title: A structured review of long-term care demand modelling.
abstract: Long-term care (LTC) represents a significant and substantial proportion of healthcare spends across the globe. Its main aim is to assist individuals suffering with more or more chronic illnesses, disabilities or cognitive impairments, to carry out activities associated with daily living. Shifts in several economic, demographic and social factors have raised concerns surrounding the sustainability of current systems of LTC. Substantial effort has been put into modelling the LTC demand process itself so as to increase understanding of the factors driving demand for LTC and its related services. Furthermore, such modeling efforts have also been used to plan the operation and future composition of the LTC system itself. The main aim of this paper is to provide a structured review of the literature surrounding LTC demand modeling and any such industrial application, whilst highlighting any potential direction for future researchers.
authors.affiliation: University of Westminster, 101 New Cavendish Street, N7100, London, W1W 6UW, UK, P.Worrall1@westminster.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Philip
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Worrall
authors.forename: Thierry J
authors.initials: TJ
authors.lastname: Chaussalet
mesh_terms: D002908:Chronic Disease; D003198:Computer Simulation; D005544:Forecasting; D018166:Health Care Reform; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand; D006801:Humans; D008134:Long-Term Care / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D017146:Models, Organizational; D015233:Models, Statistical; D016134:Organizational Policy; D011787:Quality of Health Care