title: Likelihood-based tree reconstruction on a concatenation of aligned sequence data sets can be statistically inconsistent.
abstract: The reconstruction of a species tree from genomic data faces a double hurdle. First, the (gene) tree describing the evolution of each gene may differ from the species tree, for instance, due to incomplete lineage sorting. Second, the aligned genetic sequences at the leaves of each gene tree provide merely an imperfect estimate of the topology of the gene tree. In this note, we demonstrate formally that a basic statistical problem arises if one tries to avoid accounting for these two processes and analyses the genetic data directly via a concatenation approach. More precisely, we show that, under the multispecies coalescent with a standard site substitution model, maximum likelihood estimation on sequence data that has been concatenated across genes and performed under the incorrect assumption that all sites have evolved independently and identically on a fixed tree is a statistically inconsistent estimator of the species tree. Our results provide a formal justification of simulation results described of Kubatko and Degnan (2007) and others, and complements recent theoretical results by DeGIorgio and Degnan (2010) and Chifman and Kubtako (2014).
authors.affiliation: Department of Mathematics, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA.
authors.forename: Sebastien
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Roch
authors.affiliation: MS Biomathematics Research Centre, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand. Electronic address: mathmomike@gmail.com.
authors.forename: Mike
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Steel
keywords: Consistency; Incomplete lineage sorting; Maximum likelihood; Phylogenetic reconstruction