title: Win-Stay, Lose-Sample: a simple sequential algorithm for approximating Bayesian inference.
abstract: People can behave in a way that is consistent with Bayesian models of cognition, despite the fact that performing exact Bayesian inference is computationally challenging. What algorithms could people be using to make this possible? We show that a simple sequential algorithm "Win-Stay, Lose-Sample", inspired by the Win-Stay, Lose-Shift (WSLS) principle, can be used to approximate Bayesian inference. We investigate the behavior of adults and preschoolers on two causal learning tasks to test whether people might use a similar algorithm. These studies use a "mini-microgenetic method", investigating how people sequentially update their beliefs as they encounter new evidence. Experiment 1 investigates a deterministic causal learning scenario and Experiments 2 and 3 examine how people make inferences in a stochastic scenario. The behavior of adults and preschoolers in these experiments is consistent with our Bayesian version of the WSLS principle. This algorithm provides both a practical method for performing Bayesian inference and a new way to understand people's judgments.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, Rutgers University - Newark, Newark, NJ USA. Electronic address: elizabeth.bonawitz@rutgers.edu.
authors.forename: Elizabeth
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Bonawitz
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON Canada.
authors.forename: Stephanie
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Denison
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley, USA.
authors.forename: Alison
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gopnik
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of California, Berkeley, USA.
authors.forename: Thomas L
authors.initials: TL
authors.lastname: Griffiths
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002675:Child, Preschool; D032882:Comprehension; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007600:Judgment; D007858:Learning; D008297:Male; D011340:Problem Solving; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Algorithmic level; Bayesian inference; Causal learning