title: Oil spill contamination probability in the southeastern Levantine basin.
abstract: Recent gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean Sea led to multiple operations with substantial economic interest, and with them there is a risk of oil spills and their potential environmental impacts. To examine the potential spatial distribution of this threat, we created seasonal maps of the probability of oil spill pollution reaching an area in the Israeli coastal and exclusive economic zones, given knowledge of its initial sources. We performed simulations of virtual oil spills using realistic atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The resulting maps show dominance of the alongshore northerly current, which causes the high probability areas to be stretched parallel to the coast, increasing contamination probability downstream of source points. The seasonal westerly wind forcing determines how wide the high probability areas are, and may also restrict these to a small coastal region near source points. Seasonal variability in probability distribution, oil state, and pollution time is also discussed.
authors.affiliation: Israel Oceanographic and Limnological Research, 31080 Haifa, Israel. Electronic address: ron@ocean.org.il.
authors.forename: Ron
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Goldman
authors.affiliation: Israel Oceanographic and Limnological Research, 31080 Haifa, Israel. Electronic address: elib@ocean.org.il.
authors.forename: Eli
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Biton
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus, Jerusalem 91905, Israel. Electronic address: eran.brokovich@mail.huji.ac.il.
authors.forename: Eran
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Brokovich
authors.affiliation: The School of Biological Sciences, ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED), The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. Electronic address: s.kark@uq.edu.au.
authors.forename: Salit
authors.initials: S
authors.lastname: Kark
authors.affiliation: Department of Geography, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus, Jerusalem 91905, Israel; School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management, Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, The University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. Electronic address: n.levin@uq.edu.au.
authors.forename: Noam
authors.initials: N
authors.lastname: Levin
mesh_terms: D003198:Computer Simulation; D004784:Environmental Monitoring / Q000379:methods* / Q000706:statistics & numerical data*; D007557:Israel; D008522:Mediterranean Sea; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D059392:Petroleum Pollution / Q000032:analysis* / Q000517:prevention & control; D011336:Probability; D012621:Seasons; D014887:Weather
keywords: Eastern Mediterranean Sea; Oil spill; Pollution; Probability; Simulation