title: Spatio-temporal epidemiology of highly pathogenic avian influenza (subtype H5N1) in poultry in eastern India.
abstract: In India, majority outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 have occurred in eastern states of West Bengal, Assam and Tripura. This study aimed to identify disease clusters and risk factors of HPAI H5N1 in these states, for targeted surveillance and disease control. A spatial scan statistic identified two significant disease clusters in West Bengal and Assam, occurring during January and November-December 2008, respectively. Key risk factors were identified at sub-district level using bootstrapped logistic regression and boosted regression trees model. With both methods, HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in backyard poultry were associated with accessibility in terms of time taken to access a city with >50,000 persons, human population density and duck density (P<0.005). In addition, areas at lower elevation were also identified as high risk by BRT model. It is recommended that risk-based surveillance should be implemented in high duck density areas and all live-bird markets in high-throughput locations.
authors.affiliation: Emergency Centre for Transboundary Animal Diseases - India, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Animal Quarantine & Certification Service Station Kapashera, New Delhi 110037, India; Division of Pathway Medicine, School of Biomedical Sciences, College of Medicine and Veterinary Medicine, Chancellor's Building, 49 Little France Crescent, Edinburgh EH16 4SB, United Kingdom. Electronic address: madhur.dhingra@fao.org.
authors.forename: Madhur S
authors.initials: MS
authors.lastname: Dhingra
authors.affiliation: Emergency Centre for Transboundary Animal Diseases (ECTAD)/Regional Support Unit for SAARC Countries, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, KSK Building, Block B, Third Floor, Pulchowk, Kathmandu, Nepal.
authors.forename: Ravi
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Dissanayake
authors.affiliation: Emergency Centre for Transboundary Animal Diseases - India, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Animal Quarantine & Certification Service Station Kapashera, New Delhi 110037, India.
authors.forename: Ajender Bhagat
authors.initials: AB
authors.lastname: Negi
authors.affiliation: Emergency Centre for Transboundary Animal Diseases (ECTAD)/Regional Support Unit for SAARC Countries, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, KSK Building, Block B, Third Floor, Pulchowk, Kathmandu, Nepal.
authors.forename: Mohinder
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Oberoi
authors.affiliation: Emergency Center for Transboundary Animal Diseases (ECTAD), FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (FAO-RAP), 39 Phra Atit Road, Bangkok 10200, Thailand.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Castellan
authors.affiliation: Veterinary Clinical Sciences, Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, College of Medicine and Veterinary Medicine, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush Veterinary Centre Roslin, Midlothian EH25 9RG, United Kingdom.
authors.forename: Michael
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Thrusfield
authors.affiliation: Biological Control and Spatial Ecology, CP160/12 Université Libre de Bruxelles, Avenue FD Roosevelt 50, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium; Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique (F.R.S.-FNRS), rue d'Egmont 5, B-1000 Brussels, Belgium.
authors.forename: Catherine
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Linard
authors.affiliation: Biological Control and Spatial Ecology, CP160/12 Université Libre de Bruxelles, Avenue FD Roosevelt 50, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium; Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifique (F.R.S.-FNRS), rue d'Egmont 5, B-1000 Brussels, Belgium.
authors.forename: Marius
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Gilbert
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D016000:Cluster Analysis; D004196:Disease Outbreaks / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000662:veterinary*; D004372:Ducks; D006801:Humans; D007194:India / Q000453:epidemiology; D053124:Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype; D005585:Influenza in Birds / Q000453:epidemiology*; D016015:Logistic Models; D011156:Population Density; D011200:Poultry; D011201:Poultry Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*; D012307:Risk Factors; D062206:Spatial Analysis
keywords: Disease surveillance; Eastern India; HPAI H5N1 in poultry; Predictive risk modeling; Risk factors; Spatial and temporal clusters