title: An updated natural history model of cervical cancer: derivation of model parameters.
abstract: Mathematical models of cervical cancer have been widely used to evaluate the comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of preventive strategies. Major advances in the understanding of cervical carcinogenesis motivate the creation of a new disease paradigm in such models. To keep pace with the most recent evidence, we updated a previously developed microsimulation model of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and cervical cancer to reflect 1) a shift towards health states based on HPV rather than poorly reproducible histological diagnoses and 2) HPV clearance and progression to precancer as a function of infection duration and genotype, as derived from the control arm of the Costa Rica Vaccine Trial (2004-2010). The model was calibrated leveraging empirical data from the New Mexico Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Registry (1980-1999) and a state-of-the-art cervical cancer screening registry in New Mexico (2007-2009). The calibrated model had good correspondence with data on genotype- and age-specific HPV prevalence, genotype frequency in precancer and cancer, and age-specific cancer incidence. We present this model in response to a call for new natural history models of cervical cancer intended for decision analysis and economic evaluation at a time when global cervical cancer prevention policy continues to evolve and evidence of the long-term health effects of cervical interventions remains critical.
authors: Nicole G
authors: NG
authors: Campos
authors: Emily A
authors: EA
authors: Burger
authors: Stephen
authors: S
authors: Sy
authors: Monisha
authors: M
authors: Sharma
authors: Mark
authors: M
authors: Schiffman
authors: Ana Cecilia
authors: AC
authors: Rodriguez
authors: Allan
authors: A
authors: Hildesheim
authors: Rolando
authors: R
authors: Herrero
authors: Jane J
authors: JJ
authors: Kim
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D052685:Alphapapillomavirus / Q000235:genetics*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008875:Middle Aged; D008954:Models, Biological; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D009516:New Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D030361:Papillomavirus Infections / Q000150:complications* / Q000453:epidemiology; D002583:Uterine Cervical Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000821:virology*; D055815:Young Adult; D002578:Uterine Cervical Dysplasia / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000821:virology*
keywords: decision analysis; human papillomavirus; mathematical models; uterine cervical neoplasms