title: Estimating diabetes prevalence in Turkey in 2025 with and without possible interventions to reduce obesity and smoking prevalence, using a modelling approach.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The purpose of this study is to estimate the prevalence and the number of people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) in 2025 in Turkey and to evaluate the impact of possible policy options on T2DM prevalence.
  
  
  METHODS
  We developed a model to predict future prevalence of T2DM using trend data for adults aged 25-74 in Turkey from 1997 to 2025. The model integrates population, obesity and smoking trends to estimate the future T2DM prevalence using a Markov approach.
  
  
  RESULTS
  T2DM prevalence was 7.5% (95% CI: 6.0-9.0%) in 1997 increasing to 16.2% (95% CI: 15.5-21.1%) in 2010. The forecasted prevalence for 2025 was 31.5% (28.6% in men and 35.1% in women). If obesity prevalence declines by 10% and smoking decreases by 20% in 10 years from 2010, a 10% relative reduction in diabetes prevalence (1,655,213 individuals) could be achieved by 2025.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  Diabetes burden is now a significant public health challenge, and our model predicts that its burden will increase significantly over the next two decades. Tackling obesity and other diabetes risk factors needs urgent action.
authors.affiliation: Department of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine, Katip Celebi University, Izmir, Turkey, drmelihkaan@hotmail.com.
authors.forename: Kaan
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Sözmen
authors.forename: Belgin
authors.initials: B
authors.lastname: Unal
authors.forename: Simon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Capewell
authors.forename: Julia
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Critchley
authors.forename: Martin
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: O'Flaherty
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D003924:Diabetes Mellitus, Type 2 / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000401:mortality; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008390:Markov Chains; D008875:Middle Aged; D009765:Obesity / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000517:prevention & control; D015995:Prevalence; D012307:Risk Factors; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology*; D000074606:Smoking Prevention; D014421:Turkey / Q000453:epidemiology