title: Labor productivity losses over western Turkey in the twenty-first century as a result of alteration in WBGT.
abstract: Occupational fatalities and work-related injuries are more common in Turkey than in most developing and developed countries. Several precautions have been taken concerning the matter, and The Occupational Health and Safety Act (OHSL 2012) has been passed. These efforts, however, have failed to incorporate in their framework the role of global warming. New legislation is underway for the prevention of occupational diseases, injuries, and fatalities. This is particularly worrisome given that Turkey is in the forefront of countries projected to be affected seriously by climate change. Consequently, a study on the direct and indirect impact of climate change on workers' health and labour productivity is paramount. The main purpose of this research is to present diminishing labour productivity as a consequence of decreased working hours via an estimate of rest hours of workers in manual labour. The climatic outputs of Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) obtained from the ENSEMBLES Project are used to calculate the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) over western Turkey. The study covers the span of years between 1971 and 2100. Moreover, spatial distributions of observed domain are estimated by means of a seasonal analysis, preliminary to a more detailed research. Critical regions, more adversely influenced than others, are identified. The total number of loss days for these critical regions are presented for various time periods. As a result, labour productivity particularly in agriculture and construction is expected to diminish seriously over Central Anatolia, Cyprus, and parts of the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean coastal areas. Between 2071 and 2100, deficiency in labour productivity may reach up to 52% during the summer across some of these critical regions. Though it will be seen that the present study has focused primarily on manual labour and outdoor work in particular, it foreshadows nevertheless the dangerous impact of climate change on occupational health and labour productivity in general.
authors.affiliation: Boğaziçi University, 34342, Bebek, Istanbul, Turkey, hamza.altinsoy@csgb.edu.tr.
authors.forename: Hamza
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Altinsoy
authors.forename: Haci Ahmet
authors.initials: HA
authors.lastname: Yildirim
mesh_terms: D003198:Computer Simulation; D004526:Efficiency; D017598:Efficiency, Organizational / Q000706:statistics & numerical data / Q000639:trends; D004651:Employment / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods*; D005260:Female; D057232:Global Warming / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006358:Hot Temperature; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D017146:Models, Organizational; D015233:Models, Statistical; D014421:Turkey / Q000453:epidemiology; D016526:Workload / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*