title: Modeling crash spatial heterogeneity: random parameter versus geographically weighting.
abstract: The widely adopted techniques for regional crash modeling include the negative binomial model (NB) and Bayesian negative binomial model with conditional autoregressive prior (CAR). The outputs from both models consist of a set of fixed global parameter estimates. However, the impacts of predicting variables on crash counts might not be stationary over space. This study intended to quantitatively investigate this spatial heterogeneity in regional safety modeling using two advanced approaches, i.e., random parameter negative binomial model (RPNB) and semi-parametric geographically weighted Poisson regression model (S-GWPR). Based on a 3-year data set from the county of Hillsborough, Florida, results revealed that (1) both RPNB and S-GWPR successfully capture the spatially varying relationship, but the two methods yield notably different sets of results; (2) the S-GWPR performs best with the highest value of Rd(2) as well as the lowest mean absolute deviance and Akaike information criterion measures. Whereas the RPNB is comparable to the CAR, in some cases, it provides less accurate predictions; (3) a moderately significant spatial correlation is found in the residuals of RPNB and NB, implying the inadequacy in accounting for the spatial correlation existed across adjacent zones. As crash data are typically collected with reference to location dimension, it is desirable to firstly make use of the geographical component to explore explicitly spatial aspects of the crash data (i.e., the spatial heterogeneity, or the spatially structured varying relationships), then is the unobserved heterogeneity by non-spatial or fuzzy techniques. The S-GWPR is proven to be more appropriate for regional crash modeling as the method outperforms the global models in capturing the spatial heterogeneity occurring in the relationship that is model, and compared with the non-spatial model, it is capable of accounting for the spatial correlation in crash data.
authors.affiliation: Urban Transport Research Center, School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan 410075, PR China. Electronic address: pengpengxu@yeah.net.
authors.forename: Pengpeng
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Xu
authors.affiliation: Urban Transport Research Center, School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan 410075, PR China. Electronic address: huanghelai@csu.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Helai
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Huang
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D004779:Environment Design; D005431:Florida; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D012449:Safety; D000068916:Spatial Regression
keywords: Random parameter negative binomial model; Regional crash prediction model; Semi-parametric geographically weighted Poisson regression model; Spatial heterogeneity