title: Breast cancer incidence and mortality in a transitioning Chinese population: current and future trends.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Projections of future trends in cancer incidence and mortality are important for public health planning.
  
  
  METHODS
  By using 1976-2010 data in Hong Kong, we fitted Poisson age-period-cohort models and made projections for future breast cancer incidence and mortality to 2025.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Age-standardised breast cancer incidence (/mortality) is projected to increase (/decline) from 56.7 (/9.3) in 2011-2015 to 62.5 (/8.6) per 100,000 women in 2021-2025.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The incidence pattern may relate to Hong Kong's socio-economic developmental history, while falling mortality trends are, most likely, due to improvements in survival from treatment advancement and improved health service delivery.
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
authors.forename: I O L
authors.initials: IO
authors.lastname: Wong
authors.affiliation: 1] School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China [2] City University of New York School of Public Health and Hunter College, New York, NY, USA.
authors.forename: C M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Schooling
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
authors.forename: B J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: Cowling
authors.affiliation: School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
authors.forename: G M
authors.initials: GM
authors.lastname: Leung
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D001943:Breast Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D002681:China / Q000453:epidemiology; D015331:Cohort Studies; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D008875:Middle Aged; D012306:Risk; D055815:Young Adult