title: Spatial and temporal emergence pattern of Lyme disease in Virginia.
abstract: The emergence of infectious diseases over the past several decades has highlighted the need to better understand epidemics and prepare for the spread of diseases into new areas. As these diseases expand their geographic range, cases are recorded at different geographic locations over time, making the analysis and prediction of this expansion complicated. In this study, we analyze spatial patterns of the disease using a statistical smoothing analysis based on areal (census tract level) count data of Lyme disease cases in Virginia from 1998 to 2011. We also use space and space-time scan statistics to reveal the presence of clusters in the spatial and spatiotemporal distribution of Lyme disease. Our results confirm and quantify the continued emergence of Lyme disease to the south and west in states along the eastern coast of the United States. The results also highlight areas where education and surveillance needs are highest.
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Department of Geography, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Office of Epidemiology, Virginia Department of Health, Richmond, Virginia jieli@vt.edu.
authors.forename: Jie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Department of Geography, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Office of Epidemiology, Virginia Department of Health, Richmond, Virginia.
authors.forename: Korine N
authors.initials: KN
authors.lastname: Kolivras
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Department of Geography, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Office of Epidemiology, Virginia Department of Health, Richmond, Virginia.
authors.forename: Yili
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Hong
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Department of Geography, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Office of Epidemiology, Virginia Department of Health, Richmond, Virginia.
authors.forename: Yuanyuan
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Duan
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Department of Geography, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Office of Epidemiology, Virginia Department of Health, Richmond, Virginia.
authors.forename: Sara E
authors.initials: SE
authors.lastname: Seukep
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Department of Geography, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Office of Epidemiology, Virginia Department of Health, Richmond, Virginia.
authors.forename: Stephen P
authors.initials: SP
authors.lastname: Prisley
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Department of Geography, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Office of Epidemiology, Virginia Department of Health, Richmond, Virginia.
authors.forename: James B
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Campbell
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Department of Geography, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Department of Forest Resources and Environmental Conservation, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg, Virginia; Office of Epidemiology, Virginia Department of Health, Richmond, Virginia.
authors.forename: David N
authors.initials: DN
authors.lastname: Gaines
mesh_terms: D016000:Cluster Analysis; D006801:Humans; D008193:Lyme Disease / Q000453:epidemiology*; D014768:Virginia / Q000453:epidemiology