title: Using indirect comparisons to compare interventions within a Cochrane review: a tool for comparative effectiveness research.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Assessing relative performance among competing interventions is an important part of comparative effectiveness research. Bayesian indirect comparisons add information to existing Cochrane reviews, such as which intervention is likely to perform best. However, heterogeneity variance priors may influence results and, potentially, clinical guidance.
  
  
  METHODS
  We highlight the features of Bayesian indirect comparisons using a case study of a Cochrane review update in asthma care. The probability that one self-management educational intervention outperforms others is estimated. Simulation studies investigate the effect of heterogeneity variance prior distributions.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Results suggest a 55% probability that individual education is best, followed by combination (39%) and group (6%). The intervention with few trials was sensitive to prior distributions.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Bayesian indirect comparisons updates of Cochrane reviews are valuable comparative effectiveness research tools.
authors.affiliation: Pharmaceutical Outcomes Research & Policy Program, University of Washington, Box 357630, Seattle, WA 98195-7630, USA.
authors.forename: Maria
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Agapova
authors.forename: Emily B
authors.initials: EB
authors.lastname: Devine
authors.forename: Hiep
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Nguyen
authors.forename: Fredric M
authors.initials: FM
authors.lastname: Wolf
authors.forename: Lurdes Y T
authors.initials: LY
authors.lastname: Inoue
mesh_terms: D001249:Asthma / Q000628:therapy*; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D057186:Comparative Effectiveness Research; D006801:Humans; D015201:Meta-Analysis as Topic; D010353:Patient Education as Topic; D012196:Review Literature as Topic; D012648:Self Care
keywords: Bayesian statistics; Cochrane review; comparative effectiveness research; heterogeneity variance priors; meta-analysis; random effects variance