title: Epidemiological characteristics and prediction of esophageal cancer mortality in China from 1991 to 2012.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  To analyze the mortality distribution of esophageal cancer in China from 1991 to 2012, to forecast the mortality in the future five years, and to provide evidence for prevention and treatment of esophageal cancer.
  
  
  METHODS
  Mortality data for esophageal cancer in China from 1991 to 2012 were used to describe its epidemiological characteristics, such as the change of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences, sex and age differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of the mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were used to predict the mortality for the next five years in the future.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In China, the incidence rate of esophageal cancer from 2007 and the mortality rate of esophageal cancer from 2008 increased yearly, with males at 8.72/105 being higher than females, and the countryside at 15.5/105 being higher than in the city. The mortality rate increased from age 45. Geographical analysis showed the mortality rate increased from southern to eastern China, and from northeast to central China.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The incidence rate and the standardized mortality rate of esophageal cancer are rising. The regional disease control for esophageal cancer should be focused on eastern, central and northern regions China, and the key targets for prevention and treatment are rural men more than 45 years old. The mortality of esophageal cancer will rise in the next five years.
authors.affiliation: Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, China E-mail : klin@stu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Wen-Rui
authors.initials: WR
authors.lastname: Tang
authors.forename: Jia-Ying
authors.initials: JY
authors.lastname: Fang
authors.forename: Ku-Sheng
authors.initials: KS
authors.lastname: Wu
authors.forename: Xiao-Jun
authors.initials: XJ
authors.lastname: Shi
authors.forename: Jia-Yi
authors.initials: JY
authors.lastname: Luo
authors.forename: Kun
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Lin
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D004938:Esophageal Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007223:Infant; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009026:Mortality / Q000639:trends*; D012424:Rural Population; D014505:Urban Population; D055815:Young Adult