title: Uncertainty analysis and global sensitivity analysis of techno-economic assessments for biodiesel production.
abstract: There are various uncertain parameters in the techno-economic assessments (TEAs) of biodiesel production, including capital cost, interest rate, feedstock price, maintenance rate, biodiesel conversion efficiency, glycerol price and operating cost. However, fewer studies focus on the influence of these parameters on TEAs. This paper investigated the effects of these parameters on the life cycle cost (LCC) and the unit cost (UC) in the TEAs of biodiesel production. The results show that LCC and UC exhibit variations when involving uncertain parameters. Based on the uncertainty analysis, three global sensitivity analysis (GSA) methods are utilized to quantify the contribution of an individual uncertain parameter to LCC and UC. The GSA results reveal that the feedstock price and the interest rate produce considerable effects on the TEAs. These results can provide a useful guide for entrepreneurs when they plan plants.
authors.affiliation: School of Aeronautics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an 710072, Shanxi, China; School of Mechatronics Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731, Sichuan, China. Electronic address: tangzhangchun@uestc.edu.cn.
authors.forename: Zhang-Chun
authors.initials: ZC
authors.lastname: Tang
authors.affiliation: School of Aeronautics, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi'an 710072, Shanxi, China.
authors.forename: Lu
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Zhenzhou
authors.affiliation: School of Mechatronics Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731, Sichuan, China.
authors.forename: Liu
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Zhiwen
authors.affiliation: School of Mechatronics Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731, Sichuan, China.
authors.forename: Xiao
authors.initials: X
authors.lastname: Ningcong
mesh_terms: D056804:Biofuels / Q000191:economics*; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D003365:Costs and Cost Analysis; D005990:Glycerol / Q000378:metabolism; D018803:Models, Economic; D035501:Uncertainty
chemical_list: D056804:Biofuels; D005990:Glycerol
keywords: Global sensitivity analysis; Life cycle cost; Techno-economic assessments; Uncertainty analysis; Unit cost