title: Can increased atmospheric CO2 levels trigger a runaway greenhouse?
abstract: Recent one-dimensional (globally averaged) climate model calculations by Goldblatt et al. (2013) suggest that increased atmospheric CO(2) could conceivably trigger a runaway greenhouse on present Earth if CO(2) concentrations were approximately 100 times higher than they are today. The new prediction runs contrary to previous calculations by Kasting and Ackerman (1986), which indicated that CO(2) increases could not trigger a runaway, even at Venus-like CO(2) concentrations. Goldblatt et al. argued that this different behavior is a consequence of updated absorption coefficients for H(2)O that make a runaway more likely. Here, we use a 1-D climate model with similar, up-to-date absorption coefficients, but employ a different methodology, to show that the older result is probably still valid, although our model nearly runs away at ∼12 preindustrial atmospheric levels of CO(2) when we use the most alarmist assumptions possible. However, we argue that Earth's real climate is probably stable given more realistic assumptions, although 3-D climate models will be required to verify this result. Potential CO(2) increases from fossil fuel burning are somewhat smaller than this, 10-fold or less, but such increases could still cause sufficient warming to make much of the planet uninhabitable by humans.
authors: 1 Department of Geosciences, Pennsylvania State University , University Park, Pennsylvania.
authors: Ramses M
authors: RM
authors: Ramirez
authors: Ravi Kumar
authors: RK
authors: Kopparapu
authors: Valerie
authors: V
authors: Lindner
authors: James F
authors: JF
authors: Kasting
mesh_terms: D001272:Atmosphere / Q000737:chemistry*; D002245:Carbon Dioxide / Q000737:chemistry*; D004190:Disasters; D017752:Greenhouse Effect; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014867:Water / Q000737:chemistry
chemical_list: D014867:Water; D002245:Carbon Dioxide