title: Calibration of skill and judgment in driving: development of a conceptual framework and the implications for road safety.
abstract: Humans often make inflated or erroneous estimates of their own ability or performance. Such errors in calibration can be due to incomplete processing, neglect of available information or due to improper weighing or integration of the information and can impact our decision-making, risk tolerance, and behaviors. In the driving context, these outcomes can have important implications for safety. The current paper discusses the notion of calibration in the context of self-appraisals and self-competence as well as in models of self-regulation in driving. We further develop a conceptual framework for calibration in the driving context borrowing from earlier models of momentary demand regulation, information processing, and lens models for information selection and utilization. Finally, using the model we describe the implications for calibration (or, more specifically, errors in calibration) for our understanding of driver distraction, in-vehicle automation and autonomous vehicles, and the training of novice and inexperienced drivers.
authors.affiliation: Liberty Mutual Research Institute for Safety, 71 Frankland Road, Hopkinton, MA 01748, USA. Electronic address: william.horrey@libertymutual.com.
authors.forename: William J
authors.initials: WJ
authors.lastname: Horrey
authors.affiliation: Liberty Mutual Research Institute for Safety, 71 Frankland Road, Hopkinton, MA 01748, USA. Electronic address: mary.lesch@libertymutual.com.
authors.forename: Mary F
authors.initials: MF
authors.lastname: Lesch
authors.affiliation: VicRoads, 60 Denmark Street, Kew, 3101 VIC, Australia. Electronic address: eve.mitsopoulosrubens@roads.vic.gov.au.
authors.forename: Eve
authors.initials: E
authors.lastname: Mitsopoulos-Rubens
authors.affiliation: Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin, 1513 University Avenue, Madison, WI 53706, USA. Electronic address: jdlee@engr.wisc.edu.
authors.forename: John D
authors.initials: JD
authors.lastname: Lee
mesh_terms: D000063:Accidents, Traffic / Q000517:prevention & control* / Q000523:psychology; D001334:Automobile Driving / Q000523:psychology*; D002138:Calibration; D006801:Humans; D007600:Judgment; D008962:Models, Theoretical; D018570:Risk Assessment; D012449:Safety
keywords: Automation; Calibration; Distraction; Driving; Information selection and utilization; Lens model; Young/novice drivers