title: A description of HIV prevalence trends in Nigeria from 2001 to 2010: what is the progress, where is the problem?
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Nigeria's population of 160 million and estimated HIV prevalence of 3.34% (2011) makes Nigeria the second highest HIV burden worldwide, with 3.2 million people living with HIV (PLHIV). In 2010, US government spent about US$456.5 million on the Nigerian epidemic. Antenatal clinic (ANC) HIV sero-prevalence sentinel survey has been conducted biennially in Nigeria since 1991 to track the epidemic. This study looked at the trends of HIV in Nigeria over the last decade to identify progress and needs.
  
  
  METHODS
  We conducted description of HIV sero-prevalence sentinel cross-sectional surveys conducted among pregnant women attending ANC from 2001 to 2010, which uses consecutive sampling and unlinked-anonymous HIV testing (UAT) in 160 sentinel facilities. 36,000 blood samples were collected and tested. We used Epi-Info to determine national and state HIV prevalence and trends. The Estimation and Projection Package with Spectrum were used to estimate/project the burden of infection.
  
  
  RESULTS
  National ANC HIV prevalence rose from 1.8% (1991) to 5.8% (2001) and dropped to 4.1% (2010). Since 2001, states in the center, and south of Nigeria had higher prevalence than the rest, with Benue and Cross Rivers notable. Benue was highest in 2001 (14%), 2005 (10%), and 2010 (12.7%). Overall, eight states (21.6%) showed increased HIV prevalence while six states (16.2%) had an absolute reduction of at least 2% from 2001 to 2010. In 2010, Nigeria was estimated to have 3.19 million PLHIV, with the general population prevalence projected to drop from 3.34% in 2011 to 3.27% in 2012.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Examining a decade of HIV ANC surveillance in Nigeria revealed important differences in the epidemic in states that need to be examined further to reveal key drivers that can be used to target future interventions.
authors.affiliation: Nigeria Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Program (N-FELTP), Abuja, Nigeria ; HIV/AIDS Division, Department of Public Health, Federal Ministry of Health, Nigeria.
authors.forename: Adebobola
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Bashorun
authors.affiliation: Nigeria Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Program (N-FELTP), Abuja, Nigeria.
authors.forename: Patrick
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Nguku
authors.affiliation: HIV/AIDS Division, Department of Public Health, Federal Ministry of Health, Nigeria.
authors.forename: Issa
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Kawu
authors.affiliation: HIV/AIDS Division, Department of Public Health, Federal Ministry of Health, Nigeria.
authors.forename: Evelyn
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Ngige
authors.affiliation: World Health Organization, Nigeria Office.
authors.forename: Adeniyi
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ogundiran
authors.affiliation: Nigeria Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Program (N-FELTP), Abuja, Nigeria ; Department of Community Medicine, Ahmadu Bello University Zaria, Nigeria.
authors.forename: Kabir
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Sabitu
authors.affiliation: Nigeria Center for Disease Control and Prevention (NCDC), Abuja, Nigeria.
authors.forename: Abdulsalam
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Nasidi
authors.affiliation: Global Public Health Solutions, Decatur, GA, USA.
authors.forename: Peter
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Nsubuga
mesh_terms: D000554:Ambulatory Care Facilities / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D058872:Epidemics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D005260:Female; D062305:Geographic Mapping; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015528:HIV Seroprevalence / Q000639:trends*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008427:Maternal Health Services / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D009549:Nigeria / Q000453:epidemiology; D011159:Population Surveillance; D011247:Pregnancy; D011251:Pregnancy Complications, Infectious / Q000453:epidemiology; D015995:Prevalence; D018401:Sample Size; D018571:Sentinel Surveillance
keywords: HIV; Nigeria; Pregnant; Sentinel; antenatal; clinic; estimates; prevalence; projection; testing