title: A spatio-temporal model for estimating the long-term effects of air pollution on respiratory hospital admissions in Greater London.
abstract: It has long been known that air pollution is harmful to human health, as many epidemiological studies have been conducted into its effects. Collectively, these studies have investigated both the acute and chronic effects of pollution, with the latter typically based on individual level cohort designs that can be expensive to implement. As a result of the increasing availability of small-area statistics, ecological spatio-temporal study designs are also being used, with which a key statistical problem is allowing for residual spatio-temporal autocorrelation that remains after the covariate effects have been removed. We present a new model for estimating the effects of air pollution on human health, which allows for residual spatio-temporal autocorrelation, and a study into the long-term effects of air pollution on human health in Greater London, England. The individual and joint effects of different pollutants are explored, via the use of single pollutant models and multiple pollutant indices.
authors.affiliation: School of Mathematics and Statistics, University Gardens, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QW, UK. Electronic address: alastair.rushworth@glasgow.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Alastair
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rushworth
authors.affiliation: School of Mathematics and Statistics, University Gardens, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QW, UK.
authors.forename: Duncan
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Public Health and Health Policy, University of Glasgow, UK.
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Mitchell
mesh_terms: D000397:Air Pollution / Q000009:adverse effects*; D001982:Bronchial Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology / Q000517:prevention & control; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000009:adverse effects; D006801:Humans; D008131:London / Q000453:epidemiology; D010343:Patient Admission / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D062211:Spatio-Temporal Analysis
keywords: Air pollution; Gaussian Markov Random Fields; Respiratory disease; Spatio-temporal autocorrelation