title: Bayesian tracking of emerging epidemics using ensemble optimal statistical interpolation.
abstract: We present a preliminary test of the Ensemble Optimal Statistical Interpolation (EnOSI) method for the statistical tracking of an emerging epidemic, with a comparison to its popular relative for Bayesian data assimilation, the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). The spatial data for this test was generated by a spatial susceptible-infectious-removed (S-I-R) epidemic model of an airborne infectious disease. Both tracking methods in this test employed Poisson rather than Gaussian noise, so as to handle epidemic data more accurately. The EnOSI and EnKF tracking methods worked well on the main body of the simulated spatial epidemic, but the EnOSI was able to detect and track a distant secondary focus of infection that the EnKF missed entirely.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Colorado Denver, Campus Box 170, PO Box 173364, Denver, CO 80217-3364, USA.
authors.forename: Loren
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Cobb
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, Physics and Engineering, Mount Royal University, Calgary, Alberta T3E 6K6, Canada. Electronic address: akrishnamurthy@mtroyal.ca.
authors.forename: Ashok
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Krishnamurthy
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Colorado Denver, Campus Box 170, PO Box 173364, Denver, CO 80217-3364, USA.
authors.forename: Jan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Mandel
authors.affiliation: CERFACS, 42 Avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse Cedex 1, France.
authors.forename: Jonathan D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Beezley
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D021821:Communicable Diseases, Emerging / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D058872:Epidemics; D014943:Global Health; D006801:Humans; D062206:Spatial Analysis
keywords: Bayesian statistical tracking; Data assimilation; Emerging epidemics; Ensemble Kalman filter; Optimal statistical interpolation; Spatial S-I-R epidemic model
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