title: Persistence and change in community composition of reef corals through present, past, and future climates.
abstract: The reduction in coral cover on many contemporary tropical reefs suggests a different set of coral community assemblages will dominate future reefs. To evaluate the capacity of reef corals to persist over various time scales, we examined coral community dynamics in contemporary, fossil, and simulated future coral reef ecosystems. Based on studies between 1987 and 2012 at two locations in the Caribbean, and between 1981 and 2013 at five locations in the Indo-Pacific, we show that many coral genera declined in abundance, some showed no change in abundance, and a few coral genera increased in abundance. Whether the abundance of a genus declined, increased, or was conserved, was independent of coral family. An analysis of fossil-reef communities in the Caribbean revealed changes in numerical dominance and relative abundances of coral genera, and demonstrated that neither dominance nor taxon was associated with persistence. As coral family was a poor predictor of performance on contemporary reefs, a trait-based, dynamic, multi-patch model was developed to explore the phenotypic basis of ecological performance in a warmer future. Sensitivity analyses revealed that upon exposure to thermal stress, thermal tolerance, growth rate, and longevity were the most important predictors of coral persistence. Together, our results underscore the high variation in the rates and direction of change in coral abundances on contemporary and fossil reefs. Given this variation, it remains possible that coral reefs will be populated by a subset of the present coral fauna in a future that is warmer than the recent past.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, California State University Northridge, Northridge, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Peter J
authors.initials: PJ
authors.lastname: Edmunds
authors.affiliation: Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Unité de Recherche CoReUs, Observatoire Océanologique de Banyuls, Banyuls-sur-Mer, France; Laboratoire d'Excellence "CORAIL", Perpignan, France.
authors.forename: Mehdi
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Adjeroud
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Marissa L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Baskett
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
authors.forename: Iliana B
authors.initials: IB
authors.lastname: Baums
authors.affiliation: Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Iowa, Iowa City, Iowa, United States of America.
authors.forename: Ann F
authors.initials: AF
authors.lastname: Budd
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, California State University Northridge, Northridge, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Robert C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Carpenter
authors.affiliation: Center for Population Biology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Nicholas S
authors.initials: NS
authors.lastname: Fabina
authors.affiliation: National Museum of Marine Biology and Aquarium, Taiwan, Republic of China.
authors.forename: Tung-Yung
authors.initials: TY
authors.lastname: Fan
authors.affiliation: Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Kaneohe, Hawaii, United States of America.
authors.forename: Erik C
authors.initials: EC
authors.lastname: Franklin
authors.affiliation: Biomathematics Program, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America.
authors.forename: Kevin
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Gross
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology and the Coastal Research Center, Marine Science Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America; National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Xueying
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Han
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, California State University Northridge, Northridge, California, United States of America; Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, United States of America.
authors.forename: Lianne
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Jacobson
authors.affiliation: Department of Geological Sciences, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, United States of America.
authors.forename: James S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Klaus
authors.affiliation: Wildlife Conservation Society, Marine Program, Bronx, New York, United States of America.
authors.forename: Tim R
authors.initials: TR
authors.lastname: McClanahan
authors.affiliation: National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Jennifer K
authors.initials: JK
authors.lastname: O'Leary
authors.affiliation: Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Madeleine J H
authors.initials: MJ
authors.lastname: van Oppen
authors.affiliation: The Cawthron Institute, Nelson, New Zealand.
authors.forename: Xavier
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Pochon
authors.affiliation: Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Kaneohe, Hawaii, United States of America.
authors.forename: Hollie M
authors.initials: HM
authors.lastname: Putnam
authors.affiliation: Center for Marine and Environmental Studies, University of the Virgin Islands, St. Thomas, Virgin Islands, United States of America.
authors.forename: Tyler B
authors.initials: TB
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.affiliation: The University of Western Australia Oceans Institute and the Centre for Microscopy, Characterisation and Analysis, University of Western Australia, Crawley, Western Australia, Australia.
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Stat
authors.affiliation: Australian Institute of Marine Science, Townsville, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Hugh
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Sweatman
authors.affiliation: Department of Biological Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, Florida, United States of America.
authors.forename: Robert
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: van Woesik
authors.affiliation: Hawaii Institute of Marine Biology, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii, Kaneohe, Hawaii, United States of America.
authors.forename: Ruth D
authors.initials: RD
authors.lastname: Gates
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D037421:Anthozoa; D044822:Biodiversity; D002980:Climate; D057894:Coral Reefs; D017753:Ecosystem; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011156:Population Density