title: Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography.
abstract: Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial-interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia - fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys - in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, 97403, USA.
authors.forename: Daniel G
authors.initials: DG
authors.lastname: Gavin
authors.affiliation: Appalachian Laboratory, University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Frostburg, MD, 21532, USA.
authors.forename: Matthew C
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Fitzpatrick
authors.affiliation: Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, 90095, USA.
authors.forename: Paul F
authors.initials: PF
authors.lastname: Gugger
authors.affiliation: Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA.
authors.forename: Katy D
authors.initials: KD
authors.lastname: Heath
authors.affiliation: Department of Plant Sciences, University of Cambridge, Downing Street, Cambridge, CB2 3EA, UK.
authors.forename: Francisco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Rodríguez-Sánchez
authors.affiliation: Department of Forest Management, College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 59812, USA.
authors.forename: Solomon Z
authors.initials: SZ
authors.lastname: Dobrowski
authors.affiliation: INRA, BIOGECO, UMR 1202, 33610, Cestas, France.|BIOGECO, UMR 1202, University of Bordeaux, 33400, Talence, France.
authors.forename: Arndt
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Hampe
authors.affiliation: Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA.
authors.forename: Feng Sheng
authors.initials: FS
authors.lastname: Hu
authors.affiliation: Australian Museum, 6 College Street, Sydney, NSW, 2010, Australia.
authors.forename: Michael B
authors.initials: MB
authors.lastname: Ashcroft
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, 97403, USA.
authors.forename: Patrick J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Bartlein
authors.affiliation: School of Natural Sciences, University of California, Merced, CA, 95343, USA.
authors.forename: Jessica L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Blois
authors.affiliation: Department of Evolution, Ecology & Organismal Biology, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, 43210, USA.
authors.forename: Bryan C
authors.initials: BC
authors.lastname: Carstens
authors.affiliation: Department of Geological Sciences, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, 97403, USA.
authors.forename: Edward B
authors.initials: EB
authors.lastname: Davis
authors.affiliation: Canada Research Chair in Forest and Environmental Genomics, Centre for Forest Research, Institute for Systems and Integrative Biology, Université Laval, Québec City, QC, G1V 0A6, Canada.
authors.forename: Guillaume
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: de Lafontaine
authors.affiliation: Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UK.
authors.forename: Mary E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Edwards
authors.affiliation: Department of Plant Biology, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL, 61801, USA.
authors.forename: Matias
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Fernandez
authors.affiliation: Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Institute of Plant Sciences, University of Bern, 3013, Bern, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Paul D
authors.initials: PD
authors.lastname: Henne
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR, 97403, USA.
authors.forename: Erin M
authors.initials: EM
authors.lastname: Herring
authors.affiliation: USDA Forest Service Region 1, Missoula, MT, 59807, USA.
authors.forename: Zachary A
authors.initials: ZA
authors.lastname: Holden
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, Kyung Hee University, Seoul, 130-701, Korea.
authors.forename: Woo-Seok
authors.initials: WS
authors.lastname: Kong
authors.affiliation: College of Life Science, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
authors.forename: Jianquan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Dipartimento di Biologia Ambientale, Sapienza University, Piazzale Aldo Moro 5, 00185, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Donatella
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Magri
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN, 37996, USA.
authors.forename: Nicholas J
authors.initials: NJ
authors.lastname: Matzke
authors.affiliation: Landcare Research, Lincoln, 7640, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Matt S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: McGlone
authors.affiliation: Environment Institute, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, 5005, Australia.
authors.forename: Frédérik
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Saltré
authors.affiliation: Department of Geological Sciences, OHIO Center for Ecology and Evolutionary Studies, Ohio University, Athens, OH, 45701, USA.
authors.forename: Alycia L
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Stigall
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, 46556, USA.
authors.forename: Yi-Hsin Erica
authors.initials: YE
authors.lastname: Tsai
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, Nelson Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI, 53706, USA.
authors.forename: John W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Williams
mesh_terms: D002980:Climate; D029964:Fagus / Q000502:physiology; D005580:Fossils; D046448:Ice Cover; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D058974:Phylogeography; D028222:Picea / Q000502:physiology; D010944:Plants; D028224:Pseudotsuga / Q000502:physiology
keywords: Last Glacial Maximum; climate change; migration; paleoecology; phylogeography; range dynamics; species distribution modeling