title: Prediction Forecast for Culex tritaeniorhynchus Populations in Korea.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Japanese encephalitis is considered as a secondary legal infectious disease in Korea and is transmitted by mosquitoes in the summer season. The purpose of this study was to predict the ratio of Culex tritaeniorhynchus to all the species of mosquitoes present in the study regions.
  
  
  METHODS
  From 1999 to 2012, black light traps were installed in 10 regions in Korea (Busan, Gyeonggi, Gangwon, Chungbuk, Chungnam, Jeonbuk, Jeonnam, Gyeongbuk, Gyeongnam, and Jeju) to capture mosquitoes for identification and classification under a dissecting microscope. The number of mosquitoes captured/week was used to calculate its daily occurrence (mosquitoes/trap/night). To predict the characteristics of the mosquito population, an autoregressive model of order p (AR(p)) was used to execute the out-of-sample prediction and the in-sample estimation after presumption.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Compared with the out-of-sample method, the sample-weighted regression method's case was relatively superior for prediction, and this method predicted a decrease in the frequency of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus for 2013. However, the actual frequency of this species showed an increase in frequency. By contrast, the frequency rate of all the mosquitoes including Cx. tritaeniorhynchus gradually decreased.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The number of patients with Japanese encephalitis has been strongly associated with the occurrence and density of vector mosquitoes, and the importance of this infectious disease has been highlighted since 2010. The 2013 prediction indicated an increase after an initial decrease, although the ratio of the two mosquito species decreased. The increase in vector density may be due to changes in temperature and the environment. Thus, continuous prevalence prediction is warranted.
authors.affiliation: School of Economics, Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Nam-Hyun
authors.initials: NH
authors.lastname: Kim
authors.affiliation: Division of Medical Entomology, Korea National Institute of Health, Osong, Korea.
authors.forename: Wook-Gyo
authors.initials: WG
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Division of Medical Entomology, Korea National Institute of Health, Osong, Korea.
authors.forename: E-Hyun
authors.initials: EH
authors.lastname: Shin
authors.affiliation: Division of Medical Entomology, Korea National Institute of Health, Osong, Korea.
authors.forename: Jong Yul
authors.initials: JY
authors.lastname: Roh
authors.affiliation: School of Economics, Sungkyunkwan University, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Hae-Chun
authors.initials: HC
authors.lastname: Rhee
authors.affiliation: Division of Medical Entomology, Korea National Institute of Health, Osong, Korea.
authors.forename: Mi Yeoun
authors.initials: MY
authors.lastname: Park
keywords: Culex tritaeniorhynchus; Japanese encephalitis; out-of-sample prediction