title: Climate change. Six centuries of variability and extremes in a coupled marine-terrestrial ecosystem.
abstract: Reported trends in the mean and variability of coastal upwelling in eastern boundary currents have raised concerns about the future of these highly productive and biodiverse marine ecosystems. However, the instrumental records on which these estimates are based are insufficiently long to determine whether such trends exceed preindustrial limits. In the California Current, a 576-year reconstruction of climate variables associated with winter upwelling indicates that variability increased over the latter 20th century to levels equaled only twice during the past 600 years. This modern trend in variance may be unique, because it appears to be driven by an unprecedented succession of extreme, downwelling-favorable, winter climate conditions that profoundly reduce productivity for marine predators of commercial and conservation interest.
authors.affiliation: University of Texas Marine Science Institute, 750 Channel View Drive, Port Aransas, TX 78373, USA. bryan.black@utexas.edu.
authors.forename: Bryan A
authors.initials: BA
authors.lastname: Black
authors.affiliation: Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research, 101 H Street, Suite Q, Petaluma, CA 94952, USA.
authors.forename: William J
authors.initials: WJ
authors.lastname: Sydeman
authors.affiliation: Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zürcherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Zähringerstrasse 25, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.
authors.forename: David C
authors.initials: DC
authors.lastname: Frank
authors.affiliation: Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, 266 Woods Hole Road, Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA.
authors.forename: Daniel
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Griffin
authors.affiliation: Department of Geosciences, University of Arkansas, 216 Ozark Hall, Fayetteville, AR 72701, USA.
authors.forename: David W
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: Stahle
authors.affiliation: Farallon Institute for Advanced Ecosystem Research, 101 H Street, Suite Q, Petaluma, CA 94952, USA.
authors.forename: Marisol
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: García-Reyes
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences and Marine Science Program, University of South Carolina, 701 Sumter Street, Columbia, SC 29208, USA.
authors.forename: Ryan R
authors.initials: RR
authors.lastname: Rykaczewski
authors.affiliation: Environmental Research Division, Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 1352 Lighthouse Avenue, Pacific Grove, CA 93950, USA.
authors.forename: Steven J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Bograd
authors.affiliation: Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Hatfield Marine Science Center, NOAA, 2030 Southeast Marine Science Drive, Newport, OR 97365, USA.
authors.forename: William T
authors.initials: WT
authors.lastname: Peterson
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D059001:Aquatic Organisms; D044822:Biodiversity; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D020387:Food Chain; D009792:Oceans and Seas; D012621:Seasons