title: Clinical predictors of risk for atrial fibrillation: implications for diagnosis and monitoring.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  To create a risk score using clinical factors to determine whom to screen and monitor for atrial fibrillation (AF).
  
  
  METHODS
  The AF risk score was developed based on the summed odds ratios (ORs) for AF development of 7 accepted clinical risk factors. The AF risk score is intended to assess the risk of AF similar to how the CHA2DS2-VASc score assesses stroke risk. Seven validated risk factors for AF were used to develop the AF risk score: age, coronary artery disease, diabetes mellitus, sex, heart failure, hypertension, and valvular disease. The AF risk score was tested within a random population sample of the Intermountain Healthcare outpatient database. Outcomes were stratified by AF risk score for OR and Kaplan-Meier analysis.
  
  
  RESULTS
  A total of 100,000 patient records with an index follow-up from January 1, 2002, through December 31, 2007, were selected and followed up for the development of AF through the time of this analysis, May 13, 2013, through September 6, 2013. Mean ± SD follow-up time was 3106±819 days. The ORs of subsequent AF diagnosis of patients with AF risk scores of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 or higher were 3.05, 12.9, 22.8, 34.0, and 48.0, respectively. The area under the curve statistic for the AF risk score was 0.812 (95% CI, 0.805-0.820).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We developed a simple AF risk score made up of common clinical factors that may be useful to possibly select patients for long-term monitoring for AF detection.
authors.affiliation: Clinical Affairs, St Jude Medical Corporation, St. Paul, MN. Electronic address: kbrunner02@sjm.com.
authors.forename: Kyle J
authors.initials: KJ
authors.lastname: Brunner
authors.affiliation: Intermountain Heart Rhythm Specialists, Intermountain Medical Center, Murray, UT.
authors.forename: T Jared
authors.initials: TJ
authors.lastname: Bunch
authors.affiliation: NAMSA, Minneapolis, MN.
authors.forename: Christopher M
authors.initials: CM
authors.lastname: Mullin
authors.affiliation: Intermountain Heart Rhythm Specialists, Intermountain Medical Center, Murray, UT.
authors.forename: Heidi T
authors.initials: HT
authors.lastname: May
authors.affiliation: Intermountain Heart Rhythm Specialists, Intermountain Medical Center, Murray, UT.
authors.forename: Tami L
authors.initials: TL
authors.lastname: Bair
authors.affiliation: Valam Corp, New York, NY.
authors.forename: David W
authors.initials: DW
authors.lastname: Elliot
authors.affiliation: Intermountain Heart Rhythm Specialists, Intermountain Medical Center, Murray, UT.
authors.forename: Jeffrey L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Anderson
authors.affiliation: Clinical Affairs, St Jude Medical Corporation, St. Paul, MN.
authors.forename: Srijoy
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Mahapatra
mesh_terms: D017677:Age Distribution; D000368:Aged; D019540:Area Under Curve; D001281:Atrial Fibrillation / Q000453:epidemiology*; D015897:Comorbidity; D003324:Coronary Artery Disease / Q000453:epidemiology; D003920:Diabetes Mellitus / Q000453:epidemiology; D005260:Female; D006333:Heart Failure / Q000453:epidemiology; D006349:Heart Valve Diseases / Q000453:epidemiology; D006801:Humans; D006973:Hypertension / Q000453:epidemiology; D053208:Kaplan-Meier Estimate; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010351:Patient Discharge / Q000706:statistics & numerical data; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D017678:Sex Distribution; D014481:United States / Q000453:epidemiology