title: A risk prediction model for smoking experimentation in Mexican American youth.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Smoking experimentation in Mexican American youth is problematic. In light of the research showing that preventing smoking experimentation is a valid strategy for smoking prevention, there is a need to identify Mexican American youth at high risk for experimentation.
  
  
  METHODS
  A prospective population-based cohort of 1,179 adolescents of Mexican descent was followed for 5 years starting in 2005-06. Participants completed a baseline interview at a home visit followed by three telephone interviews at intervals of approximately 6 months and additional interviews at two home visits in 2008-09 and 2010-11. The primary endpoint of interest in this study was smoking experimentation. Information about social, cultural, and behavioral factors (e.g., acculturation, susceptibility to experimentation, home characteristics, and household influences) was collected at baseline using validated questionnaires.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Age, sex, cognitive susceptibility, household smoking behavior, peer influence, neighborhood influence, acculturation, work characteristics, positive outcome expectations, family cohesion, degree of tension, ability to concentrate, and school discipline were found to be associated with smoking experimentation. In a validation dataset, the proposed risk prediction model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.719 (95% confidence interval, 0.637-0.801) for predicting absolute risk for smoking experimentation within 1 year.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The proposed risk prediction model is able to quantify the risk of smoking experimentation in Mexican American adolescents.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Accurately identifying Mexican American adolescents who are at higher risk for smoking experimentation who can be intervened will substantially reduce the incidence of smoking and thereby subsequent health risks.
authors: Department of Biostatistics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas.
authors: Rajesh
authors: R
authors: Talluri
authors: The University of Texas School of Public Health, Austin Regional Campus, Austin, Texas.
authors: Anna V
authors: AV
authors: Wilkinson
authors: Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas.
authors: Margaret R
authors: MR
authors: Spitz
authors: Department of Biostatistics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas. Department of Epidemiology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas. sshete@mdanderson.org.
authors: Sanjay
authors: S
authors: Shete
mesh_terms: D000069:Acculturation; D000293:Adolescent; D000294:Adolescent Behavior / Q000523:psychology*; D019540:Area Under Curve; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D017058:Mexican Americans / Q000208:ethnology / Q000523:psychology*; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012372:ROC Curve; D012307:Risk Factors; D012309:Risk-Taking; D012907:Smoking / Q000208:ethnology* / Q000523:psychology*