title: Smoothing strategies combined with ARIMA and neural networks to improve the forecasting of traffic accidents.
abstract: Two smoothing strategies combined with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive neural networks (ANNs) models to improve the forecasting of time series are presented. The strategy of forecasting is implemented using two stages. In the first stage the time series is smoothed using either, 3-point moving average smoothing, or singular value Decomposition of the Hankel matrix (HSVD). In the second stage, an ARIMA model and two ANNs for one-step-ahead time series forecasting are used. The coefficients of the first ANN are estimated through the particle swarm optimization (PSO) learning algorithm, while the coefficients of the second ANN are estimated with the resilient backpropagation (RPROP) learning algorithm. The proposed models are evaluated using a weekly time series of traffic accidents of Valparaíso, Chilean region, from 2003 to 2012. The best result is given by the combination HSVD-ARIMA, with a MAPE of 0:26%, followed by MA-ARIMA with a MAPE of 1:12%; the worst result is given by the MA-ANN based on PSO with a MAPE of 15:51%.
authors.affiliation: Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, 2362807 Valparaíso, Chile ; Universidad Nacional de Chimborazo, 33730880 Riobamba, Ecuador.
authors.forename: Lida
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-4191-9497
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Barba
authors.affiliation: Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, 2362807 Valparaíso, Chile.
authors.forename: Nibaldo
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Rodríguez
authors.affiliation: Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, 2362807 Valparaíso, Chile.
authors.forename: Cecilia
authors.identifier: 0000-0001-9559-6836
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Montt
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000639:trends*; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods; D006801:Humans; D065186:Interrupted Time Series Analysis / Q000379:methods / Q000639:trends*; D016571:Neural Networks, Computer