title: Analyzing seasonal patterns of wildfire exposure factors in Sardinia, Italy.
abstract: In this paper, we applied landscape scale wildfire simulation modeling to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity in the island of Sardinia (Italy). We also performed wildfire exposure analysis for selected highly valued resources on the island to identify areas characterized by high risk. We observed substantial variation in burn probability, fire size, and flame length among time periods within the fire season, which starts in early June and ends in late September. Peak burn probability and flame length were observed in late July. We found that patterns of wildfire likelihood and intensity were mainly related to spatiotemporal variation in ignition locations, fuel moisture, and wind vectors. Our modeling approach allowed consideration of historical patterns of winds, ignition locations, and live and dead fuel moisture on fire exposure factors. The methodology proposed can be useful for analyzing potential wildfire risk and effects at landscape scale, evaluating historical changes and future trends in wildfire exposure, as well as for addressing and informing fuel management and risk mitigation issues.
authors.affiliation: Department of Science for Nature and Environmental Resources (DIPNET), University of Sassari, Via De Nicola 9, 07100, Sassari, Italy, miksalis@uniss.it.
authors.forename: Michele
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Salis
authors.forename: Alan A
authors.initials: AA
authors.lastname: Ager
authors.forename: Fermin J
authors.initials: FJ
authors.lastname: Alcasena
authors.forename: Bachisio
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Arca
authors.forename: Mark A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Finney
authors.forename: Grazia
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Pellizzaro
authors.forename: Donatella
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Spano
mesh_terms: D003247:Conservation of Natural Resources; D004784:Environmental Monitoring; D005390:Fires / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D006801:Humans; D007558:Italy; D011336:Probability; D018570:Risk Assessment / Q000379:methods; D012621:Seasons; D014919:Wind