title: A necessarily complex model to explain the biogeography of the amphibians and reptiles of Madagascar.
abstract: Pattern and process are inextricably linked in biogeographic analyses, though we can observe pattern, we must infer process. Inferences of process are often based on ad hoc comparisons using a single spatial predictor. Here, we present an alternative approach that uses mixed-spatial models to measure the predictive potential of combinations of hypotheses. Biodiversity patterns are estimated from 8,362 occurrence records from 745 species of Malagasy amphibians and reptiles. By incorporating 18 spatially explicit predictions of 12 major biogeographic hypotheses, we show that mixed models greatly improve our ability to explain the observed biodiversity patterns. We conclude that patterns are influenced by a combination of diversification processes rather than by a single predominant mechanism. A 'one-size-fits-all' model does not exist. By developing a novel method for examining and synthesizing spatial parameters such as species richness, endemism and community similarity, we demonstrate the potential of these analyses for understanding the diversification history of Madagascar's biota.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708, USA.
authors.forename: Jason L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Brown
authors.affiliation: School of Biological Sciences, Queen's University Belfast, 97 Lisburn Road, Belfast BT9 7BL, UK.
authors.forename: Alison
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Cameron
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708, USA.
authors.forename: Anne D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Yoder
authors.affiliation: Zoological Institute, Technical University of Braunschweig, Mendelssohnstr. 4, 38106 Braunschweig, Germany.
authors.forename: Miguel
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Vences
mesh_terms: D000663:Amphibians; D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D005075:Biological Evolution; D008270:Madagascar; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D058974:Phylogeography; D012104:Reptiles