title: The influence of labor market changes on first-time medical school applicant pools.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To explore whether the number and composition of first-time applicants to U.S. MD-granting medical schools, which have fluctuated over the past 30 years, are related to changes in labor market strength, specifically the unemployment rate and wages.
  
  
  METHODS
  The authors merged time series data from 1980 through 2010 (inclusive) from five sources and used multivariate time series models to determine whether changes in labor market strength (and several other macro-level factors) were related to the number of the medical school applicants as reported by the American Medical College Application Service. Analyses were replicated across specific sex and race/ethnicity applicant pools.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Two results surfaced in the analyses. First, the strength of the labor market was not influential in explaining changes in applicant pool sizes for all applicants, but was strongly influential in explaining changes for black and Hispanic males. Increases of $1,000 in prevailing median wages produced a 1.6% decrease in the white male applicant pool, while 1% increases in the unemployment rate were associated with 4.5% and 3.1% increases in, respectively, the black and Hispanic male applicant pools. Second, labor market strength was a more important determinant in applications from males than in applications from females.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Although stakeholders cannot directly influence the overall economic market, they can plan and prepare for fewer applications from males, especially those who are black and Hispanic, when the labor market is strong.
authors: Dr. Cort is lead specialist in statistical analysis, Policy Research Studies, Association of American Medical Colleges, Washington, DC. Dr. Morrison is director, Policy Research Studies, Association of American Medical Colleges, Washington, DC.
authors: David A
authors: DA
authors: Cort
authors: Emory
authors: E
authors: Morrison
mesh_terms: D001741:Black or African American / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D004651:Employment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends; D005006:Ethnicity / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005260:Female; D006630:Hispanic or Latino / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D007182:Income / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D008297:Male; D012577:Schools, Medical; D012737:Sex Factors; D013337:Students, Medical / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D014478:Unemployment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D044465:White People / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D055815:Young Adult