title: Quantification and probabilistic modeling of CRT obsolescence for the State of Delaware.
abstract: The cessation of production and replacement of cathode ray tube (CRT) displays with flat screen displays have resulted in the proliferation of CRTs in the electronic waste (e-waste) recycle stream. However, due to the nature of the technology and presence of hazardous components such as lead, CRTs are the most challenging of electronic components to recycle. In the State of Delaware it is due to this challenge and the resulting expense combined with the large quantities of CRTs in the recycle stream that electronic recyclers now charge to accept Delaware's e-waste. Therefore it is imperative that the Delaware Solid Waste Authority (DSWA) understand future quantities of CRTs entering the waste stream. This study presents the results of an assessment of CRT obsolescence in the State of Delaware. A prediction model was created utilizing publicized sales data, a variety of lifespan data as well as historic Delaware CRT collection rates. Both a deterministic and a probabilistic approach using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) were performed to forecast rates of CRT obsolescence to be anticipated in the State of Delaware. Results indicate that the peak of CRT obsolescence in Delaware has already passed, although CRTs are anticipated to enter the waste stream likely until 2033.
authors.affiliation: Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, University of Delaware, 278 Graham Hall, Newark, 19716, United States. Electronic address: kschum@udel.edu.
authors.forename: Kelsea A
authors.initials: KA
authors.lastname: Schumacher
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Delaware, Newark, 19711, United States. Electronic address: schumact@udel.edu.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Schumacher
authors.affiliation: Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, University of Delaware, 272 Graham Hall, Newark, 19716, United States. Electronic address: agbe@udel.edu.
authors.forename: Lawrence
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Agbemabiese
mesh_terms: D055984:Cathode Ray Tube; D003691:Delaware; D059029:Electronic Waste / Q000032:analysis*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D059027:Recycling / Q000379:methods*; D012037:Refuse Disposal / Q000379:methods*
keywords: CRT obsolescence; Electronic waste (e-waste); Monte Carlo simulation; Probabilistic forecasting; Resource recovery; e-Waste collection and recycling