title: Quantifying stochastic introgression processes in random environments with hazard rates.
abstract: Introgression is the permanent incorporation of genes from the genome of one population into another. Previous studies have found that stochasticity in number of offspring, hybridisation, and environment are important aspects of introgression risk, but these factors have been studied separately. In this paper we extend the use of the hazard rate which we previously used to study effects of demographic stochasticity with repeated invasion attempts, to incorporate temporal environmental stochasticity. We find that introgression risk varies much in time, and in some periods it can be much enhanced in such environments. Furthermore, effects of plant life history parameters, such as flowering and survival probabilities, on hazard rates depend on characteristics of the environmental variation.
authors.affiliation: Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, P.O. Box 9518, Leiden 2300 RA, The Netherlands.
authors.forename: Atiyo
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ghosh
authors.affiliation: Center of Mathematics, University of Minho, Campus de Gualtar, 4710-057 Braga, Portugal.
authors.forename: Maria Conceição
authors.initials: MC
authors.lastname: Serra
authors.affiliation: Institute of Environmental Sciences (CML), Leiden University, P.O. Box 9518, Leiden 2300 RA, The Netherlands. Electronic address: p.haccou@luc.leidenuniv.nl.
authors.forename: Patsy
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Haccou
keywords: Branching process; Environmental risk assessment; Invasion; Random environment; Transgene