title: Worker doses and potential health effects resulting from the accident at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in 2011.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The reliability of exposure scenarios used in the World Health Organization's Health Risk Assessment (HRA) for Fukushima workers was examined. HRA risk estimates for cancer incidence in these workers were then reviewed.
  
  
  METHODS
  The HRA constructed four exposure scenarios to estimate worker radiation doses; recent individual dosimetric data were used to assess their reliability. Risks of specified cancer types attributable to radiation exposure were estimated in the HRA by calculating Lifetime Attributable Risks (LAR) for each scenario, and comparisons of LAR are provided.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The scenarios were confirmed as reliable for the purposes of the HRA. For the lowest dose scenario (Scenario 1: 69% of the workforce), the HRA found that any elevated cancer risk was insignificant. Significantly elevated cancer risks were, however, found for the three higher dose scenarios.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  For the highest dose scenario (Scenario 4: 13 workers), LAR values for thyroid cancer up to 3.5% were estimated, but a radiation-related increase in thyroid cancer incidence is unlikely to be observed because of the small number of workers. For the two intermediate dose scenarios, a small number of cancer cases may occur, but these are unlikely to be observed because the variability in baseline rates of cancer incidence is much larger than the predicted radiation-related incidence rates.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Radiation, Chemical and Environmental Hazards, Public Health England (PHE) , Chilton, Didcot, Oxon , UK.
authors.forename: George
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Etherington
authors.forename: Wei
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Zhang
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Harrison
authors.forename: Linda
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Walsh
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D004307:Dose-Response Relationship, Radiation; D062406:Fukushima Nuclear Accident; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000209:etiology*; D009381:Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced; D055848:Nuclear Power Plants; D016273:Occupational Exposure; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011829:Radiation Dosage; D011834:Radiation Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D011874:Radiometry / Q000379:methods*; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D018570:Risk Assessment; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Dosimetry; Fukushima; accident; effects; workers