title: A critical look at prospective surveillance using a scan statistic.
abstract: The scan statistic is a very popular surveillance technique for purely spatial, purely temporal, and spatial-temporal disease data. It was extended to the prospective surveillance case, and it has been applied quite extensively in this situation. When the usual signal rules, as those implemented in SaTScan(TM) (Boston, MA, USA) software, are used, we show that the scan statistic method is not appropriate for the prospective case. The reason is that it does not adjust properly for the sequential and repeated tests carried out during the surveillance. We demonstrate that the nominal significance level α is not meaningful and there is no relationship between α and the recurrence interval or the average run length (ARL). In some cases, the ARL may be equal to ∞, which makes the method ineffective. This lack of control of the type-I error probability and of the ARL leads us to strongly oppose the use of the scan statistic with the usual signal rules in the prospective context.
authors.affiliation: Departamento de Estatística, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
authors.forename: Thais R
authors.initials: TR
authors.lastname: Correa
authors.forename: Renato M
authors.initials: RM
authors.lastname: Assunção
authors.forename: Marcelo A
authors.initials: MA
authors.lastname: Costa
mesh_terms: D056808:Biostatistics; D003198:Computer Simulation; D062665:Epidemiological Monitoring; D006801:Humans; D015233:Models, Statistical; D011446:Prospective Studies; D062486:Public Health Surveillance / Q000379:methods; D012189:Retrospective Studies; D012984:Software; D013029:Space-Time Clustering
keywords: average run length; p-value; recurrence interval; scan statistic