title: Can we predict temperature-dependent chemical toxicity to marine organisms and set appropriate water quality guidelines for protecting marine ecosystems under different thermal scenarios?
abstract: Temperature changes due to climate change and seasonal fluctuation can have profound implications on chemical toxicity to marine organisms. Through a comprehensive meta-analysis by comparing median lethal or effect concentration data of six chemicals for various saltwater species obtained at different temperatures, we reveal that the chemical toxicity generally follows two different models: (1) it increases with increasing temperature and (2) it is the lowest at an optimal temperature and increases with increasing or decreasing temperature from the optimal temperature. Such observations are further supported by temperature-dependent hazardous concentration 10% (HC10) values derived from species sensitivity distributions which are constructed using the acute toxicity data generated at different temperatures. Considering these two models and natural variations of seawater temperature, we can scientifically assess whether applying an assessment factor (e.g. 10) to modify water quality guidelines of the chemicals can adequately protect marine ecosystems in tropics, subtropics and temperate regions, respectively.
authors.affiliation: The Swire Institute of Marine Science and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China; Key Laboratory of Tropical Marine Bio-Resources and Ecology, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301, China. Electronic address: zhougj01@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Guang-Jie
authors.initials: GJ
authors.lastname: Zhou
authors.affiliation: The Swire Institute of Marine Science and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China.
authors.forename: Zhen
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: The Swire Institute of Marine Science and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China.
authors.forename: Edward Tak Chuen
authors.initials: ETC
authors.lastname: Lau
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Tropical Marine Bio-Resources and Ecology, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301, China.
authors.forename: Xiang-Rong
authors.initials: XR
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: The Swire Institute of Marine Science and School of Biological Sciences, The University of Hong Kong, Pokfulam, Hong Kong, China; State Key Laboratory in Marine Pollution, City University of Hong Kong, Tat Chee Avenue, Kowloon, Hong Kong, China. Electronic address: kmyleung@hku.hk.
authors.forename: Kenneth Mei Yee
authors.initials: KMY
authors.lastname: Leung
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D059001:Aquatic Organisms; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D017753:Ecosystem; D008954:Models, Biological; D012623:Seawater / Q000737:chemistry; D013045:Species Specificity; D013696:Temperature; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000032:analysis / Q000633:toxicity*; D060753:Water Quality
chemical_list: D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical
keywords: Assessment factor; Environmental risk assessment; Species sensitivity distribution; Temperature; Toxicity