title: Observer aging and long-term avian survey data quality.
abstract: Long-term wildlife monitoring involves collecting time series data, often using the same observers over multiple years. Aging-related changes to these observers may be an important, under-recognized source of error that can bias management decisions. In this study, we used data from two large, independent bird surveys, the Atlas of the Breeding Birds of Ontario ("OBBA") and the North American Breeding Bird Survey ("BBS"), to test for age-related observer effects in long-term time series of avian presence and abundance. We then considered the effect of such aging phenomena on current population trend estimates. We found significantly fewer detections among older versus younger observers for 13 of 43 OBBA species, and declines in detection as an observer ages for 4 of 6 vocalization groups comprising 59 of 64 BBS species. Consistent with hearing loss influencing this pattern, we also found evidence for increasingly severe detection declines with increasing call frequency among nine high-pitched bird species (OBBA); however, there were also detection declines at other frequencies, suggesting important additional effects of aging, independent of hearing loss. We lastly found subtle, significant relationships between some species' published population trend estimates and (1) their corresponding vocalization frequency (n ≥ 22 species) and (2) their estimated declines in detectability among older observers (n = 9 high-frequency, monotone species), suggesting that observer aging can negatively bias long-term monitoring data for some species in part through hearing loss effects. We recommend that survey designers and modelers account for observer age where possible.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Dalhousie University 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, Nova Scotia, B3H 4R2, Canada.
authors.forename: Robert G
authors.initials: RG
authors.lastname: Farmer
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Dalhousie University 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, Nova Scotia, B3H 4R2, Canada.
authors.forename: Marty L
authors.initials: ML
authors.lastname: Leonard
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Dalhousie University 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, Nova Scotia, B3H 4R2, Canada.
authors.forename: Joanna E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Mills Flemming
authors.affiliation: Department of Biology, Dalhousie University 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, Nova Scotia, B3H 4R2, Canada ; Earth to Ocean Research Group, Department of Biological Sciences, Simon Fraser University Burnaby, British Columbia, V5A 1S6, Canada.
authors.forename: Sean C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Anderson
keywords: Avian ecology; citizen science; observer error; point counts; population trend estimation