title: Using geographic information systems to simulate patient access areas.
abstract: We constructed a simulation model with a geographic information system (GIS) to predict the future shortage of beds in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area. With a grid square method, we calculated patient numbers for every 500 square meters of the Tokyo Metropolitan Area until 2040 and estimated whether those in need could be admitted to hospitals within an hour's drive from their homes. The simulation demonstrates that after 2025 many patients may not be able to find hospitals within this time framework. The situation will be especially serious in the center of Tokyo and along the railway lines, where many senior citizens reside. We can now apply this innovative GIS method in many fields and especially for the precise estimation of future demands for and supply of medical assistance.
authors.affiliation: Research Division of Healthcare Policy in Aging Society, Chiba University Hospital.
authors.forename: Shunsuke
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Doi
authors.affiliation: Research Division of Healthcare Policy in Aging Society, Chiba University Hospital.
authors.forename: Takashi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Inoue
authors.affiliation: Research Division of Healthcare Policy in Aging Society, Chiba University Hospital.
authors.forename: Hiroo
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Ide
authors.affiliation: Research Division of Healthcare Policy in Aging Society, Chiba University Hospital.
authors.forename: Toshihito
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Nakamura
authors.affiliation: Research Division of Healthcare Policy in Aging Society, Chiba University Hospital.
authors.forename: Shinsuke
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Fujita
authors.affiliation: Department of management and Medical Informatics, Chiba University Hospital.
authors.forename: Takahiro
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Suzuki
authors.affiliation: Research Division of Healthcare Policy in Aging Society, Chiba University Hospital.
authors.forename: Katsuhiko
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Takabayashi
mesh_terms: D001509:Bed Occupancy / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D040362:Geographic Information Systems / Q000458:organization & administration*; D062306:Geography, Medical; D006285:Health Planning; D006297:Health Services Accessibility / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand / Q000458:organization & administration*; D006742:Hospital Bed Capacity / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014041:Tokyo; D014505:Urban Population / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*