title: Spatially complex land change: The Indirect effect of Brazil's agricultural sector on land use in Amazonia.
abstract: Soybean farming has brought economic development to parts of South America, as well as environmental hopes and concerns. A substantial hope resides in the decoupling of Brazil's agricultural sector from deforestation in the Amazon region, in which case expansive agriculture need not imply forest degradation. However, concerns have also been voiced about the potential indirect effects of agriculture. This article addresses these indirect effects forthe case of the Brazilian Amazon since 2002. Our work finds that as much as thirty-two percent of deforestation, or the loss of more than 30,000 km2of Amazon forest, is attributable, indirectly, to Brazil's soybean sector. However, we also observe that the magnitude of the indirect impact of the agriculture sector on forest loss in the Amazon has declined markedly since 2006. We also find a shift in the underlying causes of indirect land use change in the Amazon, and suggest that land appreciation in agricultural regions has supplanted farm expansions as a source of indirect land use change. Our results are broadly congruent with recent work recognizing the success of policy changes in mitigating the impact of soybean expansion on forest loss in the Amazon. However, they also caution that the soybean sector may continue to incentivize land clearings through its impact on regional land markets.
authors.affiliation: Population Studies and Training Center, Institute for the Study of Environment and Society, Brown University, United States.
authors.forename: Peter D
authors.initials: PD
authors.lastname: Richards
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography and Center for Latin American Studies, University of Florida, United States.
authors.forename: Robert T
authors.initials: RT
authors.lastname: Walker
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, University of Texas, United States.
authors.forename: Eugenio Y
authors.initials: EY
authors.lastname: Arima
keywords: Agriculture; Amazon; Brazil; Deforestation; Indirect land use change