title: Trends in AIDS incidence in individuals aged 50 years or older in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1982-2011: an age-period-cohort analysis.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of three temporal components of AIDS incidence (i.e., age, period and cohort) on individuals aged 50 or older living in Niteroi, Rio de Janeiro (Brazil).
  
  
  METHODS
  Age-specific incidence rates were calculated from 1982-2011. Negative binomial and Poisson models were used to analyze the risk of AIDS by age, period and cohort.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The risk of AIDS in men was 2.45 times higher than in women, regardless of age and period (p-value < 0.001). The incidence of AIDS in individuals older than 69 years was 7-fold lower than in those aged 50-59 years (p-value < 0.001). A decreasing trend in AIDS risk was observed from the youngest cohort (≥ 1940) to the oldest (1910-1919). From 1982 to 2006, we could detect an increasing trend in AIDS risk in the population aged 50 years or older. A peak in rates was detected in the period from 2002-2006. The incidence rates in 2002-2006 were six times higher than those in 1987-1991 (p-value < 0.001), independent of age and sex (p-value < 0.001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  An increase of AIDS risk in older people was detected. This group should not be neglected by public health programs.
authors: Pos-Graduate Program in Medical Sciences, Rio de Janeiro State University, Rio de Janeiro 20550-170, Brazil. aprattoporto@terra.com.br.
authors: Paulo Cavalcante
authors: PC
authors: Apratto Junior
authors: National School of Public Health Sergio Arouca (ENSP), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 21041-210, Brazil. mblbarros@gmail.com.
authors: Mônica Bastos
authors: MB
authors: de Lima Barros
authors: National School of Public Health Sergio Arouca (ENSP), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 21041-210, Brazil. regina.daumas@gmail.com.
authors: Regina Paiva
authors: RP
authors: Daumas
authors: National School of Public Health Sergio Arouca (ENSP), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 21041-210, Brazil. monicakra@gmail.com.
authors: Mônica Kramer
authors: MK
authors: de Noronha Andrade
authors: School of Medical Sciences, Rio de Janeiro State University, Rio de Janeiro 20550-170, Brazil. denimonteiro2@yahoo.com.br.
authors: Denise Leite Maia
authors: DL
authors: Monteiro
authors: National School of Public Health Sergio Arouca (ENSP), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 21041-210, Brazil. bvincent@lampada.uerj.br.
authors: Beatriz Rodrigues Lopes
authors: BR
authors: Vincent
authors: National School of Public Health Sergio Arouca (ENSP), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 21041-210, Brazil. valeriaslino@gmail.com.
authors: Valéria Teresa Saraiva
authors: VT
authors: Lino
authors: National School of Public Health Sergio Arouca (ENSP), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Rio de Janeiro 21041-210, Brazil. nadia@lampada.uerj.br.
authors: Nádia Cristina Pinheiro
authors: NC
authors: Rodrigues
mesh_terms: D000163:Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D017678:Sex Distribution; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors