title: A predictive microsimulation model to estimate the clinical relevance of reducing alcohol consumption in alcohol dependence.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Alcohol consumption is one of the most important factors for disease and disability in Europe. In clinical trials, nalmefene has resulted in a significant reduction in the number of heavy-drinking days (HDDs) per month and total alcohol consumption (TAC) among alcohol-dependent patients versus placebo.
  
  
  METHODS
  A microsimulation model was developed to estimate alcohol-attributable diseases and injuries in patients with alcohol dependence and to explore the clinical relevance of reducing alcohol consumption.
  
  
  RESULTS
  For all diseases and injuries considered, the number of events (inpatient episodes) increased with the number of HDDs and TAC per year. The model predicted that a reduction of 20 HDDs per year would result in 941 fewer alcohol-attributable events per 100,000 patients, while a reduction in intake of 3,000 g/year of pure alcohol (ethanol) would result in 1,325 fewer events per 100,000 patients.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The potential gains of reducing consumption in alcohol-dependent patients were considerable.
authors.affiliation: Lundbeck SAS, Issy-les-Moulineaux, France.
authors.forename: Clément
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: François
authors.forename: Philippe
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Laramée
authors.forename: Nora
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Rahhali
authors.forename: Ylana
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Chalem
authors.forename: Samuel
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Aballéa
authors.forename: Aurélie
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Millier
authors.forename: Sébastien
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Bineau
authors.forename: Mondher
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Toumi
authors.forename: Jürgen
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Rehm
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000517:prevention & control*; D019973:Alcohol-Related Disorders / Q000209:etiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D000437:Alcoholism / Q000150:complications / Q000534:rehabilitation*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004739:England; D005260:Female; D040261:Harm Reduction; D006801:Humans; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009271:Naltrexone / Q000031:analogs & derivatives* / Q000627:therapeutic use; D009292:Narcotic Antagonists / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D014947:Wounds and Injuries / Q000209:etiology / Q000517:prevention & control*
chemical_list: D009292:Narcotic Antagonists; D009271:Naltrexone; C038981:nalmefene