title: Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas.
abstract: The most important energy development of the past decade has been the wide deployment of hydraulic fracturing technologies that enable the production of previously uneconomic shale gas resources in North America. If these advanced gas production technologies were to be deployed globally, the energy market could see a large influx of economically competitive unconventional gas resources. The climate implications of such abundant natural gas have been hotly debated. Some researchers have observed that abundant natural gas substituting for coal could reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Others have reported that the non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions associated with shale gas production make its lifecycle emissions higher than those of coal. Assessment of the full impact of abundant gas on climate change requires an integrated approach to the global energy-economy-climate systems, but the literature has been limited in either its geographic scope or its coverage of greenhouse gases. Here we show that market-driven increases in global supplies of unconventional natural gas do not discernibly reduce the trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions or climate forcing. Our results, based on simulations from five state-of-the-art integrated assessment models of energy-economy-climate systems independently forced by an abundant gas scenario, project large additional natural gas consumption of up to +170 per cent by 2050. The impact on CO2 emissions, however, is found to be much smaller (from -2 per cent to +11 per cent), and a majority of the models reported a small increase in climate forcing (from -0.3 per cent to +7 per cent) associated with the increased use of abundant gas. Our results show that although market penetration of globally abundant gas may substantially change the future energy system, it is not necessarily an effective substitute for climate change mitigation policy.
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, JGCRI, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA.
authors.forename: Haewon
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: McJeon
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, JGCRI, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA.
authors.forename: Jae
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Edmonds
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: Nico
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Bauer
authors.affiliation: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, JGCRI, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA.
authors.forename: Leon
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Clarke
authors.affiliation: BAEconomics, PO Box 5447, Kingston, Australian Capital Territory 2604, Australia.
authors.forename: Brian
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Fisher
authors.affiliation: Resources for the Future, 1616 P Street Northwest, Washington, DC 20036, USA.
authors.forename: Brian P
authors.initials: BP
authors.lastname: Flannery
authors.affiliation: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, PO Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany.
authors.forename: Jérôme
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Hilaire
authors.affiliation: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
authors.forename: Volker
authors.initials: V
authors.lastname: Krey
authors.affiliation: Centro Euromediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici and Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4b, 20156 Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: Giacomo
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Marangoni
authors.affiliation: BAEconomics, PO Box 5447, Kingston, Australian Capital Territory 2604, Australia.
authors.forename: Raymond
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Mi
authors.affiliation: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
authors.forename: Keywan
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Riahi
authors.affiliation: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
authors.forename: Holger
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Rogner
authors.affiliation: Centro Euromediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici and Politecnico di Milano, Via Lambruschini 4b, 20156 Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: Massimo
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Tavoni
mesh_terms: D002245:Carbon Dioxide / Q000032:analysis; D057231:Climate Change / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D058735:Environmental Policy; D017752:Greenhouse Effect / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D059206:Natural Gas / Q000191:economics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000600:supply & distribution; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D059206:Natural Gas; D002245:Carbon Dioxide