title: The Effects of Urban Form on Ambient Air Pollution and Public Health Risk: A Case Study in Raleigh, North Carolina.
abstract: Since motor vehicles are a major air pollution source, urban designs that decrease private automobile use could improve air quality and decrease air pollution health risks. Yet, the relationships among urban form, air quality, and health are complex and not fully understood. To explore these relationships, we model the effects of three alternative development scenarios on annual average fine particulate matter (PM2.5 ) concentrations in ambient air and associated health risks from PM2.5 exposure in North Carolina's Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill area. We integrate transportation demand, land-use regression, and health risk assessment models to predict air quality and health impacts for three development scenarios: current conditions, compact development, and sprawling development. Compact development slightly decreases (-0.2%) point estimates of regional annual average PM2.5 concentrations, while sprawling development slightly increases (+1%) concentrations. However, point estimates of health impacts are in opposite directions: compact development increases (+39%) and sprawling development decreases (-33%) PM2.5-attributable mortality. Furthermore, compactness increases local variation in PM2.5 concentrations and increases the severity of local air pollution hotspots. Hence, this research suggests that while compact development may improve air quality from a regional perspective, it may also increase the concentration of PM2.5 in local hotspots and increase population exposure to PM2.5 . Health effects may be magnified if compact neighborhoods and PM2.5 hotspots are spatially co-located. We conclude that compactness alone is an insufficient means of reducing the public health impacts of transportation emissions in automobile-dependent regions. Rather, additional measures are needed to decrease automobile dependence and the health risks of transportation emissions.
authors.affiliation: Gillings School of Global Public Health, Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
authors.forename: Theodore J
authors.initials: TJ
authors.lastname: Mansfield
authors.affiliation: Department of City and Regional Planning, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
authors.forename: Daniel A
authors.initials: DA
authors.lastname: Rodriguez
authors.affiliation: Travel Behavior Modeling Group, Institute for Transportation Research and Education, North Carolina State University, Centennial Campus, Raleigh, NC, USA.
authors.forename: Joseph
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Huegy
authors.affiliation: Gillings School of Global Public Health, Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
authors.forename: Jacqueline MacDonald
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Gibson
mesh_terms: D000397:Air Pollution; D002138:Calibration; D006801:Humans; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D009657:North Carolina; D011634:Public Health; D018570:Risk Assessment; D014504:Urban Health
keywords: Built environment; public health; transportation