title: A systematic review and meta-analysis of dengue risk with temperature change.
abstract: Dengue fever (DF) is the most serious mosquito-borne viral disease in the world and is significantly affected by temperature. Although associations between DF and temperatures have been reported repeatedly, conclusions have been inconsistent. Six databases were searched up to 23 March 2014, without language and geographical restrictions. The articles that studied the correlations between temperatures and dengue were selected, and a random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals. Of 1589 identified articles, 137 were reviewed further, with 33 satisfying inclusion criteria. The closest associations were observed between mean temperature from the included studies (23.2-27.7 °C) and DF (OR 35.0% per 1 °C; 95% CI 18.3%-51.6%) positively. Additionally, minimum (18.1-24.2 °C) (29.5% per 1 °C; 20.9%-38.1%) and maximum temperature (28.0-34.5 °C) (28.9%; 10.3%-47.5%) were also associated with increased dengue transmission. The OR of DF incidence increased steeply from 22 °C to 29 °C, suggesting an inflexion of DF risk between these lower and upper limits of DF risk. This discovery is helpful for government decision-makers focused on preventing and controlling dengue in areas with temperatures within this range.
authors.affiliation: First Clinical Medical College, Lanzhou University, No. 1 Donggang West Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China. baizhenggang@126.com.
authors.forename: Jingchun
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Fan
authors.affiliation: University Hospital of Gansu Traditional Chinese Medicine, No. 732 Jiayuguan West Road, Chenguang District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730020, China. wanxia_wei@sina.com.
authors.forename: Wanxia
authors.initials: W
authors.lastname: Wei
authors.affiliation: Key Laboratory of Evidence Based Medicine and Knowledge Translation of Gansu Province, No. 222 Tianshui South Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China. baizhenggang@126.com.
authors.forename: Zhenggang
authors.initials: Z
authors.lastname: Bai
authors.affiliation: Department of Clinical Pharmacy, Gansu Provincial Cancer Hospital, No. 2 Xiaoxihu East Street, Qilihe District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730050, China. fanchl8@sina.com.
authors.forename: Chunling
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Fan
authors.affiliation: Department of Ultrasound, People's Hospital of Gansu Province, No. 204 Donggang West Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China. vivian138lan@163.com.
authors.forename: Shulan
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Li
authors.affiliation: State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, China CDC, No. 155 Changbai Road, Changping District, Beijing 102206, China. liuqiyong@icdc.cn.
authors.forename: Qiyong
authors.initials: Q
authors.lastname: Liu
authors.affiliation: First Clinical Medical College, Lanzhou University, No. 1 Donggang West Road, Chengguan District, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China. kehuyangebm2006@126.com.
authors.forename: Kehu
authors.initials: K
authors.lastname: Yang
mesh_terms: D000330:Aedes / Q000502:physiology; D000818:Animals; D003715:Dengue / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000635:transmission; D006801:Humans; D015994:Incidence; D012307:Risk Factors; D013696:Temperature