The intensity of the influenza season assessed with the MEM was similar to that reported through the percentile approach. The MEM pre-epidemic threshold has now been adopted for reporting by each country of the UK. Further work will continue to assess intensity of activity and apply standardized methods to other influenza-related data sources.
authors.affiliation: Respiratory Diseases Department, Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control, Public Health England, London,UK.
authors.forename: H K
authors.initials: HK
authors.lastname: Green
authors.affiliation: Respiratory Diseases Department, Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control, Public Health England, London,UK.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Charlett
authors.affiliation: Respiratory Diseases Department, Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control, Public Health England, London,UK.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Moran-Gilad
authors.affiliation: Royal College of General Practitioners,Birmingham,UK.
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Fleming
authors.affiliation: Royal College of General Practitioners,Birmingham,UK.
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Durnall
authors.affiliation: Public Health Wales, Cardiff,UK.
authors.forename: D Rh
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Thomas
authors.affiliation: Public Health Wales, Cardiff,UK.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Cottrell
authors.affiliation: Public Health Agency, Belfast, Northern Ireland,UK.
authors.forename: B
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Smyth
authors.affiliation: Public Health Agency, Belfast, Northern Ireland,UK.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Kearns
authors.affiliation: Health Protection Scotland, Glasgow,UK.
authors.forename: A J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Reynolds
authors.affiliation: Public Health England, Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team, Birmingham,UK.
authors.forename: G E
authors.initials: GE
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.affiliation: Public Health England, Real-time Syndromic Surveillance Team, Birmingham,UK.
authors.forename: A J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Elliot
authors.affiliation: Public Health England Respiratory Virus Unit,Virus Reference Department, Reference Microbiology Services, PHE Colindale, London,UK.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Ellis
authors.affiliation: Public Health England Respiratory Virus Unit,Virus Reference Department, Reference Microbiology Services, PHE Colindale, London,UK.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Zambon
authors.affiliation: Respiratory Diseases Department, Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control, Public Health England, London,UK.
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Watson
authors.affiliation: Health Protection Scotland, Glasgow,UK.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: McMenamin
authors.affiliation: Respiratory Diseases Department, Centre for Infectious Disease Surveillance and Control, Public Health England, London,UK.
authors.forename: R G
authors.initials: RG
authors.lastname: Pebody
mesh_terms: D018563:Disease Notification / Q000379:methods*; D062665:Epidemiological Monitoring; D006801:Humans; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D011320:Primary Health Care / Q000379:methods*; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology