title: Multiyear predictability of tropical marine productivity.
abstract: With the emergence of decadal predictability simulations, research toward forecasting variations of the climate system now covers a large range of timescales. However, assessment of the capacity to predict natural variations of relevant biogeochemical variables like carbon fluxes, pH, or marine primary productivity remains unexplored. Among these, the net primary productivity (NPP) is of particular relevance in a forecasting perspective. Indeed, in regions like the tropical Pacific (30°N-30°S), NPP exhibits natural fluctuations at interannual to decadal timescales that have large impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. Here, we investigate predictions of NPP variations over the last decades (i.e., from 1997 to 2011) with an Earth system model within the tropical Pacific. Results suggest a predictive skill for NPP of 3 y, which is higher than that of sea surface temperature (1 y). We attribute the higher predictability of NPP to the poleward advection of nutrient anomalies (nitrate and iron), which sustain fluctuations in phytoplankton productivity over several years. These results open previously unidentified perspectives to the development of science-based management approaches to marine resources relying on integrated physical-biogeochemical forecasting systems.
authors: Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques-Groupe d'Etude de l'Atmosphère Météorologique/Groupe de Météorologie de Grande Echelle et Climat, 31100 Toulouse, France;Institut Pierre Simon Laplace/Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, 91191 Gif sur Yvette, France; roland.seferian@meteo.fr.
authors: Roland
authors: R
authors: Séférian
authors: Institut Pierre Simon Laplace/Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, 91191 Gif sur Yvette, France;
authors: Laurent
authors: L
authors: Bopp
authors: Institut Pierre Simon Laplace/Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, 91191 Gif sur Yvette, France;
authors: Marion
authors: M
authors: Gehlen
authors: Institut Pierre Simon Laplace/Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, 91191 Gif sur Yvette, France;Université de Bordeaux/Environnements et Paléoenvironnements Océaniques et Continentaux, 33615 Pessac, France;
authors: Didier
authors: D
authors: Swingedouw
authors: Institut Pierre Simon Laplace/Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Approches Numériques, 75252 Paris, France;Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre of Climate Change Research, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland; and.
authors: Juliette
authors: J
authors: Mignot
authors: Institut Pierre Simon Laplace/Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat: Expérimentations et Approches Numériques, 75252 Paris, France;National Centre for Atmospheric Science Climate, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, United Kingdom.
authors: Eric
authors: E
authors: Guilyardi
authors: Institut Pierre Simon Laplace/Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, 91191 Gif sur Yvette, France;
authors: Jérôme
authors: J
authors: Servonnat
mesh_terms: D000704:Analysis of Variance; D000818:Animals; D059001:Aquatic Organisms / Q000254:growth & development*; D057486:Carbon Cycle; D057231:Climate Change; D003198:Computer Simulation; D017753:Ecosystem; D005398:Fisheries; D020387:Food Chain; D005544:Forecasting; D008954:Models, Biological; D010140:Pacific Ocean; D010839:Phytoplankton / Q000254:growth & development; D012623:Seawater; D013696:Temperature; D014329:Tropical Climate
keywords: ecosystem management; forecast; marine biogeochemistry