title: Can family history and cord blood IgE predict sensitization and allergic diseases up to adulthood?
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Long-term studies of the predictive value of family history and cord blood IgE level until adulthood are few, and their conclusions have been contradictory.
  
  
  METHODS
  Screening of total IgE in 1617 cord blood samples was performed in a Danish birth cohort. All infants with cord blood IgE (CB-IgE) ≥ 0.5 kU/l and a corresponding randomly chosen group with CB-IgE <0.5 kU/l were chosen for follow-up. Questionnaire-based interviews, physical examination, specific IgE testing, and from 10 yr also spirometry, were carried out at 1½, 5, 10, 15, and 26 yr. Predefined diagnostic criteria were used.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 455 infants were included, 188 with CB-IgE ≥ 0.5 kU/l and 267 with CB-IgE <0.5 kU/l. Follow-up rates were high, 288 (63%) attended the 26-yr follow-up. Family history and elevated CB-IgE were significantly associated to allergic disease until 26 yr. Concerning any allergic symptoms at 1½ yr the positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV), the sensitivity and specificity of CB-IgE ≥ 0.5 kU/l, was 29%, 81%, 54%, and 61%, respectively. The corresponding figures at 26 yr were 46%, 62%, 43%, and 65%. Overall, family history as well as CB-IgE ≥ 0.5 kU/l was associated with high NPV and specificity, but low PPV and sensitivity.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Although family history and elevated CB-IgE were significantly associated with primarily atopic disease until 26 yr, none of these were strong predictors for subsequent sensitization and allergic symptoms from childhood until early adulthood. It appears that the predictive capacity of CB-IgE decreases in adolescence and early adulthood.
authors.affiliation: Hans Christian Andersen Children's Hospital, Odense University Hospital, Odense C, Denmark.
authors.forename: Susanne P
authors.initials: SP
authors.lastname: Nissen
authors.forename: Henrik F
authors.initials: HF
authors.lastname: Kjaer
authors.forename: Arne
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Høst
authors.forename: Jan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Nielsen
authors.forename: Susanne
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Halken
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D015331:Cohort Studies; D003718:Denmark; D005260:Female; D005312:Fetal Blood / Q000276:immunology; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D006967:Hypersensitivity / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000276:immunology; D007073:Immunoglobulin E / Q000097:blood; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D008487:Medical History Taking; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011379:Prognosis; D012680:Sensitivity and Specificity; D013147:Spirometry; D011795:Surveys and Questionnaires; D055815:Young Adult
chemical_list: D007073:Immunoglobulin E
keywords: allergic predisposition; asthma; birth cohort; cord blood IgE; eczema; food allergy; rhinoconjunctivitis; sensitization