title: Arm measurements as determinants of further survival in centenarians.
abstract: Being indicators of nutritional and functional status, anthropometric characters may have great prognostic significance for survival at extremely advanced ages. For ethical and practical reasons however it is advisable to use characters such as arm measurements easily measurable even in bedridden subjects. This study compares the influence of some upper arm measurements and of Body Mass Index (BMI) on survival of the 77 subjects aged 98 years and over (98+) recruited within the MALVA project, one of the first Italian population-based studies on extremely old people. Adopting methods for multiple imputation of missing values, Gompertz regression models adjusted for gender and age were estimated for each anthropometric character or combination of characters, i.e. BMI; mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC)+elbow breadth (EB)+triceps skinfold thickness (TSF); corrected arm muscle area (CAMA). Being underweight and having a low CAMA and a low MUAC/high EB were positively associated with an increased risk of death, while no significant association was found with the condition of being overweight/obese and the triceps skinfold thickness. When anthropometric variables were included in regression models along with covariates relating to nutritional and functional status, BMI and MUAC, but not CAMA, emerged as protective factors. It is suggested that MUAC can be recommended in evaluating the health status of extremely old people and that measuring EB may help to estimate the non-boney component of the arm.
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistical Sciences "Paolo Fortunati", University of Bologna, Via Belle Arti 41, 40126 Bologna, Italy. Electronic address: paola.gueresi@unibo.it.
authors.forename: Paola
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Gueresi
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistical Sciences "Paolo Fortunati", University of Bologna, Via Belle Arti 41, 40126 Bologna, Italy.
authors.forename: Rossella
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Miglio
authors.affiliation: C.I.G. Interdepartmental Centre "L. Galvani", University of Bologna, Piazza di Porta San Donato 1, 40126 Bologna, Italy; DIMES - Department of Experimental, Diagnostic and Specialty Medicine, University of Bologna, Via San Giacomo 12, 40138 Bologna, Italy.
authors.forename: Elisa
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Cevenini
authors.affiliation: Department of Biomedical and Specialty Surgical Sciences, University of Ferrara, Corso Ercole I d'Este 32, 44121 Ferrara, Italy.
authors.forename: Emanuela
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Gualdi Russo
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000375:Aging / Q000473:pathology*; D000886:Anthropometry; D001132:Arm / Q000473:pathology*; D015992:Body Mass Index; D002423:Cause of Death; D005260:Female; D015577:Geriatric Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D009752:Nutritional Status; D009765:Obesity / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000401:mortality* / Q000473:pathology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D065840:Protective Factors; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D012885:Skinfold Thickness
keywords: Elbow breadth; Health status; Longevity; Mid-upper arm circumference; Mortality predictors