title: Stock returns predictability and the adaptive market hypothesis in emerging markets: evidence from India.
abstract: This study addresses the question of whether the adaptive market hypothesis provides a better description of the behaviour of emerging stock market like India. We employed linear and nonlinear methods to evaluate the hypothesis empirically. The linear tests show a cyclical pattern in linear dependence suggesting that the Indian stock market switched between periods of efficiency and inefficiency. In contrast, the results from nonlinear tests reveal a strong evidence of nonlinearity in returns throughout the sample period with a sign of tapering magnitude of nonlinear dependence in the recent period. The findings suggest that Indian stock market is moving towards efficiency. The results provide additional insights on association between financial crises, foreign portfolio investments and inefficiency.
  
  
  BACKGROUND
  G14; G12; C12.
authors.affiliation: Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, 721302 India.
authors.forename: Gourishankar S
authors.initials: GS
authors.lastname: Hiremath
authors.affiliation: Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, 721302 India.
authors.forename: Jyoti
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kumari
keywords: Adaptive market hypothesis; Autocorrelation; Emerging markets; Evolving efficiency; Financial crisis; Market efficiency; Nonlinearity; Predictability; Random walk