title: Prediction accuracy of a novel dynamic structure-function model for glaucoma progression.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To assess the prediction accuracy of a novel dynamic structure-function (DSF) model to monitor glaucoma progression.
  
  
  METHODS
  Longitudinal data of paired rim area (RA) and mean sensitivity (MS) from 220 eyes with ocular hypertension or primary open-angle glaucoma enrolled in the Diagnostic Innovations in Glaucoma Study or the African Descent and Glaucoma Evaluation Study were included. Rim area and MS were expressed as percent of mean normal based on an independent dataset of 91 healthy eyes. The DSF model uses centroids as estimates of the current state of the disease and velocity vectors as estimates of direction and rate of change over time. The first three visits were used to predict the fourth visit; the first four visits were used to predict the fifth visit, and so on up to the 11th visit. The prediction error (PE) was compared to that of ordinary least squares linear regression (OLSLR) using Wilcoxon signed-rank test.
  
  
  RESULTS
  For predictions at visit 4 to visit 7, the average PE for the DSF model was significantly lower than OLSLR by 1.19% to 3.42% of mean normal. No significant difference was observed for the predictions at visit 8 to visit 11. The DSF model had lower PE than OLSLR for 70% of eyes in predicting visit 4 and approximately 60% in predicting visits 5, 6, and 7.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The two models had similar prediction capabilities, and the DSF model performed better in shorter time series. The DSF model could be clinically useful when only limited follow-ups are available. (ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT00221923, NCT00221897.).
authors.affiliation: Department of Ophthalmology, First Affiliated Hospital, College of Medicine, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China Indiana University, Eugene and Marilyn Glick Eye Institute, Indianapolis, Indiana, United States.
authors.forename: Rongrong
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Hu
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Óptica, Facultad de Física, Universitat de València, Burjassot, Spain.
authors.forename: Iván
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Marín-Franch
authors.affiliation: Indiana University, Eugene and Marilyn Glick Eye Institute, Indianapolis, Indiana, United States.
authors.forename: Lyne
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Racette
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D016022:Case-Control Studies; D018450:Disease Progression; D005260:Female; D005902:Glaucoma, Open-Angle / Q000503:physiopathology*; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D009798:Ocular Hypertension / Q000503:physiopathology*; D009898:Optic Disk / Q000473:pathology; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D058609:Visual Field Tests; D014794:Visual Fields / Q000502:physiology
keywords: computational modeling; glaucoma progression; structure–function