title: Have winter fuel payments reduced excess winter mortality in England and Wales?
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The historical series of excess winter mortality (EWM) in England and Wales presents a negative trend. Winter fuel payments (WFPs) are the most important benefits for people aged 65 or over directly related to Winter Mortality in the UK.
  
  
  METHODS
  This study presents a time series analysis of the direct effect of WFPs on EWM in England and Wales.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We find a significant structural break in trend and volatility in the EWM series in England and Wales in 1999-2000. After controlling for a number of covariates, an ARIMA-X model finds that WFPs can account for almost half of the reduction in EWM in England and Wales since 1999/2000.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Almost half of the reduction in EWM since 1999/2000 is attributable to WFPs.
authors.affiliation: Age UK, Tavis House, 1-6 Tavistock Square, London WC1H 9NA, UK.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Iparraguirre
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002423:Cause of Death / Q000639:trends*; D004739:England; D005260:Female; D005380:Financing, Government / Q000191:economics* / Q000639:trends*; D005544:Forecasting; D005579:Fossil Fuels / Q000191:economics; D006361:Heating / Q000191:economics* / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D015233:Models, Statistical; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D012621:Seasons; D016019:Survival Analysis; D014852:Wales
chemical_list: D005579:Fossil Fuels
keywords: older people; welfare benefits; winter mortality