title: Inferring on the intentions of others by hierarchical Bayesian learning.
abstract: Inferring on others' (potentially time-varying) intentions is a fundamental problem during many social transactions. To investigate the underlying mechanisms, we applied computational modeling to behavioral data from an economic game in which 16 pairs of volunteers (randomly assigned to "player" or "adviser" roles) interacted. The player performed a probabilistic reinforcement learning task, receiving information about a binary lottery from a visual pie chart. The adviser, who received more predictive information, issued an additional recommendation. Critically, the game was structured such that the adviser's incentives to provide helpful or misleading information varied in time. Using a meta-Bayesian modeling framework, we found that the players' behavior was best explained by the deployment of hierarchical learning: they inferred upon the volatility of the advisers' intentions in order to optimize their predictions about the validity of their advice. Beyond learning, volatility estimates also affected the trial-by-trial variability of decisions: participants were more likely to rely on their estimates of advice accuracy for making choices when they believed that the adviser's intentions were presently stable. Finally, our model of the players' inference predicted the players' interpersonal reactivity index (IRI) scores, explicit ratings of the advisers' helpfulness and the advisers' self-reports on their chosen strategy. Overall, our results suggest that humans (i) employ hierarchical generative models to infer on the changing intentions of others, (ii) use volatility estimates to inform decision-making in social interactions, and (iii) integrate estimates of advice accuracy with non-social sources of information. The Bayesian framework presented here can quantify individual differences in these mechanisms from simple behavioral readouts and may prove useful in future clinical studies of maladaptive social cognition.
authors.affiliation: Translational Neuromodeling Unit (TNU), Institute for Biomedical Engineering, University of Zurich and ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Laboratory for Social and Neural Systems Research, Department of Economics, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Andreea O
authors.initials: AO
authors.lastname: Diaconescu
authors.affiliation: Translational Neuromodeling Unit (TNU), Institute for Biomedical Engineering, University of Zurich and ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Laboratory for Social and Neural Systems Research, Department of Economics, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Christoph
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Mathys
authors.affiliation: Translational Neuromodeling Unit (TNU), Institute for Biomedical Engineering, University of Zurich and ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Laboratory for Social and Neural Systems Research, Department of Economics, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Lilian A E
authors.initials: LA
authors.lastname: Weber
authors.affiliation: Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging, University College London, London, United Kingdom; Institut du Cerveau et de la Moelle épinière (ICM), Hôpital Pitié Salpêtrière, Paris, France.
authors.forename: Jean
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Daunizeau
authors.affiliation: Translational Neuromodeling Unit (TNU), Institute for Biomedical Engineering, University of Zurich and ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Laboratory for Social and Neural Systems Research, Department of Economics, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Lars
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Kasper
authors.affiliation: Translational Neuromodeling Unit (TNU), Institute for Biomedical Engineering, University of Zurich and ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Laboratory for Social and Neural Systems Research, Department of Economics, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Department of Computer Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Ekaterina I
authors.initials: EI
authors.lastname: Lomakina
authors.affiliation: Laboratory for Social and Neural Systems Research, Department of Economics, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Ernst
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Fehr
authors.affiliation: Translational Neuromodeling Unit (TNU), Institute for Biomedical Engineering, University of Zurich and ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Laboratory for Social and Neural Systems Research, Department of Economics, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging, University College London, London, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Klaas E
authors.initials: KE
authors.lastname: Stephan
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003657:Decision Making; D005717:Games, Experimental; D006801:Humans; D033182:Intention; D007858:Learning; D008297:Male; D008960:Models, Psychological; D009042:Motivation; D012919:Social Behavior; D055815:Young Adult