title: Stepping inside the niche: microclimate data are critical for accurate assessment of species' vulnerability to climate change.
abstract: To assess a species' vulnerability to climate change, we commonly use mapped environmental data that are coarsely resolved in time and space. Coarsely resolved temperature data are typically inaccurate at predicting temperatures in microhabitats used by an organism and may also exhibit spatial bias in topographically complex areas. One consequence of these inaccuracies is that coarsely resolved layers may predict thermal regimes at a site that exceed species' known thermal limits. In this study, we use statistical downscaling to account for environmental factors and develop high-resolution estimates of daily maximum temperatures for a 36 000 km(2) study area over a 38-year period. We then demonstrate that this statistical downscaling provides temperature estimates that consistently place focal species within their fundamental thermal niche, whereas coarsely resolved layers do not. Our results highlight the need for incorporation of fine-scale weather data into species' vulnerability analyses and demonstrate that a statistical downscaling approach can yield biologically relevant estimates of thermal regimes.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, College of Marine and Environmental Science, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4810, Australia collin.storlie@my.jcu.edu.au.
authors.forename: Collin
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Storlie
authors.affiliation: Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, College of Marine and Environmental Science, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4810, Australia Museo de Zoología, Escuela de Biología, Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador, Quito, Ecuador.
authors.forename: Andres
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Merino-Viteri
authors.affiliation: Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, College of Marine and Environmental Science, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4810, Australia Department of Zoology, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
authors.forename: Ben
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Phillips
authors.affiliation: Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, College of Marine and Environmental Science, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4810, Australia eResearch Centre, Division of Research and Innovation, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4810, Australia.
authors.forename: Jeremy
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: VanDerWal
authors.affiliation: Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, College of Marine and Environmental Science, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4810, Australia Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, University of Western Sydney, Penrith, New South Wales, Australia.
authors.forename: Justin
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Welbergen
authors.affiliation: Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change, College of Marine and Environmental Science, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4810, Australia.
authors.forename: Stephen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Williams
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001001:Anura / Q000502:physiology*; D001315:Australia; D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D065928:Forests; D006358:Hot Temperature; D008834:Microclimate
keywords: climate change; exposure; sensitivity; spatial weather layers; vulnerability