title: The southern megalopolis: using the past to predict the future of urban sprawl in the Southeast U.S.
abstract: The future health of ecosystems is arguably as dependent on urban sprawl as it is on human-caused climatic warming. Urban sprawl strongly impacts the urban ecosystems it creates and the natural and agro-ecosystems that it displaces and fragments. Here, we project urban sprawl changes for the next 50 years for the fast-growing Southeast U.S. Previous studies have focused on modeling population density, but the urban extent is arguably as important as population density per se in terms of its ecological and conservation impacts. We develop simulations using the SLEUTH urban growth model that complement population-driven models but focus on spatial pattern and extent. To better capture the reach of low-density suburban development, we extend the capabilities of SLEUTH by incorporating street-network information. Our simulations point to a future in which the extent of urbanization in the Southeast is projected to increase by 101% to 192%. Our results highlight areas where ecosystem fragmentation is likely, and serve as a benchmark to explore the challenging tradeoffs between ecosystem health, economic growth and cultural desires.
authors: Southeast Climate Science Center, US Geological Survey, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America; Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.
authors: Adam J
authors: AJ
authors: Terando
authors: Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.
authors: Jennifer
authors: J
authors: Costanza
authors: Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.
authors: Curtis
authors: C
authors: Belyea
authors: Department of Biological Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.
authors: Robert R
authors: RR
authors: Dunn
authors: Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America; Core Science Analytics and Synthesis, US Geological Survey, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.
authors: Alexa
authors: A
authors: McKerrow
authors: Department of Applied Ecology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America; U.S. Geological Survey, North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.
authors: Jaime A
authors: JA
authors: Collazo
mesh_terms: D002947:Cities; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods; D017753:Ecosystem; D005544:Forecasting; D005843:Geography; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011156:Population Density; D015144:Southeastern United States; D014507:Urbanization / Q000639:trends*