title: Future impacts of nitrogen deposition and climate change scenarios on forest crown defoliation.
abstract: Defoliation is an indicator for forest health in response to several stressors including air pollutants, and one of the most important parameters monitored in the International Cooperative Programme on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects on Forests (ICP Forests). The study aims to estimate crown defoliation in 2030, under three climate and one nitrogen deposition scenarios, based on evaluation of the most important factors (meteorological, nitrogen deposition and chemical soil parameters) affecting defoliation of twelve European tree species. The combination of favourable climate and nitrogen fertilization in the more adaptive species induces a generalized decrease of defoliation. On the other hand, severe climate change and drought are main causes of increase in defoliation in Quercus ilex and Fagus sylvatica, especially in Mediterranean area. Our results provide information on regional distribution of future defoliation, an important knowledge for identifying policies to counteract negative impacts of climate change and air pollution.
authors.affiliation: Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and the Environment (ENEA), C.R. Casaccia, Via Anguillarese 301, 00123 S. Maria di Galeria, Rome, Italy. Electronic address: alessandra.demarco@enea.it.
authors.forename: Alessandra
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: De Marco
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Biology, Sapienza University of Rome, Piazzale Aldo Moro, 5, 00185 Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Chiara
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Proietti
authors.affiliation: Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and the Environment (ENEA), C.R. Casaccia, Via Anguillarese 301, 00123 S. Maria di Galeria, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Irene
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Cionni
authors.affiliation: World Forestry Institute, The Johann Heinrich von Thünen Institute, Leuschnerstr. 91, 21031 Hamburg, Germany.
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Fischer
authors.affiliation: Italian National Agency for New Technologies, Energy and the Environment (ENEA), C.R. Casaccia, Via Anguillarese 301, 00123 S. Maria di Galeria, Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Augusto
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Screpanti
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Biology, Sapienza University of Rome, Piazzale Aldo Moro, 5, 00185 Rome, Italy.
authors.forename: Marcello
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Vitale
mesh_terms: D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000032:analysis* / Q000633:toxicity; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D057231:Climate Change; D055864:Droughts; D065928:Forests; D009584:Nitrogen / Q000032:analysis* / Q000633:toxicity; D014197:Trees / Q000187:drug effects / Q000502:physiology*
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D009584:Nitrogen
keywords: Climate change; Crown defoliation; General regression models; Nitrogen deposition; Random forests analysis