title: Predictiveness of disease risk in a global outreach tourist setting in Thailand using meteorological data and vector-borne disease incidences.
abstract: Dengue and malaria are vector-borne diseases and major public health problems worldwide. Changes in climatic factors influence incidences of these diseases. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between vector-borne disease incidences and meteorological data, and hence to predict disease risk in a global outreach tourist setting. The retrospective data of dengue and malaria incidences together with local meteorological factors (temperature, rainfall, humidity) registered from 2001 to 2011 on Koh Chang, Thailand were used in this study. Seasonal distribution of disease incidences and its correlation with local climatic factors were analyzed. Seasonal patterns in disease transmission differed between dengue and malaria. Monthly meteorological data and reported disease incidences showed good predictive ability of disease transmission patterns. These findings provide a rational basis for identifying the predictive ability of local meteorological factors on disease incidence that may be useful for the implementation of disease prevention and vector control programs on the tourism island, where climatic factors fluctuate.
authors.affiliation: Center of Excellence for Vectors and Vector-Borne Diseases, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University at Salaya, Nakhon Pathom 73170, Thailand. ninphanomchai@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Suwannapa
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Ninphanomchai
authors.affiliation: Department of Medical Sciences, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand. chittichan@hotmail.com.
authors.forename: Chitti
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Chansang
authors.affiliation: Umeå Centre for Global Health Research, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå 90187 , Sweden. yienling.hii@epiph.umu.se.
authors.forename: Yien Ling
authors.initials: YL
authors.lastname: Hii
authors.affiliation: Umeå Centre for Global Health Research, Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, Umeå 90187 , Sweden. joacim.rocklov@epiph.umu.se.
authors.forename: Joacim
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Rocklöv
authors.affiliation: Center of Excellence for Vectors and Vector-Borne Diseases, Faculty of Science, Mahidol University at Salaya, Nakhon Pathom 73170, Thailand. pkittayapong@msn.com.
authors.forename: Pattamaporn
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Kittayapong
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D002980:Climate; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D006801:Humans; D006813:Humidity; D015994:Incidence; D007303:Insect Vectors; D008288:Malaria / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011891:Rain; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature; D013785:Thailand / Q000453:epidemiology