title: Model evaluation based on the negative predictive value for interval-censored survival outcomes.
abstract: In many cohort studies, time to events such as disease recurrence is recorded in an interval-censored format. An important objective is to predict patient outcomes. Clinicians are interested in predictive covariates. Prediction rules based on the receiver operating characteristic curve alone are not related to the survival endpoint. We propose a model evaluation strategy to leverage the predictive accuracy based on negative predictive functions. Our proposed method makes very few assumptions and only requires a working model to obtain the regression coefficients. A nonparametric estimate of the predictive accuracy provides a simple and flexible approach for model evaluation to interval-censored survival outcomes. The implementation effort is minimal, therefore this method has an increased potential for immediate use in biomedical data analyses. Simulation studies and a breast cancer trial example further illustrate the practical advantages of this approach.
authors.affiliation: 1 Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Medicine, University of Ulsan, Seoul, Korea.
authors.forename: Seungbong
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Han
authors.affiliation: 2 Department of Statistics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, USA.
authors.forename: Kam-Wah
authors.initials: KW
authors.lastname: Tsui
authors.affiliation: 3 Bluhm Cardiovascular Institute Clinical Trials Unit, Feinberg School of Medicine, Northwestern University, Chicago, USA.
authors.forename: Adin-Cristian
authors.initials: AC
authors.lastname: Andrei
mesh_terms: D056808:Biostatistics / Q000379:methods; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000188:drug therapy; D017326:Clinical Trials, Phase III as Topic / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D003198:Computer Simulation; D018572:Disease-Free Survival; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011379:Prognosis; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D012008:Recurrence; D018709:Statistics, Nonparametric; D016019:Survival Analysis
keywords: Breast cancer; interval censoring; model evaluation; predictive ability