title: Mathematical modeling of bacterial kinetics to predict the impact of antibiotic colonic exposure and treatment duration on the amount of resistant enterobacteria excreted.
abstract: Fecal excretion of antibiotics and resistant bacteria in the environment are major public health threats associated with extensive farming and modern medical care. Innovative strategies that can reduce the intestinal antibiotic concentrations during treatments are in development. However, the effect of lower exposure on the amount of resistant enterobacteria excreted has not been quantified, making it difficult to anticipate the impact of these strategies. Here, we introduce a bacterial kinetic model to capture the complex relationships between drug exposure, loss of susceptible enterobacteria and growth of resistant strains in the feces of piglets receiving placebo, 1.5 or 15 mg/kg/day ciprofloxacin, a fluoroquinolone, for 5 days. The model could well describe the kinetics of drug susceptible and resistant enterobacteria observed during treatment, and up to 22 days after treatment cessation. Next, the model was used to predict the expected amount of resistant enterobacteria excreted over an average piglet's lifetime (150 days) when varying drug exposure and treatment duration. For the clinically relevant dose of 15 mg/kg/day for 5 days, the total amount of resistant enterobacteria excreted was predicted to be reduced by 75% and 98% when reducing treatment duration to 3 and 1 day treatment, respectively. Alternatively, for a fixed 5-days treatment, the level of resistance excreted could be reduced by 18%, 33%, 57.5% and 97% if 3, 5, 10 and 30 times lower levels of colonic drug concentrations were achieved, respectively. This characterization on in vivo data of the dynamics of resistance to antibiotics in the colonic flora could provide new insights into the mechanism of dissemination of resistance and can be used to design strategies aiming to reduce it.
authors.affiliation: IAME, UMR 1137, INSERM, Paris, France; IAME, UMR 1137, Univ Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France.
authors.forename: Thu Thuy
authors.initials: TT
authors.lastname: Nguyen
authors.affiliation: IAME, UMR 1137, INSERM, Paris, France; IAME, UMR 1137, Univ Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France.
authors.forename: Jeremie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Guedj
authors.affiliation: Institut Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif, France.
authors.forename: Elisabeth
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Chachaty
authors.affiliation: Da Volterra, Paris, France.
authors.forename: Jean
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: de Gunzburg
authors.affiliation: IAME, UMR 1137, INSERM, Paris, France; IAME, UMR 1137, Univ Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France; AP-HP, Hôpital Bichat, Paris, France.
authors.forename: Antoine
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Andremont
authors.affiliation: IAME, UMR 1137, INSERM, Paris, France; IAME, UMR 1137, Univ Paris Diderot, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris, France; AP-HP, Hôpital Bichat, Paris, France.
authors.forename: France
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Mentré
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents / Q000493:pharmacokinetics* / Q000494:pharmacology*; D002939:Ciprofloxacin / Q000493:pharmacokinetics / Q000494:pharmacology; D003106:Colon / Q000382:microbiology; D024881:Drug Resistance, Bacterial; D004755:Enterobacteriaceae / Q000187:drug effects*; D005243:Feces / Q000737:chemistry* / Q000382:microbiology*; D024841:Fluoroquinolones / Q000493:pharmacokinetics / Q000494:pharmacology; D007700:Kinetics; D008954:Models, Biological; D013552:Swine
chemical_list: D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents; D024841:Fluoroquinolones; D002939:Ciprofloxacin