title: A new scoring system for spontaneous closure prediction of perimembranous ventricular septal defects in children.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Perimembranous ventricular septal defect (PMVSD) is a congenital heart aberration, which is surgically treated by patch or device closure, but also can heal without operation as spontaneous closure (SC).
  
  
  METHODS
  We analyzed data from 1873 PMVSD patients admitted to our hospital during September 2001 and December 2009, in order to establish a Cox regression model for PMVSD SC probability prediction (derivative cohort). Initial contact age, ventricular septal defect (VSD) diameter, shunt flow, aneurysmal tissue of the ventricular membranous septum (ATVMS) development, associated complications, and left ventricular end-diastolic dimension (LVDD) were analyzed for correlations with SC. The derived scoring system based on the coefficients of the model was developed and applied to another cohort with 382 PMVSD patients to evaluate the validity for SC probability forecast (validation cohort).
  
  
  RESULTS
  Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that SC of PMVSD was associated with age at first contact, defect size, diffuse shunt flow, ATVMS formation, associated complication, as well as increased LVDD, which were used to establish a new scoring system. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of our predictive scaling was 0.831 (95% CI 0.804-0.858, p<0.001) in the derivative cohort. The scoring system also accurately predicted SC with an area under the ROC curve of 0.863 (95% CI 0.785-0.941, p<0.001) in the validation cohort.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Our scoring system using factors affecting SC can predict the probability of SC in PMVSD patients.
authors.affiliation: Pediatric Heart Center, Xinhua Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200092, China.
authors.forename: Jing
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.affiliation: Pediatric Heart Center, Xinhua Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200092, China.
authors.forename: Kun
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Sun
authors.affiliation: Pediatric Heart Center, Xinhua Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200092, China.
authors.forename: Sun
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Chen
authors.affiliation: Department of Echocardiography, Xinhua Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200092, China.
authors.forename: Liping
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Yao
authors.affiliation: Department of Pediatric Cardiology, Shanghai Children's Medical Center, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200127, China.
authors.forename: Yuqi
authors.initials: Y
authors.lastname: Zhang
mesh_terms: D006328:Cardiac Catheterization; D002675:Child, Preschool; D005260:Female; D006345:Heart Septal Defects, Ventricular / Q000503:physiopathology / Q000628:therapy*; D006352:Heart Ventricles / Q000503:physiopathology*; D006801:Humans; D007223:Infant; D008297:Male; D011379:Prognosis; D018570:Risk Assessment; D055989:Septal Occluder Device; D016896:Treatment Outcome