title: Integrated life-cycle assessment of electricity-supply scenarios confirms global environmental benefit of low-carbon technologies.
abstract: Decarbonization of electricity generation can support climate-change mitigation and presents an opportunity to address pollution resulting from fossil-fuel combustion. Generally, renewable technologies require higher initial investments in infrastructure than fossil-based power systems. To assess the tradeoffs of increased up-front emissions and reduced operational emissions, we present, to our knowledge, the first global, integrated life-cycle assessment (LCA) of long-term, wide-scale implementation of electricity generation from renewable sources (i.e., photovoltaic and solar thermal, wind, and hydropower) and of carbon dioxide capture and storage for fossil power generation. We compare emissions causing particulate matter exposure, freshwater ecotoxicity, freshwater eutrophication, and climate change for the climate-change-mitigation (BLUE Map) and business-as-usual (Baseline) scenarios of the International Energy Agency up to 2050. We use a vintage stock model to conduct an LCA of newly installed capacity year-by-year for each region, thus accounting for changes in the energy mix used to manufacture future power plants. Under the Baseline scenario, emissions of air and water pollutants more than double whereas the low-carbon technologies introduced in the BLUE Map scenario allow a doubling of electricity supply while stabilizing or even reducing pollution. Material requirements per unit generation for low-carbon technologies can be higher than for conventional fossil generation: 11-40 times more copper for photovoltaic systems and 6-14 times more iron for wind power plants. However, only two years of current global copper and one year of iron production will suffice to build a low-carbon energy system capable of supplying the world's electricity needs in 2050.
authors.affiliation: Industrial Ecology Programme, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway;
authors.forename: Edgar G
authors.initials: EG
authors.lastname: Hertwich
authors.affiliation: Industrial Ecology Programme, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway; thomas.gibon@ntnu.no.
authors.forename: Thomas
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Gibon
authors.affiliation: Industrial Ecology Programme, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway;
authors.forename: Evert A
authors.initials: EA
authors.lastname: Bouman
authors.affiliation: Industrial Ecology Programme, Department of Energy and Process Engineering, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway;
authors.forename: Anders
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Arvesen
authors.affiliation: Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106;
authors.forename: Sangwon
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8290-6276
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Suh
authors.affiliation: Technology Systems and Sustainability Analysis Group, Strategic Energy Analysis Center, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, CO 80401;
authors.forename: Garvin A
authors.initials: GA
authors.lastname: Heath
authors.affiliation: Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106;
authors.forename: Joseph D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Bergesen
authors.affiliation: Energy and Resources, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, 3584 CD, Utrecht, The Netherlands;
authors.forename: Andrea
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ramirez
authors.affiliation: Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Concepción, Casilla 160-C, Concepción, Chile; and.
authors.forename: Mabel I
authors.initials: MI
authors.lastname: Vega
authors.affiliation: School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
authors.forename: Lei
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Shi
mesh_terms: D002245:Carbon Dioxide / Q000737:chemistry; D003300:Copper / Q000737:chemistry; D011211:Electric Power Supplies / Q000191:economics*; D004785:Environmental Pollutants / Q000191:economics*; D057232:Global Warming / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D007501:Iron / Q000737:chemistry; D018803:Models, Economic; D059205:Renewable Energy
chemical_list: D004785:Environmental Pollutants; D002245:Carbon Dioxide; D003300:Copper; D007501:Iron
keywords: CO2 capture and storage; air pollution; climate-change mitigation; land use; multiregional input–output