title: Anticipated increase in the number of patients who require dialysis treatment among the aging population of Japan.
abstract: The aging population is anticipated to have a large impact on the number of incident dialysis patients, as the risk of end-stage kidney disease increases with age. This study aimed to examine trends in the sex- and age-specific incidence rates of dialysis between 2008 and 2012, and to assess the impact of population aging on the number of incident dialysis patients over the next decade in Japan. Incidence was calculated using published data and Japan's population statistics. The 2012 incidence was extrapolated, and projected future demographic changes within the Japanese population were used to estimate the number of incident dialysis patients in 2020 and 2025. As a general trend, the sex- and age-specific incidence rates of dialysis decreased gradually between 2008 and 2012, except among men aged ≥80 years. The total number of incident dialysis patients was projected to increase by 12.8% from 36 590 in 2012 to 41 270 in 2025. Greater increases were observed in the oldest age group (≥85 years). In 2025, the number of incident dialysis patients in this group was projected to increase by 92.6% in men and 62.2% in women. This study shows the number of patients who initiate dialysis treatment is projected to increase over the next decade in Japan due to aging of the population. Effective strategies are needed to offset the challenges faced by the aging population, with a particular focus on octogenarians and older, given the notable proportion of patients requiring dialysis treatment in the future.
authors.affiliation: Center for Inter-organ Communication Research, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Science, Niigata, Niigata, Japan.
authors.forename: Minako
authors.identifier: http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1555-7736
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Wakasugi
authors.affiliation: Division of Blood Purification Therapy, Niigata University Medical and Dental Hospital, Niigata, Niigata, Japan.
authors.forename: Junichiro James
authors.initials: JJ
authors.lastname: Kazama
authors.affiliation: Division of Clinical Nephrology and Rheumatology, Niigata University Graduate School of Medical and Dental Science, Niigata, Niigata, Japan.
authors.forename: Ichiei
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Narita
mesh_terms: D000367:Age Factors; D000368:Aged; D000369:Aged, 80 and over; D000375:Aging; D005260:Female; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D007676:Kidney Failure, Chronic / Q000453:epidemiology / Q000628:therapy*; D008297:Male; D006435:Renal Dialysis / Q000706:statistics & numerical data* / Q000639:trends; D012737:Sex Factors
keywords: Aging; Dialysis; Epidemiology; Incidence; Population projection