title: National health expenditure projections, 2013-23: faster growth expected with expanded coverage and improving economy.
abstract: In 2013 health spending growth is expected to have remained slow, at 3.6 percent, as a result of the sluggish economic recovery, the effects of sequestration, and continued increases in private health insurance cost-sharing requirements. The combined effects of the Affordable Care Act's coverage expansions, faster economic growth, and population aging are expected to fuel health spending growth this year and thereafter (5.6 percent in 2014 and 6.0 percent per year for 2015-23). However, the average rate of increase through 2023 is projected to be slower than the 7.2 percent average growth experienced during 1990-2008. Because health spending is projected to grow 1.1 percentage points faster than the average economic growth during 2013-23, the health share of the gross domestic product is expected to rise from 17.2 percent in 2012 to 19.3 percent in 2023.
authors.affiliation: Andrea M. Sisko (DNHS@cms.hhs.gov) is an economist in the Office of the Actuary at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), in Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Andrea M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Sisko
authors.affiliation: Sean P. Keehan is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: Sean P
authors.initials: SP
authors.lastname: Keehan
authors.affiliation: Gigi A. Cuckler is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: Gigi A
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Cuckler
authors.affiliation: Andrew J. Madison is an actuary in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: Andrew J
authors.initials: AJ
authors.lastname: Madison
authors.affiliation: Sheila D. Smith is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: Sheila D
authors.initials: SD
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.affiliation: Christian J. Wolfe is an actuary in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: Christian J
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Wolfe
authors.affiliation: Devin A. Stone is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: Devin A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Stone
authors.affiliation: Joseph M. Lizonitz is an actuary in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: Joseph M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Lizonitz
authors.affiliation: John A. Poisal is deputy director of the National Health Statistics Group, CMS Office of the Actuary.
authors.forename: John A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Poisal
mesh_terms: D016527:Drug Costs / Q000639:trends; D005544:Forecasting; D059066:Gross Domestic Product / Q000639:trends; D005102:Health Expenditures / Q000639:trends*; D006761:Hospitals / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D006801:Humans; D019458:Insurance Coverage / Q000639:trends*; D007348:Insurance, Health / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends; D008484:Medicaid / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends; D006278:Medicare / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends; D017059:Models, Econometric; D058991:Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act / Q000639:trends; D010820:Physicians / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D055553:Prescription Drugs / Q000191:economics / Q000627:therapeutic use; D014481:United States
chemical_list: D055553:Prescription Drugs
keywords: Cost of Health Care; Financing Health Care; Health Spending