title: Forecasting malaria cases using climatic factors in delhi, India: a time series analysis.
abstract: Background. Malaria still remains a public health problem in developing countries and changing environmental and climatic factors pose the biggest challenge in fighting against the scourge of malaria. Therefore, the study was designed to forecast malaria cases using climatic factors as predictors in Delhi, India. Methods. The total number of monthly cases of malaria slide positives occurring from January 2006 to December 2013 was taken from the register maintained at the malaria clinic at Rural Health Training Centre (RHTC), Najafgarh, Delhi. Climatic data of monthly mean rainfall, relative humidity, and mean maximum temperature were taken from Regional Meteorological Centre, Delhi. Expert modeler of SPSS ver. 21 was used for analyzing the time series data. Results. Autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,0)(12), was the best fit model and it could explain 72.5% variability in the time series data. Rainfall (P value = 0.004) and relative humidity (P value = 0.001) were found to be significant predictors for malaria transmission in the study area. Seasonal adjusted factor (SAF) for malaria cases shows peak during the months of August and September. Conclusion. ARIMA models of time series analysis is a simple and reliable tool for producing reliable forecasts for malaria in Delhi, India.
authors.affiliation: Department of Community Medicine, Vardhman Mahavir Medical College and Safdarjung Hospital, New Delhi 110029, India.
authors.forename: Varun
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Kumar
authors.affiliation: Department of Community Medicine, Vardhman Mahavir Medical College and Safdarjung Hospital, New Delhi 110029, India.
authors.forename: Abha
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-6376-0726
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Mangal
authors.affiliation: Department of Community Medicine, Vardhman Mahavir Medical College and Safdarjung Hospital, New Delhi 110029, India.
authors.forename: Sanjeet
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Panesar
authors.affiliation: Department of Community Medicine, Vardhman Mahavir Medical College and Safdarjung Hospital, New Delhi 110029, India.
authors.forename: Geeta
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Yadav
authors.affiliation: Department of Community Medicine, Vardhman Mahavir Medical College and Safdarjung Hospital, New Delhi 110029, India.
authors.forename: Richa
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Talwar
authors.affiliation: Department of Community Medicine, Vardhman Mahavir Medical College and Safdarjung Hospital, New Delhi 110029, India.
authors.forename: Deepak
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Raut
authors.affiliation: Department of Community Medicine, Vardhman Mahavir Medical College and Safdarjung Hospital, New Delhi 110029, India.
authors.forename: Saudan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Singh