title: Determining when to change course in management actions.
abstract: Time is of the essence in conservation biology. To secure the persistence of a species, we need to understand how to balance time spent among different management actions. A new and simple method to test the efficacy of a range of conservation actions is required. Thus, we devised a general theoretical framework to help determine whether to test a new action and when to cease a trial and revert to an existing action if the new action did not perform well. The framework involves constructing a general population model under the different management actions and specifying a management objective. By maximizing the management objective, we could generate an analytical solution that identifies the optimal timing of when to change management action. We applied the analytical solution to the case of the Christmas Island pipistrelle bat (Pipistrelle murrayi), a species for which captive breeding might have prevented its extinction. For this case, we used our model to determine whether to start a captive breeding program and when to stop a captive breeding program and revert to managing the species in the wild, given that the management goal is to maximize the chance of reaching a target wild population size. For the pipistrelle bat, captive breeding was to start immediately and it was desirable to place the species in captivity for the entire management period. The optimal time to revert to managing the species in the wild was driven by several key parameters, including the management goal, management time frame, and the growth rates of the population under different management actions. Knowing when to change management actions can help conservation managers' act in a timely fashion to avoid species extinction.
authors.affiliation: School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St Lucia, Queensland, 4072, Australia; School of Mathematics and Physics, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, 4072, Australia.
authors.forename: Chooi Fei
authors.initials: CF
authors.lastname: Ng
authors.forename: Michael A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: McCarthy
authors.forename: Tara G
authors.initials: TG
authors.lastname: Martin
authors.forename: Hugh P
authors.initials: HP
authors.lastname: Possingham
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001315:Australia; D001947:Breeding; D002685:Chiroptera / Q000235:genetics / Q000502:physiology*; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods*; D003657:Decision Making; D056727:Endangered Species; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D007195:Indian Ocean Islands; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics
keywords: ciencia de la decisión; conservation decision making; decision science; monitoreo óptimo; optimal monitoring; recuperación de especies; species recovery; toma de decisiones de conservación