title: Opposite trends in the consumption of manufactured and roll-your-own cigarettes in Spain (1991-2020).
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  The aim of this study is to describe trends in the consumption of manufactured and roll-your-own cigarettes between 1991 and 2012 in Spain, and to project these trends up to 2020.
  
  
  METHODS
  We estimated daily consumption per capita during 1991-2012 using data on sales of manufactured cigarettes (20-packs) and rolling tobacco (kg) from the Tobacco Market Commission, and using data of the Spanish adult population from the National Statistics Institute. We considered different weights (0.5, 0.8 and 1 g) to compute the number of rolled cigarettes per capita. We computed the annual per cent of change and assessed possible changes in trends using joinpoint regression, and projected the consumption up to 2020 using Bayesian methods.
  
  
  RESULTS
  Daily consumption per capita of manufactured cigarettes decreased on average by 3.0% per year in 1991-2012, from 7.6 to 3.8 units, with three trend changes. However, daily consumption per capita of roll-your-own cigarettes increased on average by 14.1% per year, from 0.07 to 0.92 units of 0.5 g, with unchanged trends. Together, daily consumption per capita decreased between 2.9% and 2.5%, depending on the weight of the roll-your-own cigarettes. Projections up to 2020 indicate a decrease of manufactured cigarettes (1.75 units per capita) but an increase of roll-your-own cigarettes (1.25 units per capita).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  While the consumption per capita of manufactured cigarettes has decreased in the past years in Spain, the consumption of roll-your-own cigarettes has increased at an annual rate around 14% over the past years. Whereas a net decrease in cigarette consumption is expected in the future, use of roll-your-own cigarettes will continue to increase.
authors.affiliation: Tobacco Control Unit, Cancer Prevention and Control Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology-ICO, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain Cancer Control and Prevention Group, Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain Department of Clinical Sciences, School of Medicine, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Marcela
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Fu
authors.affiliation: Tobacco Control Unit, Cancer Prevention and Control Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology-ICO, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain Cancer Control and Prevention Group, Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain Biostatistics Unit, Department of Basic Sciences, Universitat Internacional de Catalunya, Sant Cugat del Vallès, Barcelona, Spain Public Health Advocacy Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
authors.forename: Jose M
authors.initials: JM
authors.lastname: Martínez-Sánchez
authors.affiliation: Cancer Control and Prevention Group, Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain Department of Clinical Sciences, School of Medicine, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain Cancer Registry of Catalonia, Plan for Oncology of the Catalan Government, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Ramon
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Clèries
authors.affiliation: Public Health Agency of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain Biomedical Research Networking Centre of Public Health and Epidemiology-CIBERESP, Barcelona, Spain Biomedical Research Institute Sant Pau, Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Joan R
authors.initials: JR
authors.lastname: Villalbí
authors.affiliation: Public Health Advocacy Institute, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
authors.forename: Richard A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Daynard
authors.affiliation: Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences, Center for Global Tobacco Control, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
authors.forename: Gregory N
authors.initials: GN
authors.lastname: Connolly
authors.affiliation: Tobacco Control Unit, Cancer Prevention and Control Programme, Catalan Institute of Oncology-ICO, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain Cancer Control and Prevention Group, Bellvitge Biomedical Research Institute-IDIBELL, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Barcelona, Spain Department of Clinical Sciences, School of Medicine, Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
authors.forename: Esteve
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Fernández
mesh_terms: D001499:Bayes Theorem; D003132:Commerce; D006801:Humans; D012907:Smoking / Q000191:economics / Q000639:trends*; D013030:Spain; D062789:Tobacco Products / Q000191:economics
keywords: PUBLIC HEALTH