title: Global health impacts of future aviation emissions under alternative control scenarios.
abstract: There is strong evidence of an association between fine particulate matter less than 2.5 μm (PM2.5) in aerodynamic diameter and adverse health outcomes. This study analyzes the global excess mortality attributable to the aviation sector in the present (2006) and in the future (three 2050 scenarios) using the integrated exposure response model that was also used in the 2010 Global Burden of Disease assessment. The PM2.5 concentrations for the present and future scenarios were calculated using aviation emission inventories developed by the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center and a global chemistry-climate model. We found that while excess mortality due to the aviation sector emissions is greater in 2050 compared to 2006, improved fuel policies (technology and operations improvements yielding smaller increases in fuel burn compared to 2006, and conversion to fully sustainable fuels) in 2050 could lead to 72% fewer deaths for adults 25 years and older than a 2050 scenario with no fuel improvements. Among the four health outcomes examined, ischemic heart disease was the greatest cause of death. Our results suggest that implementation of improved fuel policies can have substantial human health benefits.
authors.affiliation: Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University , 722 West 168th Street, New York, New York 10032, United States.
authors.forename: Haruka
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Morita
authors.forename: Suijia
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Yang
authors.forename: Nadine
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Unger
authors.forename: Patrick L
authors.initials: PL
authors.lastname: Kinney
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D000393:Air Pollutants / Q000009:adverse effects / Q000032:analysis; D000397:Air Pollution / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000032:analysis; D001359:Aviation / Q000639:trends; D002980:Climate; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting; D014943:Global Health; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009026:Mortality; D052638:Particulate Matter / Q000009:adverse effects* / Q000032:analysis
chemical_list: D000393:Air Pollutants; D052638:Particulate Matter