title: The optimal number of surveys when detectability varies.
abstract: The survey of plant and animal populations is central to undertaking field ecology. However, detection is imperfect, so the absence of a species cannot be determined with certainty. Methods developed to account for imperfect detectability during surveys do not yet account for stochastic variation in detectability over time or space. When each survey entails a fixed cost that is not spent searching (e.g., time required to travel to the site), stochastic detection rates result in a trade-off between the number of surveys and the length of each survey when surveying a single site. We present a model that addresses this trade-off and use it to determine the number of surveys that: 1) maximizes the expected probability of detection over the entire survey period; and 2) is most likely to achieve a minimally-acceptable probability of detection. We illustrate the applicability of our approach using three practical examples (minimum survey effort protocols, number of frog surveys per season, and number of quadrats per site to detect a plant species) and test our model's predictions using data from experimental plant surveys. We find that when maximizing the expected probability of detection, the optimal survey design is most sensitive to the coefficient of variation in the rate of detection and the ratio of the search budget to the travel cost. When maximizing the likelihood of achieving a particular probability of detection, the optimal survey design is most sensitive to the required probability of detection, the expected number of detections if the budget were spent only on searching, and the expected number of detections that are missed due to travel costs. We find that accounting for stochasticity in detection rates is likely to be particularly important for designing surveys when detection rates are low. Our model provides a framework to do this.
authors.affiliation: Laboratoire de modélisation, CNRS-UMR Écologie des Forêts de Guyane, Kourou, French Guiana; School of Botany, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
authors.forename: Alana L
authors.initials: AL
authors.lastname: Moore
authors.affiliation: School of Botany, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
authors.forename: Michael A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: McCarthy
authors.affiliation: School of Botany, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia.
authors.forename: Kirsten M
authors.initials: KM
authors.lastname: Parris
authors.affiliation: Australian Research Centre for Urban Ecology, Royal Botanic Gardens Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria, Australia; School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
authors.forename: Joslin L
authors.initials: JL
authors.lastname: Moore
mesh_terms: D000818:Animals; D003625:Data Collection / Q000379:methods*; D015233:Models, Statistical; D010944:Plants; D011156:Population Density; D013269:Stochastic Processes