title: Integrating temperature-dependent life table data into a matrix projection model for Drosophila suzukii population estimation.
abstract: Temperature-dependent fecundity and survival data was integrated into a matrix population model to describe relative Drosophila suzukii Matsumura (Diptera: Drosophilidae) population increase and age structure based on environmental conditions. This novel modification of the classic Leslie matrix population model is presented as a way to examine how insect populations interact with the environment, and has application as a predictor of population density. For D. suzukii, we examined model implications for pest pressure on crops. As case studies, we examined model predictions in three small fruit production regions in the United States (US) and one in Italy. These production regions have distinctly different climates. In general, patterns of adult D. suzukii trap activity broadly mimicked seasonal population levels predicted by the model using only temperature data. Age structure of estimated populations suggest that trap and fruit infestation data are of limited value and are insufficient for model validation. Thus, we suggest alternative experiments for validation. The model is advantageous in that it provides stage-specific population estimation, which can potentially guide management strategies and provide unique opportunities to simulate stage-specific management effects such as insecticide applications or the effect of biological control on a specific life-stage. The two factors that drive initiation of the model are suitable temperatures (biofix) and availability of a suitable host medium (fruit). Although there are many factors affecting population dynamics of D. suzukii in the field, temperature-dependent survival and reproduction are believed to be the main drivers for D. suzukii populations.
authors.affiliation: Department of Horticulture, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, United States of America.
authors.forename: Nik G
authors.initials: NG
authors.lastname: Wiman
authors.affiliation: Department of Horticulture, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, United States of America.
authors.forename: Vaughn M
authors.initials: VM
authors.lastname: Walton
authors.affiliation: Department of Horticulture, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, United States of America.
authors.forename: Daniel T
authors.initials: DT
authors.lastname: Dalton
authors.affiliation: Research and Innovation Centre and Technology Transfer Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Trento, Italy.
authors.forename: Gianfranco
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Anfora
authors.affiliation: Department of Entomology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.
authors.forename: Hannah J
authors.initials: HJ
authors.lastname: Burrack
authors.affiliation: Department of Entomology and Nematology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Joanna C
authors.initials: JC
authors.lastname: Chiu
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Science, Policy & Management, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Kent M
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Daane
authors.affiliation: Research and Innovation Centre and Technology Transfer Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Trento, Italy.
authors.forename: Alberto
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Grassi
authors.affiliation: Department of Horticulture, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, United States of America.
authors.forename: Betsey
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Miller
authors.affiliation: Department of Horticulture, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon, United States of America.
authors.forename: Samantha
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Tochen
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Science, Policy & Management, University of California, Berkeley, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Xingeng
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Research and Innovation Centre and Technology Transfer Centre, Fondazione Edmund Mach, San Michele all'Adige, Trento, Italy.
authors.forename: Claudio
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Ioriatti
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D018556:Crops, Agricultural; D004330:Drosophila / Q000254:growth & development / Q000502:physiology*; D005260:Female; D005298:Fertility; D005638:Fruit; D007300:Insect Control / Q000379:methods; D007558:Italy; D015993:Life Tables; D008954:Models, Biological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D000069457:Population Forecast; D013696:Temperature; D014481:United States