title: Melanoma risk prediction models.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The lack of effective therapy for advanced stages of melanoma emphasizes the importance of preventive measures and screenings of population at risk. Identifying individuals at high risk should allow targeted screenings and follow-up involving those who would benefit most. The aim of this study was to identify most significant factors for melanoma prediction in our population and to create prognostic models for identification and differentiation of individuals at risk.
  
  
  METHODS
  This case-control study included 697 participants (341 patients and 356 controls) that underwent extensive interview and skin examination in order to check risk factors for melanoma. Pairwise univariate statistical comparison was used for the coarse selection of the most significant risk factors. These factors were fed into logistic regression (LR) and alternating decision trees (ADT) prognostic models that were assessed for their usefulness in identification of patients at risk to develop melanoma. Validation of the LR model was done by Hosmer and Lemeshow test, whereas the ADT was validated by 10-fold cross-validation. The achieved sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and AUC for both models were calculated. The melanoma risk score (MRS) based on the outcome of the LR model was presented.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The LR model showed that the following risk factors were associated with melanoma: sunbeds (OR = 4.018; 95% CI 1.724-9.366 for those that sometimes used sunbeds), solar damage of the skin (OR = 8.274; 95% CI 2.661-25.730 for those with severe solar damage), hair color (OR = 3.222; 95% CI 1.984-5.231 for light brown/blond hair), the number of common naevi (over 100 naevi had OR = 3.57; 95% CI 1.427-8.931), the number of dysplastic naevi (from 1 to 10 dysplastic naevi OR was 2.672; 95% CI 1.572-4.540; for more than 10 naevi OR was 6.487; 95%; CI 1.993-21.119), Fitzpatricks phototype and the presence of congenital naevi. Red hair, phototype I and large congenital naevi were only present in melanoma patients and thus were strongly associated with melanoma. The percentage of correctly classified subjects in the LR model was 74.9%, sensitivity 71%, specificity 78.7% and AUC 0.805. For the ADT percentage of correctly classified instances was 71.9%, sensitivity 71.9%, specificity 79.4% and AUC 0.808.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Application of different models for risk assessment and prediction of melanoma should provide efficient and standardized tool in the hands of clinicians. The presented models offer effective discrimination of individuals at high risk, transparent decision making and real-time implementation suitable for clinical practice. A continuous melanoma database growth would provide for further adjustments and enhancements in model accuracy as well as offering a possibility for successful application of more advanced data mining algorithms.
authors.forename: Jelena
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Nikolić
authors.forename: Tatjana
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Loncar-Turukalo
authors.forename: Srdan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sladojević
authors.forename: Marija
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Marinković
authors.forename: Zlata
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Janjić
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D003663:Decision Trees; D005127:Eye Color; D006200:Hair Color; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008545:Melanoma / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000209:etiology*; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012307:Risk Factors; D012878:Skin Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000209:etiology*; D055815:Young Adult