title: A systems life cycle approach to managing the radiology profession: an Australian perspective.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Although the medical system has expanded considerably over the past two decades in almost all countries, so too has the demand for health care. The radiology specialisation may be an early system indicator, being especially sensitive to changes in supply and demand in both rural and urban environments. The question is whether the new policies of increasing the number of radiologists can be a proper long-term solution for the imbalance of workforce supply and demand or not.
  
  
  METHODS
  Using system dynamics modelling, we present our integrated descriptive models for the supply and demand of Australian radiologists to find the actual gap. Followed by this, we pose a prescriptive model for the supply in order to lessen the identified imbalance between supply and demand. Our system dynamics models compare the demand and supply of Australian radiologists over 40 years between 2010 and 2050.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The descriptive model shows that even if the radiology training program grows at a higher rate than the medical training growth rate and its own historical growth, the system will never be able to meet demand. The prescriptive model also indicates that although changing some influential factors (e.g the intake rate) reduces the level of imbalance, the system will still stay unstable during the study period.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We posit that Australia may need to design a new system of radiology provision to meet future demands for high-quality medical radiation services. We also suggest some strategies, such as greater development of radiographers' role, are critical for enabling sustainable change over time. What is known about the topic? Long-term workforce planning for medical services at the national level has been very challenging for policy makers of the 21st century. The current demographic imbalance in the supply and demand of the Australian radiologist workforce makes it difficult to plan the effects of extra inflow of radiology students over time.
authors.affiliation: Complex Systems Research Group, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and IT, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia. Email:.
authors.forename: Seyedamir Tavakoli
authors.initials: ST
authors.lastname: Taba
authors.affiliation: Complex Systems Research Group, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and IT, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia. Email:.
authors.forename: Simon Reay
authors.initials: SR
authors.lastname: Atkinson
authors.affiliation: Medical Imaging Optimisation and Perception Group (MIOPeG), Faculty of Health Sciences, Brain Mind Research Institute, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2141, Australia. Email.
authors.forename: Sarah
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Lewis
authors.affiliation: Complex Systems Research Group, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and IT, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia. Email:.
authors.forename: Kon Shing Kenneth
authors.initials: KSK
authors.lastname: Chung
authors.affiliation: Complex Systems Research Group, School of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and IT, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia. Email:.
authors.forename: Liaquat
authors.initials: L
authors.lastname: Hossain
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D001315:Australia; D005260:Female; D006301:Health Services Needs and Demand; D006801:Humans; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D010559:Personnel Management; D011871:Radiology; D013598:Systems Theory; D000078329:Workforce