title: Accuracy of forecasts in strategic intelligence.
abstract: The accuracy of 1,514 strategic intelligence forecasts abstracted from intelligence reports was assessed. The results show that both discrimination and calibration of forecasts was very good. Discrimination was better for senior (versus junior) analysts and for easier (versus harder) forecasts. Miscalibration was mainly due to underconfidence such that analysts assigned more uncertainty than needed given their high level of discrimination. Underconfidence was more pronounced for harder (versus easier) forecasts and for forecasts deemed more (versus less) important for policy decision making. Despite the observed underconfidence, there was a paucity of forecasts in the least informative 0.4-0.6 probability range. Recalibrating the forecasts substantially reduced underconfidence. The findings offer cause for tempered optimism about the accuracy of strategic intelligence forecasts and indicate that intelligence producers aim to promote informativeness while avoiding overstatement.
authors.affiliation: Socio-Cognitive Systems Section, Defence Research and Development Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada M3K 2C9; and drmandel66@gmail.com.
authors.forename: David R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Mandel
authors.affiliation: Formerly of the Intelligence Assessment Secretariat, Privy Council Office, Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A OA3.
authors.forename: Alan
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Barnes
keywords: forecasting; intelligence analysis; prediction; quality control; recalibration