title: Application of the RIMARC algorithm to a large data set of action potentials and clinical parameters for risk prediction of atrial fibrillation.
abstract: Ex vivo recorded action potentials (APs) in human right atrial tissue from patients in sinus rhythm (SR) or atrial fibrillation (AF) display a characteristic spike-and-dome or triangular shape, respectively, but variability is huge within each rhythm group. The aim of our study was to apply the machine-learning algorithm ranking instances by maximizing the area under the ROC curve (RIMARC) to a large data set of 480 APs combined with retrospectively collected general clinical parameters and to test whether the rules learned by the RIMARC algorithm can be used for accurately classifying the preoperative rhythm status. APs were included from 221 SR and 158 AF patients. During a learning phase, the RIMARC algorithm established a ranking order of 62 features by predictive value for SR or AF. The model was then challenged with an additional test set of features from 28 patients in whom rhythm status was blinded. The accuracy of the risk prediction for AF by the model was very good (0.93) when all features were used. Without the seven AP features, accuracy still reached 0.71. In conclusion, we have shown that training the machine-learning algorithm RIMARC with an experimental and clinical data set allows predicting a classification in a test data set with high accuracy. In a clinical setting, this approach may prove useful for finding hypothesis-generating associations between different parameters.
authors.affiliation: Department of Pharmacology and Toxicology, Medical Faculty Carl Gustav Carus, TU Dresden, Dresden, Germany, ravens@rcs.urz.tu-dresden.de.
authors.forename: Ursula
authors.initials: U
authors.lastname: Ravens
authors.forename: Deniz
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Katircioglu-Öztürk
authors.forename: Erich
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Wettwer
authors.forename: Torsten
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Christ
authors.forename: Dobromir
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Dobrev
authors.forename: Niels
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Voigt
authors.forename: Claire
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Poulet
authors.forename: Simone
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Loose
authors.forename: Jana
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Simon
authors.forename: Agnes
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Stein
authors.forename: Klaus
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Matschke
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Knaut
authors.forename: Emre
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Oto
authors.forename: Ali
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Oto
authors.forename: H Altay
authors.initials: HA
authors.lastname: Güvenir
mesh_terms: D000200:Action Potentials / Q000502:physiology*; D000368:Aged; D000465:Algorithms; D001281:Atrial Fibrillation / Q000503:physiopathology*; D005260:Female; D006325:Heart Atria / Q000503:physiopathology; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D012372:ROC Curve; D012306:Risk