title: Epidemiological dynamics of Ebola outbreaks.
abstract: Ebola is a deadly virus that causes frequent disease outbreaks in the human population. In this study, we analyse its rate of new introductions, case fatality ratio, and potential to spread from person to person. The analysis is performed for all completed outbreaks and for a scenario where these are augmented by a more severe outbreak of several thousand cases. The results show a fast rate of new outbreaks, a high case fatality ratio, and an effective reproductive ratio of just less than 1.
authors.affiliation: 1Warwick Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: House
mesh_terms: D003198:Computer Simulation; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D019142:Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D006801:Humans
keywords: Ebola; Ebola virus; R0; case fatality ratio; epidemiology; global health; infectious disease; microbiology; none