title: Projected impact of Cervarix® vaccination on oncogenic human papillomavirus infection and cervical cancer in the United Kingdom.
abstract: We developed a dynamic compartmental model to assess the impact of HPV Universal Mass Vaccination with Cervarix(®), which offers protection against HPV16/18 and cross-protection against other cancer-causing types, using up-to-date efficacy data.   Analyses were performed in the UK because of the large amount of high quality epidemiological data available. For each HPV type/group of types considered, the model was calibrated to 14 epidemiological data sets (prevalence of HPV infection, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN): CIN1, CIN2, CIN3 pre-screening and cervical cancer (CC) incidence over 10 years post-screening). Impacts of cross-protection, female catch-up vaccination, and additional male vaccination on oncogenic infections, high-grade CIN (CIN2+) and CC were evaluated. Our results show that female UMV with 80% coverage and cross-protection against high-risk types resulted in 79% CIN2+ and 84% CC reductions vs. 55% and 71%, respectively, without cross-protection. Vaccinating 40% of males and 80% of females was equivalent to 90% female-only coverage regarding CIN2+ (85% and 86%, respectively) and CC (90% and 91%, respectively) reductions. Female-only coverage of 80% substantially reduced male HPV16 and 18 infection due to herd protection (59% and 80%, respectively). Increasing female coverage to 90% reduced HPV16 and HPV18 infections in males similarly to 80% female combined with 20% and 40% male coverage, respectively. Model outcomes strengthen previous conclusions about the significant added value of Cervarix(®) cross-protection for CC prevention, the primary HPV vaccination public health priority. Regarding female CC prevention and male HPV16/18 infection, small increases in female coverage induce similar benefits achieved by additionally vaccinating men with 20-40% coverage.
authors.affiliation: a GlaxoSmithKline Vaccines; Global Epidemiology; Wavre, Belgium.
authors.forename: Thierry
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Van Effelterre
authors.forename: Cosmina
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Hogea
authors.forename: Sylvia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Taylor
keywords: Cervarix®; Cervical Cancer; HPV; cancer; cross-protection; epidemiology; mathematical modelling; universal mass vaccination