title: A history of outcome prediction in the ICU.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  There are few first-hand accounts that describe the history of outcome prediction in critical care. This review summarizes the authors' personal perspectives about the development and evolution of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation over the past 35 years.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We emphasize what we have learned in the past and more recently our perspectives about the current status of outcome prediction, and speculate about the future of outcome prediction.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  There is increasing evidence that superior accuracy in outcome prediction requires complex modeling with detailed adjustment for diagnosis and physiologic abnormalities. Thus, an automated electronic system is recommended for gathering data and generating predictions. Support, either public or private, is required to assist users and to update and improve models. Current outcome prediction models have increasingly focused on benchmarks for resource use, a trend that seems likely to increase in the future.
authors.affiliation: aAnesthesiology and Critical Care Medicine, The George Washington University, Washington, District of Columbia bCerner Corporation, Vienna, Virginia, USA.
authors.forename: Jack E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Zimmerman
authors.forename: Andrew A
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Kramer
mesh_terms: D018806:APACHE; D019985:Benchmarking; D003422:Critical Care / Q000266:history / Q000458:organization & administration / Q000639:trends; D049673:History, 20th Century; D049674:History, 21st Century; D006801:Humans; D007362:Intensive Care Units / Q000458:organization & administration / Q000592:standards / Q000639:trends; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care / Q000458:organization & administration; D011379:Prognosis; D020379:Risk Adjustment; D012720:Severity of Illness Index