title: Trends in cancer prognosis in a population-based cohort survey: can recent advances in cancer therapy affect the prognosis?
abstract: BACKGROUND
  The aim of the study was to investigate trends in cancer prognosis by examining the relationship between period of diagnosis and probability of death from cancer in a population-based cohort.
  
  
  METHODS
  Within a cohort of Japanese men and women aged 40-69 years and free of prior diagnosis of cancer and cardiovascular disease at baseline, data from 4403 patients diagnosed with cancer between 1990 and 2006 and followed up until 2012 were analyzed using survival regression models to assess the presence of an effect of the period of diagnosis (before 1998 versus after 1998) on the risk of dying from cancer.
  
  
  RESULTS
  We noted a significant decrease in risk of dying from cancer among individuals diagnosed after 1998 with lung cancer (hazard ratio [HR]=0.676 [0.571-0.800]) or colorectal cancer (HR=0.801 [0.661-0.970]). A decrease in the estimated five-year probability of death from cancer was also noted between the first (before 1998) and the second (after 1998) period of diagnosis for lung and colorectal cancers (e.g., 85.4% vs. 73.3% for lung cancer and 44.6% vs. 37.7% for colorectal cancer, respectively, for stage III in men aged 60 at diagnosis).
  
  
  CONCLUSIONS
  This study presented the first scientific evidence of improvement in prognosis for lung and colorectal cancer patients in a population-based cohort in Japan. Our results suggest that recent advances in cancer treatment could have influenced cancer survival differently among lung, colorectal and gastric cancers.
authors.affiliation: Pharmaco-Business Innovation Laboratory, Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Product and Portfolio Strategy, Astellas Pharma Inc., Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Eri
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Kawabata-Shoda
authors.affiliation: Epidemiology and Prevention Division, Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screening, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Hadrien
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Charvat
authors.affiliation: Epidemiology and Prevention Division, Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screening, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Ai
authors.initials: A
authors.lastname: Ikeda
authors.affiliation: Epidemiology and Prevention Division, Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screening, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Manami
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Inoue
authors.affiliation: Epidemiology and Prevention Division, Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screening, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Norie
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Sawada
authors.affiliation: Epidemiology and Prevention Division, Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screening, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Motoki
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Iwasaki
authors.affiliation: Epidemiology and Prevention Division, Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screening, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Shizuka
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Sasazuki
authors.affiliation: Epidemiology and Prevention Division, Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screening, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Taichi
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Shimazu
authors.affiliation: Epidemiology and Prevention Division, Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screening, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Taiki
authors.initials: T
authors.lastname: Yamaji
authors.affiliation: Pharmaco-Business Innovation Laboratory, Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.
authors.forename: Hiromichi
authors.initials: H
authors.lastname: Kimura
authors.affiliation: Pharmaco-Business Innovation Laboratory, Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. Electronic address: masuda@mol.f.u-tokyo.ac.jp.
authors.forename: Sachiko
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Masuda
authors.affiliation: Research Center for Cancer Prevention and Screening, National Cancer Center, Tokyo, Japan. Electronic address: stsugane@ncc.go.jp.
authors.forename: Shoichiro
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Tsugane
mesh_terms: D000328:Adult; D000368:Aged; D015331:Cohort Studies; D015179:Colorectal Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology; D005260:Female; D005500:Follow-Up Studies; D006801:Humans; D007564:Japan / Q000453:epidemiology; D008175:Lung Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology; D008297:Male; D008875:Middle Aged; D011159:Population Surveillance; D011379:Prognosis; D011446:Prospective Studies; D013274:Stomach Neoplasms / Q000453:epidemiology* / Q000473:pathology; D013534:Survival
keywords: Cancer; Population-based cohort; Survival; Trends