title: Predictions get tougher in older individuals: a longitudinal study of optimism, pessimism and depression.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To examine whether optimism/pessimism reliably predicts depression and whether such function is stable also in older age.
  
  
  METHODS
  In a prospective study, we observed a representative sample of n = 4,046 primary care patients over 5 years. The Life Orientation Test (LOT-R, measuring optimism/pessimism) and the Depression-Screening Questionnaire were applied. Medical diagnoses were recorded by the treating physician in a structured medical interview.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Depression could only be predicted by LOT-R scores in younger-age cohorts. In older adults, test stability and predictive accuracy of optimism/pessimism were markedly reduced, while somatic comorbidity gained importance as a predictor.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Predictive value of screening measures for mental disorders may be specific in older age due to lower trait stability and age-specific psychometric limitations as well as age-related changes in relevant predictors.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Personality and Individual Differences, Technische Universitaet Dresden, 01062, Dresden, Germany, diana.armbruster@tu-dresden.de.
authors.forename: Diana
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Armbruster
authors.forename: Lars
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Pieper
authors.forename: Jens
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Klotsche
authors.forename: Jürgen
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Hoyer
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000339:Affect / Q000145:classification*; D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000375:Aging / Q000523:psychology*; D001290:Attitude; D003430:Cross-Sectional Studies; D003863:Depression / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology*; D005260:Female; D005858:Germany; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D017533:Marital Status; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D015995:Prevalence; D011320:Primary Health Care; D011446:Prospective Studies; D017678:Sex Distribution; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D055815:Young Adult