title: Forecasting tuberculosis incidence in iran using box-jenkins models.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Predicting the incidence of tuberculosis (TB) plays an important role in planning health control strategies for the future, developing intervention programs and allocating resources.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  The present longitudinal study estimated the incidence of tuberculosis in 2014 using Box-Jenkins methods.
  
  
  METHODS
  Monthly data of tuberculosis cases recorded in the surveillance system of Iran tuberculosis control program from 2005 till 2011 was used. Data was reviewed regarding normality, variance equality and stationary conditions. The parameters p, d and q and P, D and Q were determined, and different models were examined. Based on the lowest levels of AIC and BIC, the most suitable model was selected among the models whose overall adequacy was confirmed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  During 84 months, 63568 TB patients were recorded. The average was 756.8 (SD = 11.9) TB cases a month. SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 with the lowest level of AIC (12.78) was selected as the most adequate model for prediction. It was predicted that the total nationwide TB cases for 2014 will be about 16.75 per 100,000 people.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Regarding the cyclic pattern of TB recorded cases, Box-Jenkins and SARIMA models are suitable for predicting its prevalence in future. Moreover, prediction results show an increasing trend of TB cases in Iran.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, IR Iran.
authors.forename: Mahmood
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Moosazadeh
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, IR Iran.
authors.forename: Mahshid
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Nasehi
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, Faculty of Health, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, IR Iran.
authors.forename: Abbas
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Bahrampour
authors.affiliation: Neurology Research Center, Shafa Hospital, Kerman University of Medical Sciences, Kerman, IR Iran ; Monash Centre for Occupational & Environmental Health, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
authors.forename: Narges
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Khanjani
authors.affiliation: Center for Diseases Control and Prevention, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, IR Iran.
authors.forename: Saeed
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sharafi
authors.affiliation: Center for Diseases Control and Prevention, Ministry of Health and Medical Education, Tehran, IR Iran.
authors.forename: Shanaz
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ahmadi
keywords: Forecasting; Hb Jenkins; Iran; Tuberculosis