title: The role of different social contexts in shaping influenza transmission during the 2009 pandemic.
abstract: Evaluating the relative importance of different social contexts in which infection transmission occurs is critical for identifying optimal intervention strategies. Nonetheless, an overall picture of influenza transmission in different social contexts has yet to emerge. Here we provide estimates of the fraction of infections generated in different social contexts during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Italy by making use of a highly detailed individual-based model accounting for time use data and parametrized on the basis of observed age-specific seroprevalence. We found that 41.6% (95%CI: 39-43.7%) of infections occurred in households, 26.7% (95%CI: 21-33.2) in schools, 3.3% (95%CI: 1.7-5%) in workplaces, and 28.4% (95%CI: 24.6-31.9%) in the general community. The above estimates strongly depend on the lower susceptibility to infection of individuals 19+ years old compared to younger ones, estimated to be 0.2 (95%CI 0.12-0.28). We also found that school closure over the weekends contributed to decrease the effective reproduction number of about 8% and significantly affected the pattern of transmission. These results highlight the pivotal role played by schools in the transmission of the 2009 H1N1 influenza. They may be relevant in the evaluation of intervention options and, hence, for informing policy decisions.
authors.affiliation: Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.
authors.forename: Marco
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ajelli
authors.affiliation: 1] Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy [2] Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: Piero
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Poletti
authors.affiliation: Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy.
authors.forename: Alessia
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Melegaro
authors.affiliation: Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.
authors.forename: Stefano
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Merler
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D002648:Child; D002675:Child, Preschool; D004198:Disease Susceptibility / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission*; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008875:Middle Aged; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D058873:Pandemics; D012574:Schools; D016036:Seroepidemiologic Studies; D055815:Young Adult