title: Estimating the impact of prevention action: a simulation model of cervical cancer progression.
abstract: Cervical cancer is one of the highest occurring cancers for women in East Africa. Many studies have shown that disease occurrences and particularly the number of deaths due to the disease can be reduced significantly by screening and vaccination. East Africa and Kenya in particular are undergoing change and taking actions to reduce disease levels. However, up until today disease level in the different districts in Kenya is not known nor what be the prevalence of disease when prevention actions take place. In this paper we propose a novel Bayesian model for estimating disease levels based on available partial reports and demographic information. The result is a simulation engine that provides estimations of the impact of various potential prevention actions.
authors.affiliation: IBM Research - Haifa.
authors.forename: Michal
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Rosen-Zvi
authors.affiliation: IBM Research - Haifa.
authors.forename: Lavi
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Shpigelman
authors.affiliation: IBM Research -Africa.
authors.forename: Alan
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Kalton
authors.affiliation: IBM Research - Haifa.
authors.forename: Omer
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Weissbrod
authors.affiliation: IBM Research -Africa.
authors.forename: Saheed
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Akindeinde
authors.affiliation: IBM Services.
authors.forename: Soren
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Benefeldt
authors.affiliation: IBM Software Group.
authors.forename: Andrew
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Bentley
authors.affiliation: IBM Research - Watson.
authors.forename: Terry
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Everett
authors.affiliation: IBM Research - Watson.
authors.forename: Joseph
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Jajinskiji
authors.affiliation: Stathmore University, Kenya.
authors.forename: Emmanuel
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Kweyu
authors.affiliation: IBM Research - Watson.
authors.forename: Chalapathy
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Neti
authors.affiliation: IBM Services.
authors.forename: Joe
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Saab
authors.affiliation: IBM Research -Africa.
authors.forename: Osamuyimen
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Stewart
authors.affiliation: IBM Services.
authors.forename: Malcolm
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ward
authors.affiliation: IBM Research - China.
authors.forename: Guo Tong
authors.initials: GT
authors.lastname: Xie
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003198:Computer Simulation; D018450:Disease Progression; D055088:Early Detection of Cancer / Q000379:methods*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007630:Kenya / Q000453:epidemiology; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010363:Pattern Recognition, Automated / Q000379:methods*; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D002583:Uterine Cervical Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control*