title: Modeling the evolution of riparian woodlands facing climate change in three European rivers with contrasting flow regimes.
abstract: Global circulation models forecasts indicate a future temperature and rainfall pattern modification worldwide. Such phenomena will become particularly evident in Europe where climate modifications could be more severe than the average change at the global level. As such, river flow regimes are expected to change, with resultant impacts on aquatic and riparian ecosystems. Riparian woodlands are among the most endangered ecosystems on earth and provide vital services to interconnected ecosystems and human societies. However, they have not been the object of many studies designed to spatially and temporally quantify how these ecosystems will react to climate change-induced flow regimes. Our goal was to assess the effects of climate-changed flow regimes on the existing riparian vegetation of three different European flow regimes. Cases studies were selected in the light of the most common watershed alimentation modes occurring across European regions, with the objective of appraising expected alterations in the riparian elements of fluvial systems due to climate change. Riparian vegetation modeling was performed using the CASiMiR-vegetation model, which bases its computation on the fluvial disturbance of the riparian patch mosaic. Modeling results show that riparian woodlands may undergo not only at least moderate changes for all flow regimes, but also some dramatic adjustments in specific areas of particular vegetation development stages. There are circumstances in which complete annihilation is feasible. Pluvial flow regimes, like the ones in southern European rivers, are those likely to experience more pronounced changes. Furthermore, regardless of the flow regime, younger and more water-dependent individuals are expected to be the most affected by climate change.
authors.affiliation: Forest Research Center, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal.
authors.forename: Rui P
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Rivaes
authors.affiliation: Forest Research Center, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal.
authors.forename: Patricia M
authors.initials: PM
authors.lastname: Rodríguez-González
authors.affiliation: Forest Research Center, Instituto Superior de Agronomia, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal.
authors.forename: Maria Teresa
authors.initials: MT
authors.lastname: Ferreira
authors.affiliation: CEHIDRO, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal.
authors.forename: António N
authors.initials: AN
authors.lastname: Pinheiro
authors.affiliation: Environmental Consulting Klagenfurt, Klagenfurt, Austria.
authors.forename: Emilio
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Politti
authors.affiliation: Environmental Consulting Klagenfurt, Klagenfurt, Austria.
authors.forename: Gregory
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Egger
authors.affiliation: Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering, Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, Spain.
authors.forename: Alicia
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: García-Arias
authors.affiliation: Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering, Universitat Politècnica de València, Valencia, Spain.
authors.forename: Felix
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Francés
mesh_terms: D057231:Climate Change; D017753:Ecosystem; D005060:Europe; D065928:Forests; D062070:Hydrology; D015233:Models, Statistical; D045483:Rivers; D062211:Spatio-Temporal Analysis