title: Predicting time on prolonged benefits for injured workers with acute back pain.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Some workers with work-related compensated back pain (BP) experience a troubling course of disability. Factors associated with delayed recovery among workers with work-related compensated BP were explored.
  
  
  METHODS
  This is a cohort study of workers with compensated BP in 2005 in Ontario, Canada. Follow up was 2 years. Data was collected from employers, employees and health-care providers by the Workplace Safety and Insurance Board (WSIB). Exclusion criteria were: (1) no-lost-time claims, (2) >30 days between injury and claim filing, (3) <4 weeks benefits duration, and (4) age >65 years. Using proportional hazard models, we examined the prognostic value of information collected in the first 4 weeks after injury. Outcome measures were time on benefits during the first episode and time until recurrence after the first episode.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Of 6,657 workers, 1,442 were still on full benefits after 4 weeks. Our final model containing age, physical demands, opioid prescription, union membership, availability of a return-to-work program, employer doubt about work-relatedness of injury, worker's recovery expectations, participation in a rehabilitation program and communication of functional ability was able to identify prolonged claims to a fair degree [area under the curve (AUC) = .79, 95% confidence interval (CI) .74-.84]. A model containing age, sex, physical demands, opioid prescription and communication of functional ability was less successful at predicting time until recurrence (AUC = .61, 95% CI .57, .65).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Factors contained in information currently collected by the WSIB during the first 4 weeks on benefits can predict prolonged claims, but not recurrent claims.
authors.affiliation: Institute for Work & Health, 481, University Ave, Suite 800, Toronto, ON, M5G 2E9, Canada, isteenstra@iwh.on.ca.
authors.forename: Ivan A
authors.initials: IA
authors.lastname: Steenstra
authors.forename: Jason W
authors.initials: JW
authors.lastname: Busse
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Tolusso
authors.forename: Arold
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Davilmar
authors.forename: Hyunmi
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.forename: Andrea D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Furlan
authors.forename: Ben
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Amick
authors.forename: Sheilah
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hogg-Johnson
mesh_terms: D059787:Acute Pain; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D015331:Cohort Studies; D016208:Databases, Factual; D004185:Disability Evaluation; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015601:Injury Severity Score; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D017116:Low Back Pain / Q000191:economics* / Q000209:etiology* / Q000503:physiopathology / Q000534:rehabilitation; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D016272:Occupational Health; D060051:Occupational Injuries / Q000150:complications*; D009864:Ontario; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012372:ROC Curve; D012008:Recurrence; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D062707:Return to Work / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D018570:Risk Assessment; D013997:Time Factors; D014942:Workers' Compensation / Q000191:economics* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D055815:Young Adult