title: A model-guided analysis and perspective on the evolution and epidemiology of antibiotic resistance and its future.
abstract: A simple epidemiological model is used as a framework to explore the potential efficacy of measures to control antibiotic resistance in community-based self-limiting human infections. The analysis of the properties of this model predict that resistance can be maintained at manageable levels if: first, the rates at which specific antibiotics are used declines with the frequency of resistance to these drugs; second, resistance rarely emerges during therapy; and third, external sources rarely contribute to the entry of resistant bacteria into the community. We discuss the feasibility and limitations of these measures to control the rates of antibiotic resistance and the potential of advances in diagnostic procedures to facilitate this endeavor.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA. Electronic address: blevin@emory.edu.
authors.forename: Bruce R
authors.initials: BR
authors.lastname: Levin
authors.affiliation: Ramón y Cajal Institute for Health Research (IRYCIS), Ramón y Cajal University Hospital, Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: Fernando
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Baquero
authors.affiliation: Department of Pharmacy, UiT, The Arctic University, Tromsø, Norway.
authors.forename: Pål J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Johnsen
mesh_terms: D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D005075:Biological Evolution; D004352:Drug Resistance, Microbial; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical
chemical_list: D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents