title: Predicting proliferative vitreoretinopathy: temporal and external validation of models based on genetic and clinical variables.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To validate three models for predicting proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR) based on the analysis of genotypic data and relevant clinical characteristics.
  
  
  METHODS
  The validation series consisted of data from 546 patients operated on from primary rhegmatogenous retinal detachment (RRD) coming from centres in the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and the UK. Temporal and geographical validation was performed. The discrimination capability of each model was analysed and compared with the original series, using a receiver operating curve. Then, clinical variables were combined in order to improve the predictive capability. A risk reclassification analysis was performed with and without each one of the variables. Reclassification of patients was compared and models were readjusted in the original series. Readjusted models were further validated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  One of the models showed good predictability in the temporal sample as well as in the original series (area under the curve (AUC) original=0.7352; AUC temporal=0.6457, 95% CI 50.17 to 78.97). When clinical variables were included, only pre-existent PVR improves the predictability of this model in the validation series (temporal and geographical samples) (AUC original=0.7940 vs AUC temporal=0.7744 and AUC geographical=0.7152). The other models showed acceptable AUC values when clinical variables were included although they were less accurate than in the original series.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Genetic profiling of patients with RRD can improve the predictability of PVR in addition to the well-known clinical biomarkers. This validated formula could be a new tool in our current clinical practice in order to identify those patients at high risk of developing PVR.
authors: IOBA (Eye Institute), University of Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain.
authors: Jimena
authors: J
authors: Rojas
authors: Networking Research Center on Bioengineering, Biomaterials and Nanomedicine (Ciber BBN), Valladolid, Spain.
authors: Itziar
authors: I
authors: Fernandez
authors: IOBA (Eye Institute), University of Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain Networking Research Center on Bioengineering, Biomaterials and Nanomedicine (Ciber BBN), Valladolid, Spain Clinic University Hospital of Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain.
authors: Jose C
authors: JC
authors: Pastor
authors: Moorfields Eye Hospital and UCL Institute of Ophthalmology NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, London, UK.
authors: Robert E
authors: RE
authors: MacLaren
authors: Moorfields Eye Hospital and UCL Institute of Ophthalmology NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, London, UK.
authors: Yashin
authors: Y
authors: Ramkissoon
authors: Moorfields Eye Hospital and UCL Institute of Ophthalmology NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, London, UK.
authors: Steven
authors: S
authors: Harsum
authors: Moorfields Eye Hospital and UCL Institute of Ophthalmology NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, London, UK.
authors: David G
authors: DG
authors: Charteris
authors: The Rotterdam Eye Hospital and Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
authors: Jan C
authors: JC
authors: Van Meurs
authors: The Rotterdam Eye Hospital and Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.
authors: Sankha
authors: S
authors: Amarakoon
authors: Valle de Hebron University Hospital, Barcelona, Spain.
authors: Jose
authors: J
authors: Garcia-Arumi
authors: VISSUM, Alicante, University of Castile-La Mancha, Albacete, Spain.
authors: Jose M
authors: JM
authors: Ruiz-Moreno
authors: Department of Senses Organs, Faculty of Medicine, University of Porto, São João Hospital, Porto, Portugal.
authors: Amandio
authors: A
authors: Rocha-Sousa
authors: Medicina Xenómica, Complexo Hospitalario Universitario de Santiago, IDIS, Santiago de Compostela, Spain University of Santiago de Compostela, Galician Public Foundation for Genomic Medicine, CIBERER, Santiago de Compostela, Spain.
authors: Maria
authors: M
authors: Brion
authors: Medicina Xenómica, Complexo Hospitalario Universitario de Santiago, IDIS, Santiago de Compostela, Spain University of Santiago de Compostela, Galician Public Foundation for Genomic Medicine, CIBERER, Santiago de Compostela, Spain.
authors: Angel
authors: A
authors: Carracedo
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D019540:Area Under Curve; D005136:Eye Proteins / Q000235:genetics; D005260:Female; D020869:Gene Expression Profiling; D005819:Genetic Markers; D020022:Genetic Predisposition to Disease; D005838:Genotype; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008957:Models, Genetic; D020641:Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012372:ROC Curve; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012163:Retinal Detachment / Q000150:complications / Q000601:surgery; D018570:Risk Assessment; D018630:Vitreoretinopathy, Proliferative / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000235:genetics*
chemical_list: D005136:Eye Proteins; D005819:Genetic Markers
keywords: Diagnostic tests/Investigation; Genetics; Retina