title: The effect of meteorological factors on adolescent hand, foot, and mouth disease and associated effect modifiers.
abstract: Background : Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a contagious viral illness that commonly affects infants and children. This infection is an emerging infectious disease in Rizhao in recent years. The present study examined the short-term effects of meteorological factors on adolescent HFMD in Rizhao. Design : A generalized additive Poisson model was applied to estimate the effects of meteorological factors on adolescent HFMD occurrence in 2010-2012. Subgroup analyses were also conducted to examine the potential effect modifiers of the association in terms of age, sex, and occupation. Results : A positive effect of temperature was observed (ER [excess risk]=1.93%, 95% CI: 1.05 to 2.82% for 1°C increase on lag 5 day). A negative effect of relative humidity at lag 1 day and positive effects were found on lag 5-7 days, and an adverse effect was observed for sunshine at lag days 3-4 (ER=-0.71%, 95% CI: -1.25 to -0.17% on lag day 4). We also found that age, sex, and occupation might be important effect modifiers of the effects of weather variables on HFMD. Conclusions : This study suggests that meteorological factors might be an important predictor of adolescent HFMD occurrence in Rizhao. Age, sex, and occupation might be important effect modifiers of the effects.
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory for Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Haixia
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.affiliation: Qilu Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
authors.forename: Hongchun
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Qilu Hospital, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
authors.forename: Qingzhou
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Shandong Academy of Occupational Health and Occupational Medicine, Jinan, China.
authors.forename: Qinghua
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Xin
authors.affiliation: Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, China; linhualiang2002@163.com.
authors.forename: Hualiang
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Lin
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006232:Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology; D006801:Humans; D006813:Humidity; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D013696:Temperature
keywords: hand, foot and mouth disease; mean temperature; relative humidity; weather
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