title: The ERICE-score: the new native cardiovascular score for the low-risk and aged Mediterranean population of Spain.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  In Spain, data based on large population-based cohorts adequate to provide an accurate prediction of cardiovascular risk have been scarce. Thus, calibration of the EuroSCORE and Framingham scores has been proposed and done for our population. The aim was to develop a native risk prediction score to accurately estimate the individual cardiovascular risk in the Spanish population.
  
  
  METHODS
  Seven Spanish population-based cohorts including middle-aged and elderly participants were assembled. There were 11800 people (6387 women) representing 107915 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1214 cardiovascular events were identified, of which 633 were fatal. Cox regression analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of the different variables to the 10-year total cardiovascular risk.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Age was the strongest cardiovascular risk factor. High systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and smoking were strong predictive factors. The contribution of serum total cholesterol was small. Antihypertensive treatment also had a significant impact on cardiovascular risk, greater in men than in women. The model showed a good discriminative power (C-statistic=0.789 in men and C=0.816 in women). Ten-year risk estimations are displayed graphically in risk charts separately for men and women.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The ERICE is a new native cardiovascular risk score for the Spanish population derived from the background and contemporaneous risk of several Spanish cohorts. The ERICE score offers the direct and reliable estimation of total cardiovascular risk, taking in consideration the effect of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk factor management. The ERICE score is a practical and useful tool for clinicians to estimate the total individual cardiovascular risk in Spain.
authors.affiliation: Unidad de Epidemiología Clínica, Instituto IdiPAZ, Hospital Universitario La Paz, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain; Red de Investigación Cardiovascular (RIC), Spain. Electronic address: rgabriel.hulp@salud.madrid.org.
authors.forename: Rafael
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Gabriel
authors.affiliation: Red de Investigación Cardiovascular (RIC), Spain; Unidad de Investigación, EAP Sardenya-IIB Sant Pau, Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Carlos
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Brotons
authors.affiliation: Servicio de Epidemiología, Conserjería de Sanidad de Murcia, Murcia, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, CIBERESP, Spain; Departamento de Ciencias Sociosanitarias, Universidad de Murcia, Murcia, Spain.
authors.forename: M José
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: Tormo
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Ciencias de la Salud de Castilla-La Mancha, Talavera de la Reina, Toledo, Spain.
authors.forename: Antonio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Segura
authors.affiliation: Grupo CORSAIB, IB-Salut, Palma de Mallorca, Islas Baleares, Spain; Red de Investigación en Actividades Preventivas y Promoción de la Salud (redIAPP), Spain.
authors.forename: Fernando
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Rigo
authors.affiliation: CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, CIBERESP, Spain; Epidemiología Cardiovascular y Genética, IMIM (Instituto de Investigación Hospital del Mar), Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Roberto
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Elosua
authors.affiliation: Unidad de Lípidos, Clínica Nuestra Señora del Rosario, Grupo de Enfermedades Vasculares de Albacete (GEVA), Albacete, Spain.
authors.forename: Julio A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Carbayo
authors.affiliation: Servicio de Epidemiología, Conserjería de Sanidad de Murcia, Murcia, Spain; CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública, CIBERESP, Spain; Departamento de Ciencias Sociosanitarias, Universidad de Murcia, Murcia, Spain.
authors.forename: Diana
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Gavrila
authors.affiliation: Unidad de Investigación, EAP Sardenya-IIB Sant Pau, Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Irene
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Moral
authors.affiliation: Unidad de Epidemiología Clínica, Instituto IdiPAZ, Hospital Universitario La Paz, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain; Red de Investigación Cardiovascular (RIC), Spain; University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: Jaakko
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Tuomilehto
authors.affiliation: Unidad de Epidemiología Clínica, Instituto IdiPAZ, Hospital Universitario La Paz, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Madrid, Spain; Red de Investigación Cardiovascular (RIC), Spain; Instituto Universitario de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad de A Coruña, A Coruña, Spain.
authors.forename: Javier
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Muñiz
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000208:ethnology*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D019083:Mediterranean Region / Q000208:ethnology; D008875:Middle Aged; D009017:Morbidity / Q000639:trends; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Aging; Bajo riesgo cardiovascular; Diabetes mellitus; Ecuación de riesgo; Envejecimiento; España; Low-cardiovascular risk; Mediterranean; Mediterráneo; Risk score; Spain