title: Could the human papillomavirus vaccines drive virulence evolution?
abstract: The human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines hold great promise for preventing several cancers caused by HPV infections. Yet little attention has been given to whether HPV could respond evolutionarily to the new selection pressures imposed on it by the novel immunity response created by the vaccine. Here, we present and theoretically validate a mechanism by which the vaccine alters the transmission-recovery trade-off that constrains HPV's virulence such that higher oncogene expression is favoured. With a high oncogene expression strategy, the virus is able to increase its viral load and infected cell population before clearance by the vaccine, thus improving its chances of transmission. This new rapid cell-proliferation strategy is able to circulate between hosts with medium to high turnover rates of sexual partners. We also discuss the importance of better quantifying the duration of challenge infections and the degree to which a vaccinated host can shed virus. The generality of the models presented here suggests a wider applicability of this mechanism, and thus highlights the need to investigate viral oncogenicity from an evolutionary perspective.
authors.affiliation: Department of Integrative Biology, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada carmenlia.murall@outlook.com.
authors.forename: Carmen Lía
authors.initials: CL
authors.lastname: Murall
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph, Ontario, Canada.
authors.forename: Chris T
authors.initials: CT
authors.lastname: Bauch
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics and Statistics and Department of Biology, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada.
authors.forename: Troy
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Day
mesh_terms: D019143:Evolution, Molecular; D015870:Gene Expression; D006801:Humans; D008957:Models, Genetic; D009857:Oncogenes; D027383:Papillomaviridae / Q000235:genetics* / Q000472:pathogenicity* / Q000502:physiology; D030361:Papillomavirus Infections / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology; D053918:Papillomavirus Vaccines / Q000494:pharmacology*; D012747:Sexual Partners; D019562:Viral Load; D014774:Virulence
chemical_list: D053918:Papillomavirus Vaccines
keywords: human papillomavirus; oncogenes; transmission–recovery trade-off; virulence evolution; within-host model