title: Short term adherence tool predicts failure on second line protease inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy: an observational cohort study.
abstract: BACKGROUND
  Most patients who experience virologic failure (VF) on second line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low-middle income countries fail due to poor adherence rather than antiretroviral resistance. A simple adherence tool designed to detect VF would conserve resources by rationally limiting need for viral load (VL) testing and, in those countries with access to third line ART, the need for resistance testing.
  
  
  METHODS
  We conducted an observational cohort study of patients who initiated second line ART at a clinic in Kwazulu-Natal, South Africa. Using clinical and pharmacy refill data extracted from the clinic's electronic database, we determined risk factors for VF. Three different methods of calculating short term pharmacy refill adherence were evaluated and compared with long term adherence since second line initiation. We also explored the ability of differing durations of short term pharmacy refill to predict VF on second line ART.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We included 274 patients with a median follow up of 27 months on second line ART. VF ranged between 3% and 16% within each six month interval after initiating second line ART. 243 patients with at least one VL after 4 months on second line were analysed in the statistical analysis. Pharmacy refill adherence assessed over shorter periods (4 to 6 months) predicted virologic suppression as well as pharmacy refill assessed over longer periods. The risk of VF fell 73% with each 10% increase in adherence measured from pharmacy refills over a 4 month period. Low CD4 count at second line ART initiation was a significant independent risk factor for VF.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Patients identified as poorly adherent by short term pharmacy refill are at risk for VF on second line ART. This pragmatic adherence tool could assist in identifying patients who require adherence interventions, and help rationalize use of VL monitoring and resistance testing among patients on second line ART.
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa. richardcourt@mweb.co.za.
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Court
authors.affiliation: Division of Clinical Pharmacology, Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa. rory.leisegang@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Rory
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Leisegang
authors.affiliation: Division of Clinical Pharmacology, Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa. a.stewart@uct.ac.za.
authors.forename: Annemie
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Stewart
authors.affiliation: Infectious diseases unit, Nelson Mandela School of Medicine, University of Kwazulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa. henrysunpath@yebo.co.za.
authors.forename: Henry
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Sunpath
authors.affiliation: Department of Medicine, Albert Einstein College of Medicine, Bronx, New York, USA. ramurphy@gmail.com.|Doctors Without Borders, New York, USA. ramurphy@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Richard
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Murphy
authors.affiliation: St. Vincent Hospital, University of Evansville, Indianapolis, Indiana, USA. plwinternheimer@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Philip
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Winternheimer
authors.affiliation: Nelson Mandela School of Medicine, University of Kwazulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa. docma18@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Mashuda
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ally
authors.affiliation: Division of Clinical Pharmacology, Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa. gary.maartens@uct.ac.za.
authors.forename: Gary
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: Maartens
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000554:Ambulatory Care Facilities; D019380:Anti-HIV Agents / Q000627:therapeutic use; D015331:Cohort Studies; D024882:Drug Resistance, Viral; D005260:Female; D015658:HIV Infections / Q000188:drug therapy*; D017320:HIV Protease Inhibitors / Q000627:therapeutic use*; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D055118:Medication Adherence; D012307:Risk Factors; D013019:South Africa; D017211:Treatment Failure; D019562:Viral Load
chemical_list: D019380:Anti-HIV Agents; D017320:HIV Protease Inhibitors