title: Prediction of phylogeographic endemism in an environmentally complex biome.
abstract: Phylogeographic endemism, the degree to which the history of recently evolved lineages is spatially restricted, reflects fundamental evolutionary processes such as cryptic divergence, adaptation and biological responses to environmental heterogeneity. Attempts to explain the extraordinary diversity of the tropics, which often includes deep phylogeographic structure, frequently invoke interactions of climate variability across space, time and topography. To evaluate historical versus contemporary drivers of phylogeographic endemism in a tropical system, we analyse the effects of current and past climatic variation on the genetic diversity of 25 vertebrates in the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest. We identify two divergent bioclimatic domains within the forest and high turnover around the Rio Doce. Independent modelling of these domains demonstrates that endemism patterns are subject to different climatic drivers. Past climate dynamics, specifically areas of relative stability, predict phylogeographic endemism in the north. Conversely, contemporary climatic heterogeneity better explains endemism in the south. These results accord with recent speleothem and fossil pollen studies, suggesting that climatic variability through the last 250 kyr impacted the northern and the southern forests differently. Incorporating sub-regional differences in climate dynamics will enhance our ability to understand those processes shaping high phylogeographic and species endemism, in the Neotropics and beyond.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, City College of New York and the Graduate Center of CUNY, 160 Convent Avenue, Marshak Life Science Building J-526, New York, NY 10031, USA acarnaval@ccny.cuny.edu.
authors.forename: Ana Carolina
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Carnaval
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, City College of New York and the Graduate Center of CUNY, 160 Convent Avenue, Marshak Life Science Building J-526, New York, NY 10031, USA.
authors.forename: Eric
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Waltari
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Biociências, Universidade de São Paulo, Rua do Matão, trav. 14, no 321, Cidade Universitária, São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-090, Brazil.
authors.forename: Miguel T
authors.initials: MT
authors.lastname: Rodrigues
authors.affiliation: Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200, Australia.
authors.forename: Dan
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Rosauer
authors.affiliation: Centre for Biodiversity and Climate Change and eResearch Centre, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia.
authors.forename: Jeremy
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: VanDerWal
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Biociências, Universidade de São Paulo, Rua do Matão, trav. 14, no 321, Cidade Universitária, São Paulo, São Paulo 05508-090, Brazil Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, 3101 Valley Life Sciences Building, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
authors.forename: Roberta
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Damasceno
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, City College of New York and the Graduate Center of CUNY, 160 Convent Avenue, Marshak Life Science Building J-526, New York, NY 10031, USA.
authors.forename: Ivan
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Prates
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, City College of New York and the Graduate Center of CUNY, 160 Convent Avenue, Marshak Life Science Building J-526, New York, NY 10031, USA.
authors.forename: Maria
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Strangas
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, City College of New York and the Graduate Center of CUNY, 160 Convent Avenue, Marshak Life Science Building J-526, New York, NY 10031, USA.
authors.forename: Zoe
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Spanos
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, City College of New York and the Graduate Center of CUNY, 160 Convent Avenue, Marshak Life Science Building J-526, New York, NY 10031, USA.
authors.forename: Danielle
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Rivera
authors.affiliation: Mater Natura - Instituto de Estudos Ambientais, Lamenha Lins 1080, Curitiba, Paraná 80250, Brazil Departamento de Zoologia, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Centro Politécnico, Setor de Ciências Biológicas, Curitiba, Paraná 81531, Brazil Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Conservação, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Centro Politécnico, Setor de Ciências Biológicas, Curitiba, Paraná 81531, Brazil Pós-Graduação em Zoologia, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Centro Politécnico, Setor de Ciências Biológicas, Curitiba, Paraná 81531, Brazil.
authors.forename: Marcio R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Pie
authors.affiliation: Mater Natura - Instituto de Estudos Ambientais, Lamenha Lins 1080, Curitiba, Paraná 80250, Brazil Departamento de Zoologia, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Centro Politécnico, Setor de Ciências Biológicas, Curitiba, Paraná 81531, Brazil Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Conservação, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Centro Politécnico, Setor de Ciências Biológicas, Curitiba, Paraná 81531, Brazil.
authors.forename: Carina R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Firkowski
authors.affiliation: Mater Natura - Instituto de Estudos Ambientais, Lamenha Lins 1080, Curitiba, Paraná 80250, Brazil Departamento de Zoologia, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Centro Politécnico, Setor de Ciências Biológicas, Curitiba, Paraná 81531, Brazil Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Conservação, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Centro Politécnico, Setor de Ciências Biológicas, Curitiba, Paraná 81531, Brazil.
authors.forename: Marcos R
authors.initials: MR
authors.lastname: Bornschein
authors.affiliation: Mater Natura - Instituto de Estudos Ambientais, Lamenha Lins 1080, Curitiba, Paraná 80250, Brazil Departamento de Zoologia, Universidade Federal do Paraná, Centro Politécnico, Setor de Ciências Biológicas, Curitiba, Paraná 81531, Brazil Faculdade Dom Bosco, Avenida Presidente Wenceslau Braz 1172, Curitiba, Paraná 81010, Brazil.
authors.forename: Luiz F
authors.initials: LF
authors.lastname: Ribeiro
authors.affiliation: Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200, Australia Museum of Vertebrate Zoology, 3101 Valley Life Sciences Building, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
authors.forename: Craig
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Moritz
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001483:Base Sequence; D044822:Biodiversity; D005075:Biological Evolution; D001938:Brazil; D002980:Climate; D014644:Genetic Variation / Q000235:genetics*; D008969:Molecular Sequence Data; D058974:Phylogeography; D011157:Population Dynamics; D014714:Vertebrates / Q000235:genetics*
keywords: Atlantic Forest; biodiversity prediction; climate; forest refugia; phylogeographic endemism