title: Past trends and future prediction of mesothelioma incidence in an industrialized area of Italy, the Veneto Region.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Malignant Mesothelioma (MM) is so associated with (professional, familial or environmental) asbestos exposure that trends in incidence and mortality parallel, after 30-40 years, the trend in asbestos consumption. In recent decades, the industrialized countries have witnessed a steady growth of pleural MM (MPM), following a stabilization or decline in rates in the countries that first adopted restrictive policies. The aim of this study was to evaluate the temporal variations of pleural MM incidence in the Veneto Region of Italy in the period 1987-2010.
  
  
  METHODS
  We included only MPM with histological or cytological diagnosis. Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models were used to assess the trend in the incidence of MPM in both genders. Future predictions were evaluated by using a Bayesian APC model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In the period 1987-2010, 1600 MPMs have occurred. We observe a positive trend in the incidence in the whole period considered. The APC model showed that in both genders the cohort at higher risk is the one born between the years 1940-1945. Future projections indicate that the trend will decrease after the incidence peak of 2010; yet 1234 men are expected to develop a mesothelioma between 2011 and 2026. Among women, the future MPM rates will be stable or slightly decreasing.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The asbestos ban introduced in Italy in the year 1992 as a prospective result will certainly determine a decreasing incidence. However, the extremely long latency of MPM means that its influence is not yet observable.
authors.affiliation: Venetian Mesothelioma Registry, Occupational Health Unit, Local Health Authority of Padua, Via Ospedale 22, 35128 Padua, Italy. Electronic address: paolo.girardi@sanita.padova.it.
authors.forename: Paolo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Girardi
authors.affiliation: Venetian Mesothelioma Registry, Occupational Health Unit, Local Health Authority of Padua, Via Ospedale 22, 35128 Padua, Italy.
authors.forename: Vittoria
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Bressan
authors.affiliation: Venetian Mesothelioma Registry, Occupational Health Unit, Local Health Authority of Padua, Via Ospedale 22, 35128 Padua, Italy.
authors.forename: Enzo
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Merler
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001194:Asbestos / Q000633:toxicity*; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D004781:Environmental Exposure / Q000009:adverse effects*; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008654:Mesothelioma / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology / Q000473:pathology; D008875:Middle Aged; D010997:Pleural Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology / Q000473:pathology; D017678:Sex Distribution
chemical_list: D001194:Asbestos
keywords: Asbestos; Bayesian prediction; Cohort analysis; Incidence; Mesothelioma; Occupational exposure; Public health