title: Model for disease dynamics of a waterborne pathogen on a random network.
abstract: A network epidemic SIWR model for cholera and other diseases that can be transmitted via the environment is developed and analyzed. The person-to-person contacts are modeled by a random contact network, and the contagious environment is modeled by an external node that connects to every individual. The model is adapted from the Miller network SIR model, and in the homogeneous mixing limit becomes the Tien and Earn deterministic cholera model without births and deaths. The dynamics of our model shows excellent agreement with stochastic simulations. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is computed, and on a Poisson network shown to be the sum of the basic reproduction numbers of the person-to-person and person-to-water-to-person transmission pathways. However, on other networks, [Formula: see text] depends nonlinearly on the transmission along the two pathways. Type reproduction numbers are computed and quantify measures to control the disease. Equations giving the final epidemic size are obtained.
authors.affiliation: School of Science, Donghua University, Shanghai, 201620, China, stylml@dhu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Meili
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Li
authors.forename: Junling
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Ma
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: van den Driessche
mesh_terms: D050936:Basic Reproduction Number; D002771:Cholera / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004197:Disease Reservoirs / Q000382:microbiology; D058872:Epidemics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D055641:Mathematical Concepts; D008954:Models, Biological; D016012:Poisson Distribution; D013269:Stochastic Processes; D014871:Water Microbiology