title: Time-specific ecologic niche models forecast the risk of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Dongting Lake district, China, 2005-2010.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-borne infectious disease, is one of the most serious public health threats in China. Increasing our understanding of the spatial and temporal patterns of HFRS infections could guide local prevention and control strategies.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We employed statistical models to analyze HFRS case data together with environmental data from the Dongting Lake district during 2005-2010. Specifically, time-specific ecologic niche models (ENMs) were used to quantify and identify risk factors associated with HFRS transmission as well as forecast seasonal variation in risk across geographic areas. Results showed that the Maximum Entropy model provided the best predictive ability (AUC = 0.755). Time-specific Maximum Entropy models showed that the potential risk areas of HFRS significantly varied across seasons. High-risk areas were mainly found in the southeastern and southwestern areas of the Dongting Lake district. Our findings based on models focused on the spring and winter seasons showed particularly good performance. The potential risk areas were smaller in March, May and August compared with those identified for June, July and October to December. Both normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and land use types were found to be the dominant risk factors.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our findings indicate that time-specific ENMs provide a useful tool to forecast the spatial and temporal risk of HFRS.
authors.affiliation: College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China.
authors.forename: Hai-Ning
authors.initials: HN
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China.
authors.forename: Li-Dong
authors.initials: LD
authors.lastname: Gao
authors.affiliation: Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America; Simon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational & Modeling Sciences Center, School of Human Evolution and Social Change, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona, United States of America.
authors.forename: Gerardo
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Chowell
authors.affiliation: Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha, China.
authors.forename: Shi-Xiong
authors.initials: SX
authors.lastname: Hu
authors.affiliation: College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China.
authors.forename: Xiao-Ling
authors.initials: XL
authors.lastname: Lin
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan, China.
authors.forename: Xiu-Jun
authors.initials: XJ
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China.
authors.forename: Gui-Hua
authors.initials: GH
authors.lastname: Ma
authors.affiliation: College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China.
authors.forename: Ru
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Huang
authors.affiliation: Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Beijing Military Region, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Hui-Suo
authors.initials: HS
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.affiliation: College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China.
authors.forename: Huaiyu
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Tian
authors.affiliation: College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China.
authors.forename: Hong
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Xiao
mesh_terms: D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006480:Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D060106:Lakes; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D012621:Seasons