title: Prediction of new onset atrial fibrillation through P wave analysis in 12 lead ECG.
abstract: It is unknown whether 12-lead ECG can predict new-onset AF. In the present study, we identified patients with new onset AF from our digitally stored ECG database, and the P wave morphologies were analyzed in their preceding sinus rhythm recordings as the precursor state for AF. The P wave was analyzed in the most recent ECG recording of sinus rhythm preceding new onset AF within 12 months. The duration and amplitude of P waves were analyzed in 12 leads and compared between the 2 groups with the other clinical parameters. The study population consisted of 68 patients with new-onset AF and 68 age and sex-matched controls. Multivariate analysis revealed that the P wave amplitude in leads II and V1 (0.157 ± 0.056 versus 0.115 ± 0.057 mV, P = 0.032, and 0.146 ± 0.089 versus 0.095 ± 0.036 mV, P = 0.002) and P wave dispersion (56.9 ± 14.8 versus 33.5 ± 12.9 ms, P = 0.001) were significant independent factors for the prediction of new-onset AF. By using these factors, new-onset AF could be predicted with a sensitivity of 69.1% and specificity of 88.2%. P wave analysis is useful for predicting new onset AF.
authors.affiliation: Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Kitasato University School of Medicine.
authors.forename: Tomoharu
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Yoshizawa
authors.forename: Shinichi
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Niwano
authors.forename: Hiroe
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Niwano
authors.forename: Tazuru
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Igarashi
authors.forename: Tamami
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Fujiishi
authors.forename: Naruya
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Ishizue
authors.forename: Jun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Oikawa
authors.forename: Akira
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Satoh
authors.forename: Sayaka
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kurokawa
authors.forename: Yuko
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hatakeyama
authors.forename: Hidehira
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Fukaya
authors.forename: Junya
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Ako
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D001281:Atrial Fibrillation / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000503:physiopathology; D004562:Electrocardiography; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006325:Heart Atria / Q000503:physiopathology*; D006329:Heart Conduction System / Q000503:physiopathology*; D006339:Heart Rate / Q000502:physiology*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012189:Retrospective Studies