title: Bayesian prediction of treatment outcome in anorexia nervosa: a preliminary study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Knowledge of the prognostic factors predicting treatment outcome in anorexia nervosa (AN) measured with health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is limited.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  We performed a novel statistical analysis to identify factors predicting treatment outcome in AN.
  
  
  METHODS
  39 patients entering treatment of an ICD-10-defined AN completed the 15D HRQoL survey, the Eating Disorder Inventory (EDI) and a questionnaire evaluating self reported health status and eating habits before and 2 years after the start of treatment. The analysis was based on a Bayesian approach, which allows analyses of small data sets, and was performed using a naïve Bayes classifier.
  
  
  RESULTS
  An impaired follow-up HRQoL score was associated with three baseline risk factors: low self-reported vitality, high scores in eating control and a poor reported health status. Low baseline body mass index (BMI) and a high score in the eating dimension of the 15D predicted low follow-up BMI.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In our preliminary study, we identified a set of variables predicting poor HRQoL in AN. An effort to treat these symptoms effectively in the beginning of AN treatment may influence the outcome.
authors.affiliation: Veera Pohjolainen, Hospital District of Helsinki and Uusimaa, Department of Psychiatry, Helsinki, Health Centre, Department of Psychiatry, Helsinki, and University of Helsinki , Helsinki , Finland.
authors.forename: Veera
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Pohjolainen
authors.forename: Olli-Pekka
authors.initials: OP
authors.lastname: Ryynänen
authors.forename: Pirjo
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Räsänen
authors.forename: Risto P
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Roine
authors.forename: Salla
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Koponen
authors.forename: Hasse
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Karlsson
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000856:Anorexia Nervosa / Q000523:psychology / Q000628:therapy*; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D006304:Health Status; D006801:Humans; D011788:Quality of Life; D057566:Self Report; D016896:Treatment Outcome; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Anorexia nervosa; Bayes theorem; Bayesian prediction; Eating disorders; Health-related quality of life (HRQoL)