title: [Early prediction of the neurological result at 12 months in newborns at neurological risk].
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The aim of this study was to evaluate the Amiel-Tison neurological examination (AT) and cranial ultrasound at term for predicting the neurological result at 12 months in newborns with neurological risk.
  
  
  METHODS
  The study included 89 newborns with high risk of neurological damage, who were discharged from the Neonatal Intensive Care of the Hospital Zonal Bariloche, Argentina. The assessment consisted of a neurological examination and cranial ultrasound at term, and neurological examination and evaluation of development at 12 months. The sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictor value was calculated. The relationship between perinatal factors and neurodevelopment at 12 month of age was also calculated using logistic regression models.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Seventy children completed the follow-up. At 12 months of age, 14% had an abnormal neurological examination, and 17% abnormal development. The neurological examination and the cranial ultrasound at term had low sensitivity to predict abnormal neurodevelopment. At 12 months, 93% of newborns with normal AT showed normal neurological results, and 86% normal development. Among newborns with normal cranial ultrasound the percentages were 90 and 81%, respectively. Among children with three or more perinatal risk factors, the frequency of abnormalities in the neurological response was 5.4 times higher than among those with fewer risk factors, and abnormal development was 3.5 times more frequent.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The neurological examination and cranial ultrasound at term had low sensitivity but high negative predictive value for the neurodevelopment at 12 months. Three or more perinatal risk factors were associated with neurodevelopment abnormalities at 12 months of age.
authors.affiliation: Servicio de Neonatología, Hospital Zonal Bariloche, Bariloche, Argentina. Electronic address: faherbon@gmail.com.
authors.forename: F
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Herbón
authors.affiliation: Centro Regional Universitario Bariloche, Universidad Nacional del Comahue, Bariloche, Argentina.
authors.forename: G
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Garibotti
authors.affiliation: Servicio de Imágenes, Hospital Zonal Bariloche, Bariloche, Argentina.
authors.forename: J
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Moguilevsky
mesh_terms: D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D008297:Male; D009422:Nervous System Diseases / Q000175:diagnosis / Q000453:epidemiology*; D009460:Neurologic Examination; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012307:Risk Factors; D013997:Time Factors
keywords: Examen neurológico; Infant; Neurodesarrollo, Recién nacidos; Neurological examination; Psychomotor performance prediction; Ultrasonografía; Ultrasound