When more data steer us wrong: replications with the wrong dependent measure perpetuate erroneous conclusions.
There is a replication crisis in science, to which psychological research has not been immune: Many effects have proven uncomfortably difficult to reproduce. Although the reliability of data is a serious concern, we argue that there is a deeper and more insidious problem in the field: the persistent and dramatic misinterpretation of empirical results that replicate easily and consistently. Using a series of four highly studied "textbook" examples from different research domains (eyewitness memory, deductive reasoning, social psychology, and child welfare), we show how simple unrecognized incompatibilities among dependent measures, analysis tools, and the properties of data can lead to fundamental interpretive errors. These errors, which are not reduced by additional data collection, may lead to misguided research efforts and policy recommendations. We conclude with a set of recommended strategies and research tools to reduce the probability of these persistent and largely unrecognized errors. The use of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves is highlighted as one such recommendation.
Department of Psychological and Brain Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, 135 Hicks Way, Amherst, MA, 01003-9271, USA, caren@psych.umass.edu.
Caren M
CM
Rotello
Evan
E
Heit
Chad
C
Dubé
D002648:Child; D002669:Child Welfare; D006801:Humans; D008128:Logic; D008568:Memory; D011582:Psychological Theory; D011593:Psychology, Social; D012372:ROC Curve; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D017603:Signal Detection, Psychological; D012938:Social Perception