title: Assessing risk of recidivism among juvenile offenders: the development and validation of the recidivism risk instrument.
abstract: A recidivism risk instrument was developed and validated on a sample of juvenile offenders (N = 1,987) based on the need to classify juveniles by their likelihood of re-offense. Female recidivism (R(2) = 27%) was predicted by younger age at first expulsion from school, history of parent incarceration, gang involvement, felony class offense, and firearm use. Male recidivism (R(2) = 12%) was predicted by younger age at first adjudication, referrals, school suspensions, history of maternal incarceration, firearm use, running away, gang involvement, and destroying property/stealing. Cross-validation analyses indicated that high-risk offenders recidivated at more than five times the rate of low-risk offenders.
authors.affiliation: a School of Social Work, Arizona State University , Tucson , Arizona , USA.
authors.forename: Lela Rankin
authors.initials: LR
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.forename: Craig W
authors.initials: CW
authors.lastname: LeCroy
authors.forename: John P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Vivian
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007604:Juvenile Delinquency / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends*; D008297:Male
keywords: Adolescent; gender; predictive validity; stepwise regression