title: Evidence for declining numbers of Ebola cases--Montserrado County, Liberia, June-October 2014.
abstract: The epidemic of Ebola virus disease (Ebola) in West Africa that began in March 2014 has caused approximately 13,200 suspected, probable, and confirmed cases, including approximately 6,500 in Liberia. About 50% of Liberia's reported cases have been in Montserrado County (population 1.5 million), the most populous county, which contains the capital city, Monrovia. To examine the course of the Ebola epidemic in Montserrado County, data on Ebola treatment unit (ETU) admissions, laboratory testing of patient blood samples, and collection of dead bodies were analyzed. Each of the three data sources indicated consistent declines of 53%-73% following a peak incidence in mid-September. The declines in ETU admissions, percentage of patients with reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) test results positive for Ebola, and dead bodies are the first evidence of reduction in disease after implementation of multiple prevention and response measures. The possible contributions of these interventions to the decline is not yet fully understood or corroborated. A reduction in cases suggests some progress; however, eliminating Ebola transmission is the critical goal and will require greatly intensified efforts for complete, high-quality surveillance to direct and drive the rapid intervention, tracking, and response efforts that remain essential.
authors.forename: Tolbert G
authors.initials: TG
authors.lastname: Nyenswah
authors.forename: Matthew
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Westercamp
authors.forename: Amanda Ashraf
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Kamali
authors.forename: Jin
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Qin
authors.forename: Emily
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Zielinski-Gutierrez
authors.forename: Fred
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Amegashie
authors.forename: Mosaka
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Fallah
authors.forename: Bernadette
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Gergonne
authors.forename: Roselyn
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Nugba-Ballah
authors.forename: Gurudev
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Singh
authors.forename: John M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Aberle-Grasse
authors.forename: Fiona
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Havers
authors.forename: Joel M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Montgomery
authors.forename: Luke
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Bawo
authors.forename: Susan A
authors.initials: SA
authors.lastname: Wang
authors.forename: Ronald
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Rosenberg
mesh_terms: D029043:Ebolavirus / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D058872:Epidemics / Q000517:prevention & control*; D019142:Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control*; D006801:Humans; D007988:Liberia / Q000453:epidemiology; D010343:Patient Admission / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*