title: Scenario analysis of energy-based low-carbon development in China.
abstract: China's increasing energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure have contributed not only to severe environmental pollution, but also to global climate change. This article begins with a brief review of China's primary energy use and associated environmental problems and health risks. To analyze the potential of China's transition to low-carbon development, three scenarios are constructed to simulate energy demand and CO₂ emission trends in China up to 2050 by using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model. Simulation results show that with the assumption of an average annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate of 6.45%, total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 63.4%, 48.8% and 12.2% under the Business as Usual (BaU), Carbon Reduction (CR) and Integrated Low Carbon Economy (ILCE) scenarios in 2050 from the 2009 levels. Total energy-related CO₂ emissions will increase from 6.7 billiontons in 2009 to 9.5, 11, 11.6 and 11.2 billiontons; 8.2, 9.2, 9.6 and 9 billiontons; 7.1, 7.4, 7.2 and 6.4 billiontons in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 under the BaU, CR and ILCE scenarios, respectively. Total CO₂ emission will drop by 19.6% and 42.9% under the CR and ILCE scenarios in 2050, compared with the BaU scenario. To realize a substantial cut in energy consumption and carbon emissions, China needs to make a long-term low-carbon development strategy targeting further improvement of energy efficiency, optimization of energy structure, deployment of clean coal technology and use of market-based economic instruments like energy/carbon taxation.
authors.affiliation: School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China. Electronic address: zhouyun@craes.org.cn.
authors.forename: Yun
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China. Electronic address: fanghua@bnu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Fanghua
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Hao
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China.
authors.forename: Wei
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Meng
authors.affiliation: School of Environment, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
authors.forename: Jiafeng
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Fu
mesh_terms: D002244:Carbon / Q000737:chemistry*; D002681:China; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D004736:Energy-Generating Resources; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D002244:Carbon
keywords: Climate change; Energy consumption; Environmental pollution; Low-carbon development