title: Modeling sheep pox disease from the 1994-1998 epidemic in Evros Prefecture, Greece.
abstract: Sheep pox is a highly transmissible disease which can cause serious loss of livestock and can therefore have major economic impact. We present data from sheep pox epidemics which occurred between 1994 and 1998. The data include weekly records of infected farms as well as a number of covariates. We implement Bayesian stochastic regression models which, in addition to various explanatory variables like seasonal and environmental/meteorological factors, also contain serial correlation structure based on variants of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. We take a predictive view in model selection by utilizing deviance-based measures. The results indicate that seasonality and the number of infected farms are important predictors for sheep pox incidence.
authors.affiliation: Department of Agricultural Development, Democritus University of Thrace, Pantazidou 193, Orestiada, Greece. Electronic address: malesios@agro.duth.gr.
authors.forename: C
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Malesios
authors.affiliation: Department of Statistics, Athens University of Economics and Business, 76, Patission Str., Athens, Greece. Electronic address: nikos@aueb.gr.
authors.forename: N
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Demiris
authors.affiliation: Department of Agricultural Development, Democritus University of Thrace, Pantazidou 193, Orestiada, Greece. Electronic address: abas@agro.duth.gr.
authors.forename: Z
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Abas
authors.affiliation: Rural Economy and Veterinary Directorate, Region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, Regional Unit of Evros, Orestiada, Greece. Electronic address: kdadousis@hotmail.com.
authors.forename: K
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Dadousis
authors.affiliation: Department of Agricultural Development, Democritus University of Thrace, Pantazidou 193, Orestiada, Greece. Electronic address: tkoutrou@agro.duth.gr.
authors.forename: T
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Koutroumanidis
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D001499:Bayes Theorem; D018151:Capripoxvirus / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D058872:Epidemics / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000662:veterinary*; D006115:Greece; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011213:Poxviridae Infections / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000662:veterinary*; D012756:Sheep; D012757:Sheep Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology*
keywords: Bayesian modeling; Greece; Sheep pox disease; ZINB; ZIP