title: Forecasting ESKAPE infections through a time-varying auto-adaptive algorithm using laboratory-based surveillance data.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Mathematical or statistical tools are capable to provide a valid help to improve surveillance systems for healthcare and non-healthcare-associated bacterial infections. The aim of this work is to evaluate the time-varying auto-adaptive (TVA) algorithm-based use of clinical microbiology laboratory database to forecast medically important drug-resistant bacterial infections.
  
  
  METHODS
  Using TVA algorithm, six distinct time series were modelled, each one representing the number of episodes per single 'ESKAPE' (E nterococcus faecium, S taphylococcus aureus, K lebsiella pneumoniae, A cinetobacter baumannii, P seudomonas aeruginosa and E nterobacter species) infecting pathogen, that had occurred monthly between 2002 and 2011 calendar years at the Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore general hospital.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Monthly moving averaged numbers of observed and forecasted ESKAPE infectious episodes were found to show a complete overlapping of their respective smoothed time series curves. Overall good forecast accuracy was observed, with percentages ranging from 82.14% for E. faecium infections to 90.36% for S. aureus infections.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our approach may regularly provide physicians with forecasted bacterial infection rates to alert them about the spread of antibiotic-resistant bacterial species, especially when clinical microbiological results of patients' specimens are delayed.
authors.affiliation: Arkegos International Study Centre, Rome, Italy. fsbba@libero.it.|Advanced Research Centre for Applied Science, Rome, Italy. fsbba@libero.it.
authors.forename: Antonio
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ballarin
authors.affiliation: Institute of Public Health (Section of Hygiene), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Rome, Italy. bposteraro@rm.unicatt.it.
authors.forename: Brunella
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Posteraro
authors.affiliation: Arkegos International Study Centre, Rome, Italy. g.demartis@arkegos.org.
authors.forename: Giuseppe
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Demartis
authors.affiliation: Advanced Research Centre for Applied Science, Rome, Italy. siger21@libero.it.
authors.forename: Simona
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Gervasi
authors.affiliation: Arkegos International Study Centre, Rome, Italy. f.panzarella@arkegos.org.
authors.forename: Fabrizio
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Panzarella
authors.affiliation: Institute of Microbiology, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 00168 Largo F. Vito 1, Rome, Italy. riccardo.torelli@rm.unicatt.it.
authors.forename: Riccardo
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Torelli
authors.affiliation: Institute of Microbiology, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 00168 Largo F. Vito 1, Rome, Italy. francisco.paronisterbini@rm.unicatt.it.
authors.forename: Francesco
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Paroni Sterbini
authors.affiliation: Institute of Microbiology, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 00168 Largo F. Vito 1, Rome, Italy. morandotti@rm.unicatt.it.
authors.forename: Grazia
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Morandotti
authors.affiliation: Clinical Laboratory, Ospedale San Carlo, Rome, Italy. p.posteraro@idi.it.
authors.forename: Patrizia
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Posteraro
authors.affiliation: Institute of Public Health (Section of Hygiene), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Rome, Italy. wricciardi@rm.unicatt.it.
authors.forename: Walter
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Ricciardi
authors.affiliation: IMT Institute for Advanced Studies, Lucca, Italy. krisgerv@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Kristian A
authors.initials: KA
authors.lastname: Gervasi Vidal
authors.affiliation: Institute of Microbiology, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, 00168 Largo F. Vito 1, Rome, Italy. msanguinetti@rm.unicatt.it.
authors.forename: Maurizio
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Sanguinetti
mesh_terms: D000465:Algorithms; D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D001424:Bacterial Infections / Q000188:drug therapy / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000382:microbiology*; D024881:Drug Resistance, Bacterial; D005260:Female; D005544:Forecasting / Q000379:methods; D006090:Gram-Negative Bacteria / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D006094:Gram-Positive Bacteria / Q000302:isolation & purification*; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy / Q000453:epidemiology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011159:Population Surveillance; D013211:Staphylococcus aureus; D013997:Time Factors
chemical_list: D000900:Anti-Bacterial Agents