title: Improving the use of species distribution models in conservation planning and management under climate change.
abstract: Choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However, an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered. We examine the effects of choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios can have on future species distribution models using two endangered species: one a short-lived invertebrate species (Ptunarra Brown Butterfly), and the other a long-lived paleo-endemic tree species (King Billy Pine). We show the range in projected distributions that result from different variable selection, climate models and emissions scenarios. The extent to which results are affected by these choices depends on the characteristics of the species modelled, but they all have the potential to substantially alter conclusions about the impacts of climate change. We discuss implications for conservation planning and management, and provide recommendations to conservation practitioners on variable selection and accommodating uncertainty when using future climate projections in species distribution models.
authors.affiliation: Fenner School of Environment and Society, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
authors.forename: Luciana L
authors.initials: LL
authors.lastname: Porfirio
authors.affiliation: Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
authors.forename: Rebecca M B
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Harris
authors.affiliation: Centre for the Environment, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
authors.forename: Edward C
authors.initials: EC
authors.lastname: Lefroy
authors.affiliation: Fenner School of Environment and Society, College of Medicine, Biology and Environment, Australian National University, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia.
authors.forename: Sonia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Hugh
authors.affiliation: Griffith Climate Change Response Program, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Susan F
authors.initials: SF
authors.lastname: Gould
authors.affiliation: Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
authors.forename: Greg
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Antarctic Climate & Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia; Australia Research Council, Centre of Excellence in Climate System Science, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia; The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Oceans & Atmosphere Flagship, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
authors.forename: Nathaniel L
authors.initials: NL
authors.lastname: Bindoff
authors.affiliation: Griffith Climate Change Response Program, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.
authors.forename: Brendan
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Mackey
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D044822:Biodiversity; D002080:Butterflies / Q000254:growth & development*; D057231:Climate Change; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources / Q000379:methods* / Q000639:trends; D029779:Cupressaceae / Q000235:genetics*; D017753:Ecosystem; D056727:Endangered Species; D005544:Forecasting; D008954:Models, Biological; D011156:Population Density; D011157:Population Dynamics; D013045:Species Specificity; D035501:Uncertainty