title: Simulating population genetics of pathogen vectors in changing landscapes: guidelines and application with Triatoma brasiliensis.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Understanding the mechanisms that influence the population dynamics and spatial genetic structure of the vectors of pathogens infecting humans is a central issue in tropical epidemiology. In view of the rapid changes in the features of landscape pathogen vectors live in, this issue requires new methods that consider both natural and human systems and their interactions. In this context, individual-based model (IBM) simulations represent powerful yet poorly developed approaches to explore the response of pathogen vectors in heterogeneous social-ecological systems, especially when field experiments cannot be performed.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We first present guidelines for the use of a spatially explicit IBM, to simulate population genetics of pathogen vectors in changing landscapes. We then applied our model with Triatoma brasiliensis, originally restricted to sylvatic habitats and now found in peridomestic and domestic habitats, posing as the most important Trypanosoma cruzi vector in Northeastern Brazil. We focused on the effects of vector migration rate, maximum dispersal distance and attraction by domestic habitat on T. brasiliensis population dynamics and spatial genetic structure. Optimized for T. brasiliensis using field data pairwise fixation index (FST) from microsatellite loci, our simulations confirmed the importance of these three variables to understand vector genetic structure at the landscape level. We then ran prospective scenarios accounting for land-use change (deforestation and urbanization), which revealed that human-induced land-use change favored higher genetic diversity among sampling points.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our work shows that mechanistic models may be useful tools to link observed patterns with processes involved in the population genetics of tropical pathogen vectors in heterogeneous social-ecological landscapes. Our hope is that our study may provide a testable and applicable modeling framework to a broad community of epidemiologists for formulating scenarios of landscape change consequences on vector dynamics, with potential implications for their surveillance and control.
authors.affiliation: BEI-UR072, IRD, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; LEGS-UPR9034, CNRS-UPSud11, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
authors.forename: Francois
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Rebaudo
authors.affiliation: Laboratório de Biodiversidade Entomológica, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz - Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brasil.
authors.forename: Jane
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Costa
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Ciências Biológicas, Faculdade de Ciências Farmacêuticas, UNESP, Araraquara, Sao Paolo, Brasil.
authors.forename: Carlos E
authors.initials: CE
authors.lastname: Almeida
authors.affiliation: BEI-UR072, IRD, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; LEGS-UPR9034, CNRS-UPSud11, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
authors.forename: Jean-Francois
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Silvain
authors.affiliation: LEGS-UPR9034, CNRS-UPSud11, Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
authors.forename: Myriam
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Harry
authors.affiliation: BEI-UR072, IRD, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; LEGS-UPR9034, CNRS-UPSud11, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Instituto de Ecología, Campus Cotacota, Universidad Mayor San Andrés, La Paz, Bolivia.
authors.forename: Olivier
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Dangles
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D014355:Chagas Disease / Q000635:transmission*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004463:Ecology; D005828:Genetics, Population; D017408:Guidelines as Topic; D006801:Humans; D007303:Insect Vectors / Q000235:genetics*; D011157:Population Dynamics; D011446:Prospective Studies; D014224:Triatoma / Q000235:genetics*; D014349:Trypanosoma cruzi / Q000235:genetics
references.citation: Environ Health Perspect. 2010 Nov;118(11):1507-14
references.pmid: 20576580
references.citation: PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2010 Oct 26;4(10):e761
references.pmid: 21049062
references.citation: PLoS Pathog. 2011 Apr;7(4):e1002013
references.pmid: 21552326
references.citation: Med Vet Entomol. 1988 Oct;2(4):401-4
references.pmid: 2980200
references.citation: Mol Ecol Resour. 2010 May;10(3):564-7
references.pmid: 21565059
references.citation: Mol Ecol. 2010 Sep;19(17):3515-31
references.pmid: 20618897
references.citation: Genetics. 2013 Mar;193(3):973-84
references.pmid: 23307902
references.citation: Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz. 2000 Mar-Apr;95(2):151-5
references.pmid: 10733731
references.citation: J Med Entomol. 2000 Nov;37(6):872-7
references.pmid: 11126543
references.citation: Trends Ecol Evol. 2009 Jan;24(1):21-30
references.pmid: 19027985
references.citation: Mol Ecol. 2010 Sep;19(17):3549-64
references.pmid: 20618894
references.citation: Annu Rev Entomol. 2010;55:461-83
references.pmid: 19737082
references.citation: Glob Chang Biol. 2013 Jun;19(6):1804-15
references.pmid: 23505132
references.citation: Epidemiol Infect. 2007 Nov;135(8):1231-47
references.pmid: 17445320
references.citation: Mol Ecol Resour. 2010 Sep;10(5):854-62
references.pmid: 21565096
references.citation: PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2010 Mar 16;4(3):e634
references.pmid: 20300516
references.citation: Science. 2008 Jan 11;319(5860):169-72
references.pmid: 18048654
references.citation: Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz. 2011 Mar;106(2):232-9
references.pmid: 21537686
references.citation: Genetics. 1931 Mar;16(2):97-159
references.pmid: 17246615
references.citation: Infect Genet Evol. 2009 Jul;9(4):633-7
references.pmid: 19460330
references.citation: Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz. 1998 Jan-Feb;93(1):7-13
references.pmid: 9698835
references.citation: J Med Entomol. 2010 Jan;47(1):80-8
references.pmid: 20180312
references.citation: Annu Rev Phytopathol. 2012;50:379-402
references.pmid: 22681449
references.citation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 May 14;99 Suppl 3:7280-7
references.pmid: 12011407
references.citation: Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2008 May;78(5):791-802
references.pmid: 18458315
references.citation: PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2012;6(4):e1603
references.pmid: 22545168
references.citation: Science. 1994 Feb 4;263(5147):641-6
references.pmid: 17747657
references.citation: PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2010 Aug 03;4(8):e777
references.pmid: 20689823
references.citation: N Engl J Med. 2007 Sep 6;357(10):1018-27
references.pmid: 17804846
references.citation: PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2012;6(5):e1498
references.pmid: 22666504
references.citation: Nat Rev Genet. 2012 Jan 10;13(2):110-22
references.pmid: 22230817
references.citation: Biol Rev Camb Philos Soc. 2013 May;88(2):427-42
references.pmid: 23279314
references.citation: Mol Ecol. 2010 May;19(10):2011-24
references.pmid: 20406383
references.citation: PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2012;6(11):e1884
references.pmid: 23166846
references.citation: Heredity (Edinb). 1999 Feb;82 ( Pt 2):117-25
references.pmid: 10098262
references.citation: Environ Health Perspect. 2004 Jul;112(10):1092-8
references.pmid: 15238283
references.citation: PLoS One. 2012;7(4):e36207
references.pmid: 22558384
references.citation: Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz. 2003 Jun;98(4):443-9
references.pmid: 12937751
references.citation: Mol Ecol. 2009 May;18(9):1821-2
references.pmid: 19302466
references.citation: Acta Trop. 2007 Feb;101(2):115-9
references.pmid: 17292320
references.citation: Infect Genet Evol. 2008 Sep;8(5):672-5
references.pmid: 18571993
references.citation: Acta Trop. 2005 Jan;93(1):119-26
references.pmid: 15589804
references.citation: Acta Trop. 2006 Mar;97(3):324-30
references.pmid: 16460653
references.citation: J Vector Ecol. 2010 Dec;35(2):385-94
references.pmid: 21175946