title: Predicting codling moth (Cydia pomonella) phenology in North Carolina on the basis of temperature and improved generation turnover estimates.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The codling moth, Cydia pomonella (L.) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is a major worldwide pest of apples, pears and walnuts. A temperature-driven phenological model of codling moth, developed in Michigan, has been utilized in North Carolina and other states for decades. Systematic inaccuracy of this model in predicting moth emergence in North Carolina suggests that the relationship between emergence and temperature differs between the American midwest and southeast, or that additional factors may influence the system.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A method was developed to optimize the estimation of generation turnover intervals. Emergence was modeled as a function of heat unit accumulation. Significant differences between emergence predictions based on the resultant model and the existing model developed in Michigan were found.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  A new model of codling moth emergence, incorporating improved estimates for generation turnover for North Carolina, offers predictive improvement with practical importance to management. Differences between the emergence of susceptible and resistant moth populations were also investigated, leading to the suggestion that resistance to insecticides should be considered in future studies of emergence phenology.
authors.affiliation: North Carolina State University, Department of Entomology, Raleigh, NC, USA.
authors.forename: Thomas M
authors.initials: TM
authors.lastname: Chappell
authors.affiliation: North Carolina State University, Department of Entomology, Raleigh, NC, USA.
authors.forename: George G
authors.initials: GG
authors.lastname: Kennedy
authors.affiliation: North Carolina State University, Department of Entomology, Mills River, NC, USA.
authors.forename: James F
authors.initials: JF
authors.lastname: Walgenbach
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D005260:Female; D007300:Insect Control; D007306:Insecticides / Q000494:pharmacology; D008297:Male; D008954:Models, Biological; D009036:Moths / Q000187:drug effects / Q000254:growth & development*; D009657:North Carolina; D012621:Seasons; D013696:Temperature
chemical_list: D007306:Insecticides
keywords: apple; codling moth; emergence; model; phenology