title: Ten-year cumulative incidence of diabetic retinopathy. The Beijing Eye Study 2001/2011.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To assess the cumulative 10-year incidence of diabetic retinopathy (DR) and its associated factors in a population living in Greater Beijing.
  
  
  METHODS
  The population-based longitudinal Beijing Eye Study, which included 4439 subjects (age in 2001: 40+years) in 2001, was repeated in 2011 with 2695 subjects participating (66.4% of the survivors). The study participants underwent a detailed ophthalmic examination. Fundus photographs were examined for the new development of DR.
  
  
  RESULTS
  After excluding individuals with DR at baseline (n = 87) or no sufficient fundus photographs in 2011 (n = 6), the study included 2602 subjects with a mean age of 64.6±9.7 years (median: 64.0 years; range: 50 to 93 years). In the 10-year period, 109 subjects (39 men) developed new DR with an incidence of 4.2% (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.45,5.03). In multiple logistic regression analysis, incident DR was significantly associated with higher HbA1c value (P<0.001; Odds Ratio (OR): 1.73; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.35,2.21), longer duration of diabetes mellitus (P<0.001; OR: 1.16; 95% CI: 1.10,1.22), higher serum concentration of creatinine (P = 0.02; OR: 1.01; 95% CI: 1.002,1.022), lower educational level (P = 0.049; OR: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.55,0.99), higher estimated cerebrospinal fluid pressure (P = 0.038; OR: 1.10; 95% CI: 1.01,1.22), and shorter axial length (P<0.001; OR: 0.48; 95% CI: 0.33,0.71).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The cumulative 10-year incidence (mean: 4.2%) of DR in a North Chinese population was significantly associated with a higher HbA1c value, longer known duration of diabetes mellitus, higher estimated CSFP and shorter axial length (P<0.001). Shorter axial length (or hyperopia) and, potentially, higher CSFP may be additional risk factors to be taken into account when counseling and treating patients with diabetes mellitus.
authors.affiliation: Beijing Institute of Ophthalmology, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Jie
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: Beijing Institute of Ophthalmology, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Liang
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: Beijing Institute of Ophthalmology, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Ya Xing
authors.initials: YX
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.affiliation: Beijing Institute of Ophthalmology, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Qi Sheng
authors.initials: QS
authors.lastname: You
authors.affiliation: Beijing Institute of Ophthalmology, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China; Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty Mannheim of the Ruprecht-Karls-University, Heidelberg, Germany.
authors.forename: Jost B
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Jonas
authors.affiliation: Beijing Tongren Eye Center, Beijing Tongren Hospital, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
authors.forename: Wen Bin
authors.initials: WB
authors.lastname: Wei
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D015170:Cerebrospinal Fluid Pressure; D002681:China; D003930:Diabetic Retinopathy / Q000453:epidemiology*; D005260:Female; D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin / Q000378:metabolism; D006801:Humans; D006956:Hyperopia / Q000453:epidemiology; D015994:Incidence; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D012959:Socioeconomic Factors
chemical_list: D006442:Glycated Hemoglobin; C517652:hemoglobin A1c protein, human