title: Population viscosity suppresses disease emergence by preserving local herd immunity.
abstract: Animal reservoirs for infectious diseases pose ongoing risks to human populations. In this theory of zoonoses, the introduction event that starts an epidemic is assumed to be independent of all preceding events. However, introductions are often concentrated in communities that bridge the ecological interfaces between reservoirs and the general population. In this paper, we explore how the risks of disease emergence are altered by the aggregation of introduction events within bridge communities. In viscous bridge communities, repeated introductions can elevate the local prevalence of immunity. This local herd immunity can form a barrier reducing the opportunities for disease emergence. In some situations, reducing exposure rates counterintuitively increases the emergence hazards because of off-setting reductions in local immunity. Increases in population mixing can also increase emergence hazards, even when average contact rates are conserved. Our theory of bridge communities may help guide prevention and explain historical emergence events, where disruption of stable economic, political or demographic processes reduced population viscosity at ecological interfaces.
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA timothy@reluga.org.
authors.forename: Timothy C
authors.initials: TC
authors.lastname: Reluga
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, University of Tulsa, Tulsa, OK 74104, USA.
authors.forename: Eunha
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Shim
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D003141:Communicable Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000276:immunology* / Q000635:transmission; D003198:Computer Simulation; D004197:Disease Reservoirs; D058872:Epidemics / Q000517:prevention & control; D006801:Humans; D032521:Immunity, Herd; D018448:Models, Immunological; D011157:Population Dynamics; D015995:Prevalence; D018570:Risk Assessment
keywords: bridge community; emergence hazard; infectious disease; local herd immunity; parochial versus proselyte transmission; population viscosity