title: Predictability of extreme events in social media.
abstract: It is part of our daily social-media experience that seemingly ordinary items (videos, news, publications, etc.) unexpectedly gain an enormous amount of attention. Here we investigate how unexpected these extreme events are. We propose a method that, given some information on the items, quantifies the predictability of events, i.e., the potential of identifying in advance the most successful items. Applying this method to different data, ranging from views in YouTube videos to posts in Usenet discussion groups, we invariantly find that the predictability increases for the most extreme events. This indicates that, despite the inherently stochastic collective dynamics of users, efficient prediction is possible for the most successful items.
authors.affiliation: Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden, Germany.
authors.forename: José M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Miotto
authors.affiliation: Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden, Germany.
authors.forename: Eduardo G
authors.initials: EG
authors.lastname: Altmann
mesh_terms: D001288:Attention; D006801:Humans; D020407:Internet; D010506:Periodicals as Topic; D061108:Social Media; D014741:Video Recording