title: Beyond Self-Reports: Changes in Biomarkers as Predictors of Mortality.
abstract: The proliferation of biosocial surveys has increased the importance of weighing the costs and benefits of adding biomarker collection to population-based surveys. A crucial question is whether biomarkers offer incremental value beyond self-reported measures, which are easier to collect and impose less respondent burden. We use longitudinal data from a nationally representative sample of older Taiwanese (n= 639, aged 54+ in 2000, examined in 2000 and 2006 with mortality follow-up through 2011) to address that question with respect to predicting all-cause mortality. A summary measure of biomarkers improves mortality prediction (as measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) compared with self-reports alone, but individual biomarkers perform better than the summary score. We find that incorporating change in biomarkers over a six-year period yields a small improvement in mortality prediction compared with one-time measurement. But, is the incremental value worth the costs?
authors.affiliation: Senior Research Investigator, Center for Population and Health, Georgetown University.
authors.forename: Dana A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Glei
authors.affiliation: Hughes-Rogers Professor of Demography and Public Affairs, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.
authors.forename: Noreen
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Goldman
authors.affiliation: Senior Research Demographer, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.
authors.forename: Germán
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Rodríguez
authors.affiliation: Distinguished Professor, Center for Population and Health, Georgetown University.
authors.forename: Maxine
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Weinstein
references.citation: News Physiol Sci. 2000 Jun;15:107-113
references.pmid: 11390891
references.citation: Stat Med. 2008 Jan 30;27(2):157-72; discussion 207-12
references.pmid: 17569110
references.citation: J Hypertens. 2003 Nov;21(11):1983-92
references.pmid: 14597836
references.citation: Arch Gerontol Geriatr. 2007 Nov-Dec;45(3):327-34
references.pmid: 17383026
references.citation: J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2006 Oct;61(10):1070-4
references.pmid: 17077201
references.citation: Am J Med. 2006 Jun;119(6):519-25
references.pmid: 16750966
references.citation: JAMA. 2012 Jan 11;307(2):182-92
references.pmid: 22235089
references.citation: PLoS Med. 2010 Jul 27;7(7):e1000316
references.pmid: 20668659
references.citation: Soc Sci Med. 2005 Feb;60(3):457-70
references.pmid: 15550295
references.citation: J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2004 Dec;59(12):1295-303
references.pmid: 15699529
references.citation: Neurosci Biobehav Rev. 2010 Sep;35(1):2-16
references.pmid: 19822172
references.citation: J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2009 Dec;64(12):1251-61
references.pmid: 19723772
references.citation: Stat Med. 2004 Jul 15;23(13):2109-23
references.pmid: 15211606
references.citation: CMAJ. 2006 Feb 14;174(4):461-6
references.pmid: 16477056
references.citation: J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 2009 Nov;64 Suppl 1:i38-46
references.pmid: 19508982
references.citation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2001 Apr 10;98(8):4770-5
references.pmid: 11287659
references.citation: Am J Epidemiol. 2012 Sep 15;176(6):473-81
references.pmid: 22875755
references.citation: Public Health Rep. 2010 Nov-Dec;125(6):810-6
references.pmid: 21121226
references.citation: JAMA. 1998 Feb 25;279(8):585-92
references.pmid: 9486752
references.citation: JAMA. 2005 Apr 6;293(13):1609-16
references.pmid: 15811980
references.citation: J Aging Health. 2010 Dec;22(8):1059-80
references.pmid: 20876364
references.citation: JAMA. 2003 May 21;289(19):2560-72
references.pmid: 12748199
references.citation: Demography. 2010;47 Suppl:S41-64
references.pmid: 21302421
references.citation: J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2009 Feb;64(2):286-92
references.pmid: 19196637
references.citation: Soc Sci Med. 2004 May;58(10):1985-97
references.pmid: 15020014
references.citation: Am J Epidemiol. 2009 Mar 15;169(6):769-79
references.pmid: 19147742
references.citation: J Gen Intern Med. 2009 Oct;24(10):1115-22
references.pmid: 19649678
references.citation: Psychosom Med. 2006 May-Jun;68(3):500-7
references.pmid: 16738085
references.citation: Ann Intern Med. 2003 Jul 15;139(2):137-47
references.pmid: 12859163
references.citation: Ann Epidemiol. 2012 Jan;22(1):57-65
references.pmid: 21982128
references.citation: Nephron. 1976;16(1):31-41
references.pmid: 1244564
references.citation: Popul Health Metr. 2012 Jun 13;10(1):11
references.pmid: 22694922
references.citation: Circulation. 2003 Jan 28;107(3):499-511
references.pmid: 12551878
references.citation: J Clin Epidemiol. 2003 Feb;56(2):148-54
references.pmid: 12654409
references.citation: Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2006 Sep 19;103(38):14158-63
references.pmid: 16983099
references.citation: Endocr Pract. 2007 May-Jun;13 Suppl 1:1-68
references.pmid: 17613449
references.citation: Arch Intern Med. 1993 Sep 27;153(18):2093-101
references.pmid: 8379800
references.citation: Age (Dordr). 2010 Dec;32(4):521-34
references.pmid: 20514522
references.citation: Annu Rev Psychol. 2014;65:719-42
references.pmid: 24405364
references.citation: Exp Gerontol. 2006 Sep;41(9):862-70
references.pmid: 16908111
references.citation: BMC Geriatr. 2010 Aug 17;10:55
references.pmid: 20716351
references.citation: Obes Res. 1998 Sep;6 Suppl 2:51S-209S
references.pmid: 9813653
references.citation: Stat Med. 2010 Jun 30;29(14):1502-10
references.pmid: 20087877
references.citation: BMC Med Res Methodol. 2011 Jul 12;11:103
references.pmid: 21749697
references.citation: Stat Methods Med Res. 1999 Mar;8(1):3-15
references.pmid: 10347857
references.citation: Natl Vital Stat Rep. 2012 Oct 10;61(6):1-51
references.pmid: 24984457
references.citation: J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci. 2013 Jun;68(6):667-74
references.pmid: 23213031
references.citation: Circulation. 1999 Sep 14;100(11):1148-50
references.pmid: 10484532
references.citation: JAMA. 2006 Feb 15;295(7):801-8
references.pmid: 16478903
references.citation: Am J Hum Biol. 2010 Jul-Aug;22(4):463-72
references.pmid: 20039257
references.citation: Med Care. 2004 Jan;42(1):19-27
references.pmid: 14713736
references.citation: N Engl J Med. 2006 Dec 21;355(25):2631-9
references.pmid: 17182988