title: Impact of climate change and population growth on a risk assessment for endocrine disruption in fish due to steroid estrogens in England and Wales.
abstract: In England and Wales, steroid estrogens: estrone, estradiol and ethinylestradiol have previously been identified as the main chemicals causing endocrine disruption in male fish. A national risk assessment is already available for intersex in fish arising from estrogens under current flow conditions. This study presents, to our knowledge, the first set of national catchment-based risk assessments for steroid estrogen under future scenarios. The river flows and temperatures were perturbed using three climate change scenarios (ranging from relatively dry to wet). The effects of demographic changes on estrogen consumption and human population served by sewage treatment works were also included. Compared to the current situation, the results indicated increased future risk:the percentage of high risk category sites, where endocrine disruption is more likely to occur, increased. These increases were mainly caused by changes in human population. This study provides regulators with valuable information to prepare for this potential increased risk.
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxon OX10 8BB, UK.
authors.forename: V D J
authors.initials: VDJ
authors.lastname: Keller
authors.affiliation: Wallingford HydroSolutions, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxon OX10, UK.
authors.forename: P
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Lloyd
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxon OX10 8BB, UK.
authors.forename: J A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Terry
authors.affiliation: Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Crowmarsh Gifford, Wallingford, Oxon OX10 8BB, UK. Electronic address: rjw@ceh.ac.uk.
authors.forename: R J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Williams
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D057231:Climate Change; D052244:Endocrine Disruptors / Q000032:analysis / Q000378:metabolism*; D004739:England; D004958:Estradiol / Q000032:analysis / Q000378:metabolism; D045166:Estradiol Congeners / Q000032:analysis / Q000378:metabolism; D004967:Estrogens / Q000032:analysis / Q000378:metabolism; D004970:Estrone / Q000032:analysis / Q000378:metabolism; D004997:Ethinyl Estradiol; D005399:Fishes / Q000378:metabolism*; D005544:Forecasting; D008297:Male; D011158:Population Growth; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D045483:Rivers / Q000737:chemistry; D014852:Wales
chemical_list: D052244:Endocrine Disruptors; D045166:Estradiol Congeners; D004967:Estrogens; D004970:Estrone; D004997:Ethinyl Estradiol; D004958:Estradiol
keywords: Catchment; Endocrine disruption; Environmental risk assessment; Modelling; Predicted environmental concentration; River