title: Assessing recovery from acidification of European surface waters in the year 2010: evaluation of projections made with the MAGIC model in 1995.
abstract: In 1999 we used the MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments) model to project acidification of acid-sensitive European surface waters in the year 2010, given implementation of the Gothenburg Protocol to the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP). A total of 202 sites in 10 regions in Europe were studied. These forecasts can now be compared with measurements for the year 2010, to give a "ground truth" evaluation of the model. The prerequisite for this test is that the actual sulfur and nitrogen deposition decreased from 1995 to 2010 by the same amount as that used to drive the model forecasts; this was largely the case for sulfur, but less so for nitrogen, and the simulated surface water [NO3(-)] reflected this difference. For most of the sites, predicted surface water recovery from acidification for the year 2010 is very close to the actual recovery observed from measured data, as recovery is predominantly driven by reductions in sulfur deposition. Overall these results show that MAGIC successfully predicts future water chemistry given known changes in acid deposition.
authors.affiliation: The James Hutton Institute , Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, U.K.
authors.forename: Rachel C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Helliwell
authors.forename: Richard F
authors.initials: RF
authors.lastname: Wright
authors.forename: Leah A
authors.initials: LA
authors.lastname: Jackson-Blake
authors.forename: Robert C
authors.initials: RC
authors.lastname: Ferrier
authors.forename: Julian
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Aherne
authors.forename: Bernard J
authors.initials: BJ
authors.lastname: Cosby
authors.forename: Christopher D
authors.initials: CD
authors.lastname: Evans
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Forsius
authors.forename: Jakub
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Hruska
authors.forename: Alan
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Jenkins
authors.forename: Pavel
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Kram
authors.forename: Jiri
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kopáček
authors.forename: Vladimir
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Majer
authors.forename: Filip
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Moldan
authors.forename: Maximilian
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Posch
authors.forename: Jacqueline M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Potts
authors.forename: Michela
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Rogora
authors.forename: Wolfgang
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Schöpp
mesh_terms: D000143:Acids / Q000737:chemistry*; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods; D005060:Europe; D005544:Forecasting; D005843:Geography; D060587:Groundwater / Q000737:chemistry*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical / Q000032:analysis*
chemical_list: D000143:Acids; D014874:Water Pollutants, Chemical