title: Identification of factors influencing the Puumala virus seroprevalence within its reservoir in aMontane Forest Environment.
abstract: Puumala virus (PUUV) is a major cause of mild to moderate haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome and is transmitted by the bank vole (Myodes glareolus). There has been a high cumulative incidence of recorded human cases in South-eastern Germany since 2004 when the region was first recognized as being endemic for PUUV. As the area is well known for outdoor recreation and the Bavarian Forest National Park (BFNP) is located in the region, the increasing numbers of recorded cases are of concern. To understand the population and environmental effects on the seroprevalence of PUUV in bank voles we trapped small mammals at 23 sites along an elevation gradient from 317 to 1420m above sea level. Generalized linear mixed effects models(GLMEM) were used to explore associations between the seroprevalence of PUUV in bank voles and climate and biotic factors. We found that the seroprevalence of PUUV was low (6%-7%) in 2008 and 2009, and reached 29% in 2010. PUUV seroprevalence was positively associated with the local species diversity and deadwood layer, and negatively associated with mean annual temperature, mean annual solar radiation, and herb layer. Based on these findings, an illustrative risk map for PUUV seroprevalence prediction in bank voles was created for an area of the national park. The map will help when planning infrastructure in the national park (e.g., huts, shelters, and trails).
authors.affiliation: Bundeswehr Institute of Microbiology, Neuherbergstr. 11, 80937 Munich, Germany. bryanthoma@bundeswehr.org.
authors.forename: Bryan R
authors.initials: BR
authors.lastname: Thoma
authors.affiliation: Bavarian Forest National Park, Freyunger Str. 2, 94481 Grafenau, Germany. joerg.mueller@npv-bw.bayern.de.
authors.forename: Jörg
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Müller
authors.affiliation: Bavarian Forest National Park, Freyunger Str. 2, 94481 Grafenau, Germany. claus.baessler@npv-bw.bayern.de.
authors.forename: Claus
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Bässler
authors.affiliation: Bundeswehr Institute of Microbiology, Neuherbergstr. 11, 80937 Munich, Germany. enrico1georgi@bundeswehr.org.
authors.forename: Enrico
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Georgi
authors.affiliation: Bundeswehr Institute of Microbiology, Neuherbergstr. 11, 80937 Munich, Germany. anja.osterberg@web.de.
authors.forename: Anja
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Osterberg
authors.affiliation: Bundeswehr Institute of Microbiology, Neuherbergstr. 11, 80937 Munich, Germany. susanneschex@yahoo.com.au.
authors.forename: Susanne
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Schex
authors.affiliation: MRC Tropical Epidemiology Group, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel St, London WC1E 7HT, UK. christian.bottomley@lshtm.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Christian
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Bottomley
authors.affiliation: Bundeswehr Institute of Microbiology, Neuherbergstr. 11, 80937 Munich, Germany. sandraessbauer@bundeswehr.org.
authors.forename: Sandra S
authors.initials: SS
authors.lastname: Essbauer
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D000914:Antibodies, Viral / Q000097:blood; D003411:Arvicolinae / Q000821:virology*; D002980:Climate; D004197:Disease Reservoirs / Q000821:virology; D004777:Environment; D065928:Forests; D005843:Geography; D005858:Germany / Q000453:epidemiology; D006480:Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D011156:Population Density; D029262:Puumala virus / Q000276:immunology*; D012376:Rodent Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000821:virology; D016036:Seroepidemiologic Studies; D013472:Sunlight
chemical_list: D000914:Antibodies, Viral