title: Reconciling discrepancies between registration-based and survey-based estimates of fertility in Mongolia.
abstract: The two main data sources for the estimation of total fertility in Mongolia give figures that differ by between one-half and one child per woman. We investigated two possible explanations for these discrepancies: (i) that data on births collected in the vital registration system are incomplete and under-estimate fertility; and (ii) that fertility is over-estimated when estimates are based on data from sample surveys. We find that the under-counting of single women is the main source of the discrepancies. After adjustment, survey-based fertility estimates are very close to the figures based on data from the vital registration system. The analysis underscores the risks of taking survey-based demographic indicators as the 'Gold Standard'. Demographers need to undertake more systematic studies on this important issue.
authors.affiliation: a United Nations Statistics Division.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Spoorenberg
mesh_terms: D015982:Bias; D001723:Birth Rate; D019352:Censuses; D003710:Demography / Q000592:standards*; D003906:Developing Countries; D005260:Female; D005298:Fertility; D006801:Humans; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008986:Mongolia / Q000453:epidemiology; D011157:Population Dynamics
keywords: Mongolia; adjustment; bias; estimation; fertility; survey; vital registration