title: Financial analysis of brucellosis control for small-scale goat farming in the Bajío region, Mexico.
abstract: Brucellosis is an endemic disease in small-scale goat husbandry systems in Mexico. It is a zoonosis and the economic consequences can be large, although estimates are not available for the Mexican goat sector. Our objective was to conduct a financial analysis of brucellosis control in a prominent dairy goat production area of the Bajío region, Mexico. We used three models: (1) a brucellosis transmission model at village flock level (n=1000 head), (2) a flock growth model at smallholder flock level (n=23 head) using output of model 1 and (3) cost-benefit analysis of several brucellosis control scenarios based on output of model 2. Scenarios consisted of test-and-slaughter or vaccination or a combination of both compared to the base situation (no control). The average net present values (NPV) of using vaccination over a 5-year period was 3.8 US$ (90% CI: 1.3-6.6) and 20 US$ (90% CI: 11.3-28.6) over a 10-year period per goat. The average benefit-cost ratios over a 5-year period and 10-year period were 4.3 US$ (90% CI: 2.2-6.9) and 12.3 US$ (90% CI: 7.5-17.3) per goat, respectively. For the total dairy goat population (38,462 head) of the study area (the Bajío of Jalisco and Michoacán) the NPV's over a 5-year and 10-year period were 0.15 million US$ and 0.8 million US$. However, brucellosis prevalence was predicted to remain relatively high at about 12%. Control scenarios with test-and-slaughter predicted to reduce brucellosis prevalence to less than 3%, but this produced a negative NPV over a 5-year period ranging from -31.6 to -11.1 US$ and from -31.1 to 7.5 US$ over a 10-year period. A brucellosis control campaign based on vaccination with full coverage is economically profitable for the goat dairy sector of the region although smallholders would need financial support in case test-and-slaughter is applied to reduce the prevalence more quickly.
authors.affiliation: Animal Production Systems Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, the Netherlands; Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH, Wageningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: oseguera.david@gmail.com.
authors.forename: David
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Oseguera Montiel
authors.affiliation: Production and Population Health, The Royal Veterinary College, Hawkshead Lane, North Mymms, Hatfield, Herts AL9 7TA, UK. Electronic address: mbruce@rvc.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Mieghan
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Bruce
authors.affiliation: Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH, Wageningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: klaas.frankena@wur.nl.
authors.forename: Klaas
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Frankena
authors.affiliation: Animal Production Systems Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: henk.udo@wur.nl.
authors.forename: Henk
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Udo
authors.affiliation: Animal Production Systems Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 338, 6700 AH Wageningen, the Netherlands. Electronic address: akke.vanderzijpp@wur.nl.
authors.forename: Akke
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: van der Zijpp
authors.affiliation: Production and Population Health, The Royal Veterinary College, Hawkshead Lane, North Mymms, Hatfield, Herts AL9 7TA, UK. Electronic address: jrushton@rvc.ac.uk.
authors.forename: Jonathan
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Rushton
mesh_terms: D000822:Animal Husbandry / Q000191:economics* / Q000379:methods; D000818:Animals; D001428:Bacterial Vaccines / Q000191:economics; D002006:Brucellosis / Q000191:economics / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control / Q000635:transmission / Q000662:veterinary*; D003140:Communicable Disease Control / Q000191:economics / Q000379:methods; D003198:Computer Simulation; D003362:Cost-Benefit Analysis; D015511:Goat Diseases / Q000191:economics* / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000635:transmission; D006041:Goats; D008800:Mexico / Q000453:epidemiology; D014611:Vaccination / Q000662:veterinary
chemical_list: D001428:Bacterial Vaccines
keywords: Animal health economics; Brucella melitensis; Goat dairy production; Goat husbandry; Latin America; Smallholders; Zoonoses