title: Modelling climate change impacts on the seasonality of water resources in the Upper Ca River Watershed in Southeast Asia.
abstract: The impact of climate change on the seasonality of water resources in the Upper Ca River Watershed in mainland Southeast Asia was assessed using downscaled global climate models coupled with the SWAT model. The results indicated that temperature and evapotranspiration will increase in all months of future years. The area could warm as much as 3.4(°)C in the 2090 s, with an increase of annual evapotranspiration of up to 23% in the same period. We found an increase in the seasonality of precipitation (both an increase in the wet season and a decrease in the dry season). The greatest monthly increase of up to 29% and the greatest monthly decrease of up to 30% are expected in the 2090 s. As a result, decreases in dry season discharge and increases in wet season discharge are expected, with a span of ± 25% for the highest monthly changes in the 2090 s. This is expected to exacerbate the problem of seasonally uneven distribution of water resources: a large volume of water in the wet season and a scarcity of water in the dry season, a pattern that indicates the possibility of more frequent floods in the wet season and droughts in the dry season.
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Shizuoka, 52-1 Yada, Suruga-ku, Shizuoka-shi, Shizuoka 422-8526, Japan ; Faculty of Land Management, Vietnam National University of Agriculture, Hanoi 131000, Vietnam.
authors.forename: Pham Quy
authors.initials: PQ
authors.lastname: Giang
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Shizuoka, 52-1 Yada, Suruga-ku, Shizuoka-shi, Shizuoka 422-8526, Japan.
authors.forename: Kosuke
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-1479-5505
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Toshiki
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Shizuoka, 52-1 Yada, Suruga-ku, Shizuoka-shi, Shizuoka 422-8526, Japan.
authors.forename: Masahiro
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sakata
authors.affiliation: Department of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Shizuoka, 52-1 Yada, Suruga-ku, Shizuoka-shi, Shizuoka 422-8526, Japan.
authors.forename: Shoichi
authors.identifier: 0000-0003-2929-0147
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kunikane
authors.affiliation: Faculty of Land Management, Vietnam National University of Agriculture, Hanoi 131000, Vietnam.
authors.forename: Tran Quoc
authors.initials: TQ
authors.lastname: Vinh
mesh_terms: D001210:Asia, Southeastern; D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D055864:Droughts; D055868:Floods; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D045483:Rivers; D012621:Seasons; D062066:Water Resources; D014881:Water Supply