title: Modelling influenza A(H1N1) 2009 epidemics using a random network in a distributed computing environment.
abstract: In this paper we propose the use of a random network model for simulating and understanding the epidemics of influenza A(H1N1). The proposed model is used to simulate the transmission process of influenza A(H1N1) in a community region of Venezuela using distributed computing in order to accomplish many realizations of the underlying random process. These large scale epidemic simulations have recently become an important application of high-performance computing. The network model proposed performs better than the traditional epidemic model based on ordinary differential equations since it adjusts better to the irregularity of the real world data. In addition, the network model allows the consideration of many possibilities regarding the spread of influenza at the population level. The results presented here show how well the SEIR model fits the data for the AH1N1 time series despite the irregularity of the data and returns parameter values that are in good agreement with the medical data regarding AH1N1 influenza virus. This versatile network model approach may be applied to the simulation of the transmission dynamics of several epidemics in human networks. In addition, the simulation can provide useful information for the understanding, prediction and control of the transmission of influenza A(H1N1) epidemics.
authors.affiliation: Grupo Matemática Multidisciplinar, Fac. Ingeniería Universidad de los Andes, Venezuela; Centro de Investigaciones en Matemática Aplicada (CIMA), Universidad de los Andes, Venezuela. Electronic address: gcarlos@ula.ve.
authors.forename: Gilberto
authors.initials: G
authors.lastname: González-Parra
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Matemática Multidisciplinar, Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia, Edificio 8G, 2°, 46022 Valencia, Spain.
authors.forename: Rafael-J
authors.initials: RJ
authors.lastname: Villanueva
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Matemática Multidisciplinar, Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia, Edificio 8G, 2°, 46022 Valencia, Spain.
authors.forename: Javier
authors.initials: J
authors.lastname: Ruiz-Baragaño
authors.affiliation: Instituto de Matemática Multidisciplinar, Universitat Politécnica de Valéncia, Edificio 8G, 2°, 46022 Valencia, Spain.
authors.forename: Jose-A
authors.initials: JA
authors.lastname: Moraño
mesh_terms: D004777:Environment; D058872:Epidemics; D006801:Humans; D053118:Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype; D007251:Influenza, Human / Q000453:epidemiology*; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D014687:Venezuela
keywords: AH1N1/09 influenza epidemic; Distributed computing environment; Mathematical model; Random network model