title: The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth.
abstract: We assess quantitatively the effect of exogenous reductions in fertility on output per capita. Our simulation model allows for effects that run through schooling, the size and age structure of the population, capital accumulation, parental time input into child-rearing, and crowding of fixed natural resources. The model is parameterized using a combination of microeconomic estimates, data on demographics and natural resource income in developing countries, and standard components of quantitative macroeconomic theory. We apply the model to examine the effect of a change in fertility from the UN medium-variant to the UN low-variant projection, using Nigerian vital rates as a baseline. For a base case set of parameters, we find that such a change would raise output per capita by 5.6 percent at a horizon of 20 years, and by 11.9 percent at a horizon of 50 years.
authors.affiliation: Williams College and Harvard Kennedy School.
authors.forename: Quamrul H
authors.initials: QH
authors.lastname: Ashraf
authors.affiliation: Brown University and NBER.
authors.forename: David N
authors.initials: DN
authors.lastname: Weil
authors.affiliation: University of South Florida.
authors.forename: Joshua
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Wilde
keywords: Age structure; Capital accumulation; Child quality; Fertility; Income per capita; Labor force participation; Natural resources; Population size; Worker experience