title: Conjoint trajectories of depressive symptoms and delinquent behavior predicting substance use disorders.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  This study examines the conjoint trajectories of depressive symptoms and delinquent behavior from adolescence (age 14) into young adulthood (age 24) as predictors of substance use disorders (SUDs) in adulthood (age 32).
  
  
  METHODS
  Of the 816 participants, 52% were African Americans, and 48% were Puerto Ricans. After we obtained the conjoint trajectory groups using Mplus, we performed logistic regression analyses using SAS to compare the Bayesian Posterior Probability (BPP) of each of the conjoint trajectory groups with the BPP of the reference conjoint trajectory group to predict SUDs.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Four conjoint trajectory groups were obtained. The higher BPPs of both the high depressive symptoms and low delinquent behavior trajectory group (AOR=3.54, p<.05) and the medium depressive symptoms and high delinquent behavior trajectory group (AOR=10.28, p<.001), as compared with the BPP of the low depressive symptoms and low delinquent behavior trajectory group, were associated with an increased likelihood of SUDs in adulthood. These associations were maintained with control on gender, ethnicity, the use of alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana, socioeconomic status (SES) at age 14, and income and educational level at age 36.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Prevention and treatment of delinquent individuals reporting SUDs might be more effective if their depressive symptoms were also addressed. Similarly, prevention and treatment of depressed individuals reporting SUDs might be more effective if their delinquent behavior was also addressed.
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, New York University School of Medicine, 215 Lexington Avenue, 15th Floor, New York, NY 10016, USA. Electronic address: judith.brook@nyumc.org.
authors.forename: Judith S
authors.initials: JS
authors.lastname: Brook
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, New York University School of Medicine, 215 Lexington Avenue, 15th Floor, New York, NY 10016, USA.
authors.forename: Jung Yeon
authors.initials: JY
authors.lastname: Lee
authors.affiliation: Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, 1-113 Mathematics Building, SUNY Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY 11794-3600, USA.
authors.forename: Stephen J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Finch
authors.affiliation: Department of Psychiatry, New York University School of Medicine, 215 Lexington Avenue, 15th Floor, New York, NY 10016, USA.
authors.forename: David W
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: Brook
mesh_terms: D000293:Adolescent; D000328:Adult; D001741:Black or African American / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D000428:Alcohol Drinking / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000523:psychology; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003863:Depression / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology; D004522:Educational Status; D005260:Female; D006630:Hispanic or Latino / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D006801:Humans; D007182:Income / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D007604:Juvenile Delinquency / Q000523:psychology / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D016015:Logistic Models; D008137:Longitudinal Studies; D008297:Male; D008385:Marijuana Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000523:psychology; D011647:Puerto Rico / Q000208:ethnology; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology; D012923:Social Class; D019966:Substance-Related Disorders / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000523:psychology; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology; D055815:Young Adult
keywords: Conjoint trajectories; Delinquent behavior; Depressive symptoms; Longitudinal study; Substance use disorder