title: USA endometrial cancer projections to 2030: should we be concerned?
abstract: OBJECTIVE
  As the incidence of endometrial cancer (EC) increased considerably since 2007, this study aimed to project the burden of EC to the year 2030.
  
  
  METHODS
  Multivariate linear regression was used to project EC incidence by modeling trends in EC incidence from 1990 to 2013, while accounting for temporal changes in obesity, hysterectomy and smoking.
  
  
  RESULTS
  The best-fitting model predicting EC rates included a time effect plus effects for hysterectomy (12-year lag), severe obesity (3-year lag) and smoking (9-year lag). The best-fitting model projected an increase to 42.13 EC cases per 100,000 by the year 2030, a 55% increase over 2010 EC rates.
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  The projected increase of EC over next 16 years indicates the need for close monitoring of EC trends.
authors.affiliation: Department of OB/GYN & Reproductive Sciences, Magee-Womens Research Institute, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, M240 Scaife Hall, 3550 Terrace St, Pittsburgh, PA 15261, USA.
authors.forename: M Aamir
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Sheikh
authors.forename: Andrew D
authors.initials: AD
authors.lastname: Althouse
authors.forename: Kyle E
authors.initials: KE
authors.lastname: Freese
authors.forename: Sean
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Soisson
authors.forename: Robert P
authors.initials: RP
authors.lastname: Edwards
authors.forename: Sharon
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Welburn
authors.forename: Paniti
authors.initials: P
authors.lastname: Sukumvanich
authors.forename: John
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Comerci
authors.forename: Joseph
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Kelley
authors.forename: Ronald E
authors.initials: RE
authors.lastname: LaPorte
authors.forename: Faina
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Linkov
mesh_terms: D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D016889:Endometrial Neoplasms / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology / Q000601:surgery; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D007044:Hysterectomy / Q000009:adverse effects; D009765:Obesity / Q000150:complications / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology; D012907:Smoking / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology; D014481:United States
keywords: endometrial cancer; future projections; incidence; obesity; prevention