title: Measuring the burden of disease due to climate change and developing a forecast model in South Korea.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Climate change influences human health in various ways, and quantitative assessments of the effect of climate change on health at national level are becoming essential for environmental health management.
  
  
  METHODS
  This study quantified the burden of disease attributable to climate change in Korea using disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and projected how this would change over time.
  
  
  METHODS
  Diseases related to climate change in Korea were selected, and meteorological data for each risk factor of climate change were collected. Mortality was calculated, and a database of incidence and prevalence was established. After measuring the burden of each disease, the total burden of disease related to climate change was assessed by multiplying population-attributable fractions. Finally, an estimation model for the burden of disease was built based on Korean climate data.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The total burden of disease related to climate change in Korea was 6.85 DALY/1000 population in 2008. Cerebrovascular diseases induced by heat waves accounted for 72.1% of the total burden of disease (hypertensive disease 1.82 DALY/1000 population, ischaemic heart disease 1.56 DALY/1000 population, cerebrovascular disease 1.56 DALY/1000 population). According to the estimation model, the total burden of disease will be 11.48 DALY/1000 population in 2100, which is twice the total burden of disease in 2008.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study quantified the burden of disease caused by climate change in Korea, and provides valuable information for determining the priorities of environmental health policy in East Asian countries with similar climates.
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: S-J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Yoon
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Kyunghee University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: I-H
authors.initials: IH
authors.lastname: Oh
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, Graduate School of Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
authors.forename: H-Y
authors.initials: HY
authors.lastname: Seo
authors.affiliation: Community-based Primary Care Project Team, Ministry of Health & Welfare, Seoul, Republic of Korea. Electronic address: 99340004@korea.ac.kr.
authors.forename: E-J
authors.initials: EJ
authors.lastname: Kim
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D002561:Cerebrovascular Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology; D057231:Climate Change; D017281:Cost of Illness; D006233:Persons with Disabilities; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000453:epidemiology; D007259:Infrared Rays / Q000009:adverse effects; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D017202:Myocardial Ischemia / Q000453:epidemiology; D019057:Quality-Adjusted Life Years; D056910:Republic of Korea / Q000453:epidemiology; D012307:Risk Factors; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Burden of disease; Climate change; Ozone; Republic of Korea; Temperature