title: The accuracy of surgeons' provided estimates for the duration of hysterectomies: a pilot study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To determine the accuracy of gynecologic surgeons' estimate of operative times for hysterectomies and to compare these with the existing computer-generated estimate at our institution.
  
  
  METHODS
  Pilot prospective cohort study (Canadian Task Force classification II-2).
  
  
  METHODS
  Academic tertiary women's hospital in the Northeast United States.
  
  
  METHODS
  Thirty gynecologic surgeons including 23 general gynecologists, 4 gynecologic oncologists, and 3 urogynecologists.
  
  
  METHODS
  Via a 6-question survey, surgeons were asked to predict the operative time for a hysterectomy they were about to perform. The surgeons' predictions were then compared with the time predicted by the scheduling system at our institution and with the actual operative time, to determine accuracy and differences between actual and predicted times. Patient and surgery data were collected to perform a secondary analysis to determine factors that may have significantly affected the prediction.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Of 75 hysterectomies analyzed, 36 were performed abdominally, 18 vaginally, and 21 laparoscopically. Accuracy was established if the actual procedure time was within the 15-minute increment predicted by either the surgeons or the scheduling system. The surgeons accurately predicted the duration of 20 hysterectomies (26.7%), whereas the accuracy of the scheduling system was only 9.3%. The scheduling system accuracy was significantly less precise than the surgeons, primarily due to overestimation (p = .01); operative time was overestimated on average 34 minutes. The scheduling system overestimated the time required to a greater extent than the surgeons for nearly all data examined, including patient body mass index, surgical approach, indication for surgery, surgeon experience, uterine size, and previous abdominal surgery.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Although surgeons' accuracy in predicting operative time was poor, it was significantly better than that of the computerized scheduling system, which was more likely to overestimate operative time.
authors.affiliation: Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Women and Infants Hospital, Providence, Rhode Island. Electronic address: daroque22@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Dario R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Roque
authors.affiliation: Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Women and Infants Hospital, Providence, Rhode Island; Program in Women's Oncology, Women and Infants Hospital, Providence, Rhode Island.
authors.forename: Katina
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Robison
authors.affiliation: Divisions of Research, Women and Infants Hospital, Providence, Rhode Island.
authors.forename: Christina A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Raker
authors.affiliation: Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Women and Infants Hospital, Providence, Rhode Island.
authors.forename: Gary G
authors.initials: GG
authors.lastname: Wharton
authors.affiliation: Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Women and Infants Hospital, Providence, Rhode Island; Reproductive Endocrinology and Infertility, The Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown University, Women and Infants Hospital, Providence, Rhode Island.
authors.forename: Gary N
authors.initials: GN
authors.lastname: Frishman
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006176:Gynecology; D006801:Humans; D007044:Hysterectomy / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D007045:Hysterectomy, Vaginal / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D010535:Laparoscopy / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D008875:Middle Aged; D009873:Operating Rooms / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D061646:Operative Time; D010865:Pilot Projects; D011446:Prospective Studies
keywords: Hysterectomy; Operating room utilization; Operative time