title: [Assessing and forecasting morbidity of adolescents living in area influenced by aluminium production].
abstract: Objective of the study--to forecast morbidity (of respiratory diseases) among adolescents via mathematic modelling during primary exploitation of new aluminium production (exemplified by Taishet city). Incidence during 2003-2011 of all diseases in the adolescents equalled 1129,1 per thousand, of respiratory diseases--627,4 per thousand. The mathematic model was designed to reveal role of environmental hazards in morbidity formation. According to medium-term forecast results, launching the aluminium production plant in East Siberia in 3 years will increase by 67% the morbidity with respiratory diseases in the adolescents.
authors: N V
authors: NV
authors: Efimova
authors: I V
authors: IV
authors: Donskikh
authors: T S
authors: TS
authors: Zarodniuk
authors: A Iu
authors: AIu
authors: Gornov
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000535:Aluminum / Q000633:toxicity*; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008171:Lung Diseases / Q000139:chemically induced / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008669:Metallurgy / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D012800:Siberia / Q000453:epidemiology; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D000535:Aluminum