title: Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Persons living after a cancer diagnosis represent 4% of the whole population in high-income countries. The aim of the study was to provide estimates of indicators of long-term survival and cure for 26 cancer types, presently lacking.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data on 818 902 Italian cancer patients diagnosed at age 15-74 years in 1985-2005 were included. Proportions of patients with the same death rates of the general population (cure fractions) and those of prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer (cure prevalence) were calculated, using validated mixture cure models, by cancer type, sex, and age group. We also estimated complete prevalence, conditional relative survival (CRS), time to reach 5- and 10-year CRS >95%, and proportion of patients living longer than those thresholds.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The cure fractions ranged from >90% for patients aged <45 years with thyroid and testis cancers to <10% for liver and pancreatic cancers of all ages. Five- or 10-year CRS >95% were both reached in <10 years by patients with cancers of the stomach, colon-rectum, pancreas, corpus and cervix uteri, brain, and Hodgkin lymphoma. For breast cancer patients, 5- and 10-year CRSs reached >95% after 19 and 25 years, respectively, and in 15 and 18 years for prostate cancer patients. Five-year CRS remained <95% for >25 years after cancer diagnosis in patients with liver and larynx cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloma, and leukaemia. Overall, the cure prevalence was 67% for men and 77% for women. Therefore, 21% of male and 31% of female patients had already reached 5-year CRS >95%, whereas 18% and 25% had reached 10-year CRS >95%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A quarter of Italian cancer patients can be considered cured. This observation has a high potential impact on health planning, clinical practice, and patients' perspective.
authors.affiliation: Epidemiology and Biostatistics Unit, CRO Aviano National Cancer Institute IRCCS, Aviano. Electronic address: epidemiology@cro.it.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Dal Maso
authors.affiliation: Veneto Tumour Registry, Veneto Region, Padua.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Guzzinati
authors.affiliation: AIRTUM Database, Florence; Tuscany Cancer Registry, Clinical and Descriptive Epidemiology Unit, Cancer Prevention and Research Institute (ISPO), Florence.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Buzzoni
authors.affiliation: National Centre for Epidemiology, Surveillance and Health Promotion (CNESPS), Italian National Institute of Health (ISS), Rome.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Capocaccia
authors.affiliation: Epidemiology and Biostatistics Unit, CRO Aviano National Cancer Institute IRCCS, Aviano.
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Serraino
authors.affiliation: Tuscany Cancer Registry, Clinical and Descriptive Epidemiology Unit, Cancer Prevention and Research Institute (ISPO), Florence.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Caldarella
authors.affiliation: Veneto Tumour Registry, Veneto Region, Padua; Department of Oncology, Anatomic Pathology Unit, General Hospital of Treviso, Treviso.
authors.forename: A P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Dei Tos
authors.affiliation: Romagna Cancer Registry, Cancer Institute of Romagna (IRCSS), Meldola.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Falcini
authors.affiliation: Milan Cancer Registry, Milan Health Authority, Epidemiology Unit, Milan.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Autelitano
authors.affiliation: Umbria Cancer Registry, Department of Medical and Surgical Specialties, and Public Health, Section of Public Health, Perugia University, Perugia.
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Masanotti
authors.affiliation: Ferrara Cancer Registry, Ferrara University, Ferrara.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ferretti
authors.affiliation: Siracusa Cancer Registry, ASP of Siracusa, Siracusa.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Tisano
authors.affiliation: Medical Oncology Unit, CRO Aviano National Cancer Institute IRCCS, Aviano, Italy.
authors.forename: U
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Tirelli
authors.affiliation: Tuscany Cancer Registry, Clinical and Descriptive Epidemiology Unit, Cancer Prevention and Research Institute (ISPO), Florence.
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Crocetti
authors.affiliation: National Centre for Epidemiology, Surveillance and Health Promotion (CNESPS), Italian National Institute of Health (ISS), Rome.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: De Angelis
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Virdone
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Zucchetto
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gigli
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Francisci
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Baili
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Gatta
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Castaing
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Zanetti
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Contiero
authors.forename: E
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Bidoli
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Vercelli
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Michiara
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Federico
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Senatore
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Pannozzo
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Vicentini
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Bulatko
authors.forename: D R
authors.initials: DR
authors.lastname: Pirino
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Gentilini
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Fusco
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Giacomin
authors.forename: A C
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Fanetti
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Cusimano
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D003710:Demography; D018572:Disease-Free Survival; D005006:Ethnicity; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009369:Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology / Q000628:therapy*; D015995:Prevalence
keywords: Italy; cancer cure; prevalence; survival