title: The future burden of obesity-related diseases in the 53 WHO European-Region countries and the impact of effective interventions: a modelling study.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the biggest cause of death in Europe putting an unsustainable burden on already struggling health systems. Increases in obesity are a major cause of NCDs. This paper projects the future burden of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, type 2 diabetes and seven cancers by 2030 in 53 WHO European Region countries based on current and past body mass index (BMI) trends. It also tests the impact of obesity interventions on the future disease burden.
  
  
  METHODS
  Secondary data analysis of country-specific epidemiological data using a microsimulation modelling process.
  
  
  METHODS
  The effect of three hypothetical scenarios on the future burden of disease in 2030 was tested: baseline scenario, BMI trends go unchecked; intervention 1, population BMI decreases by 1%; intervention 2, BMI decreases by 5%.
  
  
  METHODS
  Quantifying the future burden of major NCDs and the impact of interventions on this future disease burden.
  
  
  RESULTS
  By 2030 in the whole of the European region, the prevalence of diabetes, CHD and stroke and cancers was projected to reach an average of 3990, 4672 and 2046 cases/100 000, respectively. The highest prevalence of diabetes was predicted in Slovakia (10 870), CHD and stroke-in Greece (11 292) and cancers-in Finland (5615 cases/100 000). A 5% fall in population BMI was projected to significantly reduce cumulative incidence of diseases. The largest reduction in diabetes and CHD and stroke was observed in Slovakia (3054 and 3369 cases/100 000, respectively), and in cancers was predicted in Germany (331/100 000).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Modelling future disease trends is a useful tool for policymakers so that they can allocate resources effectively and implement policies to prevent NCDs. Future research will allow real policy interventions to be tested; however, better surveillance data on NCDs and their risk factors are essential for research and policy.
authors: Modelling Department, UK Health Forum, London, UK.
authors: Laura
authors: L
authors: Webber
authors: Modelling Department, UK Health Forum, London, UK.
authors: Diana
authors: D
authors: Divajeva
authors: Modelling Department, UK Health Forum, London, UK.
authors: Tim
authors: T
authors: Marsh
authors: New College, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
authors: Klim
authors: K
authors: McPherson
authors: Modelling Department, UK Health Forum, London, UK.
authors: Martin
authors: M
authors: Brown
authors: Division of Noncommunicable Diseases and Life-Course, WHO Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark.
authors: Gauden
authors: G
authors: Galea
authors: Division of Noncommunicable Diseases and Life-Course, WHO Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark.
authors: Joao
authors: J
authors: Breda
mesh_terms: D015992:Body Mass Index; D003327:Coronary Disease / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D005060:Europe / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D017048:Health Care Costs; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D018803:Models, Economic; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D009765:Obesity / Q000150:complications / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology; D015995:Prevalence; D012307:Risk Factors; D020521:Stroke / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000209:etiology; D014944:World Health Organization
keywords: EPIDEMIOLOGY; NUTRITION & DIETETICS; PUBLIC HEALTH; STATISTICS & RESEARCH METHODS