Causal reasoning with mental models.
This paper outlines the model-based theory of causal reasoning. It postulates that the core meanings of causal assertions are deterministic and refer to temporally-ordered sets of possibilities: A causes B to occur means that given A, B occurs, whereas A enables B to occur means that given A, it is possible for B to occur. The paper shows how mental models represent such assertions, and how these models underlie deductive, inductive, and abductive reasoning yielding explanations. It reviews evidence both to corroborate the theory and to account for phenomena sometimes taken to be incompatible with it. Finally, it reviews neuroscience evidence indicating that mental models for causal inference are implemented within lateral prefrontal cortex.
Navy Center for Applied Research in Artificial Intelligence, Naval Research Laboratory Washington, DC, USA.
Sangeet S
SS
Khemlani
Beckman Institute for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Illinoi at Urbana-Champaign Urbana, IL, USA.
Aron K
AK
Barbey
Department of Psychology, Princeton University Princeton, NJ, USA ; Department of Psychology, New York University New York, NY, USA.
Philip N
PN
Johnson-Laird
causal reasoning; enabling conditions; explanations; lateral prefrontal cortex; mental models