title: Does aquaculture add resilience to the global food system?
abstract: Aquaculture is the fastest growing food sector and continues to expand alongside terrestrial crop and livestock production. Using portfolio theory as a conceptual framework, we explore how current interconnections between the aquaculture, crop, livestock, and fisheries sectors act as an impediment to, or an opportunity for, enhanced resilience in the global food system given increased resource scarcity and climate change. Aquaculture can potentially enhance resilience through improved resource use efficiencies and increased diversification of farmed species, locales of production, and feeding strategies. However, aquaculture's reliance on terrestrial crops and wild fish for feeds, its dependence on freshwater and land for culture sites, and its broad array of environmental impacts diminishes its ability to add resilience. Feeds for livestock and farmed fish that are fed rely largely on the same crops, although the fraction destined for aquaculture is presently small (∼4%). As demand for high-value fed aquaculture products grows, competition for these crops will also rise, as will the demand for wild fish as feed inputs. Many of these crops and forage fish are also consumed directly by humans and provide essential nutrition for low-income households. Their rising use in aquafeeds has the potential to increase price levels and volatility, worsening food insecurity among the most vulnerable populations. Although the diversification of global food production systems that includes aquaculture offers promise for enhanced resilience, such promise will not be realized if government policies fail to provide adequate incentives for resource efficiency, equity, and environmental protection.
authors.affiliation: Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, SE-104 05 Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden; max@beijer.kva.se.
authors.forename: Max
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Troell
authors.affiliation: Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;
authors.forename: Rosamond L
authors.initials: RL
authors.lastname: Naylor
authors.affiliation: Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden;
authors.forename: Marc
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Metian
authors.affiliation: The Worldfish Center, Penang, Malaysia;
authors.forename: Malcolm
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Beveridge
authors.affiliation: School for Resource and Environmental Studies, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, Canada B3H 3J5;
authors.forename: Peter H
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5150-0756
authors.initials: PH
authors.lastname: Tyedmers
authors.affiliation: Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, SE-104 05 Stockholm, Sweden; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden;
authors.forename: Carl
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Folke
authors.affiliation: Economics Department, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;
authors.forename: Kenneth J
authors.initials: KJ
authors.lastname: Arrow
authors.affiliation: Earth Institute and School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027;
authors.forename: Scott
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Barrett
authors.affiliation: Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, SE-104 05 Stockholm, Sweden;
authors.forename: Anne-Sophie
authors.initials: AS
authors.lastname: Crépin
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305;
authors.forename: Paul R
authors.initials: PR
authors.lastname: Ehrlich
authors.affiliation: Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, SE-104 05 Stockholm, Sweden;
authors.forename: Asa
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gren
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology, Environment and Plant Sciences, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden;
authors.forename: Nils
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Kautsky
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544;
authors.forename: Simon A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Levin
authors.affiliation: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, Blindern, NO-0317 Oslo, Norway;
authors.forename: Karine
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Nyborg
authors.affiliation: Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden;
authors.forename: Henrik
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Österblom
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108;
authors.forename: Stephen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Polasky
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 DD, Wageningen, The Netherlands;
authors.forename: Marten
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Scheffer
authors.affiliation: The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Sustainable Ecosystems, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia;
authors.forename: Brian H
authors.initials: BH
authors.lastname: Walker
authors.affiliation: Department of International and European Economic Studies, Athens University of Economics and Business, GR10434 Athens, Greece; and.
authors.forename: Tasos
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Xepapadeas
authors.affiliation: Center for Economic Research and Tilburg Sustainability Center, Tilburg University, 5000 LE, Tilburg, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Aart
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: de Zeeuw
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture; D000818:Animals; D017756:Aquaculture; D018556:Crops, Agricultural / Q000254:growth & development; D005502:Food / Q000191:economics; D005523:Food Supply; D006801:Humans; D038622:Internationality
keywords: crop resources; diversity; food portfolio management; global change; shocks