title: Strategic foresight: how planning for the unpredictable can improve environmental decision-making.
abstract: Advanced warning of potential new opportunities and threats related to biodiversity allows decision-makers to act strategically to maximize benefits or minimize costs. Strategic foresight explores possible futures, their consequences for decisions, and the actions that promote more desirable futures. Foresight tools, such as horizon scanning and scenario planning, are increasingly used by governments and business for long-term strategic planning and capacity building. These tools are now being applied in ecology, although generally not as part of a comprehensive foresight strategy. We highlight several ways foresight could play a more significant role in environmental decisions by: monitoring existing problems, highlighting emerging threats, identifying promising new opportunities, testing the resilience of policies, and defining a research agenda.
authors.affiliation: School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton, Victoria 3800, Australia; School of Botany, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia. Electronic address: carly.cook@monash.edu.
authors.forename: Carly N
authors.initials: CN
authors.lastname: Cook
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, University of the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore DC, Queensland 4558, Australia; Centre for Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism, Faculty of Arts, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales 2109, Australia.
authors.forename: Sohail
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Inayatullah
authors.affiliation: School of Botany, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia.
authors.forename: Mark A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Burgman
authors.affiliation: Conservation Science Group, Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK.
authors.forename: William J
authors.initials: WJ
authors.lastname: Sutherland
authors.affiliation: School of Botany, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3010, Australia.
authors.forename: Brendan A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Wintle
mesh_terms: D044822:Biodiversity; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000639:trends*; D003657:Decision Making; D004463:Ecology; D004777:Environment; D058735:Environmental Policy / Q000639:trends; D005544:Forecasting; D010934:Planning Techniques
keywords: alternative futures; causal layered analysis; conservation; conservation policy; decision-making; environmental futures; futures research; futures studies; strategic thinking