title: Modelling the incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Afghanistan 2006-2009.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Identifying areas that support high malaria risks and where populations lack access to health care is central to reducing the burden in Afghanistan. This study investigated the incidence of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum using routine data to help focus malaria interventions.
  
  
  METHODS
  To estimate incidence, the study modelled utilisation of the public health sector using fever treatment data from the 2012 national Malaria Indicator Survey. A probabilistic measure of attendance was applied to population density metrics to define the proportion of the population within catchment of a public health facility. Malaria data were used in a Bayesian spatio-temporal conditional-autoregressive model with ecological or environmental covariates, to examine the spatial and temporal variation of incidence.
  
  
  RESULTS
  From the analysis of healthcare utilisation, over 80% of the population was within 2 hours' travel of the nearest public health facility, while 64.4% were within 30 minutes' travel. The mean incidence of P. vivax in 2009 was 5.4 (95% Crl 3.2-9.2) cases per 1000 population compared to 1.2 (95% Crl 0.4-2.9) cases per 1000 population for P. falciparum. P. vivax peaked in August while P. falciparum peaked in November. 32% of the estimated 30.5 million people lived in regions where annual incidence was at least 1 case per 1,000 population of P. vivax; 23.7% of the population lived in areas where annual P. falciparum case incidence was at least 1 per 1000.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study showed how routine data can be combined with household survey data to model malaria incidence. The incidence of both P. vivax and P. falciparum in Afghanistan remain low but the co-distribution of both parasites and the lag in their peak season provides challenges to malaria control in Afghanistan. Future improved case definition to determine levels of imported risks may be useful for the elimination ambitions in Afghanistan.
authors.affiliation: Spatial Health Metrics Group, Department of Public Health, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust, Nairobi, Kenya; Centre for Geographical Health Research, Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield Southampton, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Victor A
authors.initials: VA
authors.lastname: Alegana
authors.affiliation: Centre for Geographical Health Research, Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield Southampton, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Jim A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Wright
authors.affiliation: National Malaria and Leishmaniasis Control Programme, Ministry of Public Health, Kabul, Afghanistan.
authors.forename: Sami M
authors.initials: SM
authors.lastname: Nahzat
authors.affiliation: Malaria and Leishmaniasis, WHO Office, Kabul, Afghanistan.
authors.forename: Waqar
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Butt
authors.affiliation: National Malaria and Leishmaniasis Control Programme, Ministry of Public Health, Kabul, Afghanistan.
authors.forename: Amad W
authors.initials: AW
authors.lastname: Sediqi
authors.affiliation: Malaria and Leishmaniasis, WHO Office, Kabul, Afghanistan.
authors.forename: Naeem
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Habib
authors.affiliation: Spatial Health Metrics Group, Department of Public Health, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust, Nairobi, Kenya; Centre for Tropical Medicine, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Robert W
authors.initials: RW
authors.lastname: Snow
authors.affiliation: Centre for Geographical Health Research, Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Highfield Southampton, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Peter M
authors.initials: PM
authors.lastname: Atkinson
authors.affiliation: Spatial Health Metrics Group, Department of Public Health, KEMRI-Wellcome Trust, Nairobi, Kenya; Centre for Tropical Medicine, Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Abdisalan M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Noor
mesh_terms: D000346:Afghanistan / Q000453:epidemiology; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003695:Delivery of Health Care / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D016778:Malaria, Falciparum / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000469:parasitology / Q000635:transmission; D016780:Malaria, Vivax / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000469:parasitology / Q000635:transmission; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009313:National Health Programs / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D010963:Plasmodium falciparum / Q000302:isolation & purification; D010966:Plasmodium vivax / Q000302:isolation & purification; D011634:Public Health / Q000706:statistics & numerical data