title: A fault tree model to assess probability of contaminant discharge from shipwrecks.
abstract: Shipwrecks on the sea floor around the world may contain hazardous substances that can cause harm to the marine environment. Today there are no comprehensive methods for environmental risk assessment of shipwrecks, and thus there is poor support for decision-making on prioritization of mitigation measures. The purpose of this study was to develop a tool for quantitative risk estimation of potentially polluting shipwrecks, and in particular an estimation of the annual probability of hazardous substance discharge. The assessment of the probability of discharge is performed using fault tree analysis, facilitating quantification of the probability with respect to a set of identified hazardous events. This approach enables a structured assessment providing transparent uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. The model facilitates quantification of risk, quantification of the uncertainties in the risk calculation and identification of parameters to be investigated further in order to obtain a more reliable risk calculation.
authors.affiliation: Department of Shipping and Marine Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden. Electronic address: hanna.landquist@chalmers.se.
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Landquist
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden. Electronic address: lars.rosen@chalmers.se.
authors.forename: L
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Rosén
authors.affiliation: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden. Electronic address: andreas.lindhe@chalmers.se.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Lindhe
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology and University of Gothenburg, SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden. Electronic address: tommy.norberg@chalmers.se.
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Norberg
authors.affiliation: Department of Shipping and Marine Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden. Electronic address: ida-maja@chalmers.se.
authors.forename: I-M
authors.initials: IM
authors.lastname: Hassellöv
authors.affiliation: Department of Shipping and Marine Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Gothenburg, Sweden. Electronic address: f.lindgren@chalmers.se.
authors.forename: J F
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Lindgren
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Box 461, SE-405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden. Electronic address: ingela.dahllof@bioenv.gu.se.
authors.forename: I
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Dahllöf
mesh_terms: D000059:Accidents; D003657:Decision Making; D004777:Environment; D015386:Hazardous Substances; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009010:Monte Carlo Method; D011336:Probability; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*; D012767:Ships; D035501:Uncertainty
chemical_list: D015386:Hazardous Substances
keywords: Fault tree analysis; Oil; Risk assessment; Shipwreck