title: Predicted long-term cardiovascular risk among young adults in the national longitudinal study of adolescent health.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  We estimated the distribution of predicted long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among young adults in the United States.
  
  
  METHODS
  Our data were derived from National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health participants (n = 14 333; average age: 28.9 years). We used a Framingham-derived risk prediction function to calculate 30-year risks of "hard" and "general" CVD by gender and race/ethnicity.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Average 30-year risks for hard and general CVD were 10.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.1%, 10.7%) and 17.3% (95% CI = 17.0%, 17.7%) among men and 4.4% (95% CI = 4.3%, 4.6%) and 9.2% (95% CI = 8.9%, 9.5%) among women. Average age-adjusted risks of hard and general CVD were higher among Blacks and American Indians than among Whites and lower among Asian/Pacific Islander women than White women. American Indian men continued to have a higher risk of general CVD after adjustment for socioeconomic status. Four percent of women (95% CI = 3.6%, 5.0%) and 26.2% of men (95% CI = 24.7%, 27.8%) had a 20% or higher risk of general CVD. Racial differences were detected but were not significant after adjustment for socioeconomic status.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Average CVD risk among young adults is high. Population-based prevention strategies and improved detection and treatment of high-risk individuals are needed to reduce the future burden of CVD.
authors.affiliation: Cari Jo Clark is with the Department of Medicine and the Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, Program in Health Disparities Research, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis. Alvaro Alonso is with the Division of Epidemiology and Community Health, School of Public Health, University of Minnesota. Rachael A. Spencer is an independent researcher in Atlanta, GA. Michael Pencina is with the Clinical Research Unit and the Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, NC. Ken Williams is with KenAnCo Biostatistics, San Antonio, TX. Susan A. Everson-Rose is with the Department of Medicine and the Program in Health Disparities Research, University of Minnesota.
authors.forename: Cari Jo
authors.initials: CJ
authors.lastname: Clark
authors.forename: Alvaro
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Alonso
authors.forename: Rachael A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Spencer
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Pencina
authors.forename: Ken
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Williams
authors.forename: Susan A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Everson-Rose
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D015992:Body Mass Index; D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000208:ethnology; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D012307:Risk Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology