title: Molecular proxies for climate maladaptation in a long-lived tree (Pinus pinaster Aiton, Pinaceae).
abstract: Understanding adaptive genetic responses to climate change is a main challenge for preserving biological diversity. Successful predictive models for climate-driven range shifts of species depend on the integration of information on adaptation, including that derived from genomic studies. Long-lived forest trees can experience substantial environmental change across generations, which results in a much more prominent adaptation lag than in annual species. Here, we show that candidate-gene SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) can be used as predictors of maladaptation to climate in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton), an outcrossing long-lived keystone tree. A set of 18 SNPs potentially associated with climate, 5 of them involving amino acid-changing variants, were retained after performing logistic regression, latent factor mixed models, and Bayesian analyses of SNP-climate correlations. These relationships identified temperature as an important adaptive driver in maritime pine and highlighted that selective forces are operating differentially in geographically discrete gene pools. The frequency of the locally advantageous alleles at these selected loci was strongly correlated with survival in a common garden under extreme (hot and dry) climate conditions, which suggests that candidate-gene SNPs can be used to forecast the likely destiny of natural forest ecosystems under climate change scenarios. Differential levels of forest decline are anticipated for distinct maritime pine gene pools. Geographically defined molecular proxies for climate adaptation will thus critically enhance the predictive power of range-shift models and help establish mitigation measures for long-lived keystone forest trees in the face of impending climate change.
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Genetics, Forest Research Centre, Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria, E-28040 Madrid, Spain Department of Evolutionary Ecology, Institute of Ecology, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, AP 70-275 México City, Mexico.
authors.forename: Juan-Pablo
authors.initials: JP
authors.lastname: Jaramillo-Correa
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Genetics, Forest Research Centre, Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria, E-28040 Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: Isabel
authors.initials: I
authors.lastname: Rodríguez-Quilón
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Genetics, Forest Research Centre, Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria, E-28040 Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: Delphine
authors.initials: D
authors.lastname: Grivet
authors.affiliation: Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Unité Mixte de Recherche 1202 (Biodiversité Gènes Ecosystèmes; Biogeco), F-33610 Cestas, France University of Bordeaux, Unité Mixte de Recherche 1202 Biogeco, F-33170 Talence, France.
authors.forename: Camille
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Lepoittevin
authors.affiliation: Institute of Biosciences and Bioresources, National Research Council, I-50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Florence, Italy.
authors.forename: Federico
authors.initials: F
authors.lastname: Sebastiani
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Genetics, Forest Research Centre, Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria, E-28040 Madrid, Spain Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Unité Mixte de Recherche 1202 (Biodiversité Gènes Ecosystèmes; Biogeco), F-33610 Cestas, France University of Bordeaux, Unité Mixte de Recherche 1202 Biogeco, F-33170 Talence, France.
authors.forename: Myriam
authors.initials: M
authors.lastname: Heuertz
authors.affiliation: Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Unité Mixte de Recherche 1202 (Biodiversité Gènes Ecosystèmes; Biogeco), F-33610 Cestas, France University of Bordeaux, Unité Mixte de Recherche 1202 Biogeco, F-33170 Talence, France.
authors.forename: Pauline H
authors.initials: PH
authors.lastname: Garnier-Géré
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Genetics, Forest Research Centre, Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria, E-28040 Madrid, Spain.
authors.forename: Ricardo
authors.initials: R
authors.lastname: Alía
authors.affiliation: Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Unité Mixte de Recherche 1202 (Biodiversité Gènes Ecosystèmes; Biogeco), F-33610 Cestas, France University of Bordeaux, Unité Mixte de Recherche 1202 Biogeco, F-33170 Talence, France.
authors.forename: Christophe
authors.initials: C
authors.lastname: Plomion
authors.affiliation: Institute of Biosciences and Bioresources, National Research Council, I-50019 Sesto Fiorentino, Florence, Italy.
authors.forename: Giovanni G
authors.initials: GG
authors.lastname: Vendramin
authors.affiliation: Department of Ecology and Genetics, Forest Research Centre, Instituto Nacional de Investigación y Tecnología Agraria y Alimentaria, E-28040 Madrid, Spain Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland santiago@inia.es.
authors.forename: Santiago C
authors.initials: SC
authors.lastname: González-Martínez
mesh_terms: D000064:Acclimatization / Q000235:genetics*; D057231:Climate Change; D018745:Genome, Plant; D028223:Pinus / Q000235:genetics*; D020641:Polymorphism, Single Nucleotide; D013696:Temperature
keywords: climate adaptation; environmental associations; fitness estimates; genetic lineages; single nucleotide polymorphisms