title: Epidemiological and viral genomic sequence analysis of the 2014 ebola outbreak reveals clustered transmission.
abstract: Using Ebolavirus genomic and epidemiological data, we conducted the first joint analysis in which both data types were used to fit dynamic transmission models for an ongoing outbreak. Our results indicate that transmission is clustered, highlighting a potential bias in medical demand forecasts, and provide the first empirical estimate of underreporting.
authors.affiliation: Santa Fe Institute, New Mexico.
authors.forename: Samuel V
authors.initials: SV
authors.lastname: Scarpino
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut Department of Microbiology, Biomedical Sciences Institute, University of São Paulo, Brazil.
authors.forename: Atila
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Iamarino
authors.affiliation: Yale Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut.
authors.forename: Chad
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Wells
authors.affiliation: Yale Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut.
authors.forename: Dan
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Yamin
authors.affiliation: Yale Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut.
authors.forename: Martial
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Ndeffo-Mbah
authors.affiliation: Yale Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis.
authors.forename: Natasha S
authors.initials: NS
authors.lastname: Wenzel
authors.affiliation: Department of Integrative Biology, The University of Texas at Austin.
authors.forename: Spencer J
authors.initials: SJ
authors.lastname: Fox
authors.affiliation: Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, Monrovia, Liberia.
authors.forename: Tolbert
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Nyenswah
authors.affiliation: Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut Section of Infectious Diseases, Yale University School of Medicine.
authors.forename: Frederick L
authors.initials: FL
authors.lastname: Altice
authors.affiliation: Yale Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut Program in Computational Biology and Bioinformatics Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut.
authors.forename: Alison P
authors.initials: AP
authors.lastname: Galvani
authors.affiliation: Santa Fe Institute, New Mexico Department of Integrative Biology, The University of Texas at Austin.
authors.forename: Lauren Ancel
authors.initials: LA
authors.lastname: Meyers
authors.affiliation: Department of Biostatistics, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut Program in Computational Biology and Bioinformatics Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut.
authors.forename: Jeffrey P
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Townsend
mesh_terms: D016000:Cluster Analysis; D004196:Disease Outbreaks; D029043:Ebolavirus / Q000145:classification* / Q000235:genetics* / Q000302:isolation & purification; D016679:Genome, Viral; D005838:Genotype; D019142:Hemorrhagic Fever, Ebola / Q000635:transmission* / Q000821:virology*; D006801:Humans; D017421:Sequence Analysis
keywords: Ebola; West Africa; clustering; epidemiology; genome sequencing