title: Validation of a modified clinical risk score to predict cancer-specific survival for stage II colon cancer.
abstract: Many patients with stage II colon cancer will die of their disease despite curative surgery. Therefore, identification of patients at high risk of poor outcome after surgery for stage II colon cancer is desirable. This study aims to validate a clinical risk score to predict cancer-specific survival in patients undergoing surgery for stage II colon cancer. Patients undergoing surgery for stage II colon cancer in 16 hospitals in the West of Scotland between 2001 and 2004 were identified from a prospectively maintained regional clinical audit database. Overall and cancer-specific survival rates up to 5 years were calculated. A total of 871 patients were included. At 5 years, cancer-specific survival was 81.9% and overall survival was 65.6%. On multivariate analysis, age ≥75 years (hazard ratio (HR) 2.11, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.57-2.85; P<0.001) and emergency presentation (HR 1.97, 95% CI 1.43-2.70; P<0.001) were independently associated with cancer-specific survival. Age and mode of presentation HRs were added to form a clinical risk score of 0-2. The cancer-specific survival at 5 years for patients with a cumulative score 0 was 88.7%, 1 was 78.2% and 2 was 65.9%. These results validate a modified simple clinical risk score for patients undergoing surgery for stage II colon cancer. The combination of these two universally documented clinical factors provides a solid foundation for the examination of the impact of additional clinicopathological and treatment factors on overall and cancer-specific survival.
authors.affiliation: University Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow Royal Infirmary, Glasgow, G4 0SF, U.K; West of Scotland Cancer Surveillance Unit, Institute of Health and Wellbeing, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8RZ, U.K.
authors.forename: Raymond
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Oliphant
authors.forename: Paul G
authors.initials: PG
authors.lastname: Horgan
authors.forename: David S
authors.initials: DS
authors.lastname: Morrison
authors.forename: Donald C
authors.initials: DC
authors.lastname: McMillan
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D003110:Colonic Neoplasms / Q000175:diagnosis* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000401:mortality* / Q000601:surgery; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008485:Medical Audit; D008875:Middle Aged; D009367:Neoplasm Staging; D017063:Outcome Assessment, Health Care; D011379:Prognosis; D012042:Registries; D015203:Reproducibility of Results; D012606:Scotland / Q000453:epidemiology
keywords: Clinical risk score; Stage II; colon cancer; survival