title: Regional risk assessment for point source pollution based on a water quality model of the Taipu River, China.
abstract: Point source pollution is one of the main threats to regional environmental health. Based on a water quality model, a methodology to assess the regional risk of point source pollution is proposed. The assessment procedure includes five parts: (1) identifying risk source units and estimating source emissions using Monte Carlo algorithms; (2) observing hydrological and water quality data of the assessed area, and evaluating the selected water quality model; (3) screening out the assessment endpoints and analyzing receptor vulnerability with the Choquet fuzzy integral algorithm; (4) using the water quality model introduced in the second step to predict pollutant concentrations for various source emission scenarios and analyzing hazards of risk sources; and finally, (5) using the source hazard values and receptor vulnerability scores to estimate overall regional risk. The proposed method, based on the Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP), was applied in the region of the Taipu River, which is in the Taihu Basin, China. Results of source hazard and receptor vulnerability analysis allowed us to describe aquatic ecological, human health, and socioeconomic risks individually, and also integrated risks in the Taipu region, from a series of risk curves. Risk contributions of sources to receptors were ranked, and the spatial distribution of risk levels was presented. By changing the input conditions, we were able to estimate risks for a range of scenarios. Thus, the proposed procedure may also be used by decisionmakers for long-term dynamic risk prediction.
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control and Resource Reuse, School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China; School of Geography, Nantong University, Nantong, 226001, China.
authors.forename: Hong
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Yao
authors.forename: Xin
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Qian
authors.forename: Hong
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Yin
authors.forename: Hailong
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Gao
authors.forename: Yulei
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Wang
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D002681:China; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D045483:Rivers / Q000737:chemistry; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000032:analysis; D014876:Water Pollution / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000032:analysis / Q000517:prevention & control; D060753:Water Quality
chemical_list: D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical
keywords: Point source pollution; regional risk assessment; risk curves; risk prevention water quality model