title: Influence of fuels, weather and the built environment on the exposure of property to wildfire.
abstract: Wildfires can pose a significant risk to people and property. Billions of dollars are spent investing in fire management actions in an attempt to reduce the risk of loss. One of the key areas where money is spent is through fuel treatment--either fuel reduction (prescribed fire) or fuel removal (fuel breaks). Individual treatments can influence fire size and the maximum distance travelled from the ignition and presumably risk, but few studies have examined the landscape level effectiveness of these treatments. Here we use a Bayesian Network model to examine the relative influence of the built and natural environment, weather, fuel and fuel treatments in determining the risk posed from wildfire to the wildland-urban interface. Fire size and distance travelled was influenced most strongly by weather, with exposure to fires most sensitive to changes in the built environment and fire parameters. Natural environment variables and fuel load all had minor influences on fire size, distance travelled and exposure of assets. These results suggest that management of fuels provided minimal reductions in risk to assets and adequate planning of the changes in the built environment to cope with the expansion of human populations is going to be vital for managing risk from fire under future climates.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, Institute of Conservation Biology and Environmental Management, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
authors.forename: Trent D
authors.initials: TD
authors.lastname: Penman
authors.affiliation: Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, University of Western Sydney, Penrith, NSW, Australia.
authors.forename: Luke
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Collins
authors.affiliation: Conservation Biology Institute, La Mesa, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Alexandra D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Syphard
authors.affiliation: U.S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Sequoia-Kings Canyon Field Station, Three Rivers, California, United States of America; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, United States of America.
authors.forename: Jon E
authors.initials: JE
authors.lastname: Keeley
authors.affiliation: Centre for Environmental Risk Management of Bushfires, Institute of Conservation Biology and Environmental Management, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
authors.forename: Ross A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Bradstock
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D002140:California; D005390:Fires; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018570:Risk Assessment; D014887:Weather