title: Mathematical forecasting methods for predicting lead contents in animal organs on the basis of the environmental conditions.
abstract: The main objective of this study was to determine and describe the lead transfer in the soil-plant-animal system in areas polluted with this metal at varying degrees, with the use of mathematical forecasting methods and data mining tools contained in the Statistica 9.0 software programme. The starting point for the forecasting models comprised results derived from an analysis of different features of soil and plants, collected from 139 locations in an area covering 100km(2) around a lead-zinc ore mining and processing plant ('Boleslaw'), at Bukowno in southern Poland. In addition, the lead content was determined in the tissues and organs of 110 small rodents (mainly mice) caught in the same area. The prediction models, elaborated with the use of classification algorithms, forecasted with high probability the class (range) of pollution in animal tissues and organs with lead, based on various soil and plant properties of the study area. However, prediction models which use multilayer neural networks made it possible to calculate the content of lead (predicted versus measured) in animal tissues and organs with an excellent correlation coefficient.
authors.affiliation: Department of Agricultural and Environmental Chemistry, Faculty of Agriculture and Economics, University of Agriculture in Krakow, Al. A. Mickiewicz 21, 31-120 Krakow, Poland. Electronic address: Tomasz.Czech@ur.krakow.pl.
authors.forename: Tomasz
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Czech
authors.affiliation: Department of Agricultural and Environmental Chemistry, Faculty of Agriculture and Economics, University of Agriculture in Krakow, Al. A. Mickiewicz 21, 31-120 Krakow, Poland.
authors.forename: Florian
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Gambuś
authors.affiliation: Department of Agricultural and Environmental Chemistry, Faculty of Agriculture and Economics, University of Agriculture in Krakow, Al. A. Mickiewicz 21, 31-120 Krakow, Poland.
authors.forename: Jerzy
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wieczorek
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D000825:Animal Structures / Q000737:chemistry* / Q000187:drug effects; D000818:Animals; D004777:Environment; D004787:Environmental Pollution / Q000032:analysis; D020387:Food Chain; D005544:Forecasting; D007854:Lead / Q000032:analysis* / Q000633:toxicity; D051379:Mice; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D010944:Plants / Q000737:chemistry; D011044:Poland; D012989:Soil Pollutants / Q000032:analysis*; D015032:Zinc / Q000032:analysis
chemical_list: D012989:Soil Pollutants; D007854:Lead; D015032:Zinc
keywords: Adaptation algorithm; Interpolation methods; Lead transfer; Multilayer neural networks; Pollution with heavy metals