title: Relationships between estimation errors and falls in healthy aged dwellers.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Although fall predictions using motor ability have been well reported in elderly people, there are few reports on physical cognitive ability.
  
  
  OBJECTIVE
  To examine the relationship of the results of motor function tests that include physical cognitive ability on the ability to predict falls and to determine which test is the most appropriate.
  
  
  METHODS
  We studied 174 community-dwelling elderly adults (mean age 75.7 ± 5.7, 41 males and 133 females), and measured grip strength, one-leg standing time (OLS), timed up and go test (TUG), functional reach test, sit and reach test, and maximal step length (MSL). The estimation error (EE), which was defined as the difference between the predicted and actual values, was calculated in all motor ability tests. Other assessments included the number of falls in the previous year, BMI, frequency of going out, Mini-Mental State Examination score, and Falls Efficacy Scale. In the baseline study, we divided the subjects into a fall group (n = 33) and a nonfall group (n = 141) and compared motor ability and EE for the two groups. During a 1-year follow-up, the nonfall group (baseline study) was assessed for the same measurements by using the same methods.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In the baseline study, the fall group had significantly lower values of OLS and MSL. Furthermore, the fall group significantly overestimated their OLS, TUG, and MSL. In logistic regression analysis, EE of TUG (OR = 1.27) and EE of MSL (OR = 1.08) were detected as risk factors for falls. During follow-up, 11 subjects (7.8%) experienced falls. In logistic regression analysis, TUG (OR = 1.89) and EE of MSL (OR = 1.06) were detected as significant risk factors for falls. Since EE of MSL had higher values of both the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the sum of sensitivity and specificity than EE of TUG, the nonfall group was divided into two groups with a cutoff value of 2 cm for EE of MSL. A significant distribution disparity in falls between the two groups was found during follow-up and showed a relative risk of 18.78 for EE of MSL.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We suggest that EE of MSL is a potent predictor for falls among healthy elderly adults.
authors.affiliation: Department of Rehabilitation Physical Therapy, Fukui College of Health Sciences, Fukui, Japan.
authors.forename: Akira
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Fujimoto
authors.forename: Hideaki
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Hori
authors.forename: Taro
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Tamura
authors.forename: Takayoshi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Hirai
authors.forename: Tomohiro
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Umemura
authors.forename: Fumio
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Iguchi
authors.forename: Satomi
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sawa
authors.forename: Kouhei
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Ogawa
authors.forename: Kazuhiro
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Sato
authors.forename: Yukinori
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Kusaka
mesh_terms: D000058:Accidental Falls / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000375:Aging / Q000502:physiology / Q000523:psychology; D005080:Exercise Test / Q000379:methods; D005260:Female; D015577:Geriatric Assessment; D006801:Humans; D057187:Independent Living; D008297:Male; D009043:Motor Activity / Q000502:physiology*; D009048:Motor Skills / Q000502:physiology*; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D016016:Proportional Hazards Models; D011597:Psychomotor Performance; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods