title: Erosion influences the seismicity of active thrust faults.
abstract: Assessing seismic hazards remains one of the most challenging scientific issues in Earth sciences. Deep tectonic processes are classically considered as the only persistent mechanism driving the stress loading of active faults over a seismic cycle. Here we show via a mechanical model that erosion also significantly influences the stress loading of thrust faults at the timescale of a seismic cycle. Indeed, erosion rates of about ~0.1-20 mm yr(-1), as documented in Taiwan and in other active compressional orogens, can raise the Coulomb stress by ~0.1-10 bar on the nearby thrust faults over the inter-seismic phase. Mass transfers induced by surface processes in general, during continuous or short-lived and intense events, represent a prominent mechanism for inter-seismic stress loading of faults near the surface. Such stresses are probably sufficient to trigger shallow seismicity or promote the rupture of deep continental earthquakes up to the surface.
authors.affiliation: Géosciences Rennes, Université Rennes 1 and CNRS UMR 6118, 35042 Rennes, France.
authors.forename: Philippe
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Steer
authors.affiliation: Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Sorbonne Paris Cité, University Paris Diderot, UMR 7154 CNRS, F-75005 Paris, France.
authors.forename: Martine
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Simoes
authors.affiliation: Géosciences Montpellier, Université Montpellier II and CNRS UMR 5243, 34090 Montpellier, France.
authors.forename: Rodolphe
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Cattin
authors.affiliation: Department of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan.
authors.forename: J Bruce H
authors.initials: JB
authors.lastname: Shyu