title: Impacts of land cover data selection and trait parameterisation on dynamic modelling of species' range expansion.
abstract: Dynamic models for range expansion provide a promising tool for assessing species' capacity to respond to climate change by shifting their ranges to new areas. However, these models include a number of uncertainties which may affect how successfully they can be applied to climate change oriented conservation planning. We used RangeShifter, a novel dynamic and individual-based modelling platform, to study two potential sources of such uncertainties: the selection of land cover data and the parameterization of key life-history traits. As an example, we modelled the range expansion dynamics of two butterfly species, one habitat specialist (Maniola jurtina) and one generalist (Issoria lathonia). Our results show that projections of total population size, number of occupied grid cells and the mean maximal latitudinal range shift were all clearly dependent on the choice made between using CORINE land cover data vs. using more detailed grassland data from three alternative national databases. Range expansion was also sensitive to the parameterization of the four considered life-history traits (magnitude and probability of long-distance dispersal events, population growth rate and carrying capacity), with carrying capacity and magnitude of long-distance dispersal showing the strongest effect. Our results highlight the sensitivity of dynamic species population models to the selection of existing land cover data and to uncertainty in the model parameters and indicate that these need to be carefully evaluated before the models are applied to conservation planning.
authors.affiliation: Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: Risto K
authors.initials: RK
authors.lastname: Heikkinen
authors.affiliation: Institute of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Greta
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Bocedi
authors.affiliation: Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: Mikko
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Kuussaari
authors.affiliation: Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: Janne
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Heliölä
authors.affiliation: Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: Niko
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Leikola
authors.affiliation: Finnish Environment Institute, Natural Environment Centre, Helsinki, Finland.
authors.forename: Juha
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Pöyry
authors.affiliation: Institute of Biological Sciences, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Justin M J
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Travis
mesh_terms: D025041:Animal Migration; D000818:Animals; D002080:Butterflies; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D017753:Ecosystem; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D005387:Finland; D065948:Grassland; D008954:Models, Biological; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics