title: Shaping zoonosis risk: landscape ecology vs. landscape attractiveness for people, the case of tick-borne encephalitis in Sweden.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  In this paper, the hazard and exposure concepts from risk assessment are applied in an innovative approach to understand zoonotic disease risk. Hazard is here related to the landscape ecology determining where the hosts, vectors and pathogens are and, exposure is defined as the attractiveness and accessibility to hazardous areas. Tick-borne encephalitis in Sweden was used as a case study.
  
  
  METHODS
  Three boosted regression tree models are compared: a hazard model, an exposure model and a global model which combines the two approaches.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The global model offers the best predictive power and the most accurate modelling. The highest probabilities were found in easy-to-reach places with high landscape diversity, holiday houses, waterbodies and, well-connected forests of oak, birch or pine, with open-area in their ecotones, a complex shape, numerous clear-cuts and, a variation in tree height.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  While conditions for access and use of hazardous areas are quite specific to Scandinavia, this study offers promising perspectives to improve our understanding of the distribution of zoonotic and vector-borne diseases in diverse contexts.
authors.affiliation: Earth and Life Institute, Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research (TECLIM), Université Catholique de Louvain (UCL), GEOG, Place Louis Pasteur 3 bte L4,03,07, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. caroline.zeimes@uclouvain.be.
authors.forename: Caroline B
authors.initials: CB
authors.lastname: Zeimes
authors.forename: Gert E
authors.initials: GE
authors.lastname: Olsson
authors.forename: Marika
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hjertqvist
authors.forename: Sophie O
authors.initials: SO
authors.lastname: Vanwambeke
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D019540:Area Under Curve; D017753:Ecosystem; D004675:Encephalitis, Tick-Borne / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D065928:Forests; D006798:Housing; D006802:Human Activities; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D025341:Principal Component Analysis; D012044:Regression Analysis; D012307:Risk Factors; D013548:Sweden / Q000453:epidemiology; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000517:prevention & control*