title: Impacts of a warming marginal sea on torrential rainfall organized under the Asian summer monsoon.
abstract: Monsoonal airflow from the tropics triggers torrential rainfall over coastal regions of East Asia in summer, bringing flooding situations into areas of growing population and industries. However, impacts of rapid seasonal warming of the shallow East China Sea ECS and its pronounced future warming upon extreme summertime rainfall have not been explored. Here we show through cloudresolving atmospheric model simulations that observational tendency for torrential rainfall events over western Japan to occur most frequently in July cannot be reproduced without the rapid seasonal warming of ECS. The simulations also suggest that the future ECS warming will increase precipitation substantially in such an extreme event as observed in mid July 2012 and also the likelihood of such an event occurring in June. A need is thus urged for reducing uncertainties in future temperature projections over ECS and other marginal seas for better projections of extreme summertime rainfall in the surrounding areas.
authors.affiliation: Graduate School of Fisheries Science and Environmental Studies, Nagasaki University, Nagasaki, 8528521, Japan.
authors.forename: Atsuyoshi
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Manda
authors.affiliation: 1] Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 1538904, Japan [2] Application Laboratory, Japan Agency for MarineEarth Science and Technology, Yokohama, 2360001, Japan.
authors.forename: Hisashi
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Nakamura
authors.affiliation: Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 1538904, Japan.
authors.forename: Naruhiko
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Asano
authors.affiliation: Monitoring and Forecast Research Department, National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, 3050006, Japan.
authors.forename: Satoshi
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Iizuka
authors.affiliation: Application Laboratory, Japan Agency for MarineEarth Science and Technology, Yokohama, 2360001, Japan.
authors.forename: Toru
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Miyama
authors.affiliation: Department of Coupled OceanAtmosphereLand Processes Research, Japan Agency for MarineEarth Science and Technology, Yokosuka, 2370061, Japan.
authors.forename: Qoosaku
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Moteki
authors.affiliation: Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Studies, Tohoku University, Sendai, 9808578, Japan.
authors.forename: Mayumi K
authors.initials: MK
authors.lastname: Yoshioka
authors.affiliation: Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 1538904, Japan.
authors.forename: Kazuaki
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Nishii
authors.affiliation: Research Center for Advanced Science and Technology, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, 1538904, Japan.
authors.forename: Takafumi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Miyasaka