title: Short- and long-term recidivism prediction of the PCL-R and the effects of age: a 24-year follow-up.
abstract: We prospectively examined the short- and long-term prediction of several recidivism outcomes as a function of psychopathy and age in a sample of 273 Canadian federal inmates with an average 24 years post-release follow-up. Offenders were rated using the original 22-item Hare Psychopathy Checklist (PCL: Hare, 1980) based on extensive archival file information, and the ratings were used to compute the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (Hare, 2003) and the 4 facet scores. PCL-R total scores and the Lifestyle and Antisocial facets, but not the Interpersonal and Affective facets, showed mostly small and some moderate predictive efficacy for general and nonviolent recidivism over 3-, 5-, 10-, and 20-year fixed follow-ups, and predicted violence recidivism at shorter follow-ups. Age at release was negatively correlated with all recidivism outcomes and follow-up periods for both high and low PCL-R rated offenders, and uniquely predicted all recidivism outcomes after controlling for the PCL-R using Cox regression survival analysis. Increased age was consistently linked to recidivism reduction even for psychopathic offenders. The results showed that both PCL-R scores and age contributed to the prediction of recidivism; however, the PCL-R facets made differential contributions that varied with the type of offense (violent vs. nonviolent) and follow-up time (shorter vs. longer). The results have implications for both risk assessment using the PCL-R and potentially for risk reduction interventions.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychology, University of Saskatchewan.
authors.forename: Mark E
authors.initials: ME
authors.lastname: Olver
authors.affiliation: Institute of Mental Health, University of Nottingham.
authors.forename: Stephen C P
authors.initials: SCP
authors.lastname: Wong
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000367:Age Factors; D000987:Antisocial Personality Disorder / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology; D057237:Criminals / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D011329:Prisoners / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D011379:Prognosis; D011569:Psychiatric Status Rating Scales / Q000592:standards* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D013997:Time Factors; D014754:Violence / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*