title: Prediction model to discard a priori liver allografts.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The use of expanded criteria for donors to expand the donor pool has increased the number of discarded liver grafts in situ. The aim of our study was to elaborate a prediction model to reduce the percentage of liver grafts discarded before the procuring team is sent out.
  
  
  METHODS
  We analyzed the donor factors of 244 evaluated candidates for liver donation. We performed a multiple logistic regression to evaluate the probability of liver grafts discarded (PD).
  
  
  RESULTS
  The PD was determined by use of 3 variables: age, pathological ultrasonography, and body mass index >30. The area under curve was 82.7%, and, for a PD of 70%, the false-positive probability was 1.2%.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We have created a useful clinical prediction model that could avoid up to 20% of discarded liver grafts.
authors.affiliation: Unit of Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Hospital Universitario Reina Sofia, Córdoba, Spain. Electronic address: alvaroarjona@hotmail.com.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Arjona-Sánchez
authors.affiliation: Unit of Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Hospital Universitario Reina Sofia, Córdoba, Spain.
authors.forename: J M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Sánchez-Hidalgo
authors.affiliation: Unit of Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Hospital Universitario Reina Sofia, Córdoba, Spain.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Ciria-Bru
authors.affiliation: Unit of Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Hospital Universitario Reina Sofia, Córdoba, Spain.
authors.forename: F C
authors.initials: FC
authors.lastname: Muñoz-Casares
authors.affiliation: Unit of Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Hospital Universitario Reina Sofia, Córdoba, Spain.
authors.forename: J F
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Ruiz-Rabelo
authors.affiliation: Unit of Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Hospital Universitario Reina Sofia, Córdoba, Spain.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gallardo
authors.affiliation: Unit of Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Hospital Universitario Reina Sofia, Córdoba, Spain.
authors.forename: R
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Orti
authors.affiliation: Unit of Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Hospital Universitario Reina Sofia, Córdoba, Spain.
authors.forename: A
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Luque
authors.affiliation: Unit of Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Hospital Universitario Reina Sofia, Córdoba, Spain.
authors.forename: S
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Rufián-Peña
authors.affiliation: Unit of Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Hospital Universitario Reina Sofia, Córdoba, Spain.
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: López-Cillero
authors.affiliation: Unit of Hepatology and Liver Transplantation, Hospital Universitario Reina Sofia, Córdoba, Spain.
authors.forename: M
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: de la Mata
authors.affiliation: Unit of Surgery and Liver Transplantation, Hospital Universitario Reina Sofia, Córdoba, Spain.
authors.forename: F J
authors.initials: FJ
authors.lastname: Briceño-Delgado
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D064591:Allografts; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D016031:Liver Transplantation; D016015:Logistic Models; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015999:Multivariate Analysis; D012372:ROC Curve; D014019:Tissue Donors; D009927:Tissue and Organ Procurement; D019737:Transplants