title: Uncertainty in Cost Performance as a Function of the Cusp Catastrophe in the NASA Program Performance Management System.
abstract: Cost performance by NASA programs can generate two stable states within the organization system used for program performance management. These states could be stable individually or show multistability with cusp-like behavior. To test this, we constructed a cusp catastrophe model in a multilevel modeling (HLM) procedure on the cost components of an eleven-month period of one NASA program. HLM was used for its ability to estimate random effects as replacements for unknown control parameters. The cusp catastrophe model was a good description of the data and there was some evidence that the overall budget size functioned as a control parameter. Results are presented in terms of three different forms of uncertainty: attractor strength, unistability or multistability, and control parameters. Recommendations and future directions are focused towards understanding the cause of uncertainty in complex management systems.
authors.affiliation: University of Utah, Salt Lake City UT.
authors.forename: Jonathan E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Butner
authors.affiliation: NASA, Houston TX.
authors.forename: H Lawrence
authors.initials: HL
authors.lastname: Dyer
authors.affiliation: University of Utah, Salt Lake City UT.
authors.forename: Thomas S
authors.initials: TS
authors.lastname: Malloy
authors.affiliation: NASA, Houston TX.
authors.forename: Lucy V
authors.initials: LV
authors.lastname: Kranz