title: Association of extinction risk of saproxylic beetles with ecological degradation of forests in Europe.
abstract: To reduce future loss of biodiversity and to allocate conservation funds effectively, the major drivers behind large-scale extinction processes must be identified. A promising approach is to link the red-list status of species and specific traits that connect species of functionally important taxa or guilds to resources they rely on. Such traits can be used to detect the influence of anthropogenic ecosystem changes and conservation efforts on species, which allows for practical recommendations for conservation. We modeled the German Red List categories as an ordinal index of extinction risk of 1025 saproxylic beetles with a proportional-odds linear mixed-effects model for ordered categorical responses. In this model, we estimated fixed effects for intrinsic traits characterizing species biology, required resources, and distribution with phylogenetically correlated random intercepts. The model also allowed predictions of extinction risk for species with no red-list category. Our model revealed a higher extinction risk for lowland and large species as well as for species that rely on wood of large diameter, broad-leaved trees, or open canopy. These results mirror well the ecological degradation of European forests over the last centuries caused by modern forestry, that is the conversion of natural broad-leaved forests to dense conifer-dominated forests and the loss of old growth and dead wood. Therefore, conservation activities aimed at saproxylic beetles in all types of forests in Central and Western Europe should focus on lowlands, and habitat management of forest stands should aim at increasing the amount of dead wood of large diameter, dead wood of broad-leaved trees, and dead wood in sunny areas.
authors.affiliation: Bavarian Forest National Park, Freyunger Str. 2, 94481 Grafenau, Germany; Terrestrial Ecology Research Group, Department of Ecology and Ecosystem Management, Center for Food and Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technische Universität München, Hans-Carl-von-Carlowitz-Platz 2, 85354 Freising, Germany.
authors.forename: Sebastian
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Seibold
authors.forename: Roland
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Brandl
authors.forename: Jörn
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Buse
authors.forename: Torsten
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Hothorn
authors.forename: Jürgen
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Schmidl
authors.forename: Simon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Thorn
authors.forename: Jörg
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Müller
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001517:Coleoptera / Q000502:physiology*; D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D005060:Europe; D053476:Extinction, Biological; D065928:Forests; D012306:Risk; D018570:Risk Assessment
keywords: características funcionales; conservation-oriented forestry; dead wood; filogenia; forest history; functional traits; historia del bosque; lista roja; madera muerta; phylogeny; red list; silvicultura orientada a la conservación