title: Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe.
abstract: Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized palaeoclimate data sets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth's recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based palaeotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our palaeotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe.
authors.affiliation: Palaeoecology, Institute of Plant Sciences and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Altenbergrain 21, CH-3013 Bern, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Oliver
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Heiri
authors.affiliation: Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
authors.forename: Stephen J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Brooks
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1081, NL-1081HV Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Hans
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Renssen
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Edge Hill University, St Helen's Road, Ormskirk L39 4QP, UK.
authors.forename: Alan
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Bedford
authors.affiliation: Palaeoecology, Department Physical Geography, Geosciences, Utrecht University, Budapestlaan 4, NL-3584 CD Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Marjolein
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Hazekamp
authors.affiliation: Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Technikerstraße 25, A-6020 Innsbruck, Austria.
authors.forename: Boris
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Ilyashuk
authors.affiliation: Long-Term Ecology Laboratory, Department of Zoology, Biodiversity Institute, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
authors.forename: Elizabeth S
authors.initials: ES
authors.lastname: Jeffers
authors.affiliation: Strata Environmental, 12 Chapel Walks, Kirkham, Preston, Lancashire PR4 2TA, UK.
authors.forename: Barbara
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Lang
authors.affiliation: Palaeoecology, Department Physical Geography, Geosciences, Utrecht University, Budapestlaan 4, NL-3584 CD Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Emiliya
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Kirilova
authors.affiliation: Palaeoecology, Department Physical Geography, Geosciences, Utrecht University, Budapestlaan 4, NL-3584 CD Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Saskia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kuiper
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire Chrono-Environnement, UMR 6249 CNRS, UFR Sciences et Techniques, Université de Franche-Comté, 25030 Besançon, France.
authors.forename: Laurent
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Millet
authors.affiliation: Palaeoecology, Institute of Plant Sciences and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Altenbergrain 21, CH-3013 Bern, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Stéphanie
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Samartin
authors.affiliation: Balaton Limnological Institute, MTA Centre for Ecological Research, Klebelsberg K. 3, HU-8237 Tihany, Hungary.
authors.forename: Monika
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Toth
authors.affiliation: Palaeoecology, Department Physical Geography, Geosciences, Utrecht University, Budapestlaan 4, NL-3584 CD Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Frederike
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Verbruggen
authors.affiliation: School of Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology, Queens University, Belfast BT7 1NN, UK.
authors.forename: Jenny E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Watson
authors.affiliation: Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Nelleke
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: van Asch
authors.affiliation: Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Emmy
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Lammertsma
authors.affiliation: Institute of Geology at Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5, 19086 Tallinn, Estonia.
authors.forename: Leeli
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Amon
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, PO Box 7803, N-5020 Bergen, Norway.
authors.forename: Hilary H
authors.initials: HH
authors.lastname: Birks
authors.affiliation: 1] Department of Biology and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, PO Box 7803, N-5020 Bergen, Norway [2] ECRC, University College London, London WC1 6BT, UK [3] School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK.
authors.forename: H John B
authors.initials: HJ
authors.lastname: Birks
authors.affiliation: The National Museum of Denmark, Environmental Archaeology and Materials Science, Ny Vestergade 11, 1471 Copenhagen, Denmark.
authors.forename: Morten F
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: Mortensen
authors.affiliation: Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Wim Z
authors.initials: WZ
authors.lastname: Hoek
authors.affiliation: Hungarian Academy of Sciences-Natural History Museum, Research group for Paleontology, Paleontology, PO Box 222, HU-1476 Budapest, Hungary.
authors.forename: Enikö
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Magyari
authors.affiliation: Department of Plant Biology and Soil Sciences, University of Vigo, Campus As Lagoas-Marcosende s/n, E-36310 Vigo, Spain.
authors.forename: Castor
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Muñoz Sobrino
authors.affiliation: Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, PO Box 64, Helsinki FI-00014, Finland.
authors.forename: Heikki
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Seppä
authors.affiliation: Palaeoecology, Institute of Plant Sciences and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Altenbergrain 21, CH-3013 Bern, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Willy
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Tinner
authors.affiliation: Laboratory of Palynology, Faculty of Biology, University of Sofia, Dragan Tzankov 8, 1164 Sofia, Bulgaria.
authors.forename: Spassimir
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Tonkov
authors.affiliation: Institute of Geology at Tallinn University of Technology, Ehitajate tee 5, 19086 Tallinn, Estonia.
authors.forename: Siim
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Veski
authors.affiliation: Palaeoecology, Department Physical Geography, Geosciences, Utrecht University, Budapestlaan 4, NL-3584 CD Utrecht, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: André F
authors.initials: AF
authors.lastname: Lotter