title: Demographic model of the Swiss cattle population for the years 2009-2011 stratified by gender, age and production type.
abstract: Demographic composition and dynamics of animal and human populations are important determinants for the transmission dynamics of infectious disease and for the effect of infectious disease or environmental disasters on productivity. In many circumstances, demographic data are not available or of poor quality. Since 1999 Switzerland has been recording cattle movements, births, deaths and slaughter in an animal movement database (AMD). The data present in the AMD offers the opportunity for analysing and understanding the dynamic of the Swiss cattle population. A dynamic population model can serve as a building block for future disease transmission models and help policy makers in developing strategies regarding animal health, animal welfare, livestock management and productivity. The Swiss cattle population was therefore modelled using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was stratified by production type (dairy or beef), age and gender (male and female calves: 0-1 year, heifers and young bulls: 1-2 years, cows and bulls: older than 2 years). The simulation of the Swiss cattle population reflects the observed pattern accurately. Parameters were optimized on the basis of the goodness-of-fit (using the Powell algorithm). The fitted rates were compared with calculated rates from the AMD and differed only marginally. This gives confidence in the fitted rates of parameters that are not directly deductible from the AMD (e.g. the proportion of calves that are moved from the dairy system to fattening plants).
authors.affiliation: Veterinary Public Health Institute/University of Berne, Berne, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Sara
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Schärrer
authors.affiliation: Veterinary Public Health Institute/University of Berne, Berne, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Patrick
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Presi
authors.affiliation: Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute/University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Jan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Hattendorf
authors.affiliation: Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute/University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America.
authors.forename: Nakul
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Chitnis
authors.affiliation: Federal Food Safety and Veterinary Office, Bern, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Reist
authors.affiliation: Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute/University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland.
authors.forename: Jakob
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Zinsstag
mesh_terms: D000822:Animal Husbandry / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D000818:Animals; D002417:Cattle; D002418:Cattle Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D003612:Dairying / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D003710:Demography; D005260:Female; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D013557:Switzerland