title: Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa.
abstract: Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex zoonosis that is highly virulent in humans. The largest recorded outbreak of EVD is ongoing in West Africa, outside of its previously reported and predicted niche. We assembled location data on all recorded zoonotic transmission to humans and Ebola virus infection in bats and primates (1976-2014). Using species distribution models, these occurrence data were paired with environmental covariates to predict a zoonotic transmission niche covering 22 countries across Central and West Africa. Vegetation, elevation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and suspected reservoir bat distributions define this relationship. At-risk areas are inhabited by 22 million people; however, the rarity of human outbreaks emphasises the very low probability of transmission to humans. Increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of EVD in 1976 suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary outbreaks will be very different to those of the past.
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: David M
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6731-4034
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Pigott
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Nick
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8916-5570
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Golding
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Adrian
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Mylne
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Zhi
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Andrew J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Henry
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Daniel J
authors.initials: DJ
authors.lastname: Weiss
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Oliver J
authors.initials: OJ
authors.lastname: Brady
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Moritz U G
authors.initials: MU
authors.lastname: Kraemer
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: David L
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4367-3849
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Catherine L
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: Moyes
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Samir
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Bhatt
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Peter W
authors.initials: PW
authors.lastname: Gething
authors.affiliation: Epidemic Diseases Research Group, Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Peter W
authors.initials: PW
authors.lastname: Horby
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
authors.forename: Isaac I
authors.initials: II
authors.lastname: Bogoch
authors.affiliation: Department of Pediatrics, Harvard Medical School, Boston, United States.
authors.forename: John S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Brownstein
authors.affiliation: Children's Hospital Informatics Program, Boston Children's Hospital, Boston, United States.
authors.forename: Sumiko R
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Mekaru
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography and Environment, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Andrew J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Tatem
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, University of Toronto, Toronto, Canada.
authors.forename: Kamran
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Khan
authors.affiliation: Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Simon I
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0611-7272
authors.initials: SI
authors.lastname: Hay
mesh_terms: D000350:Africa, Central / Q000453:epidemiology; D000354:Africa, Western / Q000453:epidemiology; D000401:Aircraft; D000818:Animals; D002685:Chiroptera / Q000821:virology*; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D004197:Disease Reservoirs / Q000821:virology; D029043:Ebolavirus / Q000502:physiology*; D005843:Geography; D019142:Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology*; D054884:Host-Pathogen Interactions; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018419:Primate Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology*; D011323:Primates / Q000821:virology*; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D012307:Risk Factors; D014195:Travel; D015047:Zoonoses / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000821:virology*
keywords: Ebola; Ebola virus; boosted regression trees; disease mapping; epidemiology; global health; human; infectious disease; microbiology; niche based modelling; species distribution modelling; viruses