title: Predictive models for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in type 2 diabetic inpatients. A cohort study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Many authors have analysed premature mortality in cohorts of type 2 diabetic patients, but no analyses have assessed mortality in hospitalised diabetic patients.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To construct predictive models to estimate the likelihood of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality in type 2 diabetic inpatients.
  
  
  METHODS
  Cohort study with follow-up from 2010 to 2014.
  
  
  METHODS
  We evaluated mortality in a randomly selected cohort of 112 type 2 diabetic inpatients at the Hospital of Elda (Spain) in 2010-2012.
  
  
  RESULTS
  all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality during the follow-up. Other variables: gender, age, depression, asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, dyslipidemia, insulin, pills, smoking, walking, baseline blood glucose and creatinine. Predictive tables with risk groups were constructed to estimate the likelihood of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality. Calculations were made of the area under the ROC curve (AUC).
  
  
  RESULTS
  During the follow-up, 52 inpatients died (46.4%, 95% CI, confidence interval: 37.2-55.7%), 22 because of cardiovascular causes (19.6%, 95% CI: 12.3-27.0%). The mean follow-up time was 2.7 ± 1.5 years. The AUC for the all-cause mortality model was 0.84 (95% CI: 0.77-0.92, p < 0.001). Associated parameters: pills, smoking, walking, gender, insulin and age. The AUC for the cardiovascular mortality model was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.67-0.91, p < 0.001). Associated parameters: age, pills, walking, smoking, depression and insulin.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study provides tools to predict premature mortality in type 2 diabetic inpatients. However, before their general application they require joint validation by the internal medicine unit, emergency department, primary healthcare unit and endocrinology service to enable better prediction of the prognosis and more adequate decision-taking.
authors.affiliation: Research Unit, Elda Hospital, Elda, Spain; Department of Clinical Medicine, Miguel Hernández University, San Juan de Alicante, Spain.
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Ramírez-Prado
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Palazón-Bru
authors.forename: D M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Folgado-de-la Rosa
authors.forename: M Á
authors.initials: MÁ
authors.lastname: Carbonell-Torregrosa
authors.forename: A M
authors.initials: AM
authors.lastname: Martínez-Díaz
authors.forename: V F
authors.initials: VF
authors.lastname: Gil-Guillén
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D019540:Area Under Curve; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000150:complications / Q000401:mortality*; D002423:Cause of Death; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000150:complications / Q000401:mortality*; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D017052:Hospital Mortality; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012307:Risk Factors; D013030:Spain / Q000453:epidemiology