title: A cardiovascular disease policy model that predicts life expectancy taking into account socioeconomic deprivation.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  A policy model is a model that can evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions and inform policy decisions. In this study, we introduce a cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model which can be used to model remaining life expectancy including a measure of socioeconomic deprivation as an independent risk factor for CVD.
  
  
  METHODS
  A state transition model was developed using the Scottish Heart Health Extended Cohort (SHHEC) linked to Scottish morbidity and death records. Individuals start in a CVD-free state and can transit to three CVD event states plus a non-CVD death state. Individuals who have a non-fatal first event are then followed up until death. Taking a competing risk approach, the cause-specific hazards of a first event are modelled using parametric survival analysis. Survival following a first non-fatal event is also modelled parametrically. We assessed discrimination, validation and calibration of our model.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Our model achieved a good level of discrimination in each component (c-statistics for men (women)-non-fatal coronary heart disease (CHD): 0.70 (0.74), non-fatal cerebrovascular disease (CBVD): 0.73 (0.76), fatal CVD: 0.77 (0.80), fatal non-CVD: 0.74 (0.72), survival after non-fatal CHD: 0.68 (0.67) and survival after non-fatal CBVD: 0.65 (0.66)). In general, our model predictions were comparable with observed event rates for a Scottish randomised statin trial population which has an overlapping follow-up period with SHHEC. After applying a calibration factor, our predictions of life expectancy closely match those published in recent national life tables.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our model can be used to estimate the impact of primary prevention interventions on life expectancy and can assess the impact of interventions on inequalities.
authors.affiliation: Health Economics and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
authors.forename: J D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Lewsey
authors.affiliation: Health Economics and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
authors.forename: K D
authors.initials: KD
authors.lastname: Lawson
authors.affiliation: Robertson Centre for Biostatistics, Institute of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
authors.forename: I
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Ford
authors.affiliation: BHF Centre for Research Excellence, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.
authors.forename: K A A
authors.initials: KA
authors.lastname: Fox
authors.affiliation: Centre of Academic Primary Care, University of Aberdeen, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK.
authors.forename: L D
authors.initials: LD
authors.lastname: Ritchie
authors.affiliation: Institute of Cardiovascular Research, University of Dundee, Ninewells Hospital, Dundee, UK.
authors.forename: H
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Tunstall-Pedoe
authors.affiliation: General Practice & Primary Care, Institute of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
authors.forename: G C M
authors.initials: GC
authors.lastname: Watt
authors.affiliation: The George Institute for Global Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Woodward
authors.affiliation: Health Economics and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kent
authors.affiliation: Health Economics and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Neilson
authors.affiliation: Health Economics and Health Technology Assessment, Institute of Health & Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.
authors.forename: A H
authors.initials: AH
authors.lastname: Briggs
mesh_terms: D002318:Cardiovascular Diseases / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008017:Life Expectancy; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D008955:Models, Cardiovascular; D009017:Morbidity / Q000639:trends; D011322:Primary Prevention / Q000592:standards*; D012307:Risk Factors; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors; D015996:Survival Rate / Q000639:trends; D006113:United Kingdom / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: CORONARY ARTERY DISEASE; QUALITY OF CARE AND OUTCOMES