title: Improving pandemic influenza risk assessment.
abstract: Assessing the pandemic risk posed by specific non-human influenza A viruses is an important goal in public health research. As influenza virus genome sequencing becomes cheaper, faster, and more readily available, the ability to predict pandemic potential from sequence data could transform pandemic influenza risk assessment capabilities. However, the complexities of the relationships between virus genotype and phenotype make such predictions extremely difficult. The integration of experimental work, computational tool development, and analysis of evolutionary pathways, together with refinements to influenza surveillance, has the potential to transform our ability to assess the risks posed to humans by non-human influenza viruses and lead to improved pandemic preparedness and response.
authors.affiliation: Colin A Russell Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Colin A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Russell
authors.affiliation: Peter M Kasson Department of Biomedical Engineering, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, United States.
authors.forename: Peter M
authors.initials: PM
authors.lastname: Kasson
authors.affiliation: Ruben O Donis Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States.
authors.forename: Ruben O
authors.initials: RO
authors.lastname: Donis
authors.affiliation: Steven Riley Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States.
authors.forename: Steven
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Riley
authors.affiliation: John Dunbar Bioscience Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States.
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Dunbar
authors.affiliation: Andrew Rambaut Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States; Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Andrew
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Rambaut
authors.affiliation: Jason Asher Leidos contract support to the Division of Analytic Decision Support, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, United States.
authors.forename: Jason
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Asher
authors.affiliation: Stephen Burke Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States.
authors.forename: Stephen
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Burke
authors.affiliation: C Todd Davis Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States.
authors.forename: C Todd
authors.initials: CT
authors.lastname: Davis
authors.affiliation: Rebecca J Garten Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States.
authors.forename: Rebecca J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Garten
authors.affiliation: Sandrasegaram Gnanakaran Bioscience Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States.
authors.forename: Sandrasegaram
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Gnanakaran
authors.affiliation: Simon I Hay Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Simon I
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0611-7272
authors.initials: SI
authors.lastname: Hay
authors.affiliation: Sander Herfst Department of Viroscience, Postgraduate School of Molecular Medicine, Erasmus Medical Center, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
authors.forename: Sander
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Herfst
authors.affiliation: Nicola S Lewis Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Nicola S
authors.initials: NS
authors.lastname: Lewis
authors.affiliation: James O Lloyd-Smith Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States.
authors.forename: James O
authors.initials: JO
authors.lastname: Lloyd-Smith
authors.affiliation: Catherine A Macken Bioscience Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, United States.
authors.forename: Catherine A
authors.initials: CA
authors.lastname: Macken
authors.affiliation: Sebastian Maurer-Stroh Bioinformatics Institute, Agency for Science Technology and Research, Singapore, Singapore; National Public Health Laboratory, Communicable Diseases Division, Ministry of Health, Singapore, Singapore; School of Biological Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore.
authors.forename: Sebastian
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Maurer-Stroh
authors.affiliation: Elizabeth Neuhaus Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States.
authors.forename: Elizabeth
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Neuhaus
authors.affiliation: Colin R Parrish James A Baker Institute, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, United States.
authors.forename: Colin R
authors.initials: CR
authors.lastname: Parrish
authors.affiliation: Kim M Pepin Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States; National Wildlife Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, United States.
authors.forename: Kim M
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Pepin
authors.affiliation: Samuel S Shepard Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States.
authors.forename: Samuel S
authors.initials: SS
authors.lastname: Shepard
authors.affiliation: David L Smith Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States; Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Sanaria Institute for Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Rockville, United States.
authors.forename: David L
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-4367-3849
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: Smith
authors.affiliation: David L Suarez Exotic and Emerging Avian Viral Diseases Research Unit, Southeast Poultry Research Laboratories, United States Department of Agriculture, Athens, United States.
authors.forename: David L
authors.initials: DL
authors.lastname: Suarez
authors.affiliation: Susan C Trock Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States.
authors.forename: Susan C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Trock
authors.affiliation: Marc-Alain Widdowson Influenza Division, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, United States.
authors.forename: Marc-Alain
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Widdowson
authors.affiliation: Dylan B George Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, United States; Division of Analytic Decision Support, Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response, Department of Health and Human Services, Washington, DC, United States.
authors.forename: Dylan B
authors.initials: DB
authors.lastname: George
authors.affiliation: Marc Lipsitch Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, United States; Department of Immunology and Infectious Diseases, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, United States.
authors.forename: Marc
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1504-9213
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Lipsitch
authors.affiliation: Jesse D Bloom Division of Basic Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, Seattle, United States.
authors.forename: Jesse D
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1267-3408
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Bloom
mesh_terms: D001483:Base Sequence; D005075:Biological Evolution; D062665:Epidemiological Monitoring; D005843:Geography; D006801:Humans; D009980:Influenza A virus / Q000235:genetics; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D008954:Models, Biological; D058873:Pandemics / Q000517:prevention & control*; D011634:Public Health; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods*
keywords: emergence; evolutionary biology; genomics; human; infectious disease; influenza; microbiology; pandemic; viruses