title: Matching species traits to projected threats and opportunities from climate change.
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  Climate change can lead to decreased climatic suitability within species' distributions, increased fragmentation of climatically suitable space, and/or emergence of newly suitable areas outside present distributions. Each of these extrinsic threats and opportunities potentially interacts with specific intrinsic traits of species, yet this specificity is seldom considered in risk assessments. We present an analytical framework for examining projections of climate change-induced threats and opportunities with reference to traits that are likely to mediate species' responses, and illustrate the applicability of the framework.
  
  
  METHODS
  Sub-Saharan Africa.
  
  
  METHODS
  We applied the framework to 195 sub-Saharan African amphibians with both available bioclimatic envelope model projections for the mid-21st century and trait data. Excluded were 500 narrow-ranging species mainly from montane areas. For each of projected losses, increased fragmentation and gains of climate space, we selected potential response-mediating traits and examined the spatial overlap with vulnerability due to these traits. We examined the overlap for all species, and individually for groups of species with different combinations of threats and opportunities.
  
  
  RESULTS
  In the Congo Basin and arid Southern Africa, projected losses for wide-ranging amphibians were compounded by sensitivity to climatic variation, and expected gains were precluded by poor dispersal ability. The spatial overlap between exposure and vulnerability was more pronounced for species projected to have their climate space contractingin situor shifting to distant geographical areas. Our results exclude the potential exposure of narrow-ranging species to shrinking climates in the African tropical mountains.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  We illustrate the application of a framework combining spatial projections of climate change exposure with traits that are likely to mediate species' responses. Although the proposed framework carries several assumptions that require further scrutiny, its application adds a degree of realism to familiar assessments that consider all species to be equally affected by climate change-induced threats and opportunities.
authors.affiliation: Department of Biogeography and Global Change, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC Madrid, 28006, Spain ; Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen Copenhagen, 2100, Denmark ; 'Rui Nabeiro' Biodiversity Chair, University of Évora, CIBIO Évora, 7000, Portugal.
authors.forename: Raquel A
authors.initials: RA
authors.lastname: Garcia
authors.affiliation: Department of Biogeography and Global Change, National Museum of Natural Sciences, CSIC Madrid, 28006, Spain ; Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen Copenhagen, 2100, Denmark ; 'Rui Nabeiro' Biodiversity Chair, University of Évora, CIBIO Évora, 7000, Portugal ; Imperial College London Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, Berkshire, UK.
authors.forename: Miguel B
authors.initials: MB
authors.lastname: Araújo
authors.affiliation: Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen Copenhagen, 2100, Denmark ; WWF US Conservation Science Program Washington, DC, USA ; United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK.
authors.forename: Neil D
authors.initials: ND
authors.lastname: Burgess
authors.affiliation: Global Species Programme, International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK ; Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand Johannesburg, 2050, South Africa.
authors.forename: Wendy B
authors.initials: WB
authors.lastname: Foden
authors.affiliation: Museum für Naturkunde, Leibniz Institute for Research on Evolution and Biodiversity Berlin, 10115, Germany.
authors.forename: Alexander
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Gutsche
authors.affiliation: Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen Copenhagen, 2100, Denmark ; Imperial College London Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot, Berkshire, UK.
authors.forename: Carsten
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Rahbek
authors.affiliation: Metapopulation Research Group, Department of Biosciences, University of Helsinki Helsinki, FIN-00014, Finland.
authors.forename: Mar
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Cabeza
keywords: Africa; amphibian; bioclimatic envelope model; climate change exposure; dispersal; plasticity; reproductive output; trait; vulnerability