title: Illicit cigarette consumption and government revenue loss in Indonesia.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Illicit cigarettes comprise more than 11% of tobacco consumption and 17% of consumption in low- and middle-income countries. Illicit cigarettes, defined as those that evade taxes, lower consumer prices, threaten national tobacco control efforts, and reduce excise tax collection.
  
  
  METHODS
  This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette consumption within Indonesia using two methods: the discrepancies between legal cigarette sales and domestic consumption estimated from surveys, and discrepancies between imports recorded by Indonesia and exports recorded by trade partners. Smuggling plays a minor role in the availability of illicit cigarettes because Indonesians predominantly consume kreteks, which are primarily manufactured in Indonesia.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Looking at the period from 1995 to 2013, illicit cigarettes first emerged in 2004. When no respondent under-reporting is assumed, illicit consumption makes up 17% of the domestic market in 2004, 9% in 2007, 11% in 2011, and 8% in 2013. Discrepancies in the trade data indicate that Indonesia was a recipient of smuggled cigarettes for each year between 1995 and 2012. The value of this illicit trade ranges from less than $1 million to nearly $50 million annually. Singapore, China, and Vietnam together accounted for nearly two-thirds of trade discrepancies over the period. Tax losses due to illicit consumption amount to between Rp 4.1 and 9.3 trillion rupiah, 4% to 13% of tobacco excise revenue, in 2011 and 2013.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Due to the predominance of kretek consumption in Indonesia and Indonesia's status as the predominant producer of kreteks, illicit domestic production is likely the most important source for illicit cigarettes, and initiatives targeted to combat this illicit production carry the promise of the greatest potential impact.
authors.affiliation: Demographic Institute Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia, N. Iskandar Building, 3rd Floor, University of Indonesia Campus, Depok, 16424, Indonesia. ahsanov@yahoo.com.
authors.forename: Abdillah
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ahsan
authors.affiliation: Demographic Institute Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia, N. Iskandar Building, 3rd Floor, University of Indonesia Campus, Depok, 16424, Indonesia. nhwiyono@yahoo.com.
authors.forename: Nur Hadi
authors.initials: NH
authors.lastname: Wiyono
authors.affiliation: Demographic Institute Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia, N. Iskandar Building, 3rd Floor, University of Indonesia Campus, Depok, 16424, Indonesia. dsetyonaluri@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Diahhadi
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Setyonaluri
authors.affiliation: Program on Global Health and Technology Access, Sanford School of Public Policy and Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708, USA. rdennist@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Ryan
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Denniston
authors.affiliation: Program on Global Health and Technology Access, Sanford School of Public Policy and Duke Global Health Institute, Duke University, Durham, NC, 27708, USA. anthony.so@duke.edu.
authors.forename: Anthony D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: So
mesh_terms: D003132:Commerce / Q000191:economics* / Q000331:legislation & jurisprudence*; D003625:Data Collection; D006801:Humans; D007214:Indonesia; D015995:Prevalence; D012907:Smoking / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology; D013660:Taxes / Q000191:economics*; D062789:Tobacco Products / Q000191:economics*