title: Jumping to conclusions, neuropsychological functioning, and delusional beliefs in first episode psychosis.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The "jumping to conclusions" (JTC) data-gathering bias is implicated in the development and maintenance of psychosis but has only recently been studied in first episode psychosis (FEP). In this study, we set out to establish the relationship of JTC in FEP with delusions and neuropsychological functioning.
  
  
  METHODS
  One hundred and eight FEP patients and 101 age-matched controls completed assessments of delusions, general intelligence (IQ), working memory (WM), and JTC (the probabilistic reasoning "beads" task).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Half the FEP participants jumped to conclusions on at least 1 task, compared with 25% of controls (OR range 2.1 to 3.9; 95% CI range 1.5 to 8.0, P values ≤ .02). JTC was associated with clinical, but not nonclinical delusion severity, and with neuropsychological functioning, irrespective of clinical status. Both IQ and delusion severity, but not WM, were independently associated with JTC in the FEP group.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  JTC is present in FEP. The specific association of JTC with clinical delusions supports a state, maintaining role for the bias. The associations of JTC with neuropsychological functioning indicate a separable, trait aspect to the bias, which may confer vulnerability to psychosis. The work has potential to inform emerging interventions targeting reasoning biases in early psychosis.
authors: Department of Psychology, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, UK; Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, UK; aurora.falcone@kcl.ac.uk.
authors: M Aurora
authors: MA
authors: Falcone
authors: Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, UK;
authors: Robin M
authors: RM
authors: Murray
authors: Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, UK;
authors: Benjamin D R
authors: BD
authors: Wiffen
authors: Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, UK;
authors: Jennifer A
authors: JA
authors: O'Connor
authors: Department of Psychiatry, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, New York, NY;
authors: Manuela
authors: M
authors: Russo
authors: Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, UK;
authors: Anna
authors: A
authors: Kolliakou
authors: Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, UK; Department of Health Service and Population Research, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, UK;
authors: Simona
authors: S
authors: Stilo
authors: Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, UK;
authors: Heather
authors: H
authors: Taylor
authors: Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, UK;
authors: Poonam
authors: P
authors: Gardner-Sood
authors: Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, UK;
authors: Alessandra
authors: A
authors: Paparelli
authors: Department of Biostatistics, King's College London, Institute of Psychiatry, London, UK;
authors: Fatima
authors: F
authors: Jichi
authors: Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, UK;
authors: Marta
authors: M
authors: Di Forti
authors: Department of Psychosis Studies, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, UK;
authors: Anthony S
authors: AS
authors: David
authors: Department of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Warneford Hospital, Oxford, UK.
authors: Daniel
authors: D
authors: Freeman
authors: Department of Psychology, Institute of Psychiatry, King's College London, London, UK;
authors: Suzanne
authors: S
authors: Jolley
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D003702:Delusions / Q000209:etiology / Q000503:physiopathology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007360:Intelligence / Q000502:physiology*; D008297:Male; D008570:Memory, Short-Term / Q000502:physiology*; D008875:Middle Aged; D011618:Psychotic Disorders / Q000150:complications / Q000503:physiopathology*; D012559:Schizophrenia / Q000150:complications / Q000503:physiopathology*; D012720:Severity of Illness Index; D013850:Thinking / Q000502:physiology*; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: delusions; jumping to conclusions; neuropsychology; psychosis; reasoning