title: Spatial analysis of distribution of dengue cases in Espírito Santo, Brazil, in 2010: use of Bayesian model.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To study the relationship between the risk of dengue and sociodemographic variables through the use of spatial regression models fully Bayesian in the municipalities of Espírito Santo in 2010.
  
  
  METHODS
  This is an ecological study and exploration that used spatial analysis tools in preparing thematic maps with data obtained from SinanNet. An analysis by area, taking as unit the municipalities of the state, was performed. Thematic maps were constructed by the computer program R 2.15.00 and Deviance Information Criterion (DIC), calculated in WinBugs, Absolut and Normalized Mean Error (NMAE) were the criteria used to compare the models.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We were able to geocode 21,933 dengue cases (rate of 623.99 cases per 100 thousand habitants) with a higher incidence in the municipalities of Vitória, Serra and Colatina; model with spatial effect with the covariates trash and income showed the best performance at DIC and Nmae criteria.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  It was possible to identify the relationship of dengue with factors outside the health sector and to identify areas with higher risk of disease.
authors.affiliation: School of Statistics, Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, Vitória, ES, Brazil.
authors.forename: Taizi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Honorato
authors.affiliation: School of Statistics, Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, Vitória, ES, Brazil.
authors.forename: Priscila Pagung de Aquino
authors.initials: PP
authors.lastname: Lapa
authors.affiliation: School of Nursing, Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, Vitória, ES, Brazil.
authors.forename: Carolina Maia Martins
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Sales
authors.affiliation: Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Pelotas, RS, Brazil.
authors.forename: Barbara
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Reis-Santos
authors.affiliation: School of Medicine, Santa Casa de Misericórdia, Santa Luíza, ES, Brazil.
authors.forename: Ricardo
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Tristão-Sá
authors.affiliation: Center for Exact Sciences, Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, Vitória, ES, Brazil.
authors.forename: Adelmo Inácio
authors.initials: AI
authors.lastname: Bertolde
authors.affiliation: Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, Vitória, ES, Brazil.
authors.forename: Ethel Leonor Noia
authors.initials: EL
authors.lastname: Maciel
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D001938:Brazil / Q000453:epidemiology; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology*; D006801:Humans; D016014:Linear Models; D062206:Spatial Analysis