title: Curiosity predicts smoking experimentation independent of susceptibility in a US national sample.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To improve smoking prevention efforts, better methods for identifying at-risk youth are needed. The widely used measure of susceptibility to smoking identifies at-risk adolescents; however, it correctly identifies only about one third of future smokers. Adding curiosity about smoking to this susceptibility index may allow us to identify a greater proportion of future smokers while they are still pre-teens.
  
  
  METHODS
  We use longitudinal data from a recent national study on parenting to prevent problem behaviors. Only oldest children between 10 and 13years of age were eligible. Participants were identified by RDD survey and followed for 6years. All baseline never smokers with at least one follow-up assessment were included (n=878). The association of curiosity about smoking with future smoking behavior was assessed. Then, curiosity was added to form an enhanced susceptibility index and sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value were calculated.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Among committed never smokers at baseline, those who were 'definitely not curious' were less likely to progress toward smoking than both those who were 'probably not curious' (ORadj=1.89; 95% CI=1.03-3.47) or 'probably/definitely curious' (ORadj=2.88; 95% CI=1.11-7.45). Incorporating curiosity into the susceptibility index increased the proportion identified as at-risk to smoke from 25.1% to 46.9%. The sensitivity (true positives) for this enhanced susceptibility index for both experimentation and established smoking increased from 37-40% to over 50%, although the positive predictive value did not improve.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The addition of curiosity significantly improves the identification and classification of which adolescents will experiment with smoking or become established smokers.
authors.affiliation: Cancer Prevention and Control Program, Moores UCSD Cancer Center, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, University of California, San Diego, United States.
authors.forename: Jesse
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Nodora
authors.affiliation: Cancer Prevention and Control Program, Moores UCSD Cancer Center, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, University of California, San Diego, United States.
authors.forename: Sheri J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Hartman
authors.affiliation: Cancer Prevention and Control Program, Moores UCSD Cancer Center, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, University of California, San Diego, United States.
authors.forename: David R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Strong
authors.affiliation: Cancer Prevention and Control Program, Moores UCSD Cancer Center, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, University of California, San Diego, United States.
authors.forename: Karen
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Messer
authors.affiliation: Cancer Prevention and Control Program, Moores UCSD Cancer Center, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, University of California, San Diego, United States.
authors.forename: Lisa E
authors.initials: LE
authors.lastname: Vera
authors.affiliation: Cancer Prevention and Control Program, Moores UCSD Cancer Center, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, University of California, San Diego, United States.
authors.forename: Martha M
authors.initials: MM
authors.lastname: White
authors.affiliation: Center for Tobacco Products, US Food and Drug Administration, Rockville, MD, United States.
authors.forename: David B
authors.initials: DB
authors.lastname: Portnoy
authors.affiliation: Center for Tobacco Products, US Food and Drug Administration, Rockville, MD, United States.
authors.forename: Conrad J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Choiniere
authors.affiliation: Kelly Government Solutions, Bethesda, MD, United States.
authors.forename: Genevieve C
authors.initials: GC
authors.lastname: Vullo
authors.affiliation: Cancer Prevention and Control Program, Moores UCSD Cancer Center, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA, United States; Department of Family and Preventive Medicine, University of California, San Diego, United States. Electronic address: jppierce@ucsd.edu.
authors.forename: John P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Pierce
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000294:Adolescent Behavior / Q000523:psychology*; D002648:Child; D005106:Exploratory Behavior; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D016017:Odds Ratio; D011159:Population Surveillance / Q000379:methods; D012307:Risk Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology*; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Adolescent smoking; Curiosity; Smoking experimentation; Susceptibility to smoking