title: Visualizing the uncertainty in the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk.
abstract: Around $1.6 billion per year is spent financing anti-malaria initiatives, and though malaria morbidity is falling, the impact of annual epidemics remains significant. Whilst malaria risk may increase with climate change, projections are highly uncertain and to sidestep this intractable uncertainty, adaptation efforts should improve societal ability to anticipate and mitigate individual events. Anticipation of climate-related events is made possible by seasonal climate forecasting, from which warnings of anomalous seasonal average temperature and rainfall, months in advance are possible. Seasonal climate hindcasts have been used to drive climate-based models for malaria, showing significant skill for observed malaria incidence. However, the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk remains unquantified. Here we explore this relationship, using a dynamic weather-driven malaria model. We also quantify key uncertainty in the malaria model, by introducing variability in one of the first order uncertainties in model formulation. Results are visualized as location-specific impact surfaces: easily integrated with ensemble seasonal climate forecasts, and intuitively communicating quantified uncertainty. Methods are demonstrated for two epidemic regions, and are not limited to malaria modeling; the visualization method could be applied to any climate impact.
authors.affiliation: Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford.
authors.forename: D A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: MacLeod
authors.affiliation: 1] School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool [2] NIHR, Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, Liverpool.
authors.forename: A P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Morse
mesh_terms: D002980:Climate; D057231:Climate Change; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D005544:Forecasting; D006801:Humans; D008288:Malaria / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000209:etiology*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D011891:Rain; D012306:Risk; D012621:Seasons; D035501:Uncertainty; D014887:Weather