title: Retinopathy of prematurity risk prediction for infants with birth weight less than 1251 grams.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To predict retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) exam findings among infants with birth weight <1251 g from 32-40 weeks postmenstrual age (PMA).
  
  
  METHODS
  Secondary analysis of 3714 eye exams from 1239 infants.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The likelihood of developing type 1 ROP by 40 weeks PMA varied by gestational age (GA) (P < .001), from 33% for ≤25 weeks, 10% for 26 or 27 weeks, 4% for 28 or 29 weeks, and none for ≥30 weeks. By 40 weeks PMA, 51% with GA ≤27 weeks still needed subsequent exams. Previous exam findings, GA, and PMA were predictive of the development of type 1 ROP (area under the curve, 0.78) or mature retina (area under the curve, 0.85).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This analysis provides the opportunity for development of an ROP approach to estimate resource needs in the neonatal intensive care unit and to facilitate communication with families when planning discharge or transfer.
authors.affiliation: Duke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, NC. Electronic address: alex.kemper@duke.edu.
authors.forename: Alex R
authors.initials: AR
authors.lastname: Kemper
authors.affiliation: Department of Pediatrics, Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, PA.
authors.forename: Kelly C
authors.initials: KC
authors.lastname: Wade
authors.affiliation: Duke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, NC.
authors.forename: Christoph P
authors.initials: CP
authors.lastname: Hornik
authors.affiliation: Center for Preventive Ophthalmology and Biostatistics, Department of Ophthalmology, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
authors.forename: Gui-Shuang
authors.initials: GS
authors.lastname: Ying
authors.affiliation: Division of Pediatric Ophthalmology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
authors.forename: Agnieshka
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Baumritter
authors.affiliation: Division of Pediatric Ophthalmology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.
authors.forename: Graham E
authors.initials: GE
authors.lastname: Quinn
mesh_terms: D003941:Diagnostic Techniques, Ophthalmological; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007231:Infant, Newborn; D019102:Infant, Very Low Birth Weight; D008297:Male; D015997:Neonatal Screening; D011237:Predictive Value of Tests; D011446:Prospective Studies; D012178:Retinopathy of Prematurity / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology*; D018570:Risk Assessment