title: Where did that come from?--Identifying the source of a sample.
abstract: People's ability to summarize their knowledge of an observed numerical variable has been extensively studied. However, many real-life situations require people to go beyond summary statistics and infer which process or distribution has generated a sample. The present study investigates the extent to which people can make such inferences when the experienced variable is continuous and when they have had previous experience with instances of the variable. It also tests specific predictions derived from three possible cognitive processes of how inferences about a generating distribution are made. The results indicate that participants are efficient and flexible intuitive statisticians, requiring only as little as four observations in a sample to successfully infer which distribution it came from. Further, the results indicate that the cognitive process supporting the inference uses statistical properties of both an experienced distribution and a presented test sample, as suggested by the Naïve Sampling Model (NSM).
authors.affiliation: a Department of Psychology , Uppsala University , Uppsala , Sweden.
authors.forename: Marcus
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lindskog
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D003071:Cognition / Q000502:physiology*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007206:Individuality; D019545:Intuition; D007600:Judgment; D007858:Learning / Q000502:physiology; D008297:Male; D008960:Models, Psychological; D018401:Sample Size; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Inference; Intuitive statistics; Naïve intuitive statistician; Naïve sampling model; Sample