title: A global model of the response of tropical and sub-tropical forest biodiversity to anthropogenic pressures.
abstract: Habitat loss and degradation, driven largely by agricultural expansion and intensification, present the greatest immediate threat to biodiversity. Tropical forests harbour among the highest levels of terrestrial species diversity and are likely to experience rapid land-use change in the coming decades. Synthetic analyses of observed responses of species are useful for quantifying how land use affects biodiversity and for predicting outcomes under land-use scenarios. Previous applications of this approach have typically focused on individual taxonomic groups, analysing the average response of the whole community to changes in land use. Here, we incorporate quantitative remotely sensed data about habitats in, to our knowledge, the first worldwide synthetic analysis of how individual species in four major taxonomic groups--invertebrates, 'herptiles' (reptiles and amphibians), mammals and birds--respond to multiple human pressures in tropical and sub-tropical forests. We show significant independent impacts of land use, human vegetation offtake, forest cover and human population density on both occurrence and abundance of species, highlighting the value of analysing multiple explanatory variables simultaneously. Responses differ among the four groups considered, and--within birds and mammals--between habitat specialists and habitat generalists and between narrow-ranged and wide-ranged species.
authors.affiliation: United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK Computational Science Laboratory, Microsoft Research Cambridge, 21 Station Road, Cambridge CB1 2FB, UK tim.newbold@unep-wcmc.org.
authors.forename: Tim
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Newbold
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
authors.forename: Lawrence N
authors.initials: LN
authors.lastname: Hudson
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
authors.forename: Helen R P
authors.initials: HR
authors.lastname: Phillips
authors.affiliation: United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
authors.forename: Samantha L L
authors.initials: SL
authors.lastname: Hill
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
authors.forename: Sara
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Contu
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Igor
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Lysenko
authors.affiliation: United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK.
authors.forename: Abigayil
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Blandon
authors.affiliation: BirdLife International, Welbrook Court, Cambridge CB3 0NA, UK.
authors.forename: Stuart H M
authors.initials: SH
authors.lastname: Butchart
authors.affiliation: United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK.
authors.forename: Hollie L
authors.initials: HL
authors.lastname: Booth
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Julie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Day
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
authors.forename: Adriana
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: De Palma
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Michelle L K
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Harrison
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Lucinda
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Kirkpatrick
authors.affiliation: United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK.
authors.forename: Edwin
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Pynegar
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Alexandra
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Robinson
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK.
authors.forename: Jake
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Simpson
authors.affiliation: Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK.
authors.forename: Georgina M
authors.initials: GM
authors.lastname: Mace
authors.affiliation: United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton BN1 9QG, UK.
authors.forename: Jörn P W
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Scharlemann
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
authors.forename: Andy
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Purvis
mesh_terms: D000383:Agriculture / Q000379:methods; D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D017753:Ecosystem; D065928:Forests; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011156:Population Density; D063809:Satellite Imagery; D014329:Tropical Climate
keywords: biodiversity; land-use change; sub-tropical forest; synthetic model; tropical forest