title: Changing crops in response to climate: virtual Nang Rong, Thailand in an agent based simulation.
abstract: The effects of extended climatic variability on agricultural land use were explored for the type of system found in villages of northeastern Thailand. An agent based model developed for the Nang Rong district was used to simulate land allotted to jasmine rice, heavy rice, cassava, and sugar cane. The land use choices in the model depended on likely economic outcomes, but included elements of bounded rationality in dependence on household demography. The socioeconomic dynamics are endogenous in the system, and climate changes were added as exogenous drivers. Villages changed their agricultural effort in many different ways. Most villages reduced the amount of land under cultivation, primarily with reduction in jasmine rice, but others did not. The variation in responses to climate change indicates potential sensitivity to initial conditions and path dependence for this type of system. The differences between our virtual villages and the real villages of the region indicate effects of bounded rationality and limits on model applications.
authors: Department of Geographical & Sustainability Sciences, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA.
authors: George P
authors: GP
authors: Malanson
authors: Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA ; Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
authors: Ashton M
authors: AM
authors: Verdery
authors: Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA ; Department of Geography, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
authors: Stephen J
authors: SJ
authors: Walsh
authors: Institute for Social and Population Research, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.
authors: Yothin
authors: Y
authors: Sawangdee
authors: Department of Geography, Central Michigan University, Mount Pleasant, MI, USA.
authors: Benjamin W
authors: BW
authors: Heumann
authors: Davis Library, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
authors: Philip M
authors: PM
authors: McDaniel
authors: Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
authors: Brian G
authors: BG
authors: Frizzelle
authors: Jackson School of International Studies, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA ; Department of Sociology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
authors: Nathalie E
authors: NE
authors: Williams
authors: Center for Natural Resources Assessment and Decision Support, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, VA USA.
authors: Xiaozheng
authors: X
authors: Yao
authors: Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA ; Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
authors: Barbara
authors: B
authors: Entwisle
authors: Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA ; Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
authors: Ronald R
authors: RR
authors: Rindfuss
keywords: Thailand; agent based model; bounded rationality; climate change; endogenous dynamics; land use change