title: Temporal trends in the population attributable risk for cardiovascular disease: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The extent to which the relative contributions of traditional cardiovascular risk factors to incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) may have changed over time remains unclear.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We studied 13 541 participants (56% women, 26% black) in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, aged 52 to 66 years and free of CVD at exams in 1987 through 1989, 1990 through 1992, 1993 through 1995, or 1996 through 1998. At each examination, we estimated the population attributable risks (PAR) of traditional risk factors (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, obesity, hypercholesterolemia, and smoking) for the 10-year incidence of CVD. Overall, the PAR of all risk factors combined appeared to decrease from the late 1980s to the late 1990s (0.58 to 0.53). The combined PAR was higher in women than men in 1987 through 1989 (0.68 versus 0.51, P<0.001) but not by the late 1990s (0.58 versus 0.48, P=0.08). The combined PAR was higher in blacks than whites in the late 1980s (0.67 versus 0.57, P=0.049), and this difference was more pronounced by the late 1990s (0.67 versus 0.48, P=0.002). By the late 1990s, the PAR of hypertension had become higher in women than men (P=0.02) and also appeared higher in blacks than whites (P=0.08). By the late 1990s, the PAR of diabetes mellitus remained higher in women than men (P<0.0001) and in blacks than whites (P<0.0001).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The contribution to CVD of all traditional risk factors combined is greater in blacks than whites, and this difference may be increasing. The contributions of hypertension and diabetes mellitus remain especially high, in women as well as blacks. These findings underscore the continued need for individual as well as population approaches to CVD risk factor modification.
authors.affiliation: From the Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (S.C., B.C., A.M.S., D.K.G., H.S., S.D.S.); NMR Group Inc, Somerville, MA (A.W.C.); National Institutes of Health, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, MD (H.N.); the Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (W.D.R., G.H.); the Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (A.R.F.); the Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD (J.C.); and the Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD (J.C.). scheng@rics.bwh.harvard.edu.
authors.forename: Susan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Cheng
authors.affiliation: From the Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (S.C., B.C., A.M.S., D.K.G., H.S., S.D.S.); NMR Group Inc, Somerville, MA (A.W.C.); National Institutes of Health, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, MD (H.N.); the Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (W.D.R., G.H.); the Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (A.R.F.); the Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD (J.C.); and the Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD (J.C.).
authors.forename: Brian
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Claggett
authors.affiliation: From the Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (S.C., B.C., A.M.S., D.K.G., H.S., S.D.S.); NMR Group Inc, Somerville, MA (A.W.C.); National Institutes of Health, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, MD (H.N.); the Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (W.D.R., G.H.); the Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (A.R.F.); the Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD (J.C.); and the Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD (J.C.).
authors.forename: Andrew W
authors.initials: AW
authors.lastname: Correia
authors.affiliation: From the Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (S.C., B.C., A.M.S., D.K.G., H.S., S.D.S.); NMR Group Inc, Somerville, MA (A.W.C.); National Institutes of Health, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, MD (H.N.); the Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (W.D.R., G.H.); the Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (A.R.F.); the Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD (J.C.); and the Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD (J.C.).
authors.forename: Amil M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Shah
authors.affiliation: From the Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (S.C., B.C., A.M.S., D.K.G., H.S., S.D.S.); NMR Group Inc, Somerville, MA (A.W.C.); National Institutes of Health, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, MD (H.N.); the Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (W.D.R., G.H.); the Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (A.R.F.); the Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD (J.C.); and the Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD (J.C.).
authors.forename: Deepak K
authors.initials: DK
authors.lastname: Gupta
authors.affiliation: From the Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (S.C., B.C., A.M.S., D.K.G., H.S., S.D.S.); NMR Group Inc, Somerville, MA (A.W.C.); National Institutes of Health, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, MD (H.N.); the Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (W.D.R., G.H.); the Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (A.R.F.); the Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD (J.C.); and the Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD (J.C.).
authors.forename: Hicham
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Skali
authors.affiliation: From the Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (S.C., B.C., A.M.S., D.K.G., H.S., S.D.S.); NMR Group Inc, Somerville, MA (A.W.C.); National Institutes of Health, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, MD (H.N.); the Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (W.D.R., G.H.); the Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (A.R.F.); the Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD (J.C.); and the Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD (J.C.).
authors.forename: Hanyu
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Ni
authors.affiliation: From the Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (S.C., B.C., A.M.S., D.K.G., H.S., S.D.S.); NMR Group Inc, Somerville, MA (A.W.C.); National Institutes of Health, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, MD (H.N.); the Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (W.D.R., G.H.); the Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (A.R.F.); the Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD (J.C.); and the Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD (J.C.).
authors.forename: Wayne D
authors.initials: WD
authors.lastname: Rosamond
authors.affiliation: From the Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (S.C., B.C., A.M.S., D.K.G., H.S., S.D.S.); NMR Group Inc, Somerville, MA (A.W.C.); National Institutes of Health, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, MD (H.N.); the Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (W.D.R., G.H.); the Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (A.R.F.); the Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD (J.C.); and the Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD (J.C.).
authors.forename: Gerardo
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Heiss
authors.affiliation: From the Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (S.C., B.C., A.M.S., D.K.G., H.S., S.D.S.); NMR Group Inc, Somerville, MA (A.W.C.); National Institutes of Health, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, MD (H.N.); the Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (W.D.R., G.H.); the Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (A.R.F.); the Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD (J.C.); and the Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD (J.C.).
authors.forename: Aaron R
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Folsom
authors.affiliation: From the Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (S.C., B.C., A.M.S., D.K.G., H.S., S.D.S.); NMR Group Inc, Somerville, MA (A.W.C.); National Institutes of Health, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, MD (H.N.); the Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (W.D.R., G.H.); the Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (A.R.F.); the Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD (J.C.); and the Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD (J.C.).
authors.forename: Josef
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Coresh
authors.affiliation: From the Cardiovascular Division, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA (S.C., B.C., A.M.S., D.K.G., H.S., S.D.S.); NMR Group Inc, Somerville, MA (A.W.C.); National Institutes of Health, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, MD (H.N.); the Department of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC (W.D.R., G.H.); the Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (A.R.F.); the Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology and Clinical Research, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD (J.C.); and the Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD (J.C.).
authors.forename: Scott D
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Solomon
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D044383:Black People; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000208:ethnology / Q000209:etiology; D048909:Diabetes Complications / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000208:ethnology; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D006937:Hypercholesterolemia / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000208:ethnology; D006973:Hypertension / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000208:ethnology; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009765:Obesity / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000208:ethnology; D044469:Racial Groups; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D012737:Sex Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000009:adverse effects*; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D044465:White People; D001741:Black or African American
keywords: cardiovascular diseases; ethnicity; gender; prevention; race; risk factors