title: First trimester prediction of maternal glycemic status.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To predict gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) or normoglycemic status using first trimester maternal characteristics.
  
  
  METHODS
  We used data from a prospective cohort study. First trimester maternal characteristics were compared between women with and without GDM. Association of these variables with sugar values at glucose challenge test (GCT) and subsequent GDM was tested to identify key parameters. A predictive algorithm for GDM was developed and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) statistics was used to derive the optimal risk score. We defined normoglycemic state, when GCT and all four sugar values at oral glucose tolerance test, whenever obtained, were normal. Using same statistical approach, we developed an algorithm to predict the normoglycemic state.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Maternal age, race, prior GDM, first trimester BMI, and systolic blood pressure (SBP) were all significantly associated with GDM. Age, BMI, and SBP were also associated with GCT values. The logistic regression analysis constructed equation and the calculated risk score yielded sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 85%, 62%, 13.8%, and 98.3% for a cut-off value of 0.042, respectively (ROC-AUC - area under the curve 0.819, CI - confidence interval 0.769-0.868). The model constructed for normoglycemia prediction demonstrated lower performance (ROC-AUC 0.707, CI 0.668-0.746).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  GDM prediction can be achieved during the first trimester encounter by integration of maternal characteristics and basic measurements while normoglycemic status prediction is less effective.
authors.forename: Rinat
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Gabbay-Benziv
authors.forename: Lauren E
authors.initials: LE
authors.lastname: Doyle
authors.forename: Miriam
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Blitzer
authors.forename: Ahmet A
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Baschat
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D015142:Baltimore / Q000453:epidemiology; D001786:Blood Glucose; D001794:Blood Pressure; D015992:Body Mass Index; D015331:Cohort Studies; D016640:Diabetes, Gestational / Q000097:blood* / Q000208:ethnology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008423:Maternal Age; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011247:Pregnancy; D011261:Pregnancy Trimester, First / Q000097:blood*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D001786:Blood Glucose