title: Prediction of disease progression, treatment response and dropout in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Drug development in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been characterised by unacceptably high failure rates. In addition to the poor sensitivity in forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), numerous causes are known to contribute to this phenomenon, which can be clustered into drug-, disease- and design-related factors. Here we present a model-based approach to describe disease progression, treatment response and dropout in clinical trials with COPD patients.
  
  
  METHODS
  Data from six phase II trials lasting up to 6 months were used. Disease progression (trough FEV1 measurements) was modelled by a time-varying function, whilst the treatment effect was described by an indirect response model. A time-to-event model was used for dropout
  
  
  RESULTS
  All relevant parameters were characterised with acceptable precision. Two parameters were necessary to model the dropout patterns, which was found to be partly linked to the treatment failure. Disease severity at baseline, previous use of corticosteroids, gender and height were significant covariates on disease baseline whereas disease severity and reversibility to salbutamol/salmeterol were significant covariates on Emax for salmeterol active arm.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Incorporation of the various interacting factors into a single model will offer the basis for patient enrichment and improved dose rationale in COPD.
authors.affiliation: Gorlaeus Laboratories, Division of Pharmacology, Leiden Academic Centre for Drug Research, P.O. Box 9502, 2300 RA, Leiden, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: F T
authors.initials: FT
authors.lastname: Musuamba
authors.forename: D
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Teutonico
authors.forename: H J
authors.initials: HJ
authors.lastname: Maas
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Facius
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Danhof
authors.forename: O
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Della Pasqua
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005541:Forced Expiratory Volume / Q000502:physiology; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010352:Patient Dropouts; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D029424:Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000628:therapy*; D016896:Treatment Outcome