title: Evaluation of prognostic indicators for elderly patients admitted in intensive care units.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The elderly constitute a population with their own features and frequent admissions in intensive care units. This study has the objective to evaluate the ability to predict the survival of these patients through the APACHE II, UNICAMP II, SAPS II and SAPS 3 indexes, global and Central America/South equations.
  
  
  METHODS
  Elderly patients admitted from 01/01/2006 to 12/3/2006, defined as age > 60 years, were included in this study. Those who were readmitted were excluded. The rate of lethality standardized, calibration and discrimination for each index in the remaining patients were analysed. The outcome were death or hospital discharge.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Three hundred eighty six elderly patients were included in this study, being 36 excluded by readmission, remaining 350 for analysis. The rate of lethality standardized came near to the unit in all indexes, except the SAPS II (TLP=1.5455) which underestimated the lethality. The calibration, via Hosmer-Lemeshow tests was inadequate (p < 0.05), except for the UNICAMP II (p > 0.5). On the calibration curve, the models have distanced themselves from the pattern line. All of them presented an excellent discrimination via receiver operating characteristics curves (> 0.8).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  In the studied population, the models presented an excellent discrimination and inadequate calibration. SAPS II underestimated the lethality.
authors.affiliation: Centro de Terapia Intensiva Adulto, Hospital Jardim Cuiabá, Cuiabá, MT, Brasil.
authors.forename: Carlos José
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Alves
authors.affiliation: Centro de Terapia Intensiva Adulto, Hospital Jardim Cuiabá, Cuiabá, MT, Brasil.
authors.forename: Gilberto Paulo Pereira
authors.initials: GP
authors.lastname: Franco
authors.affiliation: Acadêmica de Medicina, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, IUNI, Cuiabá, MT, Brasil.
authors.forename: Carla Tyene
authors.initials: CT
authors.lastname: Nakata
authors.affiliation: Acadêmica de Medicina, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, IUNI, Cuiabá, MT, Brasil.
authors.forename: Gabriele Laura Galvão
authors.initials: GL
authors.lastname: Costa
authors.affiliation: Acadêmica de Medicina, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, IUNI, Cuiabá, MT, Brasil.
authors.forename: Giovanna Laura Galvão
authors.initials: GL
authors.lastname: Costa
authors.affiliation: Acadêmica de Medicina, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, IUNI, Cuiabá, MT, Brasil.
authors.forename: Maíra Sant'Anna
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Genaro
authors.affiliation: Acadêmica de Medicina, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, IUNI, Cuiabá, MT, Brasil.
authors.forename: Gisele
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Agostini
authors.affiliation: Acadêmica de Medicina, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, IUNI, Cuiabá, MT, Brasil.
authors.forename: Jamila Luciana da
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Luz
authors.affiliation: Acadêmica de Medicina, Faculdade de Ciências Médicas, IUNI, Cuiabá, MT, Brasil.
authors.forename: Marieli Fernanda Martins
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: Leite