title: Multimodal prediction of dementia with up to 10 years follow up: the Gothenburg MCI study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Neuropsychological tests, CSF Aβ42, T-tau, P-tau181, hippocampal volume, and white matter lesions have been shown to predict conversion to dementia in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI).
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To examine the predictive value of combinations of these markers and to examine if the absence of pathological markers provides a lasting reduction of conversion rates.
  
  
  METHODS
  The Gothenburg MCI study is a clinically based study. Seventy-three MCI patients were included in the present sub-study and followed for a maximum of ten years. Thirty-four patients converted to dementia (18 to AD) and 39 remained stable. At inclusion, patients were classified into positive or negative risk groups according to results from neuropsychological testing (Rey auditory verbal learning test, Boston naming test, Trail making test B), CSF biomarkers (amyloid β42, T-tau, and P-tau181), and MRI scans (hippocampal volume, white matter lesions).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Trail making test B (TMT-B) was the best single predictor for the prediction of dementia (AUC 0.89, HR 25), and T-tau was the best predictor of AD (AUC 0.97, HR 41). The combination of hippocampal volume and TMT-B was the best combination for the prediction of dementia (HR 25), and the combination of hippocampal volume and T-tau was the best combination for the prediction of AD (HR 37).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Neuropsychological tests, CSF markers, and hippocampal volume predicted conversion from MCI to AD and general dementia. The absence of pathological markers provided a long-time protection from dementia.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, the Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg, Mölndal, Sweden.
authors.forename: Carl
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Eckerström
authors.affiliation: Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, the Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg, Mölndal, Sweden.
authors.forename: Erik
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Olsson
authors.affiliation: Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, the Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg, Mölndal, Sweden.
authors.forename: Niklas
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Klasson
authors.affiliation: Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, the Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg, Mölndal, Sweden.
authors.forename: Josef
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Berge
authors.affiliation: Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, the Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg, Mölndal, Sweden.
authors.forename: Arto
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Nordlund
authors.affiliation: Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, the Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg, Mölndal, Sweden.
authors.forename: Maria
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bjerke
authors.affiliation: Institute of Neuroscience and Physiology, the Sahlgrenska Academy at University of Gothenburg, Mölndal, Sweden.
authors.forename: Anders
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Wallin
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000544:Alzheimer Disease / Q000134:cerebrospinal fluid / Q000175:diagnosis; D016229:Amyloid beta-Peptides / Q000134:cerebrospinal fluid*; D019540:Area Under Curve; D060825:Cognitive Dysfunction / Q000134:cerebrospinal fluid / Q000175:diagnosis; D003704:Dementia / Q000134:cerebrospinal fluid* / Q000175:diagnosis*; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D006624:Hippocampus / Q000473:pathology; D006801:Humans; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008279:Magnetic Resonance Imaging; D008297:Male; D008609:Mental Status Schedule; D008875:Middle Aged; D009483:Neuropsychological Tests; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D016875:tau Proteins / Q000134:cerebrospinal fluid*
chemical_list: D016229:Amyloid beta-Peptides; D016875:tau Proteins
keywords: Cerebrospinal fluid; dementia; magnetic resonance imaging; mild cognitive impairment; neuropsychological test