title: Impact of climate and mosquito vector abundance on sylvatic arbovirus circulation dynamics in Senegal.
abstract: Sylvatic arboviruses have been isolated in Senegal over the last 50 years. The ecological drivers of the pattern and frequency of virus infection in these species are largely unknown. We used time series analysis and Bayesian hierarchical count modeling on a long-term arbovirus dataset to test associations between mosquito abundance, weather variables, and the frequency of isolation of dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. We found little correlation between mosquito abundance and viral isolations. Rainfall was a negative predictor of dengue virus (DENV) isolation but a positive predictor of Zika virus isolation. Temperature was a positive predictor of yellow fever virus (YFV) isolations but a negative predictor of DENV isolations. We found slight interference between viruses, with DENV negatively associated with concurrent YFV isolation and YFV negatively associated with concurrent isolation of chikungunya virus. These findings begin to characterize some of the ecological associations of sylvatic arboviruses with each other and climate and mosquito abundance.
authors.affiliation: Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico; Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Office of Research and Sponsored Projects, University of Texas, El Paso, Texas; Tropical Diseases and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland althouse@santafe.edu.
authors.forename: Benjamin M
authors.initials: BM
authors.lastname: Althouse
authors.affiliation: Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico; Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Office of Research and Sponsored Projects, University of Texas, El Paso, Texas; Tropical Diseases and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Kathryn A
authors.initials: KA
authors.lastname: Hanley
authors.affiliation: Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico; Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Office of Research and Sponsored Projects, University of Texas, El Paso, Texas; Tropical Diseases and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Mawlouth
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Diallo
authors.affiliation: Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico; Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Office of Research and Sponsored Projects, University of Texas, El Paso, Texas; Tropical Diseases and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Amadou A
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Sall
authors.affiliation: Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico; Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Office of Research and Sponsored Projects, University of Texas, El Paso, Texas; Tropical Diseases and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Yamar
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Ba
authors.affiliation: Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico; Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Office of Research and Sponsored Projects, University of Texas, El Paso, Texas; Tropical Diseases and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Ousmane
authors.initials: O
authors.lastname: Faye
authors.affiliation: Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico; Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Office of Research and Sponsored Projects, University of Texas, El Paso, Texas; Tropical Diseases and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Diawo
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Diallo
authors.affiliation: Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico; Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Office of Research and Sponsored Projects, University of Texas, El Paso, Texas; Tropical Diseases and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Douglas M
authors.initials: DM
authors.lastname: Watts
authors.affiliation: Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico; Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Office of Research and Sponsored Projects, University of Texas, El Paso, Texas; Tropical Diseases and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Scott C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: Weaver
authors.affiliation: Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico; Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, New Mexico; Institut Pasteur de Dakar, Dakar, Senegal; Office of Research and Sponsored Projects, University of Texas, El Paso, Texas; Tropical Diseases and Department of Pathology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, Texas; Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.
authors.forename: Derek A T
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Cummings
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001102:Arbovirus Infections / Q000635:transmission / Q000821:virology; D002980:Climate; D009033:Culicidae / Q000821:virology*; D007303:Insect Vectors; D011891:Rain; D012675:Senegal / Q000453:epidemiology